Summary of the day: Ukraine is addressing manpower challenges by forming new brigades, but delayed Western weapons deliveries may hinder their full equipment. Meanwhile, Russian forces made advances within easternmost Chasiv Yar, in the Toretsk direction, and near Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces gained ground within Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and southeast of Chasiv Yar. Ukraine conducted a naval drone strike on Russian infrastructure in Novorossiysk and reportedly damaged energy infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast. Putin is leveraging existing Eurasian-focused organizations for his proposed “Eurasian security architecture,” while the Kremlin continues efforts to position Ukraine war veterans in Russian domestic politics.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
President Putin is using existing Russian-led international organizations as the foundation for his proposed “Eurasian security architecture.” Defense Minister Belousov stated that this structure will cover all spheres of activity and is open to all Eurasian countries. He emphasized the importance of organizations like the Russian-Belarusian Union State, Collective Security Treaty Organization, Eurasian Economic Union, Commonwealth of Independent States, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization in creating this new security framework. Putin previously expressed interest in discussing Eurasian security issues with these organizations and BRICS.
President Putin held bilateral meetings with leaders of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states and partners during the SCO summit. These meetings emphasized friendly relations, trade, and energy cooperation, portraying Russia as part of a network of Eurasian economic partners despite Western sanctions. Putin is attempting to create a coalition of friendly states as an alternative to the West and to undermine NATO, particularly focusing on China’s involvement. The meetings included discussions on developing rail infrastructure between Russia and Mongolia to increase trade with China. This effort is part of Putin’s broader strategy to establish a new “Eurasian security architecture” as an alternative to Western-led international structures.
Russia continues to showcase its naval presence in the Western hemisphere to influence Western self-deterrence. On July 2, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that ships from the Northern Fleet, including a frigate and a sea tanker, docked in La Guaira, Venezuela. This follows recent naval activities near Havana, Cuba. Additionally, Russia and Venezuela signed a memorandum to counter “coercive measures,” signaling Kremlin influence in the region and aiming to project a threat of broader geopolitical conflict to deter Western actions regarding Ukraine.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is employing military posturing to align with the Kremlin’s efforts to weaken Western support for Ukraine. On July 2, Lukashenko stated that Belarusian and Russian air forces and air defense units are on “high alert,” and Belarus has positioned Iskander and Polonez missile systems, capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons, at undisclosed locations. He affirmed that Belarus would not initiate military actions, including at the border with Ukraine. On Belarusian Independence Day, July 3, Lukashenko highlighted the Union State’s peak defense readiness, showcasing military ties with the Collective Security Treaty Organization and China during a parade that featured visible Iskander missile systems marked with radiation hazard symbols.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine’s ability to conduct significant counteroffensive operations is crucial to avoid prolonging the war. Putin’s strategy of gradual advances is likely encouraging him to extend the conflict and intensify efforts to destroy Ukrainian statehood. Ukraine needs timely Western security assistance to equip new units and plan future counteroffensives. The longer Ukraine waits for equipment, the more opportunities Russia has to disrupt Ukrainian efforts to concentrate combat power. Consistent and adequate Western aid remains the most likely way to reduce Putin’s commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood and identity.
Russian forces continue conducting sabotage and reconnaissance activities along the Sumy Oblast border. Sumy Oblast Military Administration Head Volodymyr Artyukh reported that Russian groups routinely attempt to cross the border. Ukrainian artillery recently struck small Russian units near Zhuravka, close to the Kursk Oblast border. While there’s no evidence of permanent Russian positions in this area, these activities likely aim to fix Ukrainian forces along a wider front in northeastern Ukraine. Artyukh stated that Russia lacks sufficient forces for large-scale offensives in this area and will likely continue cross-border sabotage and reconnaissance operations.
A Russian milblogger claimed that a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on June 30 might have wounded Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky near Henichesk, Kherson Oblast. However, there is no evidence to support this claim, and it remains unverified by other sources.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces made small advances along Soborna Street in central Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City. Fighting continued near and within Vovchansk, as well as near Hlyboke and Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made small advances southeast of Novoyehorivka, northwest of Kreminna. Russian milbloggers claimed advances into Makiivka and east of Stelmakhivka, but these are unconfirmed. Russian forces continued attacks in multiple locations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, Nevske, Hrekivka, Terny, Torske, and in the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacks in the Siversk direction without confirmed advances. A Russian milblogger claimed breakthroughs near Spirne, but this remains unverified. Fighting continued near Bilohorivka, Spirne, Vyimka, and Ivano-Darivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces advanced within easternmost Chasiv Yar, reportedly seizing the Kanal and Novyi Microraions. A Ukrainian commander and military observer confirmed the loss of Kanal Microraion. Russian forces may soon attack across the Siversky-Donets Donbas Canal into central Chasiv Yar. Fighting continued north, east, and southeast of Chasiv Yar. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces regained some positions southeast of Chasiv Yar, with geolocated footage showing their assault on Russian positions south of Klishchiivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces made significant tactical gains in the Toretsk direction. Geolocated footage confirms Russian advances of over one kilometer towards Druzhba’s eastern outskirts and about 1.8 kilometers along Kalynova Street towards Pivnichne-Druzhba. Russian forces also reportedly entered southeastern Pivnichne. Claims suggest Russian forces advanced to southern Niu-York and parts of Yurivka. Ukrainian sources reported Russian attacks near Niu-York, Zalizne, Pivdenne, Pivnichne, Dyliivka, and Bila Hora. These gains likely occurred over several days rather than within the last 24 hours.
Avdiivka
Russian forces reportedly advanced northwest and west of Avdiivka, but these claims are unconfirmed. Russian sources claimed progress along the T-0511 highway northeast of Prohres and near the Karlivske Reservoir southwest of Yasnobrodivka. Russian forces are reportedly attacking both banks of the Karlivske Reservoir. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian ground attacks in multiple locations north, northwest, and west of Avdiivka. Russian forces are reportedly operating near Sokil, northeast of Avdiivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced west of Donetsk City and continued attacks in the surrounding areas. Confirmed progress was made in central Krasnohorivka, with movements reported along multiple streets. Unconfirmed claims suggest further advances southwest of Donetsk in the Vuhledar area. The Ukrainian General Staff noted Russian military activity near several other local towns on the same day.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area but made no confirmed advances. Claims of progress by Russian milbloggers near Staromayorske and Makarivka lack visual confirmation. The Ukrainian General Staff reported attacks near Urozhaine. Units from the Russian Eastern Military District are active in the area.
Zaporizhia Line
Fighting persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no shifts in the frontline. Russian forces launched ground attacks in multiple locations around Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting occurred on the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky and in the Dnipro River Delta islands.
Ukraine News
Russian forces targeted Ukraine with a series of drone and missile strikes, primarily impacting Dnipro City and causing civilian casualties. Ukrainian officials reported the interception of multiple cruise missiles and drones. The attack in Dnipro resulted in at least four deaths and 53 injuries, with significant damage to a shopping center, residential buildings, and a hospital. Additionally, Russian sources claimed strikes on an airfield near Kryvyi Rih and a defense facility in Dnipro.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s manpower situation has improved, with several new brigades being formed. However, delayed and insufficient Western weapons deliveries are hindering Ukraine’s ability to fully equip these new units. Zelensky emphasized that future counteroffensive operations depend on receiving heavy equipment like tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles. A Ukrainian brigade commander near Chasiv Yar echoed this, stating that ammunition is more needed than manpower. The slow arrival of military equipment is complicating efforts to equip reserve brigades for defensive operations. Timely Western security assistance remains crucial for Ukraine to contest the battlefield initiative and conduct significant counteroffensive operations in the future.
Russia News
Ukraine conducted a naval drone strike against Russian naval infrastructure in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have destroyed three Ukrainian naval drones and repelled others targeting the naval base. Novorossiysk’s mayor confirmed the attack and closed beaches. Ukraine’s Naval Spokesperson has not yet confirmed details of the attack, and there’s no visual evidence of damage to Russian naval targets.
Ukrainian sources reported that a drone strike on July 1 “seriously damaged” the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant (OEMK) in Belgorod Oblast, Russia. The attack reportedly targeted two electrical substations, causing a power outage across the entire facility. OEMK is said to be Russia’s only full-cycle metallurgical enterprise, so this damage could significantly impact Russian metallurgical production. Russian sources confirmed electricity outages near Stary Oskol on July 1, likely resulting from this strike.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Kremlin is integrating Russian veterans who fought in Ukraine into domestic political roles. The ruling United Russia party will nominate 342 war veterans as candidates for regional elections in September 2024. This move is part of the “Time of Heroes” program initiated by President Vladimir Putin in April 2024, designed to train veterans for government positions. This strategy aims to encourage military enlistment by offering compensation and benefits, while also addressing the needs of the veteran community by providing them with official roles.
Russian milbloggers report that commanders are forcing injured soldiers to return to combat. A soldier from the 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade claimed that despite having medical documentation of their injuries, wounded soldiers are being sent to the frontline and threatened with criminal charges if they refuse. Complaints to the military prosecutor’s office have proved ineffective, as the soldier alleges that the office shares complainants’ identities with their brigade commander, who then orders them to participate in assaults. This issue was highlighted in previous criticisms of the treatment of personnel in the same brigade.
Russia’s Allies
Reports suggest Chinese and Russian companies are collaborating to develop a drone like the Iranian Shahed for use in Ukraine. European officials claim prototype testing began in 2024, with plans to ship the drones to Russia soon. The US reportedly believes China is sending drone conversion kits to Russia but not fully built drones. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated Ukraine has no evidence of China providing weapons to Russia but noted Russia’s acquisition of Chinese dual-use goods. US Secretary of State Blinken previously stated that Chinese exports have significantly helped Russia’s defense production. If confirmed, the provision of jointly developed Chinese-Russian drones would mark a significant shift in China-Russia relations and suggest Putin has secured a notable concession from Xi Jinping.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Clint Watts, CEO of Microsoft’s Digital Threat Analysis Center, reported that Russian authorities persist in directing information operations targeted at Western audiences. In an interview published with the Russian opposition outlet Meduza, Watts noted an increased organization of these operations by the Russian Presidential Administration and involvement of the GRU with Russian milbloggers in occupied Ukraine. These operations primarily aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine and resonate with nationalistic sentiments in Europe and the U.S. by promoting traditional values. Additionally, Russian actors frequently disseminate misinformation portraying Ukraine as the aggressor and highlighting its alleged corruption.
Russian milbloggers amplified criticisms made by a Ukrainian official against Ukrainian commanders.
Russian legal authorities are actively accusing, investigating, and sentencing detained Ukrainian military personnel for alleged war crimes prior to the full-scale invasion, reinforcing Kremlin narratives justifying the war in Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org