Summary of the day: Western allies continue providing Ukraine with financial and military aid, including air defense systems, as Russia aims to solidify legal measures to censor foreign entities. Russian milbloggers expanded a “media school” in Kyrgyzstan, likely to boost Kremlin influence in Central Asia. Meanwhile, Danish authorities arrested a Russian-tied individual, reflecting the Kremlin’s intensified hybrid efforts against the West. Notably, Russian forces advanced southeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Avdiivka, while a Russian naval vessel may have been damaged or destroyed in the Barents Sea. Belarusian officials remain implicated in the illegal deportation and “re-education” of Ukrainian children.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Danish authorities arrested a Danish-Russian dual citizen linked to Russian intelligence services. The woman allegedly received funding from a Russian organization closely tied to foreign intelligence for her legal aid clinic catering to Russian speakers. This arrest is likely part of the Kremlin’s intensifying hybrid campaign in the West, which uses “protecting compatriots abroad” as a pretext for potential interference. Russian intelligence aims to leverage diaspora community centers it funds across Europe for hostile activities.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that a tactical strike group from the Northern Fleet, consisting of a nuclear-powered missile submarine and a frigate, is conducting precision missile drills in the Atlantic Ocean.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on June 11 that the country will hold its next presidential elections by July 20, 2025. The previous election in August 2020, which Lukashenko rigged, sparked protests that the Kremlin exploited to increase its influence over Belarus. There are concerns that Russia may attempt to take advantage of any similar unrest that may arise during the 2025 elections.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces reportedly downed two Russian cruise missiles over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Ukraine’s Eastern Air Command. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video claiming to show a strike on a Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft at Dovhyntseve airfield in the same region, but this claim remains unconfirmed by independent sources.
A Russian naval destroyer, the Admiral Levchenko, reportedly caught fire in the Barents Sea, according to Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command Spokesperson on June 10. The spokesperson attributed the fire to sanctions preventing proper maintenance of Russian naval vessels’ engines. However, this report remains unverified by independent sources.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces regained positions southeast of Hlyboke near Lyptsi amid continued fighting in northern Kharkiv Oblast. There were also reports of clashes around Vovchansk and nearby areas in the region as Ukraine likely continues counteroffensive operations.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced southeast of Kupyansk, reportedly seizing some settlements near Kupyansk and Svatove amid continued ground attacks in this area. Fighting also raged in multiple locations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line as Russia likely aims to make further territorial gains.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian sources claimed advances near Siversk, including seizing areas of Bilohorivka and the outskirts of Rozdolivka, though these remain unconfirmed. Fighting continued in the Siversk area, with Russia likely aiming to make further gains, while Ukraine conducted counterattacks to stall Russian efforts.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Chasiv Yar, claiming advances in the eastern Kanal micro district, though gains remain unconfirmed. Fighting raged in the area as Russia likely aims to capture Chasiv Yar amid continued Ukrainian resistance. Russian troops also attacked near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka around Chasiv Yar.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced northwest of Avdiivka, reportedly capturing Novooleksandrivka and making marginal gains near other settlements in the area amid continued offensive operations. However, Ukrainian forces maintained positions in parts of Novooleksandrivka. Observers warned of potential further Russian advances if more troops are committed to this direction. Intense fighting raged around Avdiivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces launched attacks near the settlements of Heorhiivka (west of Donetsk City), and Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane (southwest of Donetsk City). However, no confirmed territorial changes were reported. A Russian military blogger claimed advances within southwestern Krasnohorivka, west of Donetsk City, but this report remains unconfirmed by other sources.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces reportedly advanced up to 300 meters in northeastern Staromayorske and several hundred meters in Urozhaine, both located south of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. However, these claims by Russian military bloggers remain unconfirmed by independent sources, and no definitive changes to the frontline have been verified.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces engaged in limited combat in western Zaporizhia Oblast, attacking near several settlements surrounding Robotyne, but no confirmed territorial changes were reported. According to a Ukrainian Volunteer Army spokesperson, Russian troops struggle to make significant advances due to Ukrainian drone usage, which provides high battlefield visibility. The spokesperson suggested that Russian operations in this area are more focused on creating an appearance of victory rather than achieving decisive tactical or operational gains. Russian sources have also expressed frustration with Ukrainian drone interference in this sector.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Combat persisted near Krynky on the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, but no verified changes to the frontline were reported.
Ukraine News
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced at the Ukraine Restoration Conference in Berlin that Russian strikes have severely damaged Ukraine’s electricity generation, destroying 80% of thermal and one-third of hydroelectric capacity. The attacks in 2024 destroyed nine gigawatts of energy generation capacity, while peak consumption in the previous winter was 18 gigawatts. Zelensky outlined plans to generate up to one gigawatt of gas-fired power by the end of 2024 and four more in the coming years, but an advisor to Ukraine’s Energy Minister cautioned that these targets might be unrealistic due to limited equipment manufacturers.
Ukraine’s Allies
Western allies continue supplying Ukraine with substantial military aid focused on air defense systems. Estonia will send man-portable Mistral air defense missiles. The EU will transfer $3.6 billion to Ukraine, with most allocated for defense. Germany promised to deliver Patriot, IRIS-T systems, anti-aircraft guns, missiles and ammo. The U.S. approved sending another Patriot battery, which could reach Ukraine’s frontlines within days.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Belarusian officials continue to be involved in the illegal deportation and re-education of Ukrainian children. On June 10, a Russian-Belarusian organization met with 32 children from occupied Melitopol during an “educational trip” to Minsk, focusing on “patriotic education” that aligns with the Kremlin’s narrative of World War II. The U.S. Department of State and Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab confirmed in November 2023 that Belarusian officials, including President Alexander Lukashenko, are directly involved in Russia’s systematic deportation and re-education campaign targeting Ukrainian children.
Russian officials and media personalities persist in using summer camps and “patriotic education” programs to deport Ukrainian children to Russia. The Kremlin-appointed Commissioner on Children’s Rights promoted a summer camp in Voronezh Oblast for children from occupied Donetsk Oblast, framing it as a chance to escape the war zone. Reports also indicate that children from occupied Luhansk Oblast were sent to a sports and fitness camp in Kaluga Oblast, while a Russian media project organized a program in Smolensk Oblast for teenagers from occupied Ukraine, Belarus, and Abkhazia to learn basic military skills and develop a “love” for Russia. These incidents align with Russia’s ongoing campaign of deportation and re-education of Ukrainian children.
Russia News
Russia advances new repressive laws to broadly censor foreign entities. One bill allows labeling any foreign organization as “undesirable,” expanding beyond just NGOs. Participating in “undesirable” groups could bring criminal penalties. Authorities also proposed prosecuting foreigners for “Russophobia” under extremism laws. These moves enable the Kremlin to suppress critics and opposition under vague pretexts.
The former head of Russia’s Military Academy, Grigory Molchanov, was appointed as a Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council. This is the first new appointment to the Security Council since Sergei Shoigu became its Secretary in May. The Security Council now has eight deputy secretaries under Shoigu.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A BBC Russian Service investigation published revealed that Russia’s extensive penal recruitment campaign for the war in Ukraine led to a sharp decline in prison populations, forcing some penal colonies to close. The combined population of 27 penal colonies dropped from 15,182 on January 1, 2023, to 12,530 on January 1, 2024. Krasnoyarsk Krai was particularly affected, with Wagner recruiting over 2,800 prisoners from the region, resulting in the complete closure of three penal colonies and partial closure of two others.
Russian vehicle manufacturer Remdizel has started producing an updated version of the Z-STS “Akhmat” armored vehicle, incorporating feedback from soldiers using it in Ukraine, according to the company’s director. Mass production of the improved vehicle is set to begin in 2025.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The prominent pro-Kremlin Russian milblogger channel Rybar opened a “media school” in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Rybar framed this as an effort to boost Russia’s influence in the Central Asian information space. The school aims to train local media workers on using multimedia and social platforms like Telegram to promote pro-Russian narratives. Rybar had previously established a similar “school” in the Balkans. This likely supports the Kremlin’s broader push to expand its informational influence abroad through coopted influencers.
During a Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee meeting, FSB Head Alexander Bortnikov repeated the baseless Kremlin narrative accusing Ukraine and NATO of organizing terror attacks against Russia, including the March 22 Crocus City Hall incident. Despite no evidence of Ukrainian involvement and assessments pointing to the Islamic State’s Afghan affiliate as the perpetrator, Bortnikov falsely implicated Ukrainian intelligence in the attack. The Kremlin routinely uses such accusations to undermine Western support for Ukraine and portray itself as a victim of aggression.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org