Summary of the Day:
Russian forces have reportedly made advancements near Kupyansk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne, as they continue to seek technological parity with Ukrainian forces. In a notable development, Russian troops are allegedly using illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve their combat coordination and the effectiveness of their tactical reconnaissance strike complex (TRSC). This move appears to be part of a broader strategy to match Ukrainian technological capabilities.
Reports have emerged of a potential air combat incident, with a Russian milblogger claiming that a Ukrainian F-16 downed a Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft. However, this claim remains unverified. Meanwhile, Russian forces are reportedly facing difficulties in conducting effective counterbattery fires, which could impact their defensive capabilities.
In a separate incident, unknown actors opened fire on personnel of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs’ Center for Combating Extremism in Nazran, Republic of Ingushetia, on October 11. This event highlights ongoing security challenges within Russian territories.
On the international front, Indian enterprises are reportedly increasing exports of dual-use technologies to Russia, partially facilitated by large Russian reserves of rupees from oil sales to India. This development is raising concerns about the global supply chain’s role in the ongoing conflict.
Picture of the Day:
A dog is seen near ruins at a home in the aftermath of a Russian airstrike on the city of Zaporizhzhia. The attack injured four people, including an11-year-old girl. (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The Path to Peace
President Zelensky will soon reveal his “victory plan” for Ukraine to the public. The plan, already shared with some Western leaders, aims to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position and push Russia towards a just peace. It includes military and diplomatic components, such as Ukraine’s NATO invitation. While some details will remain classified to prevent information leaks to Russia, the plan is designed to boost Ukraine’s firepower and potentially lift restrictions on long-range missile strikes. Presidential advisors Podolyak and Yermak have emphasized the importance of this strategy in pressuring Russia and advancing Ukraine’s position in the ongoing conflict.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russia won’t end the war in Ukraine until Ukraine gives up and stops seeking NATO membership.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are reportedly using illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve their combat coordination and tactical capabilities in Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers near Novohrodivka and in the Pokrovsk area have observed an increase in Starlink terminals at Russian positions since September 2024. This development has reportedly enhanced Russian communication and precision in tactical strikes, potentially contributing to recent gains such as the capture of Vuhledar. The use of Starlink terminals appears to be part of a Russian effort to achieve technological parity with Ukrainian forces, who have previously held an advantage in this area.
A Russian military blogger reported that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet allegedly shot down a Russian Su-34 aircraft in an unspecified location. While some sources claim the Su-34 was lost due to technical issues or pilot error, a Russian Telegram channel asserts it was downed by a Ukrainian F-16 while dropping bombs about 50 kilometers from the frontline. This claim cannot be independently verified, but if true, it would be the first instance of a Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Russian manned aircraft. The incident has sparked debate among Russian military commentators about the potential threat posed by Ukrainian F-16s and the state of Russian air forces.
Russian forces are reportedly facing challenges in conducting timely counterbattery fire against Ukrainian artillery. A Russian military blogger noted that Ukrainian artillery often remains in the same position for days, even after being identified, due to slow Russian response times. The blogger cited delays of up to several weeks in Russian counterbattery actions, allowing Ukrainian forces to relocate. Lancet drones were mentioned as the only effective Russian countermeasure, but their use is limited by competing priorities.
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian fuel depot near Rovenky in occupied Luhansk Oblast setting it ablaze. This is part of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign targeting Russian oil infrastructure, which aims to hinder the Russian military and weaken its economy. Similar recent attacks include the Marine Oil Terminal in Crimea and a depot in Russia’s Rostov Oblast. While these strikes have caused significant fires and disruptions, they are not expected to collapse Russia’s oil sector entirely.
Two Russian MiG-31K jets capable of carrying Kinzhal ballistic missiles were transferred to Belarus’ Machulishchy airfield on October 10. This move may be Russia’s attempt to protect its limited number of MiG-31s from Ukrainian strikes on Russian airfields. The jets can launch attacks on Ukraine from Belarus and return safely. Despite recent losses from Ukrainian drone strikes, Russia can still replenish its fleet. The presence of these jets in Belarus puts all of Ukraine at risk due to their speed and missile range. Experts speculate this could signal preparations for a major attack on Ukraine, possibly targeting energy infrastructure. Only Patriot and SAMP/T air defense systems can intercept Kinzhal missiles.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported changes in Belarusian forces along the Ukrainian border. A tank company and support units from the 355th Tank Battalion were moved from their operational area to an unspecified location between October 3-6. Despite these movements, an invasion by Belarusian forces remains highly unlikely.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces claim to have recaptured nearly two dozen settlements in Kursk Oblast following a Ukrainian incursion. Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov stated that Russian troops have retaken 19 settlements, though he did not name them. Ukrainian officials report that their forces have partially regained some lost positions amid intensified Russian counterattacks. Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko of Ukraine’s Center of Countering Disinformation noted continued Russian assaults in the area. While the exact number of settlements involved remains unclear, the situation in Kursk Oblast appears to be fluid with both sides reporting some territorial gains.
Russian sources report ongoing efforts to push Ukrainian forces out of Glushkovsky Raion in Kursk Oblast. Russian airborne units allegedly launched counterattacks, claiming to have pushed Ukrainian forces from Obukhovka and Veseloye towards Novy Put on the international border. Ukrainian forces reportedly still hold positions near Novy Put, Obod, and Medvezhye, though Russians claim to have cleared the Medvezhye area. Russian milbloggers suggest continued clearing operations in forest areas near the Sumy Oblast border. Some speculate that Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing to more advantageous positions ahead of the rainy season, while also transferring additional reserves to the area.
Russian sources claim continued advances in Kursk Oblast’s Korenevsky and Sudzhansky Raions. They report Russian forces clearing territory near Kremyanoye and Olgovka, with troops allegedly reaching central Olgovka. In the Sudzha area, Russian naval infantry and airborne units reportedly advanced to the outskirts of Sudzha and entered several nearby settlements, including Novoivanovka, Tolsty Lug, and Lyubimovka. Russian forces also claim successes near Malaya Loknya and in eastern Sudzhansky Raion. Ongoing attacks are reported near Darino, Plekhovo, and Sverdilkovo, with Russians allegedly repelling Ukrainian counterattacks in some areas. These claims have not been independently verified.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Tykhe, northeast of Kharkiv City with no confirmed frontline changes. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast has slowed Russian operations near Vovchansk due to troop redeployments. Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction reportedly lack sufficient personnel for significant offensives. Various Russian units have reportedly moved to Kursk Oblast.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have recently made advances southeast of Kupyansk, with confirmed progress south of Stepova Novoselivka. Ongoing offensive operations continue along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian assaults have been reported in multiple areas, including near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Novoosynove, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Pishchane, Myasozharivka, Vyshneve, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Katerynivka, Terny, Zarichne, and Torske.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched offensive operations near Siversk. They targeted areas around Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka, and Vyimka. However, no confirmed territorial gains were reported from these attacks.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked areas near Chasiv Yar targeting Kalynivka, Ivanivske, and Stupochky. No confirmed advances were made. A Ukrainian commander reported that Russian troops mainly use infantry assaults, sometimes supported by armored vehicles and motorcycles. Russian airstrikes focus on rear areas rather than frontline positions.
Toretsk
Ukrainian officials provided conflicting reports about Russian control in Toretsk. While one official claimed Russia controls 50-60% of the town, another clarified that Russian forces only hold the eastern part. Visual evidence suggests Russian occupation of at least 38% of Toretsk. Intense urban combat continues in the area, with a more fluid frontline compared to other regions.
Russian forces continued attacks near Toretsk targeting areas including Dachne, Dyliivka, Nelipivka, Shcherbynivka, and Petrivka. Russian sources claimed advances northwest of Niu York and within Toretsk itself, but these claims lack visual confirmation. No confirmed territorial gains were reported from these operations.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces attacked in the Pokrovsk area targeting multiple settlements including Myrnohrad, Selydove, and Novohrodivka. Russian sources claimed advances near Krasnyi Yar and Selydove, but these remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked northwest of Novohrodivka. No confirmed territorial changes were reported from these operations.
A Ukrainian military observer claimed the Russian Central Grouping of Forces has about 15,000 reserve personnel. Russian forces have heavily used operational reserves to maintain their offensive in the Pokrovsk direction, likely depleting a significant portion. These reserves have typically been used to reinforce existing units rather than as a cohesive force for breakthrough or exploitation operations. This approach is expected to contribute to the culmination of Russia’s Summer 2024 offensive in the coming months due to reserve exhaustion.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked near Kurakhove on October 11-12, focusing on Maksymilyanivka and Heorhiivka. A Russian source claimed a 1.5 km advance near Maksymilyanivka, but this is unconfirmed. Ukrainian sources reported 20 Russian glide bomb strikes and the use of helicopters in the area. Russian units are reportedly active in the region, with claims of capturing Ostrivske. No confirmed territorial gains were reported.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made a small advance northwest of Vodyane, southwest of Donetsk City. They continued attacks near several settlements in the area, including Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka. Russian sources claimed to have struck a key Ukrainian supply bridge in Yelyzavetivka. Russian special forces and motorized rifle units are reportedly active in the region near Vuhledar and Bohoyavlenka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces attacked several settlements in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts. The attacks focused on Rivnopil, Novoukrainka, Novodarivka, Levadne, and Olhivske, all located southwest of Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces are reportedly active near Pryyutne in the same area.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces made a recent advance northwest of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast. They continued attacks near Robotyne. A Russian source claimed offensive operations near Kamyanske, noting logistical challenges due to the nearby reservoir. Russian drone operators are reportedly active in the Kamyanske area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched attacks in the Dnipro direction, likely referring to areas in eastern Kherson Oblast and islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
Russia launched missile and drone attacks against Ukraine. They fired a missile from Belgorod and 28 drones from Kursk and Krasnodar. Ukrainian forces shot down 24 drones over several oblasts, with two more disabled by electronic warfare. Two drones fell in Mykolaiv Oblast. Russian tactics have shifted from targeting critical infrastructure to suspected military targets, often hitting agricultural facilities. Sumy City experienced missile strikes on civilian infrastructure.
The Kyiv Independent’s documentary “He Came Back,” which exposes sexual crimes during Russian occupation in Kyiv and Kherson oblasts in 2022, won Best Film at the Press Play Prague film festival. The film reveals that Ukrainian authorities have documented 292 cases of sexual violence by Russian soldiers, likely an underestimate. Two survivors shared their stories, and the journalists identified the perpetrators and their commanders. The documentary team, led by Olesia Bida, used undercover work to reconstruct one crime in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 3 INJURIES: 14
Russian forces attacked villages in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. Strikes on Bohoiavlenka, near Vuhledar, killed two civilians. Another attack on Ivanopillia, near Chasiv Yar, killed one person. Eight others were injured in these attacks.
Russian forces heavily attacked Zaporizhzhia Oblast, launching 425 strikes across 11 areas. Overnight attacks on Zaporizhzhia city damaged homes and businesses, injuring three people, including a young girl.
Russian shelling in Kherson Oblast injured three people and damaged buildings and infrastructure. In Kherson city, a large fire erupted overnight at a warehouse and waste storage site due to shelling. Firefighters extinguished the blaze by the morning.
Firefighters extinguish a blaze at a warehouse and waste production storage unit overnight in Kherson, Ukraine. (Emergency Services of Ukraine/ Telegram)
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukraine and France are working to establish joint defense production facilities, President Zelensky announced. This follows Zelensky’s recent visit to Paris and is part of Ukraine’s efforts to attract foreign investment in its industrial sector. The initiative is inspired by Denmark’s model of direct arms purchases from Ukrainian defense industries. While details are not yet specified, Ukraine’s defense and strategic industries ministries are tasked with implementing the agreements. This development comes as Ukraine aims to boost its domestic ammunition and drone production while still relying on foreign support for its defense needs.
Russia News
On October 11, unknown attackers targeted personnel of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs’ Center for Combating Extremism in Nazran, Ingushetia. The deputy head, Adam Khamkhoev, was the apparent target but was not injured. Three people, including one of Khamkhoev’s guards, were killed. This marks the fifth assassination attempt on Khamkhoev. The incident may be linked to ongoing tensions involving Sufi groups and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who recently declared a “blood feud” against legislators from Dagestan and Ingushetia. Separately, a gas explosion occurred at a station in Grozny, Chechnya.
Serbia has signed an agreement with Russia’s Gazprom for additional gas supplies this winter, despite efforts to diversify its energy sources. Serbian state company Srbijagas expects to receive 400 million cubic meters of Russian gas under an existing three-year deal signed in May 2022. Serbia remains heavily dependent on Russian gas, consuming about 2.5 billion cubic meters annually, with Gazprom providing around 2 billion. While Serbia is exploring alternative options, including deals with Azerbaijan and plans for new pipelines connecting to Greece and Romania, it continues to maintain strong energy ties with Russia.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1300
668930 |
Tanks +9
8971 |
Artillery +29
19410 |
Arm. VEH +49
17876 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities arrested Aleksandr Svistunov, head of the Knyagininskaya Sewing Factory, for bribing a former Defense Ministry official in 2017. Svistunov allegedly paid Vladimir Demchik, the former head of the ministry’s clothing department, 4 million rubles for contracts worth over 574 million rubles. Demchik was previously arrested in August 2024. The factory had completed nearly 40 contracts with the Defense Ministry and other agencies between 2017 and 2020.
Russia’s Allies
Indian companies are reportedly increasing exports of dual-use technologies to Russia, making India the second-largest supplier after China. U.S. and European officials claim that monthly Indian exports of these technologies doubled to $60 million in April and May 2024, reaching $95 million in July. About one-fifth of sensitive technologies imported by Russia’s defense industry reportedly come through India. This trade increase is partly facilitated by Russia’s large reserves of Indian rupees from oil sales to India. The situation contrasts with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Ukraine, where he emphasized international law principles. Reports of Indian artillery shells reaching Ukraine through European intermediaries have also reportedly strained Russian-Indian relations.
Belarus and Russia recently agreed to strengthen their defense industry partnership. During meetings in Izhevsk, Russia on October 8-9, delegations from both countries discussed developing closer strategic ties. They also visited a Russian drone manufacturer and an electromechanical plant. This cooperation aims to enhance their military-industrial capabilities.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko approved an agreement with Russia to produce the “Osvey” light aircraft at Belarus’s 558th Aircraft Repair Plant. This agreement, originally made in April 2024, furthers military cooperation between the two countries.
Iran has sent two domestically-made satellites, Kowsar and Hodhod, to Russia for launch. Kowsar is designed for imaging and environmental monitoring, while Hodhod aims to provide communications in remote areas. This collaboration between Iran and Russia, both under U.S. sanctions, has raised concerns among U.S. officials about potential military applications, particularly regarding Ukraine and the Middle East. Iran recently conducted its own satellite launch, amid accusations of supplying Russia with ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine, which Iran denies.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian officials are accusing Ukraine of using chemical weapons, with Ambassador Dmitry Feoktistov claiming on October 10 that Ukraine violates the Chemical Weapons Convention. He alleged Ukraine uses these weapons against civilians and plans false-flag operations with NATO. However, Ukraine reports that Russian forces have systematically used chemical agents since February 2023, with 4,228 recorded instances as of September 24. These conflicting claims highlight ongoing information warfare in the conflict.
The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported that Russian media is increasingly criticizing Ukraine’s mobilization efforts as unfair and unlawful. However, these same sources remain silent about Russia’s own mobilization issues. This appears to be part of a broader Russian propaganda effort to undermine Ukrainian military recruitment while avoiding discussion of similar problems in Russia.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com