As Moscow Prepares for Protracted War and Ukrainian Forces Counter-Attack, Train Derailment in Bryansk Oblast Kills Seven Amid ‘Unlawful Interference’
Summary of the Day – May 31, 2025
Russia abandoned diplomatic pretense as Defense Committee Chairman Kartapolov openly threatened Ukraine would lose six major cities if Kyiv refused peace settlement, while Putin signed a decree allowing government seizure of defense enterprises during martial law. Ukrainian forces counter-attacked near Vovchansk and Toretsk as Russian forces captured Novopil and made gains near Lyman. A passenger train derailed in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast killing seven in suspected sabotage, while Ukraine evacuated 11 more villages in Sumy Oblast amid mounting Russian pressure.
A view of the damage following Russian attacks with KAB guided aerial bombs in a residential area of Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast. (Jose Colon/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Kremlin’s Territorial Maximalism: Six Cities Under Threat
Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov delivered Moscow’s starkest territorial demands yet, openly threatening that Ukraine risks losing six major cities if it refuses a peace settlement.
“Ukraine risks losing Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv cities if Ukraine refuses a peace settlement,” Kartapolov told Kremlin newswire TASS on May 31. He claimed that “every day that Ukraine delays a diplomatic solution to the war worsens the conditions for Ukraine.”
Emergency crews battle a blaze at a residential building in the Nikopol area following a Russian attack, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Serhii Lysak/Telegram)
The statement reveals Russia’s territorial ambitions extend far beyond the four oblasts Moscow has illegally declared as annexed — Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Russia notably did not occupy Zaporizhzhia City when the Kremlin annexed Zaporizhia Oblast in September 2022, yet Kartapolov’s threat suggests Moscow may illegally declare Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts annexed if Russian forces manage to seize these regional centers.
The threats align with Russian officials’ previous calls for Russia to seize Sumy City, claims that Kharkiv and Odesa cities are “Russian” cities, and increasing rhetoric about Russia’s alleged historical ties to “Novorossiya” — which Russian officials have defined as all of eastern and southern Ukraine.
Kartapolov’s statement indicates that the Kremlin continues to assess that Russian forces will be able to fight a protracted war against Ukraine to achieve these territorial goals and is not interested in good-faith negotiations to achieve a diplomatic settlement. The threats came as Russia maintains a theory of victory assuming the Russian military will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely.
Putin’s Martial Law Decree: Preparing for Total War
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 30 allowing the Russian government to revoke the rights of shareholders of defense industrial enterprises in the event that companies fail to fulfill state defense orders during martial law.
The decree enables the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade to appoint a management company to act as the sole executive body of enterprises in order to fulfill contractual obligations to the Russian government. The measure applies to civilian aviation and shipbuilding companies, military development and production companies, and government subcontractors.
Putin is likely setting legal conditions to allow the Russian government to commandeer elements of Russia’s economy and defense industrial base should the Kremlin introduce full martial law in order to transition the country to a full wartime footing. The decree represents continued efforts to prepare Russian society and economy for a protracted war in Ukraine, indicating that Russia is not interested in engaging in good faith negotiations to reach a diplomatic settlement.
The timing of the decree, coinciding with Kartapolov’s territorial threats, suggests Moscow is preparing for an extended conflict while positioning itself to seize control of key economic sectors if needed.
Ukrainian Counter-Attacks: Forces Strike Back Near Key Cities
Ukrainian forces demonstrated their continued offensive capabilities with confirmed advances in multiple directions, countering Russian pressure across the front.
Kharkiv Direction Success: Geolocated footage published on May 30 shows Ukrainian forces advanced north of Starytsya, northeast of Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces engaged Russian troops conducting offensive operations near Starytsya and Vovchansk on May 30 and 31.
A deputy commander of a Ukrainian artillery battalion operating in the Kharkiv direction reported that Russian forces are using Lancet loitering munitions less often but have significantly increased their use of first-person view (FPV) drones with fiber optic cables. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces occupy most of Vovchansk, but independent assessment indicates Russian forces occupy only about 20 percent of the settlement.
Toretsk Breakthrough: Ukrainian forces achieved advances west of Popiv Yar, northwest of Toretsk, according to geolocated footage published on May 31. However, Russian forces simultaneously advanced east of Dachne, north of Toretsk, indicating intense fighting for control of approaches to this strategic city.
Zaporizhzhia Gains: Ukrainian forces advanced south of Kamyanske, southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia, with geolocated footage confirming the gains on May 30. The head of intelligence in a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Zaporizhzhia direction reported that Russian forces continue deploying small infantry groups of two to three soldiers to attack mainly at dusk or dawn.
These counter-attacks demonstrate Ukrainian forces’ ability to maintain offensive momentum despite facing intensified Russian pressure across multiple fronts.
Russian Advances Continue: Novopil Falls as Pressure Mounts
Russian forces achieved several confirmed territorial gains on May 31, with the most significant being the capture of Novopil in the Velyka Novosilka direction.
Novopil Captured: Geolocated footage published on May 31 shows elements of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment raising a Russian flag in central Novopil, southwest of Velyka Novosilka, confirming the settlement’s capture. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that elements of the Russian 5th Combined Arms Army seized Novopil.
Lyman Direction Gains: Russian forces advanced in central Lypove, north of Lyman, according to geolocated footage published on May 30. Russian forces continued attacks north of Lyman near Ridkodub and Zelena Dolyna and toward Karpivka and Novyi Myr.
Kurakhove Pressure: Russian forces advanced in eastern Oleksiivka, west of Kurakhove, with geolocated footage published on May 30 confirming the gains. Russian forces conducted offensive operations west of Kurakhove near Andriivka, Oleksiivka, Kostyantynopil, and Bahatyr, with Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacking near Bahatyr and Odradne.
Russian milbloggers claimed additional unconfirmed advances near the northern outskirts of Kupyansk, advances east of Zelene Pole southwest of Velyka Novosilka, and 500 meters toward Fedorivka northwest of Velyka Novosilka.
Sumy Oblast Crisis: Mass Evacuation as Russian Buildup Continues
Ukrainian authorities ordered the mandatory evacuation of 11 additional villages in Sumy Oblast on May 31, bringing the total number of settlements under evacuation orders to 213.
Governor Oleh Hryhorov signed the evacuation order citing the “constant threat to civilian life” caused by ongoing Russian shelling. The evacuated settlements include Horobivka, Shtanivka, Voronivka, Yanchenky, Tsymbalivka, Shkurativka, Krovne, Mykolaivka, Rudnivka, Spaske, and Kapitanivka.
“Russia continues its terror of the borderlands, and our shared task is to save every life,” Hryhorov stated. “I urge residents not to delay the decision to evacuate. Staying in a zone of constant danger is a direct threat to your life and health.”
The evacuations come as Ukrainian officials and military analysts warn of a possible new Russian offensive targeting the region. State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko confirmed that Russia had amassed “sufficient forces” in neighboring Kursk Oblast to potentially launch an incursion into Sumy.
Russian forces recently captured four border villages — Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka — while President Zelensky said Moscow is concentrating 50,000 troops near Sumy Oblast in a bid to create a 10-kilometer buffer zone. Putin had ordered his military to create a “security buffer zone” along the border on May 22.
Bryansk Train Derailment: Seven Dead in Suspected Sabotage
At least seven people died and 69 others were injured when a passenger train derailed in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast overnight on May 31, following the collapse of an overhead road bridge in what authorities called “unlawful interference in transport operations.”
The train, numbered 86, was traveling from the town of Klimovo in Bryansk Oblast to Moscow when the incident occurred around 10:45 p.m. local time. A total of 379 people were on board at the time of derailment, with 44 people hospitalized and three children among the injured.
Preliminary reports suggest explosions were heard in the Vygonichsky district of Bryansk Oblast ahead of the impact. Moscow Railways, a subsidiary of state-run Russian Railways, claimed the bridge collapsed due to “unlawful interference in transport operations,” though no further information was provided about the cause.
Purported image of a train derailment in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast overnight following a bridge collapse. At least seven people were killed and another 69 injured in the incident, Russian officials claim. (ASTRA/Telegram)
Photos and videos posted on social media show significant damage to the train after impact with the bridge. At least three children were injured, with one being treated in hospital with serious injuries, while the train’s conductor was killed.
Bryansk Oblast borders Ukraine’s Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts and has been the target of various Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian intelligence agencies and partisan movements have previously conducted sabotage attacks on Russian railways, disrupting military cargo transport toward the front line, though there was no immediate indication of involvement in this derailment.
Syrskyi’s Strategic Assessment: 34,000 Russian Casualties in May
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian forces have ramped up assault operations across key fronts in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts while suffering massive casualties.
“Russian troops have notably increased activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction, where they are conducting active offensive actions,” Syrskyi said following a strategic meeting assessing military operations in May. According to Ukrainian military leadership, over 34,000 Russian personnel were killed in May alone.
Syrskyi highlighted that Ukrainian artillery, aviation, and drone systems have been targeting enemy units “even before they reach our positions.” While Russia’s main efforts remain concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Lyman fronts in Donetsk Oblast, as well as in northeastern Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia has seen an uptick in escalation.
Ukrainian forces are reinforcing high-risk areas with reserves and intensifying firepower to repel attacks. In cross-border operations, Ukraine struck 58 military targets deep inside Russian territory in May using long-range DeepStrike systems, including defense industry facilities producing explosive materials and combat drones.
Fighting continues on the Kursk front, where Russia has deployed elite units initially intended for operations in eastern Ukraine. Despite Moscow’s claims on April 26 of completing operations to “liberate” Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian military officials dismissed Russian claims and said some areas remained under their control.
Air Campaign Intensifies: 114 Drones and Missiles Target Ukraine
Russian forces conducted a massive aerial assault on Ukraine during the night of May 30-31, launching 114 drones and missiles across the country in attacks that killed at least 10 people and injured 32 others.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from Belgorod Oblast airspace, two jet-powered drones (possibly Dan-M models) from Belgorod Oblast, two S-300 interceptors from Kursk Oblast, and 107 Shahed and decoy drones from multiple directions including Kursk City, Millerovo in Rostov Oblast, Shatalovo in Smolensk Oblast, Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Cape Chauda in Crimea.
Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 69 drones and three Kh-59/69 missiles using conventional air defense systems, while 30 drones were “lost” or suppressed by electronic warfare systems. The strikes targeted civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, and Donetsk oblasts.
Regional Impact:
- Kharkiv Oblast: Six people injured across Kharkiv city and nine surrounding settlements, with attacks involving 26 Shahed drones, 11 unguided rockets, and guided aerial bombs
- Kherson Oblast: Three killed and 10 injured as Russia targeted over 30 towns and villages with drones, artillery, and airstrikes
- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: One child killed and another injured in Dolynka village, with Russian forces launching 628 strikes across 24 settlements
- Donetsk Oblast: Five civilians killed and nine injured
- Sumy Oblast: One person died in hospital from earlier injuries, bringing casualties to at least one dead and four wounded
Zelensky’s Diplomatic Skepticism: No Russian Memorandum Received
President Zelensky expressed continued skepticism about the June 2 Istanbul peace talks, emphasizing that Russia still has not provided the promised negotiations memorandum.
“We don’t have it, Turkey doesn’t have it, the United States doesn’t have it, and neither do our other partners,” Zelensky said in his evening video address. “At this point, it looks far from serious.”
Zelensky noted that Ukraine is actively preparing diplomatic initiatives in coordination with European and American partners. “We are currently preparing new diplomatic steps together with our European partners and, very importantly, with our partners in the United States,” he said. “We’re in constant communication with everyone who can make diplomacy meaningful.”
The president reiterated Ukraine’s commitment to pursuing a meaningful ceasefire: “Of course, everyone in the world wants diplomacy to work and for an actual ceasefire to take place. Everyone wants Russia to stop playing games with diplomacy and end the war.”
“We want a serious peace — and Russia must agree to that. That should be the agenda of the meetings. We have already presented our agenda. We hope the American side will be decisive on the issue of sanctions to help bring peace closer,” he added.
NATO Expansion Debate: Alliance Rejects Russian Demands
NATO officials confirmed the alliance is not holding any active discussions on Russia’s demand to halt eastward expansion, despite Moscow’s attempts to make this a central condition for ending the war.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, NATO officials told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the issue of NATO’s potential non-enlargement has not been raised at any recent alliance meetings. One official called it “perhaps just an academic discussion,” noting that any such decision would require full consensus among NATO members.
The clarification comes after Reuters reported that Putin’s conditions for ending the war include receiving a written commitment from Western leaders to cease NATO’s expansion. According to NATO sources, the written pledge Moscow demands is unrealistic, with one diplomat stating “It’s not something they can just get.”
Sources referenced international agreements that enshrine every nation’s right to freely choose its alliances, including the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949, the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, and the 1975 Helsinki Final Act. The NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997 also affirms respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states.
U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg had described NATO’s eastward expansion as a “fair” concern for Putin in a May 29 interview, while emphasizing that Ukraine’s membership in the alliance is “not on the table.”
European Defense Reality Check: Admitting Trump May Abandon Ukraine
European officials drafting proposals for a Ukraine peacekeeping force acknowledged that Europe must “get real” about the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump abandoning support for Kyiv, according to the Telegraph.
Senior European diplomats meeting in The Hague agreed to shift focus from deploying troops to enforce a ceasefire to preparing long-term strategies for supporting Ukraine without American backing. “Let’s get real and admit the U.S. will never be on board,” the Telegraph quoted a Western official.
The United Kingdom and France previously led efforts to form a “coalition of the willing,” a deterrence force to be deployed in the event of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. While over 30 countries have expressed interest, only a few have publicly committed to deploying troops.
The discussions centered on how to maintain support “when we assume that the U.S. would only continue providing some specific assets, such as intelligence.” Talks also touched on increasing economic pressure on Russia and inviting President Zelensky to the June NATO summit in The Hague, despite concerns about Trump’s resistance to Ukraine joining the alliance.
British Defense Review: Russia Named “Immediate and Pressing” Threat
The United Kingdom labeled Russia as an “immediate and pressing” threat in a major strategic defense review set to be published, highlighting the danger posed by Moscow and drawing lessons from its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The 130-page review, prepared by a panel including former NATO Secretary-General George Robertson, comes at a time of heightened concern across Europe over potential expanded conflict. British and French forces have already committed to leading a multinational “reassurance force” of up to 30,000 troops in Ukraine should a ceasefire be reached.
Alongside Russia, the review identifies China as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge,” noting Beijing’s growing ties with Moscow and its role in supplying critical components for Russian weapons systems. President Zelensky reportedly said that China stopped shipping drones to Ukraine and its European partners while continuing to supply them to Russia.
The review addresses broader global threats posed by a “deadly quartet”: Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, who are increasingly collaborating across multiple domains. The report also references the shrinking size of the British Army, which has dropped below 71,000 active-duty troops — its lowest strength since the Napoleonic era.
Russian Losses Mount: 987,330 Troops Lost Since Invasion
As of May 31, Russia has lost 987,330 troops since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including 1,250 troops over the past day, according to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Russian equipment losses included:
- 22,652 armored fighting vehicles (five destroyed on May 31)
- 50,198 vehicles and fuel tanks (109 destroyed)
- 28,475 artillery systems (54 destroyed)
- 38,215 drones (145 destroyed)
- 10,867 tanks (two destroyed)
- 1,400 multiple launch rocket systems (two destroyed)
- 1,173 anti-aircraft systems (one destroyed)
- 372 airplanes, 336 helicopters, 28 ships and boats, one submarine
The General Staff recorded 173 clashes across the front on Friday, May 30, indicating continued high-intensity fighting along multiple axes.
OPEC+ Production Surge: Oil Prices Hit Four-Year Low
OPEC+ decided to boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and driving crude prices to a four-year low despite Russian objections.
Key producers, including Saudi Arabia, agreed to the supply hike during a virtual meeting on May 31, following similarly sized increases set for May and June. Russia reportedly proposed pausing the increases but was overruled by other alliance members.
The move continues to diverge from OPEC+’s longstanding approach of curbing output to maintain high oil prices. Oil briefly dropped below $60 per barrel in April after OPEC+ announced the output increases, despite weak global demand. Prices have since rebounded slightly, with Brent crude trading around $64 in London.
The shift comes at a financial cost for oil-exporting nations, with lower crude prices threatening revenues but benefiting consumers and helping central banks combat inflation.
Pompeo’s Crimea Warning: “Mistake of Epic Proportions”
Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned against recognizing Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and other Ukrainian territories seized by force, calling it “a mistake of epic proportions” during remarks at the Black Sea Security Forum in Odesa.
Pompeo acknowledged frustrations over current front lines but cautioned against ceding Ukrainian land to Russia. “I get the frustration… I’m not naive about what’s physically possible in this moment, but that doesn’t mean one should go and say, ‘and we are giving up for all time,'” he said.
The remarks come as the Trump administration considers granting Russia de jure recognition over territories it occupies in Ukraine as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Trump has stated that “Crimea will stay with Russia” and blamed Ukraine’s NATO aspirations for the war.
In Odesa, Pompeo reiterated his 2018 Crimea Declaration, issued during Trump’s first term, in which the U.S. rejected Russia’s claims to Ukrainian territory captured by force. While Trump has since distanced himself from Pompeo, the former secretary said he continues making the case on Capitol Hill for maintaining the declaration.
Georgia’s Democratic Decline: EU Condemns Foreign Agents Law
The European Union condemned Georgia’s Foreign Agents Registration Act as a “serious setback for the country’s democracy” as the law officially came into effect on May 31.
In a joint statement, top EU officials Kaja Kallas and Marta Kos criticized the law requiring civil society organizations receiving international funding to register as “foreign agents.” The EU called it “another aggressive action by the Georgian authorities to suppress dissent, restrict freedoms, and further shrink the space for activists, civil society, and independent media.”
The statement noted that Georgia’s “accession process has been de facto halted.” Georgia first received EU candidate status in December 2023, but its accession process has been hampered by growing authoritarianism. Mass protests erupted following contentious parliamentary elections in October 2024, amid reports of ballot stuffing, intimidation, and electoral irregularities.
Georgia’s foreign agents law closely mirrors Russia’s similar legislation, weaponized by the Kremlin to clamp down on civil society since 2012 and significantly expanded in 2022.
Information Warfare Intensifies: Russian Disinformation Targets Polish Election
Russia-aligned influence campaigns intensified efforts to spread disinformation targeting Ukrainian refugees in Poland ahead of the country’s presidential runoff election on June 1, according to a new investigation by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.
ISD found that Russia-aligned actors are amplifying anti-Ukrainian sentiment through coordinated campaigns across platforms such as X, Bluesky, Facebook, and Telegram. These efforts include operations like “Operation Overload” and the pro-Kremlin network “Pravda/Portal Kombat,” using impersonation, AI-generated content, and coordinated amplification.
One Operation Overload campaign claimed Ukrainian refugees were preparing terrorist attacks targeting Polish elections, garnering over 654,000 views and nearly 5,800 interactions on X. Another falsely accused Ukrainians of plotting attacks on politicians in neighboring countries.
The investigation highlighted that immigration has become a key issue in Polish election discourse, noting that both remaining presidential candidates have taken positions targeting Ukrainian refugees. The report urges Polish authorities to remain vigilant against Russia-backed disinformation that fuels discrimination and societal division.
A Day of Revealed Ambitions: Moscow’s True Goals Exposed
May 31 marked a watershed moment as Russia dropped diplomatic pretenses and revealed its true territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Kartapolov’s threats against six major Ukrainian cities, combined with Putin’s martial law preparations and continued battlefield pressure, demonstrated that Moscow’s goals extend far beyond the territories it currently occupies.
The day underscored the fundamental disconnect between Russia’s maximalist demands and any realistic peace settlement. While Ukraine demonstrated continued defensive capabilities with counter-attacks in multiple directions, the evacuation of additional villages in Sumy Oblast and mounting pressure across multiple fronts highlighted the challenging security situation.
As the June 2 Istanbul talks approach with Russia still refusing to provide its promised memorandum, the events of May 31 crystallized the choice facing Ukraine and its allies: accept Moscow’s territorial demands or prepare for continued escalation. The train derailment in Bryansk Oblast, European acknowledgment of potential U.S. abandonment, and intensifying information warfare campaigns all pointed to a conflict entering a more dangerous phase.
With Russia openly stating its intention to seize Ukraine’s major cities and preparing its economy for total war, the illusion of imminent diplomatic breakthrough appeared more distant than ever. The day’s events suggested that Moscow views current peace talks not as genuine negotiations but as cover for continued military operations and territorial expansion.