Summary of the Day – February 24, 2025
As Ukraine marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the global chess match for its future intensifies. European leaders descend on Kyiv in a rare show of solidarity, while Trump negotiates directly with Putin. The battlefield reality—Russian soldiers killed at unprecedented rates while still making incremental gains, Ukraine’s drone innovation versus Russia’s North Korean ammunition pipeline—contrasts with diplomatic maneuvers that could determine the country’s survival. The coming weeks may reveal whether Ukraine’s valiant defense gives way to peace on Moscow’s terms or a security arrangement that preserves its hard-fought sovereignty.
Blood and Iron: The Grim Battlefield Milestone
Three years after Russian tanks rolled across Ukraine’s borders, the human cost of Putin’s war stands starkly revealed: approximately 165,000 Russian soldiers dead, according to independent Russian outlets Meduza and Mediazona. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi paints an even grimmer picture—nearly 870,000 Russian personnel casualties, with about 250,000 killed.
The material toll is equally staggering. Russia has lost over 10,100 tanks, 21,100 armored combat vehicles, and 23,300 artillery systems, Syrskyi reported. These losses, unsustainable in the medium to long-term, reveal the brutal calculus of Putin’s strategy: trading Russian lives for Ukrainian territory at an alarming rate.
Yet for all this sacrifice, Russian forces have clawed back only incremental gains after Ukrainian forces reclaimed more than 50% of the territory Russia seized since February 2022. Recent Russian advances near Chasiv Yar along the T-0504 highway, northwest of Vremivka, near Shevchenko, and in western Lebedevka in Kursk Oblast represent tactical victories at tremendous cost.
“It would take Russian forces over 83 years to capture the remaining 80 percent of Ukraine, assuming they can sustain their current rate of advance and massive personnel losses indefinitely—which is unlikely,” military analysts reported.
The Drone Revolution: Ukraine’s Technological Equalizer
“The security of Europe depends on the security of Ukraine,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda declared in Kyiv—a truth Ukraine’s military engineers have embraced by transforming their country into a drone manufacturing powerhouse.
Ukrainian forces deployed over 1.3 million drones to the frontline, with an astonishing 96% of all Ukrainian military drones now produced domestically. Even more telling: approximately 85% of all Russian casualties and vehicle kills on the battlefield come from Ukrainian drones.
Ukraine’s strike capabilities were on full display as its Unmanned Systems Forces targeted the Ryazan Oil Refining Company, Russia’s largest refinery in the Central Federal District, forcing a complete shutdown after setting its main crude distillation unit ablaze. “At least five explosions were recorded near the target,” the General Staff reported—a powerful reminder that Ukraine can reach deep into Russian territory despite its conventional military disadvantages.
Diplomatic Chess: Trump’s High-Stakes Gambit with Putin
“I think we could end it within weeks. If we’re smart,” declared U.S. President Donald Trump alongside French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House. His bold claim came as American officials prepared for a second round of direct talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia on February 25—talks that continue to exclude Ukraine.
Trump claimed Putin would accept European peacekeepers to monitor a ceasefire, potentially deploying 30,000 European troops in Ukraine. When asked whether Ukraine should cede territory to Russia as part of a negotiated settlement, Trump tersely responded, “We’ll see.”
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made Moscow’s position clear: “Russia will stop fighting only when agreements are reached that suit both parties.” He dismissed the idea of an immediate ceasefire, insisting that Russia would not stop fighting during negotiations.
President Zelensky, marking the anniversary in Kyiv, revealed he had provided Trump with documentation of 25 ceasefires that Russia has violated since 2014. “Peace cannot be concluded in an hour, a day, today, tomorrow,” he warned, pushing back against hasty deals without security guarantees.
Europe’s Finest Hour: Leaders Rally in Kyiv Despite Danger
In a dramatic display of solidarity, 13 European leaders and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Kyiv despite the dangers of visiting a war zone. “We are in Kyiv today, because Ukraine is Europe. In this fight for survival, it is not only the destiny of Ukraine that is at stake. It’s Europe’s destiny,” declared European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The visit produced immediate results: von der Leyen announced a new 3.5-billion-euro ($3.7 billion) payment for Ukraine arriving in March, Spain pledged 1 billion euros in military aid, and the UK imposed its largest-ever sanctions package against Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers and foreign-based companies providing military parts.
Perhaps most significantly, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda proposed setting January 1, 2030, as the official date for Ukraine’s EU accession—a concrete timeline that contrasts sharply with NATO’s ambiguity.
French President Macron’s tense exchange with Trump at the White House captured Europe’s growing assertiveness. When Trump claimed Europe was merely “loaning money to Ukraine” while the U.S. gave grants, Macron interrupted: “No,” grabbing Trump’s forearm. “To be frank, we paid 60 percent of the total effort… Like the US—loans, guarantees, grants. We provided real money—to be clear.”
The Arsenal of Democracy: Ukraine’s Industrial Transformation
Ukraine’s economy, after contracting 30% following Russia’s 2022 invasion, defied expectations by growing 5% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024. This resilience extends to its defense industry, where domestic production of small arms ammunition, mortar rounds, shells, and artillery rockets increased six-fold in 2024.
The transformation reflects Ukraine’s determination to maintain independence even as international support wavers. “This war [so far has cost] $320 billion. $120 billion – Ukraine, $100 billion – Europe and other partners, $100 billion – the USA. Not $500, not $300, and not $700,” Zelensky said, challenging Trump’s claims about American expenditures.
Ukraine’s security apparatus remains confident despite battlefield pressures. Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov reported that Russian arms production has flatlined and is likely to contract due to parts and labor shortages. Meanwhile, SBU head Vasyl Malyuk estimated that Ukrainian drone strikes cost the Russian economy $11 billion in lost income from the energy sector alone.
The Price of Oil: Europe’s Uncomfortable Dependency
Despite three years of war and numerous sanctions packages, the EU paid 21.9 billion euros ($22.9 billion) for Russian fossil fuel imports in the past year—exceeding the 18.7 billion euros in financial aid sent to Ukraine in 2024.
“Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Europe has made significant progress in terms of energy independence. Imports of Russian oil and gas have decreased substantially, with gas imports dropping from 45% in 2021 to 18% in 2024,” said European Parliament member Thomas Pellerin-Carlin. “However, a quarter of Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues still come from Europe.”
This contradiction—funding both Ukraine’s defense and Russia’s war machine—reveals Europe’s still-unresolved dilemma. Russia’s total global fossil fuel revenue reached 242 billion euros in the war’s third year, with China, India, and Turkey now accounting for 74% of its fossil fuel revenues.
The World Takes Sides: UN Shows Divided Response
The United Nations General Assembly passed a Ukrainian resolution condemning Russia’s full-scale invasion, with 93 countries voting in favor and 18 against. Notably, the United States, Israel, Hungary, Russia, and Belarus voted against the resolution, which explicitly named Russia as the aggressor.
On the same day, the General Assembly passed a separate U.S. resolution marking the third anniversary of the invasion that avoided directly calling Russia the aggressor—a distinction highlighting Washington’s shifting approach under Trump. Ukraine abstained from this version.
The split vote mirrors global divisions as the war enters its fourth year. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, used his country’s Defender of the Fatherland Day to frame the invasion in religious terms: “We are fighting for our Motherland… This is how the Lord wanted it,” he claimed.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma: Human Lives as Bargaining Chips
“A thousand. Thousands of people are being held in Russia. Some of them have been in captivity not only since 2022 but even earlier, since 2014,” Zelensky declared, calling for an “all for all” prisoner exchange with Russia. “Russia must release Ukrainians. Ukraine is ready to exchange everyone for everyone, and this is a fair option.”
The human toll extends beyond soldiers to civilians in places like Sumy Oblast, where Russian aerial attacks killed two people and injured six on the anniversary, with local authorities recording 169 explosions in a single day.
In occupied areas, human rights remain precarious. The U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission recorded 79 executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces since August 2024—a stark reminder that this conflict continues to claim lives beyond the battlefield.
The Nuclear Shadow: Strategic Bombers Test Russia’s Neighbors
As diplomats worked behind the scenes, a US Air Force Boeing B-52 Stratofortress, a long-range strategic bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons, flew just 50 kilometers from the Russian border, triggering alarm on Russian social media.
The bomber flight over Tallinn, Estonia—part of Independence Day celebrations—demonstrated NATO’s continued commitment to the Baltic states, even as Trump questions the alliance’s value. With more than 1,000 troops from Estonian and NATO forces participating in Estonia’s annual military parade, the message was clear: deterrence remains a crucial counterweight to Russian aggression.
Germany’s Leadership Test: Merz Questions NATO’s Future
Amid these developments, Germany’s conservative leader Friedrich Merz raised doubts about NATO’s future following his election victory: “I am very curious to see how we are heading toward the NATO summit at the end of June. Whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly.”
Merz, set to become Germany’s next Chancellor, urged Europe to boost its defenses and even consider a NATO alternative. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” he said—a remarkable statement from the leader of Europe’s largest economy.
Known for his tough stance on Russia, Merz has supported sending medium-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, something outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz repeatedly refused. His election could signal a more assertive European defense posture—if he can form a government by his April 20 target.
The Twilight Struggle: Democracy versus Authoritarianism
As Ukraine enters its fourth year of full-scale war, the fundamental question remains whether democracy can withstand authoritarian aggression. “This is a chance for Europe to reassert its agency and bring lasting peace to Europe by standing by Ukraine,” Ukrainian American historian Serhii Plokhii told reporters. “No one expected that to happen three years ago: Ukraine is standing but America is falling.”
The days ahead will test whether Ukraine’s remarkable resilience—rebuilding its economy, transforming its defense industry, and maintaining public support for Zelensky (63% approval despite wartime hardships)—can overcome Russia’s advantage in manpower and Trump’s apparent eagerness for a deal on Putin’s terms.
Women now make up 21% of applicants at Ukraine’s army recruitment centers, and countries from Canada to Lithuania have pledged continued support. But will it be enough? As Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene bluntly put it: “When you feel that your own ass is burning, you start to move faster. So, I do hope that we will start to move faster in the next few months.”
The war’s third anniversary marks not just a moment to remember the past, but a critical juncture that may determine Ukraine’s—and Europe’s—future for generations to come.