Intelligence, Artillery, and Hard Choices: How the U.S. Aid Suspension Transforms Battlefield Reality
Summary of the Day – March 9, 2025
As Russian forces intensify their push through northern Kursk Oblast and cross the international border into Ukraine’s Sumy region, the suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine marks a pivotal moment in the war’s trajectory. Russian advances, bolstered by North Korean troops and intensified drone warfare, have dramatically altered the strategic calculus in a conflict now shaped as much by diplomatic maneuvers in Washington and Jeddah as by the artillery exchanges on the frontlines.
On March 8, 2025, Russian forces achieved their most significant territorial gains in months, collapsing Ukrainian positions in northern Kursk Oblast while breaching Ukraine’s Sumy region for the first time since the war’s early phase in 2022. Meanwhile, European allies scramble to fill America’s support void as U.S.-Ukrainian peace talks loom against a backdrop of increasing Russian military pressure.
The Kursk Collapse: Russia’s Northern Offensive Accelerates
The northern section of Ukraine’s Kursk salient is rapidly crumbling under intensified Russian pressure. Geolocated footage confirms Russian forces have seized Novaya Sorochina northwest of Sudzha, Malaya Loknya just south of it, and Lebedevka, along with the fields separating these settlements. Elements of Russia’s 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 51st Airborne Regiment led these advances, with most Ukrainian forces withdrawing toward Kazachya Loknya and Sudzha.
Russian military bloggers report that preparatory strikes on bridges north and south of Sudzha have significantly hampered Ukraine’s ability to withdraw to more defensible positions. Ukrainian forces mounted a counterattack near Malaya Loknya, but without success, highlighting their deteriorating tactical position.
“Russian forces are attempting to advance into central Sudzha and crossed to the west bank of the Sudzha River in at least one place in the town,” revealed one Russian military blogger, as Russian forces press into the industrial area in northeastern Sudzha and advance into Knyazhiy 1 and Knyazhiy 2 northwest of the city.
The situation has been further complicated by the performance of North Korean forces. Ukrainian sources told Suspilne that up to two battalions of North Korean troops operating near Sudzha appear “better trained” and are “acting more coherently” than some Russian units, adding a concerning dimension to Ukraine’s defensive challenge.
The Pipeline Gambit: Underground Infiltration Reaches Sudzha
In a tactical innovation that has captured attention across military circles, Russian special forces used an underground gas pipe to reach the outskirts of Ukrainian-held Sudzha. Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed reports that Russian troops crawled approximately 15 kilometers through a pipeline with a diameter of just 1.4 meters.
Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance spotted the infiltration, and Ukraine claims the Russian forces are “being detected, blocked and destroyed.” Russian military bloggers, however, claim the troops achieved their objective and that fighting continues in Sudzha. The gas pipeline, which until January served as a transit route for Russian gas to Europe, with Sudzha functioning as a key hub, provided an unexpected infiltration route that bypassed Ukrainian defensive positions.
“At the moment, Russian special forces are being detected, blocked and destroyed. Enemy losses in the Sudzha area are very heavy,” claimed Ukraine’s military, though independent verification remains challenging amidst the fog of war.
The Timing Connection: U.S. Intelligence Sharing Suspension and Russian Advances
The temporal correlation between the suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine on March 5 and Russia’s accelerated offensive operations is striking. Russia has struggled for months to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast, making only gradual gains despite deploying approximately 12,000 North Korean troops since October 2024.
A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence began noting more rapid Russian advances on March 5, coinciding with the U.S. intelligence sharing suspension. A Ukrainian government source told Time magazine that the suspension has affected Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast most severely, suggesting a direct operational impact.
The Russian military, which had previously prioritized advances in eastern Ukraine over pushing Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast, appears to have shifted its focus. Kremlin officials recently announced their intention to “inflict maximum damage” on Ukrainian forces “on the ground” during what they perceive as a limited window before possible resumption of U.S. military aid.
“If we pull the plug on Ukraine, it’d be worse than Afghanistan. I don’t think [Trump] has any desire to do that,” U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham stated on March 9, expressing concern about cutting off intelligence and weapons while fighting continues.
Artillery Disadvantage Deepens as U.S. Aid Freezes
Reports about the extent of the U.S. military aid suspension indicate a growing artillery disadvantage for Ukrainian forces. The Wall Street Journal reported on March 8 that Ukraine is currently able to fire one artillery shell for every three that Russian forces fire—even with Ukraine’s current supplies of U.S. shells.
This marks a stark reversal from December 2024, when Ukrainian officials indicated they had achieved an artillery advantage of 1.5 to one, or even three-to-one in some sectors. Russia’s artillery advantage will likely grow as Ukraine’s stockpiles of U.S. ammunition decrease following the aid suspension.
Forbes reported on March 7 that the Trump administration has also halted U.S. support for Ukraine’s F-16 fighter jet radar jammers, potentially hampering Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian strikes into its rear areas.
Europe Steps Up: Alternative Support Channels Emerge
As U.S. support wavers, Ukraine’s European allies are intensifying their assistance efforts. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced on March 8 that France will use accrued interest from frozen Russian assets to provide Ukraine with military aid worth €195 million (approximately $211 million).
“This will enable the delivery of 155-mm shells as well as AASM gliding bombs which arm the Ukrainian Mirage 2000s,” Lecornu stated, adding that France is accelerating the transfer of older equipment including tanks and armored vehicles.
Norway’s Parliament agreed on March 6 to increase military aid to Ukraine to a total of 85 billion Norwegian kroner (approximately $7.8 billion) in 2025—a substantial increase from the November 2024 pledge of roughly 35 billion Norwegian kroner.
European partners may also provide alternative sources of satellite imagery. The Financial Times reported that Anders Linder, head of the international division at commercial satellite imagery supplier Maxar Technologies, stated that any of Maxar’s commercial customers—including U.S. allies—can use purchased data “however they see fit,” including by “sharing it with their allies, such as Ukraine.”
Two protesters hold hands as people, including many Ukrainians who live in Berlin, gather to demonstrate at the Brandenburg Gate in a show of support for Ukraine in Berlin, Germany. (Omer Messinger/Getty Images)
The Diplomatic Chessboard: Peace Talks Amid Military Pressure
The battlefield developments unfold against a backdrop of complex diplomatic maneuvering. U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators are set to meet in Saudi Arabia next week, with the Trump administration seeking a ceasefire and framework for a peace agreement.
The U.S. delegation will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. From Ukraine, Andriy Yermak (Zelensky’s chief of staff), Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will participate, while President Zelensky will separately meet with the Saudi crown prince.
“I think we’re going to have a good result in Saudi Arabia… We have a lot of good people going out there,” Trump told reporters. “And I think Ukraine’s going to do well, and I think Russia is going to do well. I think some very big things could happen this week.”
However, the power dynamics in these negotiations appear increasingly unfavorable to Ukraine. U.S. officials indicated they want to see if Ukraine is ready for a “realistic peace,” with one unnamed official telling Reuters: “You can’t say ‘I want peace,’ and, ‘I refuse to compromise on anything.'”
The Starlink Lifeline: Assurances Amid Uncertainty
Concerns about Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellite internet services—crucial for military communications—escalated when U.S. tech billionaire Elon Musk engaged in a public dispute with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
Musk ultimately declared: “To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals.” He claimed: “Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off,” highlighting the system’s critical importance to Ukrainian operations.
Poland provides half of Ukraine’s 42,000 Starlink terminals at a cost of about $50 million per year, according to Sikorski, who had expressed concerns about potential service interruptions.
Beyond Kursk: Advances in Eastern Ukraine
While attention focuses on Kursk, Russian forces continue their push in eastern Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the capture of Kostiantynopil in Donetsk region, bringing Russian forces within 13 kilometers of the symbolic boundary with Dnipropetrovsk region, which has thus far been free of ground combat.
Ukrainian forces have achieved localized advances near Toretsk and in the Pokrovsk direction, with geolocated footage showing Ukrainian troops advancing along Polova Street in southeastern Lysivka and south of the settlement.
The Aerial Campaign: Russia’s Sustained Assault
President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that throughout the week, Russia carried out hundreds of attacks against Ukraine using various weapons, including around 1,200 guided aerial bombs, nearly 870 attack drones, and over 80 missiles of different types.
“Every Shahed drone and aerial bomb Russia uses contains components supplied in circumvention of sanctions. These weapons include more than 82,000 foreign components,” Zelensky stated, emphasizing the continuing importance of sanctions enforcement.
Overnight on March 8-9, Ukrainian air defenses engaged a massive drone swarm, downing 73 out of 119 Shahed and decoy drones launched from various Russian locations. The remaining 37 drones disappeared from radar, likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare interference.
The Strategic Calculus: Holding Kursk as Leverage
Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 was intended partly to create a buffer zone and provide potential leverage in future peace negotiations. But as Russian forces reclaim territory—reportedly now controlling more than two-thirds of the area Ukraine initially seized—that leverage is diminishing.
Prominent Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov wrote on March 9 that holding onto the Kursk territory was no longer tactically justified, suggesting a strategic reassessment may be underway in Kyiv.
The Diplomatic Horizon: What Comes Next
As Ukrainian and U.S. delegations prepare for their Saudi Arabia meeting, the fundamental question remains whether the discussions will produce a viable framework for ending the conflict. Ukraine continues to seek security guarantees, while managing a deteriorating position on multiple fronts.
The Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, recently discussed possible ceasefire conditions during a Kyiv meeting with Jonathan Powell, National Security Advisor to the UK Prime Minister. These included “silence in the sky and at sea”—cessation of attacks on energy and civilian infrastructure and naval military operations—and the release of prisoners.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American adversaries. Russia, China, and Iran announced the opening of their annual trilateral “Maritime Security Belt – 2025” naval exercise in Chabahar Port, Iran, beginning March 11.
As battlefield dynamics shift and diplomatic pressures mount, Ukraine faces difficult choices about its strategic priorities and negotiating positions in the coming weeks—choices that will shape not only the immediate military situation but the future of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Eastern Front: Mixed Results Amid Intensified Combat
While the Kursk situation dominates headlines, fierce fighting continues across eastern Ukraine with mixed results for both sides.
Siversk Direction: Russian Advances
Geolocated footage published on March 9 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of Verkhnokamyanske, east of Siversk. Russian forces continued assaults northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka, in the direction of Serebryanka, and east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske.
Toretsk: Contested Urban Combat
Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have made marginal advances in Toretsk. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces recently retook the Avanhard Stadium in central Toretsk, while Russian forces advanced in western parts of the city. A Russian military blogger reported many contested “gray zones” throughout the settlement.
Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov noted that Russian forces are attempting to use motorcycles instead of tanks to evade Ukrainian drone strikes while traveling within and near Toretsk, demonstrating tactical adaptations to drone warfare.
Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian Counterattacks
Ukrainian forces recently advanced along Polova Street in southeastern Lysivka and south of the settlement. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Uspenivka and Shevchenko, attempting to regain initiative in this crucial sector.
The commander of a Ukrainian drone company operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that Russian forces are mostly using civilian vehicles, and Ukrainian forces are striking Russian logistics between Selydove and the frontline.
Kurakhove Direction: Russian Breakthrough
Russian forces recently seized Kostiantynopil west of Kurakhove, with geolocated footage showing Russian servicemembers raising flags in central and southwestern parts of the settlement. This advance threatens to create a new vulnerable salient in Ukrainian defensive lines.
Drone Warfare: Expanding Range and Impact
Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against oil and industry infrastructure deep in Russia on the night of March 8-9. A Ukrainian drone attacked the Burevestnik oil depot in Cheboksary in Russia’s Chuvashia Republic—over 900 kilometers from the Ukrainian border and reportedly the first such attack on this region since the war began.
Ukrainian forces also struck the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) in Lipetsk Oblast, according to Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Combatting Disinformation. The NLMK is one of Russia’s largest metallurgical enterprises, supplying the defense industrial base with steel and rolled products for military equipment.
These strikes demonstrate Ukraine’s continued ability to project force deep into Russian territory despite the challenges it faces on the battlefield.
The Human Cost: Continuing Civilian Casualties
Russian attacks against Ukraine killed six people and injured 34 others over the past day, according to regional authorities. Two people were killed in Pokrovsk and Siversk in Donetsk Oblast, with another 23 injured across the region. In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces targeted 40 settlements, including the regional center, killing three people and injuring nine others.
The human toll continues to mount on both sides of the conflict, with civilians bearing the brunt of artillery barrages, drone strikes, and missile attacks on urban areas.
Looking Forward: Strategic Implications
As the tactical situation evolves, several strategic implications emerge:
- The Kursk Calculus: Ukraine’s ability to maintain its presence in Kursk Oblast appears increasingly tenuous, potentially diminishing a key bargaining chip in peace negotiations.
- Intelligence Gap: The suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing has created operational challenges for Ukrainian forces, particularly in anticipating and countering Russian movements.
- Artillery Disadvantage: Ukraine’s deteriorating artillery ratio suggests increasing difficulty in holding ground against Russian advances in coming weeks.
- European Support: While European allies are stepping up with additional aid, questions remain about whether this support can fully replace U.S. assistance in scale and timeliness.
- Peace Framework: The upcoming talks in Saudi Arabia represent a critical juncture in determining whether a viable ceasefire agreement can be reached and what territorial and security concessions might be involved.
As battlefield positions shift and diplomatic pressures mount, Ukraine faces perhaps its most challenging strategic environment since the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion—a moment requiring difficult decisions about military priorities, diplomatic flexibility, and long-term national security objectives.