Summary of the Day – March 5, 2025
As the U.S. suspends critical intelligence sharing with Ukraine, Moscow seizes the diplomatic advantage while Russian forces press their battlefield momentum. Meanwhile, Europe scrambles to fill the growing leadership vacuum.
The Intelligence Blackout
The Trump administration has suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, delivering a crippling blow to Kyiv’s defensive capabilities. CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed the halt, which threatens Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian targets and defend against missile attacks. The move follows Washington’s decision to freeze all military aid supplies after the heated Trump-Zelensky Oval Office exchange on February 28.
“Trump had a real question about whether President Zelensky was committed to the peace process, and he said let’s pause,” Ratcliffe told Fox Business.
The suspension specifically impacts intelligence Ukraine uses for early warning systems against Russian missile strikes, target designation for HIMARS strikes, and long-range operations within Russia. Reports indicate the U.S. has also prohibited the United Kingdom from sharing American intelligence with Ukraine, severely hampering the Western alliance’s coordinated support.
This intelligence blackout will critically undermine Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian attacks on both military and civilian targets. Ukrainian forces have previously leveraged precision strikes to destroy significant Russian materiel and push Russian aviation operations deeper into Russia’s territory. The ability to conduct ATACMS and HIMARS strikes against Russian air defense systems has been vital to limiting Russia’s effective use of glide bombs against Ukrainian positions.
Zelensky’s Diplomatic Overture
In a striking shift of tone following the White House confrontation, President Volodymyr Zelensky extended an olive branch to the Trump administration, calling the Oval Office clash “regrettable” and affirming his commitment to working toward peace under Trump’s “strong leadership.”
“Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer,” Zelensky stated, offering to exchange prisoners of war, ban missile and long-range drone strikes against energy and civilian infrastructure, and reach an immediate truce in the Black Sea.
The Ukrainian president, who previously indicated willingness to make concessions on territory, NATO membership, and even his own position, proposed initial steps to de-escalate the conflict. His statement came after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer reportedly advised him “to back down and apologize” during a March 4 phone call.
Ukrainian and American teams have already begun arranging a meeting, with Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak announcing: “We discussed further steps towards a just and lasting peace. We also exchanged views on security issues and the coordination of positions within the framework of bilateral relations between Ukraine and the United States.”
Moscow’s Calculated Response
Kremlin officials wasted no time capitalizing on the rifts between Ukraine and its Western backers. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev laid bare Moscow’s intentions, stating that Russia’s “main task” remains “inflicting maximum damage” on Ukraine “on the ground” while the pause in U.S. aid creates a window of opportunity.
“We believe applying pressure to everybody to stop the killing. That’s what the president’s policy is,” U.S. Vice President JD Vance claimed, despite the administration exerting no new pressure on Moscow while cutting vital support to Kyiv.
The Kremlin continues to deflect blame for the stalled peace talks onto Zelensky. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, when asked about Zelensky’s willingness to negotiate, claimed that Zelensky “is not human,” while Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov maintained that Zelensky’s 2022 ban on negotiating with Russia remains a roadblock—despite Ukraine’s recent and explicit declarations of willingness to engage in peace talks.
Peskov also signaled openness to hosting talks in Minsk, responding to Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s offer to host Trump, Putin, and Zelensky: “This issue has not been brought up or discussed in any way. But, of course, Minsk is the best place for us. It is our main ally, so it is the best place for negotiations.”
Europe Fills the Vacuum
As American leadership wavers, European powers are rushing to fill the security void. French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a momentous address to his nation, declaring Russia a direct threat to the continent and making an unprecedented offer to extend France’s nuclear deterrent to protect European allies.
“I have decided to start strategic discussions on the defense of the entire continent with our nuclear weapons,” Macron announced. “The threat from Russia extends to the whole of Europe. This aggressiveness seems far away, but it is very close.”
Meanwhile, Germany’s likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, pushed for an immediate 3-billion-euro defense aid package for Ukraine to be approved by the outgoing parliament. In a dramatic policy shift, Merz unveiled plans to establish a 500-billion-euro special development and defense fund and exempt defense spending above 1% of GDP from debt break rules.
“Germany is expected to at least double its defense budget to €100 billion per year,” said Manuela Schwesig, a senior Social Democrat participating in coalition negotiations.
The Netherlands joined the European support effort, with Prime Minister Dick Schoof announcing 3.5 billion euros in combined government support for Ukraine in 2026, including 700 million euros earmarked for drone production.
French and British leaders are finalizing a European peace plan “in days not weeks” to present to the United States, with a senior European diplomat telling Reuters: “We’re looking at putting this plan together in days and not weeks.”
Battlefield Developments
Russian forces made no confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast on March 5, despite continuing offensive operations in the area. Ukrainian forces are reportedly counterattacking in southern Sudzhansky Raion.
Near Toretsk, Ukrainian forces recently advanced along Promeneva Street in the southwestern part of the town, according to geolocated footage. A Ukrainian battalion commander reported that Russian forces had conducted rotations and are attacking on motorcycles, buggies, all-terrain vehicles, and civilian vehicles.
In the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian forces advanced in eastern Shevchenko and within Uspenivka, as well as on the north bank of the Solona River in western Novoserhiivka. Russian forces claimed to have captured Pryvilne northwest of Velyka Novosilka, though Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks in the area.
Military expert Petro Chernyk noted on March 5 that the tempo of Russian offensive operations near Pokrovsk has decreased significantly, with attacks dropping from 40-60 to 18-20 per day. He attributed this to Russia’s recruitment shortfall, noting that Russian forces were previously able to recruit up to 50,000 personnel per month while suffering roughly 40,000 losses, but recruitment has recently fallen to about 40,000 per month.
Russian Air Assault on Civilian Targets
Russian forces struck a hotel in Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with a missile on March 5, killing four people and injuring at least 30, including a child. The attack damaged 14 apartment buildings, a post office, nearly two dozen cars, a cultural center, and 12 shops.
“Just before the strike, volunteers from a humanitarian organization checked into the hotel – citizens of Ukraine, the U.S., and the U.K.,” President Zelensky said. “They survived because they managed to escape their rooms.”
In a separate overnight barrage, Russia launched 181 drones and multiple missiles against Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 115 drones over various regions, while another 55 drones disappeared from radars. Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast targeted 29 settlements, killing one person and injuring six others.
The Army in Absentia
Over 50,000 Russian servicemembers are reportedly listed as having abandoned their units and are absent without leave (AWOL) between February 2022 and mid-December 2024, according to data obtained by Ukrainian hackers from an internal Russian Ministry of Defense presentation.
The largest number of AWOL cases—22,577—were in the Southern Military District. There were 13,769 cases in the Central Military District, 7,178 in the Moscow Military District, 3,052 in the Leningrad Military District, and 3,378 in the Eastern Military District.
A leaked document reportedly indicated that personnel from the 51st Combined Arms Army and 3rd Combined Arms Army made up 58.8 percent of the Southern Military District’s AWOL cases, with most occurring between 2023 and 2024.
The Minerals Gambit
The proposed natural resources agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. remains stalled as Trump seeks a “bigger, better deal,” according to CBS News. The agreement would establish a fund to which Ukraine would contribute 50% of proceeds from future monetization of state-owned mineral resources.
White House national security adviser Mike Waltz indicated that Trump may lift the pause on military support once peace talks are arranged and more confidence-building measures are taken. “I think if we can nail down these negotiations and move towards these negotiations, and put some confidence-building measures on the table, then the president will take a hard look at lifting this pause,” Waltz said.
The fate of the mineral deal, which collapsed following the Trump-Zelensky confrontation, remains uncertain despite Zelensky’s public recommitment to signing it.
The Sanctions Question
Reports indicate the Trump administration is preparing a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief for several entities and Russian citizens as part of negotiations to end the war. This move represents a stark shift from the Biden administration’s policy and may create fractures with European allies.
“Imagine the chaos that would create for companies if within the G7 and the European Union we had essentially contradictory rules when it comes to Russia,” said Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative.
The disunity among Ukraine’s allies would not only benefit Russia but would make sanctions harder to sustain. Without coordinated restrictions, Russian President Vladimir Putin could gain leverage to demand more from Europe in exchange for market access.
Peacekeepers on the Horizon
European countries have intensified talks on sending peacekeepers to Ukraine to monitor and enforce a possible ceasefire. Canada has joined the list of countries expressing willingness to participate, with Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair stating, “Canada is ready and able to make a contribution to that force.”
However, Blair emphasized that U.S. security guarantees would be essential for such a mission to succeed: “We’ve strongly indicated we’re willing to be a part of that, but I still believe it is going to require security guarantees from the United States.”
The potential deployment faces significant challenges, including Russia’s refusal to accept Western peacekeepers and the lack of unity among European nations. The required force size also remains in question, with estimates ranging from 30,000 to 200,000 troops.
The American Pulse
Despite the Trump administration’s shift in rhetoric, an overwhelming majority of Americans reject the notion that Ukraine bears responsibility for the war. According to an Ipsos poll published by Reuters, 70% of adults surveyed disagreed with the statement “Ukraine is more to blame for starting the war,” with just 7% agreeing.
The partisan divide was notable but not overwhelming—81% of Democrats rejected blaming Ukraine, as did 62% of Republicans, suggesting that despite Washington’s policy changes, the American public remains largely supportive of Ukraine’s position.
As Representative Jasmine Crockett bluntly stated in response to Trump’s congressional address: “I would tell him to grow a spine and stop being Putin’s ho.”