As Russian forces press forward in Kursk Oblast while Ukraine establishes a new peace delegation, both sides are positioning for a high-stakes negotiation amid continuing battlefield violence
Summary of the Day – March 15, 2025
The brutal chess match of the Ukraine-Russia war entered a new phase today, with multiple forces converging around a potential, yet still elusive, ceasefire. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unsubstantiated claims of encircling Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast were categorically denied by both Ukrainian officials and Russian military bloggers alike, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky named a powerful new negotiating team amid intensifying Russian attacks in northeastern Ukraine. The shadow of peace talks looms large, yet violence continues uninterrupted, with a punishing overnight drone barrage striking fourteen Ukrainian regions and new Russian ground operations threatening Sumy Oblast as world leaders attempt to build a coalition strong enough to enforce any future agreement.
Both diplomatic and military momentum have accelerated dramatically, with a 25-nation “coalition of the willing” moving into what UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer termed an “operational phase” to develop security guarantees for Ukraine. Simultaneously, Russian forces have intensified artillery, and drone strikes against Ukrainian civilians in Nikopol, killing one woman and injuring two children, continuing a pattern of targeting non-military targets even as peace proposals circulate. The potential for a U.S.-brokered 30-day ceasefire hangs in the balance, with Ukraine signaling acceptance while Russia counters with demands that would severely limit Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
Kursk Claims and Counterclaims: Putin’s Encirclement Narrative Unravels
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent assertion that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast has faced an unusual challenge: denial from both Ukrainian officials and Russian military bloggers alike. Two Russian milbloggers explicitly rejected Putin’s claim, with one characterizing it as a narrative crafted to influence U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of peace negotiations rather than an accurate battlefield assessment.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky directly contradicted Putin’s account, stating, “Russian forces are unsuccessfully attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast” and that “no encirclement currently exists.” He further suggested Putin is deliberately spreading misinformation to delay discussion of the U.S.-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal.
“Putin is lying to everyone about the situation on the ground,” Zelensky declared in a post on X following a virtual summit of European leaders.
President Volodymyr Zelensky participates in a virtual summit of primarily Western allies, led by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in talks on Ukraine’s security guarantees. (President Volodymyr Zelensky / X)
Independent Ukrainian sources confirmed that Ukrainian forces maintain the ability to maneuver from their positions despite facing a difficult tactical situation. As of this publication, no geolocated footage has emerged suggesting that Russian forces have successfully encircled Ukrainian troops in the region, with Ukrainian forces apparently maintaining egress routes across the international border.
Diplomacy’s New Architects: Ukraine Names Elite Negotiating Team
In a significant development that signals Ukraine’s strategic preparation for potential peace talks, President Zelensky issued a decree on March 15 creating a new delegation specifically tasked with engaging international partners in negotiation processes to end the war.
The delegation will be led by Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelensky’s office, who has been described as “the most powerful chief of staff in Ukraine’s history.” The team also includes Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and Presidential Administration Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa—the same team that negotiated with U.S. representatives in Jeddah for the proposed 30-day ceasefire.
This appointment comes at a crucial moment as Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. are engaged in intense negotiations. The delegation’s composition reflects the high stakes involved, bringing together Ukraine’s most experienced diplomatic and defense officials.
Yermak, nicknamed “The Fixer” by Politico, has accumulated unprecedented power and influence within Zelensky’s administration. As a former television producer who became Zelensky’s chief of staff in 2020, he has transformed into an indispensable gatekeeper for the Ukrainian president. His leadership of this delegation underscores the critical importance Ukraine places on these negotiations.
The Coalition Takes Form: European Leaders Advance Peacekeeping Plans
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that an expanded coalition of nations is intensifying efforts to support Ukraine in peace negotiations with Russia, following a high-level virtual summit in London on March 15. The coalition will hold military talks on March 20 to develop “stronger and robust plans” for Ukrainian security guarantees.
“We will now move to the operational phase,” Starmer told reporters, emphasizing that the upcoming military discussions will focus on concrete security measures that could include “troops on the ground and planes in the sky” if necessary. “We know from history, recent history, that a deal without security arrangements is not something which Putin respects,” Starmer warned, adding that without proper guarantees, “Putin will breach the line again.”
The coalition is actively discussing the seizure of frozen Russian assets as part of intensified economic pressure on Moscow. While acknowledging the legal complexities involved, Starmer confirmed the coalition agreed to implement additional sanctions against Russia immediately.
The expanded coalition now includes members from Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan, reflecting growing international determination to ensure Ukraine’s security. Despite the U.S. under President Trump disavowing much of his predecessor’s Ukraine support, Starmer highlighted ongoing engagement with Washington, expressing confidence that President Trump remains “absolutely committed” to achieving lasting peace in Ukraine.
Sumy in the Crosshairs: Russia’s Threatening Buildup on the Northeastern Front
Ukrainian officials have expressed mounting concern about Russian ground operations in northern Sumy Oblast, though they question Russia’s ability to launch an effective concerted offensive against Sumy City itself. President Zelensky stated that the Russian military is accumulating forces along Ukraine’s eastern border, indicating Russia’s interest in “striking” Sumy Oblast.
“This speaks to a desire to deliver a strike to our Sumy Oblast,” Zelensky wrote. “We understand this and will take countermeasures.”
Zelensky may be referring to Russian efforts to advance far enough into northern Sumy Oblast to place Sumy City within artillery range. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated that Russian forces are preparing for more “active actions” in the Sumy Oblast border area and to “strike” Sumy Oblast, but not to conduct an offensive operation against Sumy City itself.
Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russian assault groups and sabotage and reconnaissance units continue to operate along the Sumy Oblast border, attempting to advance further into Ukrainian territory. Recent geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have already advanced in western Basivka, northeast of Sumy City in Sumy Oblast.
The War Crimes Narrative: Kremlin’s Preemptive Campaign Against Ceasefire
The Kremlin appears to be intensifying a narrative accusing Ukrainian forces of war crimes in Kursk Oblast, likely in an attempt to discredit the Ukrainian military, erode Western support, and complicate or delay discussions about the 30-day ceasefire proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Putin publicly questioned on March 13, in reaction to the U.S.-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal, whether Russia should allow Ukrainian forces to leave Kursk Oblast “after they committed a lot of crimes against civilians” and reiterated claims on March 14 that Ukrainian forces committed “terrorism” in the region.
The Russian Investigative Committee announced on March 12 that it is opening investigations into alleged Ukrainian war crimes in areas of Kursk Oblast that experienced heavy fighting and announced the conviction of two Ukrainian soldiers for alleged “terrorism” and “war crimes” on March 14. Russian ultranationalist voices, including those with Kremlin affiliations, have been amplifying these unsubstantiated claims with increasing frequency.
This narrative appears calculated to portray Ukrainian forces as brutal war criminals—a tactic like what the Kremlin employed in late 2021 and 2022 to justify Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. By contrast, Putin continues efforts to present himself as a merciful leader, creating a false dichotomy that complicates peace negotiations.
Nighttime Terror: Russia’s Relentless Aerial Campaign Continues
Russian forces conducted a massive drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of March 14 to 15, including their third double-tap strike in the past week—a tactic deliberately designed to target first responders arriving at the scene of initial attacks.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Kursk Oblast and 178 Shahed and decoy drones from multiple launch sites in Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces downed 130 drones over fourteen Ukrainian oblasts, while 38 drones were “lost,” likely due to electronic warfare interference.
Two ballistic missiles struck Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, while Russian drones hit civilian and critical infrastructure in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Odesa regions. Ukraine’s State Emergency Service reported that Russian forces conducted three drone strikes, each one hour apart, on a residential area of Bohodukhiv in Kharkiv Oblast—a deliberate tactic targeting first responders.
The attack caused damage across six Ukrainian regions, with reports indicating that Russian forces specifically targeted energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa oblasts.
Nikopol Under Fire: Women and Children Bear the Burden of Russian Artillery
Russia attacked the town of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast over a dozen times on March 15, killing one woman and injuring three people, including two children, Governor Serhii Lysak reported. The injured include girls aged 11 and 3, who are receiving treatment at a medical facility in Dnipro.
A home targeted by Russian attacks in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Dnipropetrovsk Prosecutors Office / Telegram)
A 70-year-old woman was killed in the attacks, according to Ukraine’s General Prosecutor’s Office, which has launched a war crimes investigation. Another woman, aged 57, also suffered injuries but is receiving outpatient care.
Russia bombarded Nikopol and surrounding communities with both artillery and drones, damaging a religious institution, five homes, two outbuildings, 15 solar panels, a car, and a power line. Located across from Russian-occupied Enerhodar and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Nikopol has become a regular target of Russian attacks, with civilians bearing the heaviest burden.
Ukraine’s Industrial Revolution: Domestic Arms Production Surges
Ukraine has dramatically expanded its domestic military production capacity, with the share of domestically produced military equipment reaching 30% last year—a sixfold increase from 2023. According to the Ukrainian Armament Manufacturers Council, total weapons production in Ukraine stood at $10 billion in 2024, up from just $1 billion in 2022 and $3 billion in 2023.
Production is projected to rise to $30-35 billion in 2025, with plans to manufacture up to 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 cruise and other missiles. Some categories have seen even more remarkable growth, with domestically produced drones now accounting for over 95% of all unmanned aerial systems used by Ukrainian forces in 2024.
More than 1,000 new types of weaponry have been developed, with the ministry of defense approving over 130 in January 2025 alone, of which around 100 are made by Ukrainian manufacturers. The largest share consists of drone systems, with more than 40 models approved.
Last year, Ukraine produced over 2.5 million artillery and mortar shells and launched production of long-range drones and missiles, including the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile—which President Zelensky announced has been successfully modified into a “Long Neptune” variant with a one-thousand-kilometer range.
Trump’s Information Blackout: U.S. Media Organizations Face Funding Cuts
The Trump administration on March 15 moved to gut funding for the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which oversees Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), following an executive order signed by President Donald Trump a day earlier.
As a result, grant funding to RFE/RL was terminated, while journalists and employees at Voice of America were placed on administrative leave. In an email obtained by the Kyiv Independent, VOA employees were instructed “not to enter USAGM premises” nor “access USAGM systems,” and to “immediately surrender your official USAGM identification badge and press pass.”
“Everyone is really shocked and upset, but we saw some signs of those decisions coming,” a VOA journalist told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity, adding that employees expect termination by the end of next week.
The move follows the dismissal of Ostap Yarysh, a prominent Ukrainian correspondent at VOA, on March 7, reportedly following an inspection by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed by tech billionaire Elon Musk. On February 9, Musk called for shutting down these media outlets, writing on X: “Yes, shut them down. Europe is free now (not counting stifling bureaucracy). Nobody listens to them anymore. It’s just radical left crazy people talking to themselves while torching $1B/year of US taxpayer money.”
VOA Director Mike Abramowitz criticized the decision, noting that over 1,300 journalists, producers, and support staff were placed on leave, warning the action “will severely damage Voice of America’s ability to foster a world that is safe and free.”
Personal Becomes Political: Kelly Abandons Tesla After Musk’s “Traitor” Comment
U.S. Senator Mark Kelly announced he is selling his Tesla Model S after billionaire Elon Musk called the senator a “traitor” for visiting Ukraine just days after the U.S. paused military aid to Kyiv.
“I’m here in Washington driving to work for the last time in my Tesla,” Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, said in a video posted on X on March 14. “When I bought this thing, I didn’t think it was going to become a political issue. Every time I get in this car in the last 60 days or so, it reminds me of just how much damage Elon Musk and Donald Trump is doing to our country.”
The confrontation began when Musk, who serves as head of President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), labeled Kelly a “traitor” on X on March 10 in response to the senator’s trip to Ukraine. Kelly, a former Navy pilot and astronaut who previously worked with Musk’s SpaceX, shot back: “Traitor? Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.”
With his video announcing his vehicle change, Kelly wrote, “I bought a Tesla because it was fast like a rocket ship. But now every time I drive it; I feel like a rolling billboard for a man dismantling our government and hurting people. So, Tesla, you’re fired!” The exchange highlights the intensifying polarization surrounding U.S. support for Ukraine among American officials and business leaders.
Envoy Reassigned: Kremlin Objections Reshape Trump’s Ukraine Team
U.S. President Donald Trump appointed General Keith Kellogg as Special Envoy to Ukraine on March 15, modifying his role to communicate directly with Ukrainian leadership rather than participate in negotiations with Russia as previously intended.
Initially appointed as Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Kellogg was to be involved in direct peace talk efforts between the two countries. However, recent NBC News reports indicate that he was excluded from high-level peace talks at the Kremlin’s request, as Moscow perceived him as being too sympathetic to Ukraine.
“General Kellogg, a Highly Respected Military Expert, will deal directly with President Zelensky, and Ukrainian leadership. He knows them well, and they have a very good working relationship together,” Trump announced on Truth Social.
Kellogg previously co-authored a peace plan that would freeze the front line in Ukraine, take NATO accession off the table for an extended period, and partially lift sanctions imposed on Russia. His peace proposals also call for continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine as well as strong security guarantees to Kyiv to prevent further Russian aggression.
Kellogg visited Kyiv in late February for discussions with Ukrainian officials but has not been involved in subsequent U.S. delegations in talks with Russia, highlighting the complex diplomatic dynamics at play as the Trump administration attempts to broker a ceasefire.
Orban’s Ultimatum: Hungary Demands Ukraine’s Exclusion from EU
Budapest has issued a series of demands for the European Union, including the exclusion of Ukraine from membership in the bloc, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced on March 15.
“What does the Hungarian nation demand from Brussels?” Orban wrote on X. “Let there be peace, freedom, and unity.” He then listed 12 demands, the last of which reads: “A Union, but without Ukraine.”
Orban’s list alludes to the historical “12 points” that Hungarian reformers united behind during the country’s 1848 revolution. The right-wing nationalist has repeatedly sought to pit Hungarian identity against Ukrainian freedom and sovereignty, accusing Kyiv of discriminating against the Hungarian ethnic minority concentrated in southeastern Ukraine—a claim Kyiv denies—and using the issue to obstruct aid to Ukraine and Kyiv’s EU aspirations.
Under Orban’s government, Hungary has repeatedly clashed with the EU, leveraging its member state veto power to block sanctions against Moscow and deepening ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin despite Russia’s full-scale invasion. At an emergency summit on security for Europe and Ukraine held on March 6, 26 EU member states denounced Russian aggression and pledged continued support for Kyiv, while Hungary was the lone dissenting nation.
The EU could take further action against Budapest if tensions continue to mount. If a majority of member states agree, Hungary could even be stripped of its voting rights and veto power—a measure that would significantly impact the bloc’s ability to respond cohesively to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The Numbers Game: Military Arithmetic in Kursk and Beyond
Russian forces have continued offensive operations in Kursk Oblast without completely pushing Ukrainian forces out of the area. Geolocated footage indicates Russian advances in western Basivka, northeast of Sumy City. Russian sources claimed forces seized Zaoleshenka, Rubanshchina, and Gogolevka, and are clearing Guyevo, while Ukrainian forces reportedly maintain positions near Oleshnya and Gornal.
Elements of the Russian 11th Airborne Brigade are operating near Gogolevka, with the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and 177th Naval Infantry Regiment near Guyevo, demonstrating Russia’s commitment of elite forces to the operation.
In Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, with geolocated footage showing progress along Mykhaila Hrushevskoho Street in northern Toretsk. Meanwhile, Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar and in the Pokrovsk direction, with footage confirming advances in eastern Pishchane and western Shevchenko.
The mother and sister of a deceased man mourn amid rubble at the central district of Kherson. The Russian army carried out an airstrike on Kherson on the evening of March 14. One of the guided bombs hit a residential area killing a 43-year-old man. (Ivan Antypenko/Suspilne Ukraine via Getty Images)
On the technological front, Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted to strike a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast, continuing their campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. President Zelensky announced the successful use of the Ukrainian “Long Neptune” missile with a thousand-kilometer range, possibly deployed in the strike against the Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai.
Poland’s Nuclear Proposition: Duda Condemns Russian “Imperial Greed”
Polish President Andrzej Duda delivered a forceful denunciation of Russia for its “imperial greed” in a wide-ranging interview with the BBC published on March 15. Duda, who recently called for the U.S. to deploy its nuclear weapons to Poland, characterized Russia as an “aggressor” that invaded Ukraine and is “killing civilians” without provocation.
“Ukraine must be sovereign and independent because otherwise there will be no peace, it will only be the end of the war due to the occupation of Ukraine by Russia,” Duda stated emphatically. He dismissed accusations that U.S. President Donald Trump does not want Ukraine at the negotiating table as “false,” saying, “as I understand it, President Trump does not want to be a participant, but rather a mediator.”
The Polish leader expressed satisfaction with Ukraine’s recent meeting with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia, noting: “The meeting with Ukraine was successful, and the Russian side, as you can see, is behaving the way it is behaving.”
Duda reiterated his controversial calls for U.S. nuclear weapons to be stationed in Poland and welcomed proposals for a French nuclear umbrella to protect Europe. “It is a security issue because these weapons are not offensive, these weapons are defensive. I emphasize again, they are intended to protect primarily from a nuclear attack,” Duda argued, pointing out that “Russia, without asking anyone, deployed its nuclear weapons in Belarus.”
Diplomatic Chess: The Search for a Binding Agreement
U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio held a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on March 15 as Washington attempts to persuade Moscow to accept a 30-day ceasefire deal. According to a statement by the U.S. State Department, the two officials discussed steps to restore contacts between their countries, agreeing “to continue working towards restoring communication.”
This diplomatic effort comes as Russia hesitates to implement a ceasefire, despite Ukraine’s agreement to a temporary halt in hostilities. President Trump claimed during a speech on March 14 that the White House has received “some pretty good news” regarding its attempts to secure a ceasefire agreement, though he did not specify details.
The diplomatic landscape is further complicated by varied international responses to potential security guarantees for Ukraine. While the UK and France have been vocal in supporting troops on the ground, other nations have expressed reservations. Italy stated it does not plan to participate in a peacekeeping force on the ground in eastern Ukraine, though it will continue to work with allies to “define credible and effective security guarantees.”
As negotiations continue, the battlefield situation remains fluid, with Russian forces conducting offensive operations across multiple fronts while diplomatic efforts struggle to find common ground for a sustainable ceasefire that protects Ukraine’s sovereignty without yielding to maximalist Russian demands.