The Phantom Truce: Promises Made, Promises Broken

As Putin and Trump Negotiate a Partial Ceasefire, Russian Missiles Continue to Fall While Ukraine Returns 175 POWs in Major Exchange

Summary of the Day – March 19, 2025

The third day of intensifying diplomatic activity between the White House and Kremlin produced a tantalizing glimpse of what peace might look like, even as the battlefield reality told a drastically different story. President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure during a call with U.S. President Donald Trump—mirroring Putin’s similar pledge a day prior—but overnight strikes across Ukraine betrayed Moscow’s true intentions. Meanwhile, Germany’s outgoing government unlocked an additional $3.3 billion in military aid, and Ukraine brought home 175 prisoners of war in one of the largest exchanges of the conflict.

A Ceasefire in Name Only: Russian Strikes Continue Despite Putin’s Pledge

Hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin promised U.S. President Donald Trump a 30-day pause in attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, air raid sirens blared across Ukraine. The overnight barrage on March 19 included 145 drones and six missiles targeting energy facilities in multiple regions. Russian drones struck a hospital in Sumy Oblast and a railway power system in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, causing a fire that prompted Ukrzaliznytsia to dispatch emergency crews. When those crews arrived, Russian forces launched a second strike on the same location.

“This is what ‘immediate ceasefire on all energy and infrastructure’ looks like,” wrote Oleksandr Shevchenko, Deputy Director at Ukrzaliznytsia, sharing video of the attack.

Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed it had neutralized its own drones that were en route to Ukrainian energy targets, with six allegedly downed by Pantsir air defense systems and one intercepted by a fighter jet. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius dismissed these claims, telling broadcaster ZDF: “Putin is playing a game,” and noting that Russian attacks had “not eased at all in the first night after this supposedly ground-breaking, great phone call.”

The Art of the Energy Deal: Trump Proposes American Ownership of Ukrainian Power Plants

In his hour-long call with Zelensky, Trump offered an unexpected proposal: American ownership of Ukrainian power plants as “the best protection” for that infrastructure. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump suggested that the U.S. could be “very helpful in running the plants with its electricity and utility expertise.”

The proposal emerged amid discussions about the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant—Europe’s largest nuclear facility. Zelensky has insisted that returning the plant without Ukrainian control over Enerhodar, the city where it’s located, isn’t feasible. “You can’t just say: here’s the plant, and the city is separate,” he stated on March 14.

Ukrainian energy expert Oleksandr Kharchenko framed the issue beyond energy policy: “This is a political, military, perhaps diplomatic, but definitely not an energy question.”

Freedom at Last: 175 Ukrainian Defenders Return Home in Major Prisoner Exchange

In one of the conflict’s largest prisoner swaps, 175 Ukrainian soldiers returned home through a one-for-one exchange with Russia, with an additional 22 severely wounded servicemembers returned outside the main exchange. The United Arab Emirates mediated the swap, which came shortly after the Trump-Putin call.

A group of men carrying blue and yellow capes

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One hundred and seventy-five Ukrainian soldiers returned home from Russian captivity as part of a one-for-one exchange. (Volodymyr Zelensky / Telegram)

“This is one of the largest exchanges. Our soldiers, sergeants and officers are returning. The soldiers who fought for our freedom in the Armed Forces, Navy, National Guard, Territorial Defense Forces and Border Guard,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram.

The returnees included defenders of Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant and veterans of battles in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kursk oblasts. Many had been seriously wounded or prosecuted by Russia for crimes they did not commit, according to Zelensky.

Since the beginning of the full-scale war, 3,956 Ukrainians have returned from Russian captivity, with 1,358 released in 2025 alone.

Germany Breaks the Bank: Outgoing Government Releases $3.3 Billion for Ukraine

In a significant development for Ukraine’s defense capabilities, Germany’s outgoing government agreed to release an additional 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) in military assistance. The decision represents a breakthrough for outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had long blocked the package unless it was financed by additional borrowing.

The parliamentary budget committee is expected to approve the funds on March 21, contingent on the Bundesrat approving reforms proposed by incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Germany remains Ukraine’s largest military donor in Europe, and its role is likely to grow as Trump seeks to reduce American involvement on the continent.

The package includes 2.547 billion euros from the German budget, with the remainder reimbursed by the European Peace Facility, supplementing the 4 billion euros already allocated for 2025. Finance Minister Joerg Kukies also plans to authorize approximately 8.252 billion euros in military aid between 2026 and 2029.

This follows the German parliament’s approval of a massive defense spending bill that could put Germany on a path to rival Russia for military dominance. The legislation, which passed with a 513-207 vote, designated future defense spending as exempt from strict constitutional deficit limits, potentially unlocking up to 500 billion euros for defense over the next decade.

The Road to Riyadh: Technical Teams to Discuss Ceasefire Implementation

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz announced that talks between Russian and American delegations will take place “in the coming days” in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia after discussions with Yuri Ushakov, a close adviser to Putin.

“We agreed our technical teams would meet in Riyadh to focus on implementing and expanding the partial ceasefire President Trump secured from Russia,” Waltz wrote on X.

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, expressed optimism that a full ceasefire could be reached “in a couple of weeks.” The Riyadh talks, led by Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will build on previous U.S.-Russia meetings in the Saudi capital.

Zelensky outlined Ukraine’s participation: “From our side, there will definitely be military officials, engineers, and people who understand port infrastructure,” noting the focus would be on infrastructure, energy, and the security of shipping routes.

Ukrainian Drone Strike Halts Operations at Russian Oil Station

Ukrainian drones attacked the Kavkazskaya oil pumping station in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai overnight on March 19, according to Russian authorities. The strike reportedly damaged a pipeline connecting storage tanks, igniting a fire that covered approximately 20 square meters. Thirty on-duty personnel were evacuated, and the facility suspended operations, though no casualties were reported.

The Kavkazskaya oil transshipment point is a critical component in Russia’s energy export infrastructure, connecting a railroad oil terminal and the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station. It forms part of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium system, which pumps up to 6 million metric tons of oil annually.

The strike follows Ukraine’s February 17 drone attack on the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station, also in Krasnodar Krai, where seven drones reportedly hit key infrastructure.

Kremlin’s Shifting Narrative: Confusion Over Ceasefire Terms

As diplomatic activity intensified, Russian and American officials issued conflicting statements about what had been agreed upon during the Trump-Putin call. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated the temporary ceasefire only applies to “energy infrastructure facilities,” while declining to comment on the White House statement that it covered “energy and infrastructure.”

Trump told the Washington Examiner that Russia agreed to “an immediate ceasefire on energy and infrastructure,” while U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff stated it covers “energy and infrastructure in general.”

Analysts suggest Putin is deliberately creating confusion to falsely blame Ukraine for violations before any agreement is officially implemented. The Institute for the Study of War noted: “Such Russian claims are attempts to take advantage of the lack of clarity about the details of the ceasefire that the Kremlin is injecting.”

America’s Patriot Promise: Trump Agrees to Find Additional Air Defense Systems

During his call with Zelensky, Trump agreed to assist Ukraine in finding additional U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems available in Europe. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Zelensky asked specifically for Patriot missile systems to protect Ukrainian civilians, and Trump committed to locating available systems.

The highly advanced Patriot systems have been crucial in protecting Ukrainian airspace, capable of downing even the most sophisticated ballistic missiles, such as Russia’s Kinzhals. Throughout the full-scale war, Ukraine has repeatedly called for additional air defense assets to protect its cities and energy infrastructure from Russian strikes.

Shifting American Opinion: Public Support for Ukraine Rises as Trump Seeks Rapprochement with Russia

Nearly half of Americans believe the U.S. is not doing enough to support Ukraine, according to a Gallup poll published on March 18. The survey revealed that 46% of Americans believe Washington provides insufficient assistance—16% more than in December and higher than the previous peak of 38% recorded in August 2022.

The poll found 53% of Americans say the U.S. should back Ukraine until all its territories are restored, even if it takes time. If Russia breaks a potential truce, 64% would support increased military aid, 42% would back airstrikes on Russian military facilities in Ukraine, and 30% would favor deploying U.S. troops.

This rising support could pressure the Trump administration to shift its policy, particularly if Russia violates the ceasefire agreement currently being negotiated.

Potential War Crime: Russian Commander Describes Perfidy Tactics

The Russian Ministry of Defense’s Main Military-Political Directorate Deputy Head and Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander, Major General Apti Alaudinov, described deception tactics that may constitute perfidy—a war crime under the Geneva Convention. Alaudinov claimed that Russian forces recently used blue electrical tape identification marks during an operation in Kursk Oblast, knowing that Ukrainian forces also use blue tape for identification.

“We were supposed to have blue tape for the first 24 hours of the operation and then change it to red [tape],” Alaudinov told TASS, explaining that the tactic was designed to “prevent the Ukrainian military from understanding what was happening” and to make them “think that their own units were advancing.”

The Geneva Convention defines perfidy as “acts inviting the confidence of an adversary to lead him to believe that he is entitled to, or is obliged to accord, protection under the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, with intent to betray that confidence.”

Battle for Territory: Ukrainian and Russian Forces Exchange Blows Across Multiple Fronts

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast and near Pokrovsk, while Russian forces made gains near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Geolocated footage published on March 18 and 19 indicated that Ukrainian forces had advanced south and southwest of Demidovka, along the international border northwest of Belgorod City.

In the Chasiv Yar direction, Russian forces advanced along Marii Ulianovoi Street in western Chasiv Yar, according to geolocated footage published on March 18. Additional footage showed Russian gains northeast of Druzhba (east of Toretsk), north of Toretsk, and along Komarova Street in southwestern Toretsk.

The commander of a Ukrainian drone platoon operating in the Novopavlivka direction reported that Russian forces are changing tactics, abandoning large mechanized assaults due to changing weather conditions and increased visibility in favor of smaller infantry groups.

The Balance of Power: Ukraine’s Position Strengthens as External Pressure Mounts

Amid intensifying diplomatic activity, Zelensky’s political position may be strengthening rather than weakening, according to political analysts. Recent polling shows a sharp rise in his approval ratings, with the increase directly tied to Ukraine’s growing rift with the United States, creating a strong rally-round-the-flag effect.

When Trump cast Zelensky as the obstacle to his “instant peace” plan, the Ukrainian president became positioned as a leader standing up to a powerful external force demanding concessions. As in past crises, Ukrainian political survival depends on defiance, not accommodation.

One February poll showed that 44% of Ukrainians would vote for Zelensky in a hypothetical first round of elections—the highest among all potential candidates. Former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi followed with 21%, ex-President Petro Poroshenko with 10%, and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko with 6%.

The irony, analysts note, is that those most eager to see Zelensky replaced—whether in Washington or Moscow—may have done the most to secure his continued leadership by attempting to sideline him and painting him as an obstacle to negotiations.

F-16 Reinforcements: New Fighter Jets Arrive in Ukraine

A new shipment of Western F-16 fighter jets has arrived in Ukraine, Zelensky confirmed on March 19. While the president did not reveal the exact number of jets delivered, he stated that “several F-16 aircraft have arrived in Ukraine” and dismissed Russian claims that one had been shot down in Sumy Oblast.

Ukraine has received F-16s from several countries, with the Netherlands committing 24 aircraft, Denmark pledging 19, and Norway promising between 6 and 22. The fighter jets serve both offensive and defensive purposes, including intercepting Russian missiles and drones during aerial strikes and launching attacks against Russian positions along the front line.

Europe’s Growing Concern: National Security Agencies Suspend Cooperation with U.S.

Some U.S. national security agencies have suspended cooperation with international partners in countering Russian sabotage and cyber operations, Reuters reported, citing undisclosed official sources. Under former President Biden, the National Security Council coordinated the effort of at least seven security agencies working with European partners to disrupt Russia’s escalating hybrid activities across Europe.

Since Trump took office on January 20, the National Security Council has reportedly ceased coordinating these efforts, and expected meetings with European partners have not taken place. The development has raised concerns in Europe that Washington might cut a peace deal unfavorable to its allies.

Looking Ahead: The Prospect of Peace Remains Distant

As diplomatic efforts continue to gain momentum, the gulf between words and actions remains vast. The contradiction between Putin’s pledge to halt energy infrastructure strikes and the reality of continued attacks underscores the challenges in reaching any lasting ceasefire, let alone a comprehensive peace agreement.

With technical teams set to meet in Riyadh and Trump expressing optimism about a ceasefire “in a couple of weeks,” the coming days will be critical in determining whether diplomatic overtures can translate into meaningful progress on the ground. For now, the phantom truce remains just that—a shadow of what could be, while the grim reality of war continues across Ukraine.

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