Summary of the day: The US Department of Defense announced a new security assistance package for Ukraine, including $200 million from the Presidential Drawdown Authority and an additional $1.5 billion from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Meanwhile, the Kremlin intensified its efforts to enforce behavioral norms within Russia and among migrant communities. Ukrainian drones struck Russian energy infrastructure in multiple regions, while Russian forces made confirmed advances northeast of Kharkiv City, in Vovchansk, near Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City. Additionally, the Russian government is taking steps to utilize migrants and newly naturalized citizens for military personnel needs.
Picture of the day:
Ukraine’s Olga Kharlan celebrates after winning against South Korea’s Choi Se-bin in the women’s sabre individual bronze medal bout during the Paris 2024 Olympic Games at the Grand Palais in Paris. (Fabrice CoffriniI / AFP via Getty Images)
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Sunday that Washington’s plans to deploy longer-range missiles to Germany have freed Russia from previous nuclear agreements. As a result, Moscow will resume producing medium and short-range nuclear missiles. Putin stated that if the US follows through with its plans, Russia will consider itself liberated from the moratorium on deploying these missiles. These missiles, which can travel between 300 and 3,400 miles, were originally banned by the 1987 INF Treaty between the US and the Soviet Union. The treaty ended in 2019, with the US blaming Russia for noncompliance.
Germany announced that it will not be intimidated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to deploy medium and shorter-range missiles in response to Washington’s plan to deploy missiles to Europe. German Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer stated, “We will not be intimidated by such statements.” Washington said it would start episodic deployments of long-range missiles in Germany by 2026, including SM-6, Tomahawk, and hypersonic weapons. In response, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and President Putin suggested that Russia might deploy nuclear-armed missiles. Putin reiterated this stance on July 28, emphasizing that Russia will mirror the US actions and enhance its coastal forces’ capabilities.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian navy began scheduled exercises involving 20,000 personnel and 300 ships. The drills aim to assess command structures across the Northern, Pacific, and Baltic fleets, as well as the Caspian Flotilla. Approximately 300 surface ships, submarines, support vessels, 50 aircraft, and over 200 military units will participate. The exercises include anti-aircraft missile launches, artillery firing, and targeting training. Since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia has conducted various military drills, including with China and South Africa, and exercises involving nuclear missile launchers.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian and Ukrainian sources report that new Russian “Gerbera” drones, made of foam and plywood, are produced in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. These drones, resembling Iranian Shahed drones and costing about $10,000 each, likely serve as decoys to distract Ukrainian air defenses while transmitting their details back to Russian forces using a SIM card. Reuters noted that these drones have been used in at least five attacks over the past month for reconnaissance and long-range airstrikes. Meanwhile, Ukraine has started using AI to pilot some of its drones to counter Russian signal jamming and manage larger UAV groups. Swarmer, one of over 200 tech firms that emerged since Russia’s 2022 invasion, is developing these AI-enabled drones to enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces likely seized the entire Vovchansk Aggregate Plant in Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, and continued attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Geolocated footage shows a Ukrainian drone strike on ordinance at the plant, suggesting Russian control. Fighting continued near Hlyboke and within Vovchansk, with a Russian blogger reporting four Ukrainian counterattacks near Starytsya.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without any confirmed frontline changes. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks near Synkivka, Novoosynove, Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, Novoserhiivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Terny, and Torske. A Russian blogger noted that the fighting is mainly positional after increased Russian offensives in early July.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
President Zelensky described the fighting in Donetsk Oblast as “extremely challenging,” with Russian forces focusing their offensive on Pokrovsk. Despite the tense situation, Zelensky affirmed Ukraine’s strength to achieve its goals. Russian troops have been gaining ground, with Pokrovsk and Toretsk facing heavy attacks. Located 70 kilometers northwest of occupied Donetsk, Pokrovsk is a key logistics hub. Ukrainian forces are courageously holding their defense despite significant Russian efforts to break through. Moscow’s troops are also attempting offensives west of Avdiivka and Marinka, which were captured after being largely destroyed. Earlier in July, Ukraine withdrew from Urozhaine to protect its personnel following its destruction by Russian forces.
Siversk
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations near Siversk without any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported unsuccessful Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, and Pereizne. Russian units, including BARS-31 drone operators.
Chasiv Yar
Russian milbloggers claim that Russian forces are advancing in eastern Chasiv Yar. They report breaking through Ukrainian defenses along the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal and consolidating positions in the Novyi and Zhovtnevyi microraions. Some milbloggers suggest Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian troops out of the Orlovo forest area, although this lacks visual confirmation. Maps indicate Russian control of most of the Orlovo forest area but note they haven’t crossed the canal’s water area, only parts where it runs underground. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks near Vasyukivka, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued heavy attacks in the Toretsk direction and reportedly made advances. Russian milbloggers claim ongoing attacks and progress in southwestern Niu York, southwest of Yurivka, and in Zalizne and Pivnichne. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed attacks near Toretsk, Niu York, Pivnichne, and Zalizne, and reported that Russian forces are using guided glide bombs to strike Toretsk.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made significant advances northwest of Avdiivka, aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk direction. Geolocated footage confirms Russian control of western Novoselivka Persha and advances near Vovche, Lozuvatske, and Netaylove. The Russian MoD claimed their forces seized Vovche. Russian sources report control over more than half of Vesele and advances toward Novohrodivka and Selydove. The Ukrainian General Staff noted high Russian attack rates northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka, particularly near Prohres, Novooleksandrivka, Timofiivka, and Zhelanne.
About 500 people are being evacuated monthly from the frontline town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, according to city administration head Serhii Dobriak. The Pokrovsk area has seen intense fighting, with Ukrainian troops repelling 36 attacks in one day. Dobriak stated that 60,000 people, including 4,000 children, remain in Pokrovsk, while another 4,000 children have been evacuated. The town is currently 20 kilometers from the front line, and efforts to build fortifications are ongoing. Ukrainian authorities have faced criticism for slow progress on defensive lines, but Governor Vadym Filashkin reported that the third line of fortifications in Donetsk Oblast was 90% complete as of late June.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced southwest of Donetsk City, continuing their offensive operations. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces reaching a windbreak south of Kostyantynivka. Russian milbloggers claim advances to the outskirts of northern Krasnohorivka, though this is unconfirmed. The Ukrainian General Staff reported unsuccessful Russian attacks near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Antonivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to Mariupol’s exiled mayor, reported a sharp increase in the transport of Russian military equipment toward Zaporizhzhia Oblast through occupied Mariupol. This follows confirmation that Russia has recently sent at least 2,000 additional troops to Zaporizhzhia. Despite amassing 90,000 troops in the area, significant changes in hostilities are deemed unlikely. Over the weekend, Russian tracked vehicles moved toward Zaporizhzhia, pausing near Manhush and Nikolske. Andriushchenko noted new markings on the equipment, with triangles inside triangles, and the use of white trucks to transport troops. Mariupol is becoming a military hub with bases, warehouses, and fortifications.
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area without confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling attacks near Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast without any confirmed frontline changes. Fighting occurred near Robotyne, Hulyaipole, Mala Tokmachka, Verbove, Novodanylivka, and Novoandriivka.
Ukraine reported that Russian forces resumed attacks toward Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast after a long pause. Dmytro Lykhovyi, spokesperson for the Tavria group of forces, said Moscow’s troops attempted assaults from Reshetylivske in two directions but were not forming a major offensive group. The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported ongoing battles near Mala Tokmachka, Hulyaipole, Novodanylivka, and Novoandriivka. Lykhovyi denied claims of Russian gains in other areas of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and disputed reports that Russia had seized Robotyne, stating there were no major changes in the sector.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Positional engagements continued in east bank Kherson Oblast and the Dnipro River Delta islands.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched limited drone and missile strikes against Ukraine. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that Ukrainian forces shot down a Kh-59/69 missile and 9 out of 10 Shahed drones launched from occupied territories.
Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office charged in absentia two pro-Russian collaborators, Serhii Yevsiukov and Dmytro Neiolov, who managed the Olenivka POW camp in occupied territories, where dozens of POWs were killed in a 2022 explosion. The investigation involved statements from 20 victims and 30 eyewitnesses, along with forensic evidence. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) also charged the two with murder. The explosion at the Olenivka camp in June 2022 killed 54 POWs and injured over 150. Ukrainian authorities claim Russia targeted Ukrainian members of the Azov Regiment and used a thermobaric munition, while Russia blamed a Ukrainian HIMARS strike. The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights rejected the HIMARS claim and noted that Russia has not allowed independent investigators to access the site.
Ukraine urged the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to investigate a deadly attack on the Olenivka prison in occupied eastern Ukraine, which occurred two years ago. The attack killed at least 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and injured around 130. The Olenivka facility held thousands of Ukrainian POWs, including Azov battalion members. Ukrainian rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets called the attack a terrorist act and demanded an investigation. President Zelensky insisted that Russia must be held accountable. Ukraine’s foreign ministry reported that Russia obstructed independent investigations. The UN Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine stated the explosions were not caused by Ukrainian HIMARS rockets, based on interviews and video analysis. Both sides continue to blame each other for the attack.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained six people suspected of setting fire to over 15 off-road military vehicles in Odesa. The suspects, aged 18 to 24, allegedly acted on orders from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). They connected with a Russian operative via Telegram seeking easy money. Supervised by an FSB handler, the suspects worked mostly in pairs, with one setting fires and the other filming. During the day, they worked as food delivery couriers, using company scooters to locate military vehicles, which they targeted at night despite a curfew.
Fencer Olga Kharlan won Ukraine’s first medal at the 2024 Olympics, taking bronze in the women’s individual saber event. Oleksii Sereda and Kirill Boliukh finished fifth in the men’s synchronized 10m platform, and the men’s artistic gymnastics team also placed fifth. Rowers Stanislav Kovaliov and Ihor Khmara advanced to the semi-finals, while tennis players Marta Kostiuk and Dayana Yastremska, as well as Liudmyla and Nadiia Kichenok, moved to the second round in doubles, with Elina Svitolina reaching the third round of singles. Judoka Daria Bilodid, swimmer Mykhailo Romanchuk, and shooter Olena Kostevych did not advance in their events. Swimmer Nika Sharafutdinova, fencers Alina Komashchuk and Olena Kravatska, table tennis player Yaroslav Zhmudenko, and boxer Dmytro Lovchynskyi also did not advance.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 0
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is expanding its defense industry with help from Western partners. President Zelensky discussed developing Ukraine’s missile program on July 23, aiming to produce its own missiles instead of relying on allies. On the same day, Boeing announced a partnership with Ukrainian defense company Antonov for defense projects, including drones.
Ukraine is effectively using Soviet-era weaponry in the conflict with Russia. The 60-year-old S-125 air defense launchers have been successful against modern Russian missiles and drones. The RPD light machine gun, designed in 1943, is used for trench clearing due to its reliability and high rate of fire. In the battle for Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces employed the PM M1910 heavy machine gun, a water-cooled weapon from 1910, which is effective for sustained fire in defensive positions. Despite their age, these weapons are valuable for their robust design and availability in large quantities, demonstrating Ukraine’s resourcefulness and the strategic importance of legacy arsenals.
Ukraine’s Allies
Western countries continue to supply Ukraine with military aid. On July 23, German company Rheinmetall announced an order to build an ammunition factory in Ukraine. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala stated that Ukraine will receive 500,000 artillery shells by the end of 2024, and Czechia’s Defense Minister announced a new project, “Initiative-2025,” to purchase more ammunition for Ukraine. The UK Ministry of Defense will provide £176 million ($226 million) worth of military equipment, including Lightweight Multirole Missiles. Spain will send a Hawk air defense battery in September 2024. The Netherlands and Denmark will jointly deliver 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks in summer 2024, and Germany and Denmark will supply eight Leopard 1A5 tanks. Germany will also provide 21,000 rounds of ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft guns and 10 unmanned surface vessels.
The US Department of Defense announced $200 million in security aid to Ukraine from the Presidential Drawdown Authority and $1.5 billion from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. These packages include air defense interceptors, munitions for rocket and artillery systems, anti-tank weapons, HIMARS ammunition, NASAMS munitions, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, electronic warfare equipment, and other military gear. This marks the 20th USAI package and 62nd equipment tranche provided to Ukraine by the Biden administration since August 2021. A U.S. Government Accountability Office report on July 25 revealed $2 billion in accounting errors, allowing the Defense Department to send an additional $2 billion in weapons to Ukraine.
Berlin has delivered eight Leopard 1 A5 tanks, 21,000 rounds of Gepard anti-aircraft gun ammunition, and other military aid to Ukraine. The aid package includes two Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicles, 10 unmanned surface vessels, 10 ground surveillance radars, 24,810 combat helmets, and one field hospital. The tanks were part of a joint initiative with Denmark. Berlin plans to increase its military aid to Ukraine by 3.8 billion euros ($4.13 billion) in 2024, but aid will be cut by half in 2025, according to a draft budget document.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb assured citizens there is no threat to domestic security after Ukrainian airstrikes hit a Russian airfield 120 miles from the Finnish border. Ukrainian drones reportedly destroyed a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber at Olenya airbase near Finland’s northeastern border and at Dyagilevo airbase southeast of Moscow. Stubb stated that Finland is in control of the situation and capable of responding. He emphasized that Ukraine must use all its assets to win the war, including strikes, and that Russia will continue hybrid attacks. Stubb also discussed the situation with Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.
Russia News
Ukrainian drones struck Russian energy and utility infrastructure in Oryol, Voronezh, and Belgorod oblasts, causing damage to a power plant, utility facility, and a fire at a power substation. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have destroyed several drones over Belgorod and Voronezh and intercepted over three dozen drones across Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Bryansk, and Leningrad regions. Additionally, Ukrainian forces hit the Olenya military airfield in Murmansk Oblast on July 26-27, damaging a Tu-22M3 bomber. Ukraine’s General Staff reported strikes on several traction substations in Kursk Oblast, resulting in power outages in Ponyrovsky, Solntsevsky, and Kursky districts. These attacks targeted facilities supporting Russian military logistics, including the Polyova oil depot. Kursk Oblast, bordering Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, has faced regular attacks on military facilities and infrastructure in recent months.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) conducted a cyberattack against Russia’s central bank, affecting its services around 11 a.m. local time. This is part of an ongoing cyber campaign since July 23 targeting major Russian banks, including Gazprombank, VTB, Raiffeisen Bank, and Alfa Bank. The attack also disrupted online services of Gazprombank and Bank Zenit, as well as telecommunications providers. Russian users experienced issues with broker applications, ATMs, social media, messengers, internet providers, and payment systems. The central bank’s website remains intermittently accessible within Russia but is inaccessible from abroad.
The Kremlin is tightening control over information and behavior within Russia by approving amendments that allow the president to restrict information to protect national security and morality. These changes give the federal censor, Roskomnadzor, the power to manage networks and remove prohibited content, and require social media administrators with over 10,000 followers to provide personal information. In addition, authorities are linking information control with migrant behavior. Russian Liberal Democratic Party Head Leonid Slutsky proposed a “Migrant Code” to enforce integration into Russian norms, while State Duma Deputy Speaker Irina Yarovaya announced new policies to combat illegal immigration and false documentation. A bill also aims to limit migrants to 10 SIM cards each. Following a rebellion by Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin is promoting self-censorship among bloggers and cracking down on dissent, labeling 55 opposition groups as “extremist” to suppress criticism. The Kremlin is also addressing ultranationalist complaints about migrants by implementing measures to control migrant behavior and recruit them into military service, though not effectively tackling Islamic extremism.
Tuareg rebels posed with a Ukrainian flag after defeating Wagner mercenaries in Mali. Andriy Yusov from Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) confirmed the rebels received crucial information for their successful operation against Wagner, which took place near Tinzaouatene on July 25 and 26, resulting in at least 20 Wagner militants killed and others captured. Wagner has been extracting resources in Africa to fund Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Tuaregs’ support for Ukraine is evident as they continue to target Wagner across Africa. HUR is suspected of recent drone strikes on Russian air bases and an oil refinery, along with cyber-attacks on Russian ATMs. Russia claims Ukraine’s HUR is training Tuareg militants to engage in conflicts against Russian forces.
The recent Tuareg insurgent ambush on the Wagner Group in northern Mali has highlighted distrust between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Wagner Group, with many pro-Wagner commentators accusing the MoD of exploiting Wagner’s losses to replace them with the MoD’s Africa Corps. Some milbloggers suggest the MoD plans to supplant Wagner in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Criticism of Wagner’s leadership and calls for better preparation for Russian forces abroad underscore the tension between Wagner and the MoD. However, the Africa Corps likely cannot replace Wagner operations in Mali due to recent deployments to Ukraine. Replacing Wagner after recent losses would require redirecting Africa Corps fighters from Ukraine to Mali, which is not currently a priority for the Russian military command.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian government is taking steps to use migrants and newly naturalized citizens for military needs. State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin proposed requiring new citizens to register for military service upon receiving their passports. The Duma will also consider extending military service for new citizens from one year to two and raising the draft age. Russian authorities are reportedly detaining and abusing migrants to coerce them into signing military contracts, threatening to revoke citizenship and promising citizenship to migrants who join the military. Raids on migrants have increased since the March 2024 terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall.
Russian regions are increasing monetary incentives to boost military recruitment. At least nine regions, including Voronezh, Yaroslavl, Arkhangelsk, Kaluga, and Ivanovo oblasts; the Sakha, Tatarstan, and Mordovia republics; and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, offer referral bonuses from 5,000 to 100,000 rubles ($58 to $1,160) for bringing a friend to sign a military contract. Similar programs may start in the Udmurt Republic and Bryansk Oblast.
Ravi Moun, a 22-year-old Indian citizen recruited into the Russian army, died in the war against Ukraine, citing his relatives. Moscow has been recruiting foreigners, including from Nepal, Somalia, India, and Cuba, to fight in Ukraine to limit conscription among Russians. Moun, the fifth Indian to die in the conflict, traveled to Russia in January for a job in the transportation sector but was inducted into the military. He was sent to the front line in March. After losing contact, Moun’s brother learned from the Indian Embassy in Moscow that Moun had died. In July, Moscow agreed to release all Indians serving in its armed forces and began compensating their families. The Indian government is working to bring about 50 Indians back home.
Russia’s Allies
Belarus and Russia continue Union State integration. Russian President Putin ordered the signing of a treaty for a unified electrical energy market. Belarusian President Lukashenko discussed key projects like microelectronics and aircraft manufacturing. Both leaders agreed to address integration challenges, including creating a Union State media holding, before their next meeting this fall.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to cut off diesel supplies to Ukraine if Kyiv does not resume the transit of Russian Lukoil oil to Central Europe. He stated that if the oil transit isn’t resumed soon, Slovnaft, Slovakia’s oil refining company, will halt diesel fuel supply to Ukraine, which covers 10% of its consumption. Kyiv’s sanctions in June blocked Lukoil’s pipeline oil transit to cut off Kremlin income but allowed other Russian oil exporters to continue. Fico, a pro-Russian populist who stopped military aid to Ukraine after taking office in September 2023, criticized the sanctions, saying Slovakia won’t be a “hostage” to Ukrainian-Russian relations. The restrictions have caused oil shortages in Budapest, which relies heavily on Russian oil.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Top U.S. intelligence officials revealed that the Kremlin is using unsuspecting Americans and Russian PR firms to spread disinformation about the U.S. presidential race. This follows a turbulent period in U.S. politics, with Russia, Iran, and China adjusting their propaganda strategies. Officials warn that online content, especially on social media, could be foreign propaganda. Russia is the biggest threat, with Iran increasing its activities and China being cautious about the 2024 election. The Kremlin is using marketing firms in Russia to produce and conceal digital propaganda. New U.S. sanctions targeted two such firms in March. The disinformation focuses on candidates, voting processes, and contentious issues like immigration and crime. There have been twice as many warnings issued during the 2024 election cycle compared to 2022, indicating increased interest from adversaries and improved government detection efforts.
Ukraine’s Strategic Command reported that Russian sources have been spreading false narratives over the past week. These narratives aim to create discontent about mobilization, discredit the Orthodox Church of Ukraine and Ukrainian authorities, and demoralize Ukrainians.
Russian independent outlet Mozhem Obyasnit reported that Alexei Gromov, First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration, instructed pro-Kremlin media to criticize the Paris Olympic Games.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com