Summary of the day: Ukrainian intelligence identified three Russian strategies aimed at destabilizing Ukraine, with assessments suggesting Russian forces may target Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts in late May or early June but are unlikely to seize major cities. Information warfare remains a key tactic for Russia, focusing on undermining Ukrainian mobilization and President Zelensky’s legitimacy. Meanwhile, the US Department of State determined that Russian forces are violating the Chemical Weapons Convention. In Russia, Putin’s meeting with Wagner Group-affiliate Dyumin suggests power balancing efforts, possibly in response to recent arrests and military goals. Additionally, confirmed Russian troop advancements west of Avdiivka signal ongoing military maneuvers amidst strained relations with Central Asian migrants and Georgia’s adoption of a “foreign agents” law.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
NATO condemned Russia’s “hybrid actions” like espionage, military sabotage, and disinformation across multiple countries, including Estonia, Germany, and the UK. Numerous arrests linked to these activities highlight growing concerns over Russia’s influence in Europe. Amid increasing tensions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO is intensifying its security measures, including conducting large-scale cyber defense exercises. European leaders warn of potential Russian attacks on NATO, estimating possible aggression by 2027. Despite current indications of no immediate threat, NATO remains vigilant against future escalations.
The American military battalion stationed in Lithuania will now remain in the country indefinitely, extending beyond the originally planned departure in 2025, according to Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas. This decision, confirmed during Kasciunas’s visit to Washington, underscores the U.S. commitment to NATO’s defense strategy against Moscow, particularly in light of heightened tensions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. has increased its military presence in Lithuania since 2019, and recent reinforcements have strengthened the battalion. Additionally, the U.S. continues to enhance the military capabilities of Baltic states through the Baltic Security Initiative, with significant funding allocated for developing various defense sectors. This ongoing support is part of a broader strategy to deter Russian aggression in the Baltic region.
French President Emmanuel Macron, in an interview with the Economist, expressed openness to sending troops to Ukraine if there is a significant Russian military advance or if Ukraine formally requests such support, conditions which he noted do not currently exist. Macron emphasized the existential threat posed by Russia’s invasion to Europe’s security, underscoring the need for Europe to fortify its own defenses independently of the U.S. He stressed the importance of Europe not setting fixed red lines in security strategy to prevent Russia from winning in Ukraine, which would compromise European stability. Macron drew parallels between potential military support for Ukraine and France’s past assistance in the Sahel, where France intervened at those nations’ requests. The interview also comes ahead of a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which Macron intends to push for Chinese influence over Russia to help end the war. Macron has consistently advocated for enhancing European defense capabilities and supporting Ukraine militarily, themes he reiterated in his April 25 speech at Sorbonne University.
Following the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22, Russian security measures targeting Central Asian migrants have intensified, causing tensions with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Kyrgyz Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised citizens to avoid travel to Russia due to increased border controls and unannounced entry denials. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied targeting specific ethnic or religious groups, a claim contradicted by Tajik officials. Observers note a continued crackdown on Muslim communities in Russia, with no signs of reduction.
The Georgian parliament has advanced a controversial “foreign agents” law, requiring NGOs and media receiving over 20% of their funding from abroad to register with the government, a move like repressive Russian legislation. Despite ongoing protests in Tbilisi and strong opposition from both local figures and Western officials concerned about its impact on Georgia’s EU integration prospects, the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has ties to anti-Western sentiments, may override President Zurabishvili’s veto threat. The final vote is set for May 17. Concurrently, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has declined a U.S. visit because the invitation required suspending discussions on this law. U.S. Ambassador to Tbilisi, Robin Dunnigan, stated that negotiating under such conditions contradicts the spirit of partnership. This law, if enacted, could severely affect Georgia’s chances of EU membership.
Belarusian Major General Alexander Bas engaged in discussions with Iranian officials regarding Belarusian-Iranian cooperation in combat training during his visit to Tehran on May 2. This visit was part of the “Security Belt 2024” command and staff exercise, which concluded on the same day.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian and US intelligence agree that Russian efforts to destabilize Ukraine are ongoing, focusing on military operations amid Ukrainian shortages. Ukrainian General Skibitskyi suggests Russian forces aim to seize Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts before May 9. While Chasiv Yar is under threat, major Ukrainian cities are unlikely to fall soon. Tactical successes near Avdiivka noted, but no significant threat posed currently.
Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), predicts that Russian forces may launch an offensive towards Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts by late May or early June, with a concentration of 35,000 personnel already amassed at the border, aiming for a total of 50,000 to 70,000. However, he believes they won’t likely capture the cities, expecting only localized gains. Ukrainian forces are monitoring the situation and reinforcing defenses in vulnerable areas.
US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines informed the US Senate Armed Services Committee on May 2 that Russian President Vladimir Putin perceives current trends favorably for Russia. Russian forces are capable of tactical breakthroughs in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts, with a focus on revitalizing defense industry and disrupting Ukrainian logistics. Putin’s aggressive tactics aim to pressure Ukraine into negotiation without concessions.
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi noted that the Kremlin views information operations as a second line of effort to defeat Ukraine and that current Russian information operations heavily focus on undermining Ukrainian mobilization efforts and the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Skibitskyi emphasizes Russia’s diplomatic efforts to isolate Ukraine, while Foreign Minister Kuleba urges the West to show Ukraine’s alignment. Delays in US assistance hinder Ukrainian defense capabilities, allowing Russia to exploit vulnerabilities. Russia aims to deter Western support for Ukraine through rhetorical tactics, while positioning itself as a leader of non-Western states. Skibitskyi suggests a battlefield victory won’t end the war; negotiations may begin in 2025. Kuleba stresses the need for a coalition to pressure Russia for meaningful negotiations.
The U.S. State Department has declared that Russian forces are in breach of the Chemical Weapons Convention, using chloropicrin and riot control agents against Ukrainian forces. Chloropicrin, a lung-damaging agent previously used as an herbicide, and CS gas have been deployed by Russian forces to oust Ukrainian troops from fortified positions. Despite these allegations, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov denies any wrongdoing, asserting Russia’s compliance with the convention. In response, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on over 280 individuals and entities, including specific sanctions targeting three Russian government entities and four companies involved in chemical weapons development and use. The U.S. Treasury has also sanctioned about 200 companies and individuals, including Chinese firms, supporting Russia’s military and chemical weapons programs.
Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report confirming that Russian forces have executed at least 15 surrendering Ukrainian soldiers since December 2023. Combat footage suggests an additional six cases. HRW highlighted instances where Russian commanders ordered executions, a violation of international law.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Intense fighting continued between Russian and Ukrainian forces along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Ukrainian forces have reportedly made tactical advances south of Kreminna, particularly in the Serebryanske forest area. There are also active Ukrainian counterattacks supported by drone surveillance in various locations around Kreminna, Kupyansk, and Svatove.
Ukrainian forces engaged in positional fighting northeast of Bakhmut in the Siversk area, successfully repelling Russian attacks. Despite the ongoing clashes near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka, there were no significant shifts in the frontline positions.
Russian forces continued their offensive operations east of Chasiv Yar, although no significant frontline changes were confirmed. Temporary crossings by Russian forces at the underground section of the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal south of Chasiv Yar were reported, but no permanent positions were established. Fighting persisted in various locations around Chasiv Yar. Russian airborne and motorized rifle units remain active in the region, particularly near the canal and in the broader Bakhmut area.
Russian forces continued their offensive operations west of Avdiivka, achieving some advances in the area. Confirmed movements include gains north of Ocheretyne and south of Pervomaiske. Russian sources also claim further advancements near Arkhanhelske and Solovyove. Despite these claims, visual confirmation remains unverified. Ukrainian forces maintain partial control and have increased reserves in Ocheretyne to stabilize and counterattack, amid reports of significant Russian glide bomb strikes. Fighting persists in several locations around Avdiivka.
Russian forces pressed on with their offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City, though no changes in the frontline were confirmed. Combat persisted in areas west of Donetsk City, particularly near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka, and southwest near Novomykhailivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Ongoing positional fighting occurred along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border with no changes confirmed in frontline positions. Russian sources report minor advances by their forces near Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka, although these claims lack visual verification. Russian airstrikes in the past week targeted Urozhaine, purportedly aiding their tactical movements. Clashes also persisted south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske. Russian military units remain active in the region, especially near Vuhledar.
Positional fighting persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne and Verbove with no confirmed changes in frontline positions. Some Russian milbloggers claimed a partial withdrawal by Ukrainian forces from Robotyne, although Russian forces have not taken control of the area. There are also reports of Russian difficulties in supplying critical equipment, such as radios, to frontline troops in the region.
Positional fighting continued on the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky, with no changes to the frontline. Russian sources, including the Ministry of Defense, claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian sabotage group and subsequently captured an unspecified island in the Dnipro River delta.
Ukrainian Military Intelligence has reported that Russian forces are deploying kamikaze drones near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), exploiting the site’s restricted zones for launches and training. Recorded drone flights indicate a trajectory toward Ukrainian communities. The activity raises serious security concerns, prompting warnings from the UN atomic agency and a call by President Zelensky for increased European air defense to protect other power plants as well.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS:7 INJURIES: 41
- Russian forces attacked the town of Derhachi in Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast, injuring at least eight people, including seven children aged between nine and 15, and a 76-year-old man. Glide bombs targeted near a sports complex and residential areas, causing injuries ranging from light to moderate, with all victims hospitalized. Another child suffered from shock due to the attack.
- Russian Grad rockets struck the village of Memryk in Donetsk Oblast, damaging seven houses and resulting in two fatalities, including a 12-year-old child. Two others were hospitalized due to injuries from the attack.
- A Russian attack on Novoosynove in Kupiansk district resulted in the death of a 66-year-old man near his house.
- A Russian ballistic missile attack on Odesa injured 14 people and triggered a large fire.
- In Zolochiv, an attack resulted in two deaths and 13 injuries. The incident also damaged administrative buildings, a bank, over 20 cars, and destroyed one house.
- A Russian artillery and drone strike on Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injured four people, including two women and two men.
- In the town of Hirnyk, an attack using Uragan multiple rocket launchers by Russia resulted in the deaths of a 57-year-old woman and a 64-year-old man.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched limited drone and ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine overnight, targeting civilian infrastructure in Odesa with ballistic missiles and causing a significant fire at a postal warehouse. Ukrainian officials contend the facility was used for military purposes, leading to secondary explosions. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted missiles and drones during these attacks. Increased use of Kh-59 missiles by Russian forces was noted, with Ukraine deploying Patriot, IRIS-T, and NASAM systems for interception.
Ukraine, under President Volodymyr Zelensky, is set to host a global peace summit on June 15-16 in central Switzerland at the Burgenstock resort above Lake Lucerne. Announced by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, the summit aims to establish a just and lasting peace in line with U.N. standards and will gather 160 national delegations. Notably, Russia has not been invited due to unresolved issues from past unsuccessful negotiations between Ukraine and Russia from 2014 to 2022, which culminated in the 2022 invasion. Kuleba emphasized the necessity of forming a strong coalition and battlefield success as prerequisites for meaningful negotiations, while stressing Russia’s sincerity as a critical factor. Ukraine is also keen on ensuring China’s participation and is actively engaging with Chinese delegates to secure their attendance, despite China’s ongoing ties with Russia. The discussions will focus on uniting efforts towards a comprehensive solution that respects international laws and the U.N. Charter, with an agenda based on Ukraine’s 10-point peace formula, which includes troop withdrawals and accountability for war crimes. Despite Switzerland’s view that Russia should be involved eventually, Russia has stated it would not participate even if invited.
According to U.S. National Intelligence Director Avril Haines, Russia’s war against Ukraine shows no signs of ending soon, with Moscow expected to continue its aggressive tactics including energy infrastructure attacks. In April, Russia launched extensive strikes on Ukraine, deploying over 3,200 guided bombs, nearly 300 drones, and 300 missiles, severely damaging Ukraine’s energy system. Despite international challenges, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes events are unfolding in his favor, aiming to demoralize Ukraine and undermine its resolve. Meanwhile, the U.S. has approved a $61 billion aid package to support Ukraine, which President Volodymyr Zelensky says boosts their chances of reclaiming occupied territories, including Crimea.
Ilya Vityuk, former head of cybersecurity at Ukraine’s Security Service, was officially dismissed by President Zelensky after being suspended due to scandals. Investigative journalists found Vityuk’s family owning luxurious assets beyond their official income. Journalists were intimidated before publishing. Another report revealed Vityuk filmed police firing at protestors in 2014. He claimed to have lost the footage. Vityuk previously led investigations on cyberattacks against Ukraine.
Ukraine’s largest mobile-only bank, Monobank, experienced a powerful denial of service (DDoS) attack which flooded a website with excessive traffic to overload servers, ans disrupted the bank’s operations until the afternoon. While Monobank did not specify the attackers, Russian hackers have previously been linked to similar cyberattacks against Ukrainian entities since the start of the full-scale invasion.
On Orthodox Easter, May 5, security will be heightened in Kyiv, Ukraine, due to concerns over potential missile attacks by the Russian military. Kyiv’s military administration advises residents to attend Easter services online rather than in person. Serhiy Popko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, warned of the persistent threat of rocket attacks and reminded citizens that the country remains at war. An Easter curfew from midnight to 5:00 AM will be enforced, with over 23,000 law enforcement officers on duty to ensure safety and order.
Ahead of the Paris Olympics, Ukraine’s Sports Ministry and Ukrainian Olympic Committee issued recommendations for the 89 Ukrainian athletes competing, advising them to avoid interactions with Russian athletes, who will participate as Individual Neutral Athletes without national symbols or team participation. Ukrainian athletes are advised to maintain distance, especially during award ceremonies, and avoid joint media engagements. They are also instructed to report any provocative actions by Russian or Belarusian representatives. These guidelines aim to protect Ukrainian participants from potential provocations and are in response to ongoing tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its consequences in international sports, including previous sanctions against Russia for systematic doping and the suspension of the Russian Olympic Committee.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine plans to launch a mobile app on May 18 for conscription-age males to update their military registration. The app will be available on App Store and Google Play. Conscription-age males can update data through the app, local offices, or territorial centers. The app aims to simplify the process and can be used from abroad. No forced return of Ukrainian men abroad due to the new law.
Ukraine’s Allies
The European Union will host the EU-Ukraine Defense Industries Forum on May 6 to enhance cooperation with Ukraine’s defense industry. The event aims to strengthen ties by bringing together over 350 representatives from EU and Ukrainian defense sectors, governments, and partner countries. This initiative comes as Ukraine faces urgent needs for air defense systems and contends with an ammunition shortage. The forum will focus on priority areas such as air defense, ammunition, missiles, and drones. This meeting marks the initial implementation of the European Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS), which supports the EU defense industry’s competitiveness and readiness. Despite past shortcomings in fulfilling commitments, such as delivering only half of the promised 1 million artillery shells by 2024, the EU plans to meet these targets by year-end.
Polish President Andrzej Duda announced that during its EU Council presidency from January to June 2025, Poland will prioritize the EU accession efforts of Ukraine, Moldova, and Western Balkan countries. Ukraine and Moldova were granted EU candidate status in June 2022, with formal accession talks agreed to commence last December. President Duda emphasized the importance of integrating these countries into the EU swiftly, particularly highlighting Ukraine’s need for support due to its ongoing conflict with Russia and subsequent reconstruction challenges. Poland plans to facilitate this integration by hosting two significant European summits focused on Kyiv’s reconstruction and broader EU integration during its presidency. Additionally, the EU has begun the preliminary step of screening Ukraine’s legislation, a foundational part of the accession process, with Ukraine anticipating a negotiation framework by June.
Russia News
Since the onset of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia has suffered a total of 470,870 troop casualties, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. This figure includes 1,030 casualties reported in just the past day.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin, possibly indicating a move to balance power within the Russian Defense Ministry. Dyumin briefed Putin on Tula Oblast’s contributions to the Ukraine invasion, focusing on military support, defense industry improvements, and medical system enhancements. Dyumin’s efforts may aim to regain Putin’s favor after previous disagreements and align with Putin’s agenda. Putin likely publicized his meeting with Dyumin after the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Ivanov, possibly signaling dissatisfaction with Defense Minister Shoigu’s performance. Speculation arose about Dyumin’s potential new role in the defense industry. Shoigu’s recent statements were interpreted as criticism of other political figures, suggesting internal tensions. While Shoigu’s dismissal seems unlikely for now, Ivanov’s arrest and Dyumin’s prominence raise questions about Kremlin dynamics. The meeting between Putin and Dyumin suggests Putin’s involvement in Ivanov’s arrest. Putin often rotates officials to incentivize factions and achieve his goals. Previous events, like Dyumin’s humiliation in 2023, indicate shifts in Putin’s favor. Russian officials have also taken action following previous incidents, such as Prigozhin’s mutiny in 2023.
Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy giant, reported a net loss of nearly $6.9 billion in 2023, marking its largest profit downturn in decades and its first annual net loss since 1999. This significant loss follows a 40% decrease in revenue from gas sales due to falling gas prices and reduced access to the European market, which has been actively reducing dependence on Russian gas since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s share of European gas imports has plummeted from 40% in 2021 to just 8% in 2023. In response, Russia has shifted its focus to new markets like China, offering gas at reduced prices to attract buyers. Despite these challenges, the Russian Economy Ministry predicts growth in gas exports through 2026, supported by increased gas production.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
In fall 2023, the Russian military recruited prisoners, including those convicted of serious crimes such as cannibalism and murder, to fight in Ukraine. Reports indicated that these recruits, including a convict involved in large-scale drug trafficking, were placed in the “Storm V” detachment under the 752nd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment. These units received only 12 days of inadequate training from other mobilized personnel and convicts, suffering heavy losses in combat.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is actively recruiting officers from civilian universities, such as Voronezh State University, which offers military training across four departments. Students participating in these programs receive dual civilian and military education, with the opportunity to join the Russian military or security agencies for a three-year term upon graduation.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian officials, including Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, and Federation Council Spokesperson Valentina Matviyenko, have been promoting a long-standing information operation since 2014 to justify Russia’s invasions of Ukraine. They claim that a fire at the Odesa City Trade Unions building was deliberately planned by Ukrainian actors as a “massacre” against Russian “compatriots” in Odesa. Matviyenko has called for a tribunal to punish Ukrainian “nazis” for the fire and other alleged crimes, supporting Putin’s goal of “denazification” in Ukraine.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com