Summary of the day: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the need for global consensus on peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is actively promoting narratives that align with Russian interests, positioning himself as a potential mediator in the conflict. In a notable policy shift, the new UK Defense Secretary John Healey authorized Ukraine to target military sites within Russia using UK-provided weapons. On the battlefield, Russian troops made progress near Siversk, Toretsk, and Avdiivka. Domestically, Russia faces challenges from veterans returning from the war, increasing censorship on dissent, and growing ultranationalist discontent with the government’s migration policies.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces reported that Russian Telegram channels are spreading false claims that Ukrainian border guards are mining the border with Moldova. This disinformation aims to stir domestic discontent against Ukrainian officials and the military. A Russian milblogger shared footage on July 18 to support this narrative.
The Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries released a joint report accusing Spain of human rights violations and “Russophobia.” This move appears to be an effort to divert attention from their own human rights abuses and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They have made similar accusations against Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, and Australia.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported that Belarusian and Kazakh forces concluded the “Summit of Brotherhood 2024” tactical exercise at the Koktal Training Ground in Kazakhstan’s Zhetysu Region. The exercise was observed by Belarusian Chief of Staff Colonel Alexander Ilyukevich and Kazakh Airborne Assault Forces Commander Major General Almaz Dzhumakeev.
Peace Talks
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the need for global unity to encourage Russia to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. In a BBC interview, he stated that developing a strong consensus on Ukraine’s end goals, including territorial integrity and sovereignty, is essential for effective diplomacy. Zelensky highlighted that Ukraine aims to strengthen its military position to bolster its stance in negotiations without necessarily resorting to force for all territorial recovery. He reaffirmed Ukraine’s refusal to cede territory for peace and criticized the Kremlin’s portrayal of such negotiations as unreasonable demands or ultimatums.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is positioning himself as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine, even as he echoes Russian narratives. On July 18, Orban reported on his diplomatic visits, including to Ukraine and Russia, acknowledging Russia’s disinterest in ceasefire negotiations—contrary to Kremlin claims of seeking peace. He criticized the durability of US and EU support for Ukraine, aligning with Russian efforts to weaken Western backing for Kyiv. Orban also advocated for the EU to restore relations with Russia, which could undermine EU policies addressing Russian aggression and war crimes. Despite facing criticism from EU leaders, Orban plans to continue his “peace mission.”
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces reportedly launched an ATACMS missile strike targeting Luhansk City. Both TASS and Russian milbloggers reported that three ATACMS missiles were fired. Geolocated footage from the same day displayed remnants of what appeared to be an ATACMS missile near the former Luhansk Higher Military Aviation School. Additionally, both Ukrainian and Russian sources shared footage showing a smoke plume arising near the Aviation School in Luhansk City.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian drone strike, destroying five drones over the Black Sea and occupied Crimea. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate reported that Russian tourists and military logistics are both using the Kerch Strait Bridge.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian military operations continued north and northeast of Kharkiv City, specifically near Hlyboke and Vovchansk, without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Reports indicate that Russian forces are regrouping near Hlyboke, while assault groups are being prepared for deployment near Vovchansk. Russian electronic warfare systems are reportedly effective in countering Ukrainian drones in the area. Additionally, Ukrainian forces are said to be launching counterattacks in regions north and northeast of Kharkiv City, including near Starytsya and Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces engaged in ongoing ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without any confirmed changes to the frontline positions. Despite a Russian milblogger’s claim of an advance east of Nevske near Kreminna, no visual evidence supports this assertion. Intense fighting was reported in multiple areas: northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, east near Petropavlivka, southeast towards Berestove and Novoosynove, and northwest of Kreminna near several locations including Hrekivka and Terny.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces have made recent advances in the Siversk direction, with confirmed control over the settlement of Ivano-Darivka and nearby Spirne. Geolocated footage from July 17 shows Russian forces raising a flag in Ivano-Darivka, marking their presence. These advances are part of a continuing offensive rather than rapid gains, with Russian positions now approximately eight to nine kilometers from Siversk. Additional Russian military activity includes operations near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Pereizne. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a bridge between Pereizne and Fedorivka to impede further Russian progress.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal near Kalynivka, though this has not been verified. Offensive actions also took place north of Chasiv Yar towards Novomarkove, east near Ivanivske, and southeast near Bila Hora.
Toretsk
Russian forces made advances east of Toretsk. Geolocated footage shows Russian troops moving west along Petra Velykoho Street in eastern Druzhba and advancing within southern Pivnichne. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that elements of the Central Grouping of Forces captured Yurivka. Additionally, Russian milbloggers reported advances in central and northeastern Zalizne and southwestern Niu York, though these claims remain unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued near Toretsk, Pivnichne, Zalizne, and Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced northwest and west of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage shows Russian troops capturing the settlement of Prohres (northwest of Avdiivka) and moving southeast of Karlivka (west of Avdiivka). Russian sources claim additional advances near Lozuvatske and Yevhenivka, although these are unconfirmed. Russian troops reportedly made significant progress in Novoselivka Persha. Offensive operations continued in areas north, northwest, and west of Avdiivka, including Kalynove, Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Karlivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces reportedly advanced southwest of Donetsk City, but no confirmed frontline changes were noted. Russian milbloggers claimed advances west and northwest of Solodke towards Vodyane and the O-0532 highway, and they reported seizing a forest area north of Mykilske. They also claimed progress within Krasnohorivka, asserting control over 90 percent of it, though ISW estimates Russian control at around 37 percent. Russian forces continued assaults near Kostyantynivka and Paraskoviivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued their offensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed advances northeast and northwest of Staromayorske, but this has not been visually confirmed.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Fighting occurred near Mala Tokmachka, Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, and Robotyne. Russian infantry reportedly conducted assaults on motorcycles near Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional engagements continued in eastern Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky. A Russian milblogger claimed advances near Krynky. A Russian source reported that Russian forces in the Kherson area are struggling with insufficient personnel and fatigue, affecting their ability to rotate troops on the frontline and in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched limited missile strikes against Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported intercepting an Iskander ballistic missile aimed at Odesa Oblast from occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian General Staff reported two Iskander-M missile strikes on Chuhuiv in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces reported that Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft near Pokrovsk in the Avdiivka direction.
Ukraine’s Allies
UK Defense Secretary John Healey confirmed that Ukraine is permitted to use UK-provided weapons to target military sites in Russia, aligning with international humanitarian law, despite previous uncertainties about using UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles for such purposes. This clarification came amidst ongoing intense discussions between the UK and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a recent meeting, emphasized the need for the ability to strike beyond the border to effectively defend against Russian aggressions, urging the UK to lead in persuading other nations to lift restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Meanwhile, reports from earlier in the month indicated no change in the UK’s policy concerning the use of Storm Shadow missiles specifically, highlighting ongoing ambiguity in official positions.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The Russian government is working to integrate occupied Ukraine into its economy and populate these areas with Russian citizens. On July 17, Andrei Tarasenko of Rosmorrechflot claimed that ports in occupied eastern and southern Ukraine are now part of Russia’s transport system, with new cargo-handling infrastructure under construction. On July 18, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that up to one billion rubles ($11 million) are allocated for increased payments to medical workers from Russia who move to occupied Ukraine, offering up to two million rubles ($22,800) for doctors and one million rubles ($11,400) for other medical staff.
Russian authorities continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia and deeper into occupied Ukraine. On July 18, Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Artem Lysohor reported that 91 children were sent to a military training camp in Volgograd Oblast. Additionally, the Luhansk People’s Republic claimed that 99 children were deported to a camp in occupied Crimea in July 2024, with a total of 269 sent earlier in the summer. Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated that Ukraine has managed to return 758 out of approximately 20,000 children deported since 2014. Recent efforts have seen 12 children and their families, along with four more families, returned from occupied territories.
Russian authorities are also dismantling Ukrainian historical monuments. Reports indicate that occupation authorities have torn down monuments dedicated to “Victims of Stalin’s Repressions” and “Victims of Holodomor” in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
Russia News
The Kremlin is increasingly worried about the social and political challenges posed by Russian veterans returning from the war in Ukraine. According to a Meduza report, Sergey Kiriyenko, First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration, noted that many veterans struggle to reintegrate into civilian life and are prone to committing violent crimes. He acknowledged the potential for increased public discontent and fear towards these veterans. Unlike past conflicts, Russian society has had limited direct exposure to the war, primarily experiencing it through media, leaving them unprepared for the veterans’ return. Kiriyenko mentioned the “Time of Heroes” program as a potential support mechanism, though it is limited in scope. Concerns are growing that without effective interventions, returning veterans might turn to criminal activities, exacerbating internal instability in Russia. This situation echoes the broader unaddressed consequences of the Kremlin’s actions and highlights the potential for escalated conflict within Russia.
The Russian government is facing pressure to tighten migration policies amid rising ultranationalist sentiment and xenophobic rhetoric. The Russian Investigative Committee proposed legislation to the State Duma for stricter regulation of migrants, including revoking citizenship for naturalized citizens who commit serious crimes and implementing more rigorous identity checks such as biometric and genomic registration. Additionally, they recommended that new citizens must register for military service upon receiving their Russian passports.
Recent incidents have heightened tensions, including an altercation in Samara involving migrants that resulted in charges of attempted murder against individuals from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Following a thwarted terrorist attack by a Tajik national in Stavropol Krai, ultranationalists have demanded even stricter controls on migrants, particularly from Central Asia. These developments underscore the Kremlin’s challenge in balancing nationalist anti-migration demands with the economic and military needs for migrant labor.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian efforts to integrate personnel from proxy forces in occupied Ukraine into the military bureaucracy remain disorganized. A former Storm-Z instructor and Russian milblogger claimed on July 18 that Luhansk and Donetsk authorities have filed criminal cases against many Russian citizens for “abandoning their units,” likely due to improper registration with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russian milbloggers also criticized the lack of standardization in defense production, noting that the Russian Federal Agency for Technical Regulation and Metrology has failed to establish consistent regulations, leading to issues like inconsistent gunpowder quality in artillery shells.
In occupied Ukraine, Russian authorities are forming Cossack organizations to build military reserves and paramilitary policing services. Zaporizhia occupation authorities announced new Cossack societies, and Kherson officials approved a Cossack cooperative for all male inhabitants. These organizations are expected to fall under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russian drone producer Stratim Design Bureau announced that its AI-powered “Ivolga” drone, which uses a domestic microprocessor chip, successfully passed flight tests. This chip enables the drone to operate a neural network without a ground station.
Additionally, Russian forces are modifying armored vehicles with makeshift anti-drone protection, as shown in footage of a vehicle covered with metal spikes to defend against drone strikes.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Russian government is planning to tighten control over social media by requiring users with significant followings to register with Roskomnadzor, the federal censor. Proposed legislation would mandate that social media account owners with at least 10,000 subscribers submit personal identification data, with channels facing closure for non-compliance. Additionally, owners with daily audiences over 1,000 might need to provide identifying details, and Russian companies would be banned from advertising on non-compliant accounts. This move is part of broader efforts to eliminate anonymous critical voices from Russian online spaces. Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov, also announced a new measure to display registration details on channels, aligning with government efforts under the guise of combating scams.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org