Summary of the Day:
Russian forces advanced near several strategic points including Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka, while Ukrainian forces successfully regained positions near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. These territorial shifts come as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov demanded Ukraine renounce its sovereignty as a precondition for peace talks, signaling Russia’s continued commitment to territorial conquest rather than negotiation.
In support of Ukraine’s defense efforts, US President Biden announced a $2.5 billion military aid package including artillery rounds, rockets, armored vehicles, and various air defense systems. Meanwhile, the Kremlin issued a decree requiring illegal migrants to either gain legal status or leave Russia by April 2025, suggesting Russia is prioritizing military force generation over addressing its 1.5 million worker labor shortage.
In a significant diplomatic development, both sides conducted one of 2024’s largest prisoner exchanges, with 189 Ukrainian POWs returning home, including defenders of Azovstal Steel Plant and Chornobyl from early 2022, in exchange for 150 Russian POWs. Separately, Russian border guards withdrew from Armenia’s Agarak checkpoint after 30 years, marking another reduction in Russia’s regional influence.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainians freed from Russian captivity who returned to Ukraine. (President Volodymyr Zelensky/Telegram)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
NATO allies convened to address Baltic Sea security after the Estlink 2, a 170-kilometer undersea power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, was damaged on Christmas Day. Finnish police suspect a Russian tanker from Moscow’s “shadow fleet” – ships used to evade sanctions – caused the damage. In response, NATO is increasing its military presence in the Baltic Sea and enhancing protection of undersea infrastructure. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock noted a pattern of suspicious cable damage, with ships inexplicably dragging anchors across the seabed. These incidents represent a potential escalation of hybrid warfare tactics that could threaten regional stability and critical infrastructure connecting NATO allies.
Three German-Russian citizens from Bayreuth have been charged with espionage by Germany’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office, highlighting growing concerns about Russian sabotage operations within NATO countries. The main suspect, Dieter S., a former fighter for Russian-backed forces in Ukraine’s Donbas region, allegedly photographed military facilities and planned railway attacks. The suspects reportedly targeted the U.S. Grafenwoehr base where Ukrainian troops train and considered bomb attacks to undermine German support for Ukraine. This case has prompted NATO officials to warn that Russian hybrid attacks could cause substantial casualties and threaten international security.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanged New Year greetings, with Xi emphasizing their “non-alliance, non-confrontation” relationship. Despite China’s claims of neutrality, ties between the two nations have strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin has visited China twice since February 2022, and Xi is expected to visit Russia in the coming year. This growing alliance between two major world powers could significantly impact global geopolitical stability, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Moldova’s breakaway region of Transdniestria has cut gas supplies to 12 state institutions near Dubasari and Bender, including schools, medical facilities, and government offices, as Russia’s gas transit agreement through Ukraine expires December 31. Gazprom plans to halt gas exports to Moldova on January 1, citing unpaid debts of $709 million, which Moldova disputes, claiming the actual amount is $8.6 million. This situation could potentially destabilize Moldova and affect gas supplies to several European countries including Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, and Italy, creating broader regional energy security concerns. The dispute highlights growing tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and neighboring states, with potential implications for regional stability and European energy security.
Russian state media channels on Telegram, including Ria Novosti, Rossiya 1, Pervyi Kanal, NTV, Izvestia, and Rossiyskaya Gazeta, were blocked in several EU countries including France, Belgium, Poland, Greece, the Netherlands, and Italy. Russia’s foreign ministry called it censorship and threatened retaliation, escalating tensions between Russia and the EU that have been high since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Russian border guards withdrew from Armenia’s Agarak checkpoint on the Iran border, ending over 30 years of Russian control since 1991. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that Armenian forces have taken sole control of the checkpoint, following an October 2024 agreement. This withdrawal, coming after Russia’s earlier departure from Yerevan’s international airport, signals Armenia’s growing move away from Russian security influence and could reshape power relations in the region, potentially impacting regional stability and international peace efforts in the Caucasus.
Belarus announced plans to establish drone pilot training programs at 16 educational institutions by September 2025, with student training beginning that month. This military expansion, particularly in drone warfare capabilities, could increase tensions in Eastern Europe and potentially impact regional stability.
The Path to Peace
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected both Ukraine’s territorial claims and Western peace proposals, including suggestions from President-elect Trump’s team for a 20-year delay on Ukraine’s NATO membership and the deployment of Western peacekeeping troops – an idea discussed between French President Macron and Polish PM Tusk. Lavrov dismissed Ukraine’s goal of reclaiming its 1991 internationally recognized borders as an “ultimatum” and stated Russia would not enter peace talks unless Ukraine surrenders its sovereignty and territorial claims. The two nations remain deadlocked, with Putin demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from four annexed regions while Ukraine refuses to cede any territory, suggesting Russia remains committed to territorial conquest rather than genuine negotiations.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
A Russian opposition outlet reported that in September 2024 near Stelmakhivka, a Russian assault commander took extreme measures to prevent troops from retreating – allegedly mining the fields behind them and ordering soldiers to shoot anyone who tried to withdraw from their positions.
Ukrainian military officials announced that they conducted a missile strike on a Russian headquarters in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, killing six Russian personnel and wounding three others. The strike location was identified through aerial reconnaissance. Additionally, Ukrainian forces reported destroying a Russian Buk-M1-2 air defense system in the same region.
Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that severe weather has likely damaged Russian protective barriers, including sunken barges, meant to defend the Kerch Strait Bridge from Ukrainian naval drones. He noted that the remaining storm season could cause further damage to these defenses.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made territorial gains in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast on December 30. They captured Cherkasskaya Konopelka and advanced in northeastern Makhnovka, both southeast of Sudzha. While Russian sources claim they also took Agronom, this remains unverified. Russian officials reported intercepting three Ukrainian missiles over Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian partisans reportedly attacked two locomotives in Russia’s Moscow Oblast. The Mariupol resistance group allegedly destroyed an electric train valued at 50 million rubles ($460 million), while the Azov resistance group damaged a diesel train. Both trains were reportedly destined for Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. This follows recent partisan attacks on Russian railway infrastructure, including sabotage of a key railway line between Moscow and Kursk oblasts, and similar actions in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Ukraine has significantly expanded its drone warfare capabilities in 2024, developing long-range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that can strike targets up to 2,000 kilometers inside Russia. In September 2024, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov reported that Ukrainian forces had damaged or destroyed over 200 Russian military facilities using “drone swarm” technology. A notable success came in July when a Ukrainian drone struck the Olenya military airfield in Murmansk Oblast, 1,800 kilometers from the border, damaging a Tu-22M3 bomber. The strikes have targeted Russian oil refineries, causing a 17% drop in output according to NATO, and arms depots, with one September attack destroying 30,000 tons of ammunition. These attacks have forced Russia to relocate 90% of its aircraft over 300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Looking ahead, Ukraine claims it can produce 4 million drones annually, though challenges remain in countering Russia’s ground advances.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted ground attacks north and northeast of Kharkiv City targeting the areas near Lyptsi, Hatyshche, and Vovchansk. However, they failed to make any confirmed territorial gains in these locations.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. While Russian sources claimed to have captured Ivanivka and nearly taken Terny (both northwest of Kreminna), these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces reported repelling several Russian attacks, including a mechanized assault near Kupyansk where over 30 Russian troops attacked in waves. Ukrainian forces also reported destroying 15 Russian armored vehicles near Kreminna and in the Serebryanske forest area over the past week. Russian forces conducted attacks across multiple locations, including areas north and east of Kupyansk, southwest of Svatove, and around Kreminna, but failed to make confirmed advances.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk targeting Bilohorivka to the northeast and Zolotarivka to the east. Russian forces failed to make any confirmed advances.
Chasiv Yar
Ukrainian forces recaptured positions in central Chasiv Yar, though Russian forces continue their offensive in the area. Video evidence shows Russian forces engaging Ukrainian forces near Heorhiia Dubrovskoho Street. While Russian sources claim to have captured the railway station in northwestern Chasiv Yar and advanced in the Desyata Microraion, these claims remain unverified. Ukrainian forces maintain control of the strategically important Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar, despite Russian attempts to cross the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal to attack the facility.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces regained positions along Hryhoriia Skovorody street in northwestern Toretsk, while Russian forces made advances in several areas of western Toretsk, including along 1 Hirskyi Street and Zhytomyrskyi streets. Street fighting continues within Toretsk. While Russian sources claim additional advances near waste heaps in western Toretsk and in the Zabalka Microraion, these claims remain unverified.
Pokrovsk
Ukrainian forces regained positions east of Pishchane, south of Pokrovsk, while Russian forces advanced northwest of Dachenske and west of Pishchane. Russian sources claim advances near several settlements including Baranivka and Kotlyne, though these remain unverified. Fighting continues across multiple locations around Pokrovsk, with Russian forces conducting assaults near Vozdvyzhenka, Vovkove, Novoyeliyzavetivka, and other surrounding settlements.
Kurakhove
Russian forces made minor advances in western Sontsivka, northwest of Kurakhove. While Russian sources claim advances near Shevchenko and Petropavlivka, and the capture of a parking area west of Kurakhove, fighting continues around these areas. Russian forces are conducting assaults near the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant and towards Dachne, while Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes against Russian armored vehicles in the region.
Andriivka
Russian forces advanced east of Yantarne, northwest of Vuhledar, with footage showing a platoon-sized mechanized assault. Russian forces continue attacks near Uspenivka, Kostiantynopolske, and Kostiantynopil. While Russian sources claim additional advances northwest of Uspenivka, these claims remain unverified.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced west of Velyka Novosilka and continued attacks in several directions around the settlement, including near Vremivka, Pryvilne, Novodarivka, and Neskuchne. A Ukrainian military representative reports that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Velyka Novosilka with the aim of reaching the junction where Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts meet.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian military bloggers reported minimal activity in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with only one claimed incident where Russian forces reportedly stopped a Ukrainian attack near Kamyanske, located northwest of Robotyne and south of Zaporizhzhia City. No other combat was reported in the region by either side.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continued their attacks along the Dnipro River and its delta islands but failed to gain any new territory.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 43 Shahed and other drones against Ukraine from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian forces shot down 21 drones over six regions: Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Odesa, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk. Another 22 drones were reportedly disabled by electronic warfare. Falling debris caused damage to homes in Lyubotyn, Kharkiv Oblast and Odesa City.
In 2024, Russia launched an intense aerial campaign against Kyiv, deploying over 1,300 drones and 250 missiles, including cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic weapons, according to Kyiv Military Administration head Serhii Popko. The attacks triggered more than 500 air raid alerts and damaged nearly 550 residential buildings, leaving 120 people homeless. The city’s energy infrastructure was severely impacted, with residents experiencing about 100 days of power outages averaging nine hours daily. Despite the attacks, Popko highlighted that nearly 21,000 babies were born in Kyiv hospitals during the year. The capital also saw an increase of 11,000 internally displaced persons seeking refuge.
In a significant prisoner exchange facilitated by the United Arab Emirates just before New Year’s Eve, Russia and Ukraine swapped over 300 prisoners of war. Russia released 189 Ukrainians, including 173 privates and sergeants, 14 officers, and two civilian journalists-turned-soldiers who were captured during the Mariupol siege. The released Ukrainian prisoners included defenders of key strategic locations from early 2022 such as the Azovstal Steel Plant, Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, and Snake Island. In return, Ukraine released 150 Russian service members. This exchange marks a continued effort in prisoner swaps between the nations, with Ukraine having secured the return of 3,956 POWs total since the conflict began in February 2022, including 1,358 released in 2024. President Zelensky has emphasized Ukraine’s commitment to freeing all remaining captives.
Ukrainian police identified Russian commander Artyom Tarieiev as the suspect responsible for the murder of Iryna Filkina in Bucha in March 2022. Filkina, an Epicenter employee, was shot while riding her bicycle after Tarieiev ordered his forces to kill all civilians at an intersection. Her image, particularly of her painted fingernails, became a global symbol of the Bucha massacre. The commander’s orders allegedly led to 13 civilian deaths on the same street. In total, Russian forces killed over 1,400 civilians in Bucha District, including 637 in Bucha city and 37 children.
President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed human rights activist Olha Reshetylova as Ukraine’s first military ombudsman. In this newly created role, she will handle service members’ complaints, provide legal assistance, and investigate violations of military personnel and their families’ rights. Reshetylova brings significant experience as co-founder of both the Media Initiative for Human Rights and Come Back Alive, a major military fundraising organization. The appointment follows recent allegations of abuse in the 211th Pontoon Bridge Brigade, highlighting the need for this oversight position.
President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Kyiv Oblast Governor Ruslan Kravchenko and Poltava Oblast Governor Filip Pronin. According to lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak, both officials are expected to be appointed to new roles heading the Tax and Financial Supervision Commissions. Kravchenko had served as Kyiv Oblast governor since April 2023, while Pronin had led Poltava Oblast since October 2023.
Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha visited Damascus marking the first Ukrainian diplomatic mission to Syria since ties were cut in 2022, where he raised Ukraine’s flag over the Honorary Consulate and discussed concerns about Russian military presence with Syria’s new administration following the December 8 overthrow of Russian-backed leader Bashar al-Assad. As part of Ukraine’s efforts to restore diplomatic relations, the country has already sent 500 tons of wheat flour to Syria through its “Grain from Ukraine” program and is ready to resume trade and educational exchanges, provided Syria’s new leadership respects international law. President Zelensky emphasized that helping stabilize Syria could contribute to Ukraine’s own peace efforts.
Starting January 1, Ukraine will quadruple its gas transit tariffs for domestic customers as its gas transport agreement with Russia expires. The 2019 deal, which provided 85% of Ukraine’s gas transit income through fees paid by Russia to use Ukrainian pipelines, will not be renewed. This decision affects several European countries still dependent on Russian gas, including Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria. Slovakia has threatened to cut electricity supplies to Ukraine if the gas transit is halted.
Ukraine’s exports increased by 13% in 2023, reaching $41.043 billion as of December 26, according to Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko. The growth was largely attributed to Ukraine’s successful reopening of Black Sea shipping routes despite Russian blockade attempts, following Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal. The European Union remained Ukraine’s main trading partner, receiving 59% of exports ($24.5 billion), followed by China, Turkey, Egypt, India, and Moldova. Agricultural and metallurgy products were Ukraine’s primary exports.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine faces a massive demining challenge as the world’s most heavily mined country, with 139,000 square kilometers of potentially dangerous land – an area the size of Greece. Ukrainian startups are developing innovative solutions to address this crisis. Companies like Rovertech have created the “Zmiy” remote demining vehicle, which costs around $20,000 and can withstand both anti-personnel and anti-tank mine explosions. Other firms like UADamage and PostUp Foundation are using drones with special sensors to detect and map mined areas. According to Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine has already cleared over 35,000 square kilometers and aims to clear 80% of contaminated land within 10 years. The urgency is clear – 199 Ukrainian farmers have died from mine-related incidents since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. has delivered its final aid allocations under the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act 2024, consisting of a $3.4 billion direct budget support payment announced by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and a $2.5 billion security assistance package announced by President Biden. The security package is split between $1.25 billion in immediate military equipment from Pentagon stocks and $1.22 billion for future arms procurement through U.S. defense companies, including air defense systems (NASAMS and HAWK munitions), artillery rounds, rockets, armored vehicles, drones, HIMARS ammunition, missiles, anti-tank weapons, and spare parts. Throughout Biden’s administration, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with over $60 billion in military aid and $26 billion in financial assistance, with the direct budget support being tied to Ukrainian reforms in law enforcement, government transparency, and anti-corruption measures. This final allocation of Congressional funds comes just weeks before Biden leaves office, as President-elect Trump, who has been critical of aid to Ukraine, prepares to take office in January.
The U.S. will provide Ukraine with $15 billion through the World Bank, funded by frozen Russian assets, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced. This funding is part of the PEACE in Ukraine project and represents a portion of the U.S.’s $20 billion commitment under the broader G7 $50 billion loan program. Ukraine has already received $1 billion from frozen Russian assets, with Russia condemning similar initiatives, including the UK’s plan to transfer $2.5 billion to Ukraine using frozen Russian funds. The loan program was established by G7 leaders in July, with most frozen Russian assets being held in EU countries.
Russia News
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree requiring illegal migrants to either gain legal status or leave Russia by April 30, 2025. To become legal, migrants must pass health screenings, take exams on Russian language, history, and law, pay any debts, or join the Russian military. With Russia facing a labor shortage of 1.5 million workers, particularly in service industries, this decree could worsen economic pressures if significant numbers of migrants depart or are forced into military service. The decree’s enforcement will signal whether the Kremlin prioritizes addressing nationalist concerns about migrant crime over managing Russia’s economic challenges.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1610
789550 |
Tanks +5
9668 |
Artillery +34
21528 |
Arm. Veh. +27
20030 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian forces have reportedly strengthened their border security with Ukraine since 2022, moving away from using conscripts and deserters for border patrol. According to a Russian military blogger, “serious” forces now defend the border near Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, including former Wagner Group fighters and convicts who are part of a program called the Russian “K” Project. While these claims cannot be independently verified, recruitment has reportedly increased following Ukraine’s recent incursion into Kursk Oblast.
A Russian airborne forces blogger reported that the 214th “Opfor” Separate Special Battalion, which has fought in Ukraine since 2022, has been reformed into an assault battalion. The unit, which suffered heavy losses near Bakhmut in 2023 requiring multiple reconstitutions, reportedly spent much of 2024 focused on producing combat operation videos for informational purposes.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com