Summary of the Day:
Russian forces saw limited advances in the Kursk Oblast salient and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Ukrainian forces meanwhile achieved gains north of Kharkiv City as the war reaches its 1,000th day of full-scale combat operations.
Ukrainian forces marked a significant milestone in their operational capabilities, conducting their first ATACMS strike against Russian territory. The strike targeted an ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast, demonstrating Ukraine’s expanding long-range strike capabilities following recent U.S. authorization for such operations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an updated nuclear doctrine widely interpreted as a response to the Biden Administration’s approval of long-range strikes into Russian territory. However, analysts assess this as another instance of nuclear saber-rattling rather than a meaningful shift in Russia’s nuclear posture, reflecting the Kremlin’s ongoing attempts to deter Western military support through nuclear messaging.
While Ukraine has only recently begun receiving modern weapons systems necessary for large-scale combat operations, military analysts suggest that with continued Western support to build capabilities at scale, Ukraine may be positioned to conduct operationally significant counteroffensives in the future.
Picture of the Day:
The European Commission projects a Ukrainian flag on the front of the EU Commission headquarters to commemorate 1,000 days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Brussels, Belgium. (Thierry Monasse/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
President Putin has approved significant revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine that expand the conditions for potential nuclear weapon use. The new policy lowers the threshold by including triggers such as military coalition activities near Russian borders, support from NATO countries to Ukraine, attacks on Belarus, large-scale drone strikes, cruise missile attacks, and actions by non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers. Notably, Russia has removed language restricting nuclear weapons to “solely” deterrence purposes and now considers actions by any NATO member as potential aggression from the entire alliance. While Putin emphasized Russia’s focus on retaliatory rather than preventative strikes, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described the changes as a warning to Western countries, particularly regarding Ukrainian use of Western-supplied missiles against Russia.
The timing of this doctrine change, following US authorization of long-range strikes into Russia, suggests an intensifying cycle of strategic threats. However, Western officials view these changes as more posturing than a real policy shift. CIA Director William Burns has warned against overreacting to Russian nuclear threats, while the US National Security Council sees this as a continuation of Russia’s rhetoric since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Pentagon confirms no observed changes in Russia’s actual nuclear posture, though Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh called the rhetoric “incredibly dangerous.” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, speaking at a meeting of European ministers in Poland, characterized this as an attempt to intimidate the West, emphasizing that European nations would not be deterred.
These nuclear threats appear to be losing effectiveness, as noted in a September Washington Post report, with Western nations proceeding with military aid despite Russia’s warnings. A prominent Russian military blogger acknowledged that Western countries no longer fear Russia’s nuclear threats, pointing to Russia’s lack of response to previous Ukrainian strikes within Russian territory as undermining their credibility. The muted Russian response to Ukraine’s recent ATACMS strike in Bryansk Oblast today further demonstrates this pattern. Internal disagreements within the Kremlin reveal uncertainty about Russia’s own nuclear “red lines,” with factions divided between those wanting clear deterrence triggers and others preferring strategic ambiguity. The doctrine remains intentionally vague about specific triggers, and ultimately, the decision to use nuclear weapons rests solely with President Putin, regardless of the formal doctrine’s content.
Russia’s alleged campaign of hybrid warfare has intensified with several interconnected events: undersea telecom cables connecting Finland to Germany and Lithuania to Sweden’s Gotland Island were severed in the Baltic Sea on November 17-18 near Russia’s Kaliningrad military base (following similar suspected sabotage like the Nord Stream pipeline explosions), while Czech security chief Michal Koudelka identified Russia as responsible for bomb threats against Czech and Slovak schools and 80% of European influence operations, with German and Finnish officials jointly warning these infrastructure attacks represent hybrid warfare threatening European security and global communication systems, marking an escalation of tensions and potential risks to regional stability that extends Russia’s aggression beyond its war in Ukraine through coordinated disruption efforts including cyberattacks on civilian infrastructure.
The devastating environmental toll of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reached $71 billion, with climate impacts that threaten global stability, according to Ukraine’s Environment Minister Svitlana Grynchuk at the COP29 summit. The war has generated 180 million tons of carbon emissions, with military activities alone responsible for 51.6 million tons. Most alarming for global environmental security is the destruction of three million hectares of forest – an area larger than many countries’ total forest coverage – critically impacting carbon absorption capabilities. As Russia continues to target energy infrastructure, plunging millions into darkness, the environmental crisis deepens. This environmental devastation, up from the UN’s previous estimate of $56 billion, represents a significant threat to both regional peace and global climate goals, particularly as Ukraine works toward meeting the EU’s 2050 net-zero emissions target despite wartime conditions.
Russia’s massive assault on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure – launching 120 missiles and 90 drones – marks a dangerous escalation that threatens global stability. As the tenth major strike this year on Ukraine’s power systems, this aggressive action has not only caused civilian casualties but also triggered immediate global economic ripples, with oil prices surging 3.2% to $73.3 per barrel for Brent crude. The attack’s timing and scale raise concerns about escalating warfare tactics targeting civilian infrastructure, potentially setting a troubling precedent for future conflicts. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency’s prediction of oil supply exceeding demand by over 1 million barrels daily by 2025 suggests this conflict’s disruption of energy markets could have lasting effects on global economic stability, even as China’s reduced energy consumption adds another layer of uncertainty to the international security landscape.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reached its 1,000th day since beginning on February 24, 2022. While Russia initially expected to take Kyiv and install a pro-Russian government within three days, Ukrainian forces have successfully defended multiple regions including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Poltava, and Mykolaiv. The fight continues in occupied areas of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Crimea. Russian forces are currently advancing in eastern Ukraine, with Ukrainian officials warning of a possible Russian offensive in Zaporizhia. Meanwhile, Putin continues to wage an information war claiming inevitable Russian victory, though this appears driven by concerns over continued Western support for Ukraine.
Ukraine is only now beginning to receive advanced military capabilities crucial for modern warfare. Recent developments include small quantities of F-16 fighters with pilot training in 2024, ATACMS missiles in fall 2023 (after their counteroffensive ended), and limited Western tanks in early 2023. These weapons systems are essential for conducting large-scale combat operations, but Ukraine hasn’t yet had the opportunity to demonstrate their full potential with a properly equipped force. With continued Western support and integration of these new capabilities, Ukraine’s military effectiveness could significantly improve in future operations. This represents a crucial turning point in Ukraine’s ability to conduct major counteroffensives, particularly now that the US has authorized strikes into Russian territory.
Ukrainian partisans report that Russian forces installed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system near Sevastopol, Crimea, specifically around Komyshova and Kozacha bays. The system protects several military facilities, including a naval diving school, oil depot, and military training areas.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Russian forces made advances near Nizhny Klin in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast. Fighting continues around several settlements including Olgovka, Kremyanoye, Plekhovo, Novoivanovka, and Sverdilkovo. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted counterattacks near Novoivanovka, Darino, and Plekhovo. A notable change in Russian tactics was observed, with forces now conducting nighttime attacks rather than morning operations. Russian forces are reportedly positioned near Novy Put, though no active fighting was reported in the Glushkovsky area.
North Korea has deployed over 11,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk Oblast, according to US Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh. While additional North Korean forces may be sent, the Pentagon has not yet seen evidence of further deployments.
Ukraine launched its first ATACMS missile strike into Russian territory, targeting a military ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast, about 60 miles from the Ukrainian border. The attack hit the 67th Main Military and Artillery Directorate arsenal, which stored ammunition including North Korean shells. Of the eight missiles launched, Russia claims to have intercepted five and damaged one. The initial strike at 2:30 a.m. triggered twelve secondary explosions, also affecting the “Veza” ventilation plant and buildings in Karachev, Podsosonki, and Baykova. While Russia reports minimal damage and no casualties, Ukrainian sources claim the strike was successful.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces advanced into a forested area near Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv City. Russian forces continued attacks near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk. A Ukrainian commander reported heavy Russian losses, with 139 casualties during an attempt to capture just 200 meters of terrain.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with fighting reported in eastern Kupyansk’s industrial zone. Russian forces hold limited positions in Kruhlyakivka and are attempting to advance toward Kolisnykivka. Combat continues near several settlements including Kindrashivka, Lozova, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Terny, Novolyubivka, and Torske. Russian forces reportedly used a new guided bomb, the “OFZAB-500,” to strike Kupyansk for the first time.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces conducted attacks near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk, but failed to gain ground.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Stupochky, south of Chasiv Yar, without confirmed advances. While Russian military bloggers claimed gains along Dmytra Skrypnychenka and Parkova streets in eastern Chasiv Yar, these claims remain unverified.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces captured Russian positions and took prisoners in a surprise attack near Toretsk. Russian forces launched attacks near Druzhba and Shcherbynivka around Toretsk but made no confirmed advances, despite claims they had secured positions in southeastern Toretsk’s Zabalka area.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces attacked multiple settlements near Pokrovsk without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces captured a Russian position near Novohrodivka. Russian attacks focused on Promin, Myrolyubivka, Petrivka, Dachenske, Pustynka, Lysivka, and Novooleksiivka, while Russian sources claimed advances near Selydove and repelling a Ukrainian attack near Krasnyi Yar.
Kurakhove
Russian forces are launching a significant offensive to encircle Kurakhove, a key town in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, with fighting reaching the town’s center. The assault includes attacks on Sontsivka, Voznesenka, Novoselydivka, Berestky, and Dalne, while simultaneously attempting to capture Kostiantynopolske and Sukhi Vali to cut off the crucial Kostiantynopil-Kurakhove supply route near Dachne. While Russian sources claim to have captured Novoselydivka, located 7 kilometers north of Kurakhove, these claims remain unconfirmed by Ukraine. Russia is reportedly moving “Storm V” penal units and military equipment through Mariupol to Volnovakha to support these operations, making significant progress along the Donetsk front line while Ukraine’s strongest units are engaged in Kursk Oblast.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked multiple settlements around Vuhledar targeting Kostiantynopolske, Trudove, Rozdolne, Yelyzavetivka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka. While Russian sources claimed advances near Dalne, Yasna Polyana, and Rozdolne, these gains remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces have gained ground near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, capturing the settlement of Rivnopil southwest of Velyka Novosilka. They continued attacks around Velyka Novosilka, Makarivka, and Novodarivka, pressuring Ukrainian positions from multiple directions. These operations appear aimed at advancing toward Vuhledar and Kurakhove in southwestern Donetsk Oblast.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked several settlements in western Zaporizhia Oblast, including Novoandriivka, Nesteryanka, Novopokrovka, and Bilohirya near Robotyne. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances toward Mala Tokmachka, there have been no confirmed changes to the front line.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continues along the Dnipro River in eastern Kherson Oblast and its delta islands, with Russian special forces (45th Spetsnaz Brigade) and reserve units (BARS-33) operating in the area. No changes to the front line have been reported.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a major drone attack against Ukraine, sending 87 drones from Kursk, Oryol, and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces shot down 51 drones across multiple regions, while 30 were lost due to electronic interference. Two drones hit Hlukhiv, killing 12 and injuring 11. Strikes on Zaporizhzhia City caused heating and power outages.
President Zelensky addressed the European Parliament on Nov. 19, marking 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion, calling for peace in 2024. The speech followed one of Russia’s largest aerial attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid on Nov. 17. Zelensky urged stronger sanctions, particularly against Russia’s “shadow fleet” that evades oil restrictions.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine plans to begin EU accession talks in early 2025, aiming for the fastest possible membership process. Having received candidate status in June 2022, Ukraine could potentially join the EU by 2029 if it completes required reforms. The EU is currently reviewing Ukraine’s legislation and has praised the country’s progress on legal and anti-corruption reforms, though more work remains. The EU has introduced specific plans to help accelerate Ukraine’s integration process.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 9
Russian forces struck Kharkiv’s Kyivskyi district injuring nine men. Among them, an 18-year-old was seriously wounded, and four others were hospitalized with moderate injuries.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Zelensky presented Ukraine’s new “Internal Resilience Plan” to parliament, a 10-point strategy focusing on national unity, military capabilities, finances, energy, security, community support, and veterans’ services. The plan emphasizes strengthening Ukraine’s self-sustainability through military production, with goals to produce 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 cruise missiles in 2025, having already produced 2.5 million artillery rounds in 2024. This domestic weapons development, supported by a reported U.S. commitment of $700-800 million, aims to reduce dependence on Western military aid and follows Ukraine’s success with its domestically produced ballistic missile and Palianytsia missile-drone system.
Ukraine’s parliament has approved its 2025 “Budget of War,” meeting its deadline for the third consecutive year despite the ongoing conflict. The budget projects revenues of Hr.2.05 trillion ($45.56 billion) plus $38 billion in international aid, against expenditures of Hr.3.6 trillion ($80 billion). Defense spending dominates at 26.3% of GDP (Hr.2.2 trillion/$53.66 billion), including $17.9 billion for domestic weapons production and procurement, with an additional $1.3 billion specifically for weapons production and new defense technologies, representing an increase of $84.4 million from 2024.
The budget also allocates Hr.420.9 billion ($9.35 billion) for social support, including pension reforms and measures to help frontline communities retain more local tax revenue. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal emphasized that all tax revenue will be directed toward defense and security, along with supporting citizens and national reconstruction. While some lawmakers praised the plan’s goals, others questioned its financial feasibility, though Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine will not trade territory for peace and confirmed that no elections will be held while martial law remains in effect.
The UK Defense Ministry announced that over 50,000 Ukrainian recruits have completed military training in Britain through Operation Interflex since June 2022. The program, supported by 13 partner countries including Kosovo, Romania, and Estonia as recent additions, provides essential combat preparation. The initiative continues despite concerns about Russian intelligence gathering efforts targeting the training operations.
Ukraine’s Allies
Western officials have confirmed that President Biden has authorized Ukraine to use American-provided weapons, including ATACMS missiles, for strikes up to 300 kilometers inside Russia, with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Brian Nichols emphasizing that the conflict could end immediately if Russia withdrew its forces and respected Ukraine’s borders. EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell confirmed this capability enhancement, which allows Ukraine to target previously safe Russian military facilities, with reports indicating Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range strikes in Kursk Oblast.
This policy shift, occurring two months before Trump takes office in January, has drawn criticism from Trump allies including expected national security adviser Mike Waltz and former intelligence official Richard Grenell, who view it as a dangerous escalation, with Grenell calling it “a whole new war.” Moscow has promised an “appropriate” response, while Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga is scheduled to meet with Congress seeking continued support as the war passes its 1,000-day mark, following what President Zelensky described as a “constructive” conversation with Trump, who has pledged to end the war quickly without specifying how.
As Ukraine marked 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022, Western leaders demonstrated solidarity through various gestures, including the EU illuminating its buildings with Ukrainian flags. NATO’s Patrick Turner affirmed continued support, while U.S. Ambassador to UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield announced upcoming defense assistance including artillery, air defense, and armored vehicles.
Major European Union countries have signaled readiness to increase military and financial support if U.S. aid diminishes under a potential Trump administration, according to Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski at a Warsaw meeting with top diplomats from France, Germany, Italy, Britain, and Spain. EU diplomat Josep Borrell urged member states to follow the U.S. lead in allowing Ukraine to use donated long-range missiles for strikes within Russia, calling this policy change “very good news” and emphasizing its alignment with international law.
While French President Emmanuel Macron has supported this decision, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to withhold Taurus missiles, drawing criticism from opposition member Florian Hahn who suggests the decision is driven by domestic politics rather than security concerns. Both opposition leader Friedrich Merz and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck indicated they would approve the transfer of these German-Swedish missiles, which have a 500-kilometer range.
Multiple countries have increased funding for Ukraine’s drone capabilities, with new pledges including $9.5 million from the U.K., $12.7 million from Germany, and $3.8 million each from Canada and Luxembourg. The drone coalition, launched in February 2024 and co-led by Latvia and the U.K., has raised over $85 million from nine participating countries, while Ukraine aims to produce one million drones domestically in 2024. Denmark has become the first country to directly purchase arms from Ukrainian manufacturers, providing 130 million euros ($137.5 million) to support Ukraine’s defense industry development.
Poland has initiated plans to develop domestic ammunition production capabilities with a $750 million investment, signing agreements with local companies to manufacture essential gunpowder components. Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized the critical importance of ammunition access, particularly 155mm artillery rounds, as Poland aims to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
The Czech government confirmed that South Korea is not participating in its initiative to supply Ukraine with 500,000 artillery shells by the end of 2024. While one-third of these shells have already been delivered, Czech commissioner Tomas Kopecny clarified that South Korea is neither providing shells nor funding the program, contrary to earlier German media reports. Though Seoul has indirectly supplied ammunition through U.S. purchases, it’s now considering revising its support policy for Ukraine, particularly given North Korean involvement in the conflict.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to provide Ukraine with an additional $1.1 billion in aid, bringing total support under their program to $9.8 billion. Following meetings with Ukrainian officials in mid-November, the IMF praised Ukraine’s strong economic performance despite wartime conditions. While forecasting 4% GDP growth for 2024, the IMF expects growth to slow to 2.5-3.5% in 2025 due to Russian missile damage to energy infrastructure and war-related labor shortages. Despite inflation reaching 9.7% and ongoing risks from the war, Ukraine maintains $36.6 billion in international reserves. The IMF supports Ukraine’s 2025 budget plan but warns that increased war expenses might require raising VAT rates to manage the budget deficit.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian authorities have detained two Crimean residents for the Nov. 13 car bombing death of Russian Navy officer Valery Trankovsky in Sevastopol. According to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), Trankovsky was chief of staff of the 41st Missile Boat Brigade and was allegedly responsible for cruise missile strikes against Ukrainian civilians, including a 2022 attack on Vinnytsia that killed 29 people and wounded 200. The FSB claims one suspect tracked Trankovsky’s car while the other planted explosives under it.
Russia News
In yet another case of a Russian war critic meeting death by “accidental” fall, principal dancer Vladimir Shklyarov of St. Petersburg’s prestigious Mariinsky Theater was found dead Saturday after falling from a fifth-floor balcony. The 38-year-old ballet star, who had publicly declared “I am against the war in Ukraine!” citing his Ukrainian family connections, joins a disturbing pattern of critics dying in similar circumstances. While officials claim Shklyarov, who was scheduled for spinal surgery and taking strong painkillers, died accidentally, his death follows a series of suspicious falls among Russians who opposed the Ukraine invasion. The Mariinsky Theater veteran, an Honored Artist of Russia who had performed leading roles since 2003, had openly expressed opposition to the war just days after it began in February 2022.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1690
725740 |
Tanks +8
9390 |
Artillery +49
20681 |
Arm. VEH +27
19119 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
After 1,000 days of war in Ukraine, Russia faces significant challenges in maintaining its military capabilities. Initially relying on contract soldiers and limited conscripts, Russia has avoided general mobilization, instead using a mix of volunteers, mobilized personnel, and irregular groups like the Wagner Group. However, this strategy is showing strain: Russia is now losing troops faster than it can replace them, and its Soviet-era equipment stockpiles are depleting. Looking ahead to 2025, Russia faces increasing pressure from manpower shortages, economic constraints including high inflation, and public war fatigue. Putin may soon need to consider another forced mobilization to address these growing limitations.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com