Summary of the day: Ukraine may be attempting to degrade Russian air defenses, potentially enabling more effective use of manned fixed-wing aircraft in the future. Russian naval vessels arrived in Cuba for a five-day port call, while Armenia signaled its intention to leave the Russia-led CSTO amid distancing from Moscow. Russian forces made confirmed advances near Vovchansk, Siversk, Avdiivka, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. President Putin emphasized strengthening Russia’s defense industry in recent awards, underlining its importance to the ongoing war effort.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian Northern Fleet ships, including a frigate, nuclear submarine, oiler, and tug, arrived in Havana, Cuba, for a five-day visit. The frigate will be open to the public, and the visit coincides with a meeting between Russian and Cuban foreign ministers in Moscow. The port call, especially the presence of the nuclear-capable submarine, is likely intended to invoke memories of the Cuban Missile Crisis and encourage US self-deterrence, though officials say it poses no real threat.
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that Armenia will decide when to leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), amid growing distance from Moscow. He criticized the CSTO for failing Armenia and accused some members of planning war against it with Azerbaijan. Armenia has effectively frozen CSTO participation and aims to reduce bilateral security ties with Russia. A formal CSTO withdrawal would largely formalize this status quo but deal a blow to Russia’s regional influence.
The Georgian opposition outlet Mtavari reported that the government plans to resume diplomatic ties with Russia, citing sources claiming the ruling Georgian Dream party is preparing to restore relations and staff the Moscow embassy. However, both Georgian Dream and the Russian Foreign Ministry denied the report. This development comes amid assessments that Georgian Dream actors likely aim to derail Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration efforts, aligning with Russian goals to divide and weaken the country through hybrid operations.
Russia denied wrongdoing after a Russian-Danish woman was accused of intelligence ties. Moscow claimed Denmark provided no evidence and accused Danish intelligence of attacking Russia. The case relates to Russia’s efforts to influence Russian diasporas abroad, which the Kremlin uses as part of its hybrid warfare tactics against the West. A pro-Kremlin voice called for scrutinizing diaspora groups, saying most do not vocally support Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces targeted Russian air defenses in Crimea and Belgorod, destroying S-300 and S-400 systems. This forced Russia to move air defenses from Crimea to Belgorod, weakening coverage. Ukraine also damaged two Su-57 fighters in Astrakhan. These strikes aim to degrade Russian air defenses and aircraft, potentially enabling Ukraine to better use its own airpower in the future.
Ukraine may be proactively degrading Russian air defenses to prepare for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets, expected in small numbers starting this summer and fall. By weakening Russia’s air defense capabilities now, Ukraine could potentially use the F-16s more effectively to support ground operations in the future, if enough jets and trained pilots are available.
Despite Ukraine’s efforts to degrade Russian air defenses, material and training constraints will likely prevent Ukraine from using fixed-wing airpower at scale in 2024. Officials indicated that training enough pilots and providing the necessary 150+ F-16s will take significant time. However, even 18 F-16s could impact the air situation. These limitations should not hinder Ukraine’s long-term ability to leverage airpower if Western partners commit to supporting Ukraine’s air and deep strike capabilities.
A Ukrainian Border Guard spokesperson stated that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance activity has decreased in Sumy Oblast, with “almost no” current activity. Officials also denied recent Russian claims of seizing territory in Ryzhivka, Sumy Oblast. No visual evidence confirms Russian gains or presence in Ryzhivka since the claimed June 10 cross-border raid.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made marginal advances in northeastern Vovchansk, capturing a building in the Aggregate Plant area and pushing 200 meters into the city, despite losing several armored vehicles. They also continued ground attacks near Tykhe, Lyptsi, and Hlyboke in the Kharkiv region, while Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counterattacks near Hlyboke.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, Russian forces continued limited offensive operations but made no confirmed advances. They conducted unsuccessful attacks near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Berestove, Myasozharivka, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Torske, and in the Serebryanske forest area.
A Ukrainian spokesperson clarified that Tymkivka, a settlement the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured, has not existed since Soviet times. Ukrainian forces still control the area. The spokesperson suggested Russia made the claim for informational effect, counting on the average Russian’s lack of knowledge about the settlement’s location and existence.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Vyimka in the Siversk direction amid ongoing offensive operations. While a Russian milblogger claimed advances to the eastern outskirts of Verkhnokamyanske, this remains unconfirmed. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi stated that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Bilohorivka and are attempting to push towards Siversk from two directions. Russian forces also continued offensive operations near Rozdolivka and Spirne.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka, but made no confirmed frontline changes. A Russian milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near the Kanal Microraion in eastern Chasiv Yar. The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that Russian forces likely made a limited “break-in” in eastern Chasiv Yar, remaining on the east side of the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal while suffering high casualties. Russian forces are attempting to seize Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, and Kalynivka, with fighting ongoing in these areas.
Avdiivka
Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka, making gains within Nevelske and Novopokrovske, though the extent of their control over the latter remains contested. Russian milbloggers claimed advances near Sokil and south of Novooleksandrivka, but some reports were unclear. Russian forces continued offensive operations in Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Novopokrovske, Novoselivka Persha, Sokil, and Karlivka. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi stated that Russian forces are concentrating efforts in the Pokrovsk (Avdiivka) and Kurakhove directions, deploying numerous assault units from eight “shock” brigades.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Paraskoviivka west and southwest of Donetsk City, but made no confirmed frontline changes. Russian milbloggers claimed advances in central Krasnohorivka and north of Volodymyrivka, but these remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Urozhaine and Staromayorske, south of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblast border area. However, there were no confirmed frontline changes. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces completed clearing operations in Staromayorske, but this remains unverified.
Zaporizhia Line
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, geolocated footage showed that Russian forces made a marginal gain north of Myrne, near Robotyne. However, Ukrainian forces counterattacked and regained some limited tactical positions in the area. Positional engagements continued near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka as Russian forces aim to make further advances in the region.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Limited positional engagements continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, but there were no confirmed frontline changes in the area.
Ukraine News
Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight. They launched various missiles, including Kh-101/555 cruise missiles, an Iskander-M ballistic missile, and a Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, as well as 24 Shahed 136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down all missiles and drones except for the Iskander-M. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the Iskander-M struck a Ukrainian airfield in Poltava Oblast. Kyiv City and Oblast reported air defense activations in response to the cruise missile launches, with falling debris causing a fire in a residential area.
Russian forces also conducted a daytime ballistic missile strike on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The strike damaged administrative and residential infrastructure, resulting in civilian casualties and injuries.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
In a “Russia Day” speech on June 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of the country’s defense industrial base by highlighting recent labor awards given to officials from defense companies. Putin awarded “Hero of Labor” titles to Mikhail Budnichenko, General Director of shipbuilding corporation Sevmash, and Yeltugan Syzdykov, Chief Designer of aerospace company Raduga, in May 2024. He claimed that Sevmash’s production of nuclear missile carriers bolsters Russia’s nuclear triad, while Raduga’s advanced missile designs enhance the country’s defense capabilities, underscoring his focus on strengthening Russia’s military industry.
Russian forces reportedly continue to suffer from poor-quality supplies and uniforms. Former Russian Airborne Commander and State Duma Deputy Colonel General Vladimir Shamanov likened the Russian military to a “partisan squad” due to the substandard uniforms and the need for personnel to purchase better-quality gear with their own money. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger concurred, claiming that some Russian commanders are not interested in addressing their subordinates’ issues. Russian milbloggers have frequently criticized the poor quality and limited availability of supplies on the frontline, advocating for the government to transfer seized civilian vehicles, firearms, and boats to Russian forces.
Sri Lanka’s foreign minister stated that Russia agreed to stop recruiting Sri Lankan citizens into its military after meeting with his Russian counterpart. Twenty-two Sri Lankans who had joined the Russian forces managed to escape and return home. Sri Lankan officials accused Russia of deceiving its citizens into serving, including one who was promised a driving job but forced into the military upon arrival in Russia. Reports indicate Russia is increasingly using foreign recruits, including from Serbia, Cuba and African nations, for combat operations in Ukraine.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
On Russia Day (June 12), Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of Russia’s Security Council, reiterated his call for Russia to seize all of Ukraine. He published an animated map on his Telegram channel claiming the entirety of Ukraine as Russian territory, going beyond just the currently occupied areas or regions Putin illegally annexed in 2022. Medvedev has repeatedly called for eliminating Ukrainian statehood by capturing the whole country. Though his rhetoric is often more extreme than the Kremlin’s official stance, he appears to be conditioning domestic Russian audiences to accept maximalist goals of conquering all of Ukraine to garner support for the war effort.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org