Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces successfully conducted drone strikes against Russian military infrastructure and oil refineries in occupied Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and Leningrad Oblast. Meanwhile, Russian forces made marginal advancements within Vovchansk and near Chasiv Yar and Donetsk City. Amid these developments, Russian milbloggers experimented with different ways to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense following the appointment of Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. Additionally, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev threatened Yandex over its large language model’s non-compliance with Russian information operations, and a St. Petersburg court ruled to seize over 700 million euros of assets from three European banks on behalf of a Gazprom subsidiary.
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Picture of the Day
The site of the attack on Mala Danylivka. (Telegram/Oleh Syniehubov)
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Kremlin officials continue to allege that the West is trying to destabilize Georgia. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed the West recently failed to destabilize Georgia like they did in Ukraine, referencing false claims about the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution. Members of Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party have echoed these allegations, accusing the West of orchestrating protests against Georgia’s “foreign agent” law. These claims aim to derail Georgia’s efforts for Euro-Atlantic integration and are part of Russia’s ongoing efforts to divide and weaken the country.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Navy announced the destruction of the Russian sea minesweeper Kovrovets, countering Moscow’s claim of repelling attacks on Crimea. This is part of Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to target the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Earlier, Moscow reported shooting down nine ATACMS missiles and a drone over Crimea. The Kovrovets, with a crew of 68, is a Soviet-era minesweeper. Following successful Ukrainian strikes, Russia has moved most of its Black Sea Fleet from Crimea to Novorossiysk. As of February 2024, 33% of the fleet’s warships have been disabled.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it repelled Ukrainian attempts to strike occupied Crimea and nearby Russian regions, shooting down nine U.S.-provided ATACMS missiles and a drone over Crimea. Explosions were reported in Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, and near Simferopol, according to Ukrainian media. Russia also claimed to intercept dozens of drones over Belgorod Oblast and Krasnodar Krai. Ukraine has not commented on these reports. Ukraine has been targeting military sites in Crimea and Russia since 2022 to deplete Russia’s resources. No damage to civilian infrastructure was reported in Sevastopol.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces have secured stronger positions in Kharkiv Oblast following a new Russian offensive on May 10 towards Lyptsi and Vovchansk. He praised Ukrainian forces for their efforts. He warned that the offensive in Kharkiv might be the first of several waves, with possible future attacks on Kharkiv city and Sumy Oblast.
Lyptsi
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyptsi, northeast of Kharkiv City, without confirmed advances. A Russian milblogger claimed an 800-meter advance on May 18, but no visual confirmation exists. The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling Russian attacks south of Hlyboke and northeast of Lukyantsi, with ongoing assaults toward Zelene. The Russian Ministry of Defense and milbloggers claimed they repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyptsi.
Vovchansk
Russian forces recently advanced within Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, with confirmed movements along Haharina Street and to the southern bank of the Vovcha River. On May 19, geolocated footage showed these advancements. However, ISW has not seen Russian vehicles or sustained positions on the southern bank. Russian milbloggers claimed seizures of Starytsya and Buhruvatka, but these are unconfirmed. Ground attacks continued near Starytsya, Prylipka, and Tykhe.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with no confirmed frontline changes. A Russian milblogger claimed advances near Berestove and Myasozharivka. Offensive operations also continued near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Berestove, Kyslivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, Novosadove, Torske, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
The Ukrainian General Staff reported a significant increase in Russian activity in the Siversk direction, northeast of Bakhmut. Russian forces attacked near Verkhnokamyanske, Rozdolivka, and Ivano-Darivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar during mechanized assaults. Geolocated footage from May 18 shows Russian advances within and southeast of the Kanal Microraion in eastern Chasiv Yar. Russian milbloggers also reported progress in the area. Fighting continued near the Novyi and Kanal Microraions, Ivanivske, Vasylivka, Kalynivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, and Shumy. President Zelensky reported successful defenses near Chasiv Yar and noted that Russian forces have not managed to stretch Ukrainian defenses along the entire front lines.
Avdiivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka without confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed advances near Netaylove, Umanske, and Novooleksandrivka, but these claims lack visual confirmation. The tempo of Russian advances near Ocheretyne has slowed. Fighting persisted near Novokalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Solovyove, Novoselivka Persha, Novopokrovske, Umanske, and Netaylove. The “Atlant” Battalion operates near Ocheretyne, and Russian forces struck Ukrainian equipment near Sokil, although their main commitment is in the Chasiv Yar direction.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City amid ongoing fighting. Geolocated footage shows advances southwest of Marinka and in eastern Paraskoviivka. Fighting continued near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, Novomykhailivka, and southeast of Vuhledar near Volodymyrivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Fighting persisted south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske and Urozhaine, and southeast near Novomaiorske. Russian forces are reportedly operating near Makarivka.
Zaporizhia Line
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced up to two kilometers towards Hulyaipole. Geolocated footage from May 18 confirmed a 1.5-kilometer advance southeast of Hulyaipole.
Russian forces continued efforts to clear Ukrainian forces from Robotyne. A Russian milblogger claimed they seized a Ukrainian position northwest of Verbove, east of Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian attacks near Krynky in eastern Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 12 INJURIES: 45
- Russian troops attacked a recreation center in Mala Danylivka, a northern suburb of Kharkiv, killing six civilians, including a pregnant woman, and wounding 27. The strike, which involved two Iskander ballistic missiles in a “double-tap” attack, also left a fisherman missing. Among the injured were an eight-year-old girl, a paramedic, and two police officers. An ambulance was damaged in the attack.
- Russian troops struck Vovchansk, killing a 63-year-old man and injuring three others. The attack damaged residential buildings, hospitals, and other civilian infrastructure.
- Russian strikes on the villages of Novoosynove and Kivsharivka in the Kupiansk district of Kharkiv Oblast killed five people and injured nine. The victims included three men aged 58, 64, and 65, and two women aged 56 and 72. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure and civilians, escalating since Russia’s new offensive in Kharkiv’s border areas.
- At least six people were injured in Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast after a series of Russian attacks. A 74-year-old man was injured in a coastal area strike and is in moderate condition. In Beryslav, a drone-dropped bomb injured a 42-year-old woman and two men aged 42 and 71, all in moderate condition. Later, two more men, aged 59 and 70, were injured by a Russian drone in Beryslav.
The aftermath of the Russian air strikes against the city of Vovchansk on May 19, 2024. (Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office / Telegram)
Ukraine News
Ukraine’s Air Force reported shooting down all 37 Shahed-131/136 drones launched by Russia overnight, targeting Kyiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, and Kherson oblasts. Despite this success, other Russian attacks killed civilians. President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed condolences and emphasized the need for improved air defense systems around Kharkiv City. Ukrainian authorities continue to urge civilians in heavily attacked regions to evacuate.
Energy workers in eastern Donetsk Oblast came under attack by a Russian Lancet drone during repair work, the Energy Ministry reported. There were no casualties, but the workers were relocated. This incident is part of Russia’s ongoing campaign to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, aiming to destroy the power grid. Such attacks, condemned by Kyiv and Western allies, are considered war crimes under the Geneva Convention. Since October 2022, Russia has used over 1,200 missiles and drones against Ukraine’s energy system, causing over $1 billion in damage.
Ukraine’s Allies
U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps criticized the West’s delays in military aid to Ukraine as “completely nonsensical” and echoed President Zelensky’s concerns that Western hesitation to ensure Russia loses the war leads to unnecessary deaths. Shapps emphasized the need for immediate support to Ukraine, particularly with recent Russian advances in Kharkiv Oblast. He urged Berlin and other allies to send long-range missiles to Ukraine and allow strikes on Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine already has long-range missiles like the U.K.’s Storm Shadow and France’s SCALP, with reports indicating the U.S. has secretly sent over 100 ATACMS missiles to Kyiv. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposes sending long-range missiles, fearing it would drag Berlin into the war. Shapps stressed the importance of allies, including Germany, providing these weapons, noting that the German-Swedish Taurus missile, with a range of over 500 kilometers, could enable Ukraine to hit deeper targets, including the Crimean Bridge, but Berlin does not support strikes deep inside Russia.
The British government will supply Ukraine with 100 missiles in May, U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said on May 18. He emphasized that the recent Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, involving 30,000 troops, should be a “wake-up call to the West.” Shapps warned that Western values are at risk if Ukraine falls to Putin’s “tyrannical rule” and urged allies to provide quick support.
The next Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group will occur on May 20. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown will represent the U.S. The meeting will be the group’s 22nd since April 2022 and will include defense leaders from nearly 50 countries to coordinate military support for Ukraine.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces have intensified their drone strikes on Russian military infrastructure and oil refineries. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the new Unmanned Systems Forces launched successful drone attacks on Russia’s Kushchyovskaya military airbase and Slavyansk oil refinery, halting refinery operations and targeting aircraft used against Ukraine. Despite Russian air defenses intercepting several drones, significant damage was reported. Ukrainian intelligence confirmed the impact on aircraft and oil facilities, with explosions at a Vyborg oil depot also attributed to their operations.
Russian milbloggers are finding new ways to criticize the Ministry of Defense (MoD) after Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s appointment. On May 18, a prominent milblogger shared a document blaming artillery issues on soldiers’ mishandling. The milblogger used coded language to discuss these problems, a tactic used by others to cautiously criticize the MoD. Another milblogger directly criticized the inconsistent gunpowder in artillery shells, claiming this issue began in Spring 2022. Mikhail Zvinchuk of the Rybar Telegram channel also criticized the MoD, potentially increasing public pressure for reforms.
A St. Petersburg court ruled on May 18 that Russian authorities can seize over 700 million euros ($760 million) in assets from Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, and UniCredit on behalf of Gazprom subsidiary RusChemAlliance. This includes accounts, property, and shares. The ruling relates to a terminated contract for a gas processing plant due to Western sanctions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The court also prohibited Deutsche Bank from selling its Russian subsidiaries without President Putin’s approval to prevent asset alienation.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia’s National Technology Initiative (NTI) announced they developed a method to 3-D print anti-bullet and anti-fragmentation body armor using an unspecified polymer, which can be integrated into military uniforms. NTI official Igor Bederov mentioned that China uses a similar production method for some types of body armor.
Russia’s Allies
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister are presumed dead after rescuers found “no survivors” at the site of a helicopter crash in a mountainous area, according to Iranian state media. The helicopter reportedly made a “hard landing” near Tabriz and was completely burned. Rescue teams worked for over twelve hours in dense fog and freezing temperatures. Raisi, 63, was elected president in 2021 in a controversial election. Iran, a close ally of Russia, has provided military support to Russia, including drones and missiles, since the invasion of Ukraine.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev criticized Yandex, accusing its AI assistant Alisa of not supporting Russian information operations. Medvedev was displeased with Alisa’s responses about US asset seizures and alleged Nazi monuments in Ukraine, calling Yandex’s AI a “coward.” He suggested this undermines trust in Yandex and hinted the government might label its managers as “foreign agents.” Previously, similar complaints were made against AI models for lacking patriotic responses, indicating ongoing challenges for Russian officials in controlling information.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpo st.com