Summary of the Day:
Russia is significantly expanding its partnership with North Korea to address critical resource and labor shortages, with official Russian data showing 13,221 North Korean entries in 2024 – twelve times higher than in 2023. Most notably, North Korea now supplies 60% of Russia’s artillery ammunition, and their workers are entering Russia under student visas in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2397, which Russia itself supported in 2017. Kim Jong Un has publicly reinforced this alliance, pledging continued support for Russia’s war effort in a February 9 speech.
On the battlefield, Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, while Ukrainian forces made gains in Kursk Oblast and near Vovchansk. Russia continues recruitment efforts among its own citizens and those from Commonwealth of Independent States countries to bolster its military ranks.
In a concerning development for NATO security, German authorities failed to intercept six suspected Russian reconnaissance drones near the Schwesing Airbase between January 9-29, 2025, where Ukrainian forces receive Patriot air defense training. Despite employing various counter-drone technologies, German forces were unable to down the specialized drones or locate their operators, who may have launched them from ships in the North or Baltic seas. This incident suggests Russia is successfully applying combat-tested drone technology from Ukraine against NATO states, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in Western defense systems.
Picture of the Day:
Servicemembers of the 155th Brigade of Ukraine’s Armed Forces operate a French-made CAESAR 155mm self-propelled howitzer on the front line near Pokrovsk. (Pierre Crom/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
German authorities are investigating six suspected Russian reconnaissance drone incursions near the Schwesing Airbase between January 9-29, 2025, where Ukrainian forces receive Patriot air defense system training. Despite employing various counter-drone technologies, German forces were unable to intercept these specialized, modified drones or locate their operators, who may have launched them from ships in the North or Baltic seas. The German military has noted an increase in drone activity over their facilities, raising concerns about espionage and compromised military training operations.
This incident, which follows recent espionage charges against three German-Russian citizens, demonstrates Russia’s application of combat-tested drone and electronic warfare technology developed during its Ukraine invasion against NATO countries. The situation highlights Russia’s growing capabilities to resist NATO counter-drone measures, reveals vulnerabilities in NATO’s defensive systems, and suggests an increasingly aggressive Russian intelligence gathering approach against NATO members while using Ukraine as a testing ground for military innovations that could threaten Western security. These developments underscore the urgent need for NATO countries to upgrade their defensive capabilities to counter Russia’s evolving technological threats.
The Path to Peace
President Trump has reportedly spoken with Russian President Putin about ending the Ukraine war, though details of their discussions weren’t disclosed. In a recent New York Post interview, Trump claimed he has a plan to swiftly end the conflict and suggested the invasion wouldn’t have occurred under his presidency. While the Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied these talks, Trump’s administration has prioritized resolving the conflict within their first 100 days. A potential meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected next week in Washington. Zelensky emphasized that any peace negotiations must prioritize Ukraine’s security and stressed the importance of meeting Trump before any Putin discussions. The matter of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals has also emerged as a point of discussion, with Trump seeking access in exchange for aid.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry launched “Drone Line,” a new military initiative to expand drone operations within elite units of the Ground Forces and Border Guard Service. Defense Minister Umerov announced that five elite units will be the first to receive enhanced drone capabilities. The project aims to create a 10-15-kilometer-deep kill zone by integrating infantry and UAVs, providing aerial support and improved target detection. President Zelensky spearheaded this initiative, which the Defense Ministry says will transform battlefield tactics.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made progress near Sudzha in Kursk Oblast advancing along the Sudzha-Oboyan highway near Russkaya Konopelka. Fighting continued around several settlements including Sverdlikovo, Nikolskiy, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. While Russian sources made conflicting claims about control of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka, geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances in the area.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made advances in central Vovchansk, specifically in the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant area. Russian forces conducted attacks near Vovchansk and reportedly had reconnaissance groups operating near Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued attacking near Kupyansk, particularly around Petropavlivka, but made no confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed advances west of Zapadne, these claims remain unverified.
Borova
Russian forces attacked several settlements near Borova, including Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, Zeleny Hai, and Novoserhiivka, but failed to make any advances.
Lyman
Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman, targeting Yampolivka, Ivanivka, Novolyubivka, Nove, and Torske, but made no confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed advances near several settlements, including a 300-meter gain near Novolyubivka and 2.5 kilometers near Ivanivka, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces are reportedly conducting reconnaissance missions near Kolodyazi while Ukrainian forces attempted counterattacks northwest of Ivanivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have installed anti-drone nets over a two-kilometer stretch of road between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, reportedly to protect against Ukrainian drone attacks.
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk at Bilohorivka but failed to advance. A notable detail was their unsuccessful attempt to bypass Ukrainian positions using motorcycles.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar targeting both the city itself and the nearby settlement of Bila Hora but made no confirmed advances. While Russian officials claimed to have captured Orikhovo-Vasylivka northeast of Chasiv Yar, these claims remain unverified, with some Russian sources disputing them. Ukrainian forces reported destroying or damaging several pieces of Russian military equipment in the area, including tanks and armored vehicles.
Toretsk
Russian forces made advances near Toretsk with confirmed progress along Klymenka Street in northern Leonidivka. Russian operations targeted multiple areas including Toretsk itself, Krymske to the east, and Shcherbynivka to the west. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are resorting to using civilian vehicles for assaults in the area due to a shortage of armored vehicles.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces conducted extensive operations around Pokrovsk with confirmed advances west of Zvirove and in areas north of Novoyeliyzavetivka and southeastern Malynivka. Ukrainian forces managed to advance near Mine No. 3 in southeastern Pishchane. Russian forces attacked multiple settlements in all directions around Pokrovsk, with particularly intense activity to the east, southeast, and southwest. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west while continuously bringing in reinforcements. Russian claims of capturing Udachne and advances in eastern Zaporizhzhia remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces reported successfully damaging Russian tanks and fighting vehicles with mines south of Yasenove.
Andriivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kurakhove but made no confirmed advances. Their operations targeted multiple areas including Shevchenko and Andriivka to the northwest, Kostiantynopil and Dachne to the west, and Rozlyv to the southwest. While Russian sources claimed advances towards Ulakly and along Haharina Street in Andriivka, these claims remain unverified. Reports indicate that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces currently control Zelenivka southwest of Kurakhove.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced near Velyka Novosilka with confirmed progress northeast of Novyi Komar. Russian operations concentrated on two main areas – near Novopil to the southwest and near Novyi Komar to the north of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with Russian forces making no advances near Orikhiv and Robotyne. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported reduced Russian attacks in the area, noting that while Russians are attempting to form new assault groups, they lack sufficient forces for sustained operations. Russian forces are utilizing FPV drones with fiber optic cables in the region.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS-Sarmat) units are operating along the Dnipro direction, but no combat activity was reported by either side in the Kherson area.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a large-scale attack against Ukraine using 151 Shahed and decoy drones from multiple regions including Kursk, Oryol, Bryansk, Rostov, and Krasnodar. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 70 drones across 14 oblasts (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Volyn, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Odesa), while 74 decoy drones were neutralized by electronic warfare. The attacks primarily targeted six regions – Kyiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, and Volyn, with drone debris striking a building under construction in Obukhiv near Kyiv, though no casualties were reported.
President Zelensky reported that in the week of February 2-9, Russia launched over 10 missiles, nearly 750 strike drones, and more than 1,260 glide bombs against Ukraine. The deployment of decoy drones represents a tactical approach aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defense systems.
Ukraine has increased gas imports from EU countries, including Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland, following Russian missile attacks on its gas infrastructure. Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko reported that Russian strikes severely damaged Ukraine’s gas production capacity, estimating the country will need to import 1 billion cubic meters of gas by year’s end. Current imports stand at 16.3 million cubic meters. Additionally, Ukraine recently ended its agreement to transport Russian gas to European customers through its pipeline network after the deal expired in late 2024.
Ukraine and Poland are preparing to begin exhumation of victims from the 1943 Volyn tragedy this spring, according to Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland Vasyl Bodnar. The Volyn massacres occurred during World War II when the Ukrainian Insurgent Army killed thousands of Poles, with Polish forces killing many Ukrainians in retaliation. While this issue has strained relations between the two countries, they reached an agreement in January 2024 to proceed with the exhumations, which will be carried out by a licensed Ukrainian company with Polish partnership and joint funding.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 2
A Russian drone attack on Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injured two men aged 41 and 39, with one requiring hospitalization. The strike also damaged a gas station and a car.
Ukraine’s Allies
Estonian President Alar Karis called for the European Union to end all Russian energy imports and consider a complete trade embargo against Russia. This statement followed the Baltic states’ historic disconnection from Russia’s power grid. Karis argues for immediate action to prevent Russia from funding its war in Ukraine through energy exports.
Three top Trump administration officials are heading to Europe this week: Vice President JD Vance will attend an AI summit in France and the Munich Security Conference (Feb. 14-16), Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join the Munich conference before traveling to the Middle East, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will visit NATO headquarters in Belgium and travel to Poland. The visits come amid questions about the administration’s commitment to Ukraine aid, as while the US provided significant military assistance under previous President Biden, the Trump administration has not yet allocated new aid despite having the authority to do so. At the upcoming NATO meeting, Hegseth will focus on increasing European defense spending and seeking a diplomatic end to the Ukraine war, reflecting Trump’s “America First” approach. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz announced that during the Munich Security Conference, where President Zelensky will lead Ukraine’s delegation, officials will discuss future U.S. support potentially tied to access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, with Waltz emphasizing that Europe must take a larger role in Ukraine’s defense. Waltz also noted that Trump has discussed the conflict with leaders from China, India, and the Middle East, and while the administration is prepared to use sanctions to pressure Russia into negotiations, he did not confirm reports of direct talks between Trump and Putin.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities forced 29,000 Ukrainian children in occupied Crimea and 7,500 children in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions to join Yunarmiya, a Russian military youth organization, in 2021. Children from occupied territories are being sent to train at the Rosgvardia Military Institute in Perm and the Nakhimov Naval School in occupied Mariupol, where enrollment is planned to increase from 240 to 560 students by 2025. Schools in occupied areas conduct weekly military-patriotic lessons and require Ukrainian children to write letters supporting Russian soldiers.
Russia News
According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, North Korea sent 13,221 workers to Russia in 2024 – up to 12 times higher than in 2023 – with 7,887 entering on student visas, marking the highest number since 2019. This surge in “student” arrivals preceded North Korea’s reported deployment of troops to Russia in October 2024, suggesting Russia is strengthening its partnership with North Korea to address its severe labor deficit of 1.5 million workers as of December 2024. While the North Korean workers provide some relief and could benefit Russian businesses through lower wages, potentially allowing Russian citizens to shift to defense industries or military service, they represent only a small fraction of Russia’s needs.
This workforce cooperation mirrors a larger pattern of growing North Korean support for Russia, including ammunition supplies – with North Korean shells now constituting 60% of Russia’s artillery ammunition – and a mutual defense pact. Russia, despite being a permanent UN Security Council member, is violating Resolution 2397 which it supported in 2017, which specifically banned North Korea from sending workers abroad and required UN members to expel income-earning North Koreans by December 2019. Russia appears to be circumventing these restrictions by issuing student visas, raising concerns about the effectiveness of international sanctions and the potential for further military collaboration that could impact global security.
An explosion occurred in the engine room of the oil tanker Koala at Russia’s Ust-Luga port near St. Petersburg forcing crew evacuation. While the vessel was carrying 130,000 tons of heavy fuel oil, officials reported no oil spills or cargo leaks, and the ship was not at risk of sinking. The incident at the port, which was recently targeted by a Ukrainian drone attack in January, is under investigation. The Koala, built in 2023 and sailing under the Antigua and Barbuda flag, is not part of the U.S.-designated Russian “shadow fleet” of vessels used to circumvent Western sanctions.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1170
850490 |
Tanks +9
10001 |
Artillery +35
22879 |
Arm. Veh. +16
20813 |
Aircraft
370 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is actively recruiting drone operators from both Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries for military service contracts. A recruitment ad in Yaroslavl City offers one-year contracts with monthly salaries of 240,000 rubles ($2,476) plus a one-time bonus of 1,345,000 rubles ($13,877), with these benefits available to recruits from any CIS country.
Russia’s Allies
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reinforced his commitment to supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. He criticized the US for prolonging the conflict and expressed concern about Western intentions toward Russia. Kim pledged ongoing North Korean support for Russia’s actions, citing the countries’ strategic partnership agreement from June 2024.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com