Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian President Zelensky warned during the Munich Security Conference that Russian President Putin is attempting to manipulate peace negotiations by sidelining Ukraine and dealing directly with the United States. Zelensky cautioned that Putin aims to portray himself as victorious over US President Trump and is seeking to use Trump as a prop at Russia’s Victory Day Parade. US Special Representative Keith Kellogg indicated plans to engage all parties in peace discussions within 180 days, though noted that European states would not be directly involved in negotiations.
Russian advances near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast have significantly slowed since early February 2025, with Russian forces struggling to advance north of Kotlyne and west of Udachne. Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks near Kotlyne and Pishchane. The slowdown appears linked to heavy Russian casualties, with Ukrainian officials reporting approximately 15,000 Russian casualties in the Pokrovsk direction during January 2025.
Ukrainian drone operations have severely hampered Russian activities within three kilometers of Selydove, making troop rotations and resupply missions extremely difficult.
The Russian military appears to be shifting its strategy, redeploying elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army from Kurakhove to the Kostyantynivka direction. This redeployment suggests Kostyantynivka may become Russia’s main objective for Spring and Summer 2025, rather than reinforcing their depleted units near Pokrovsk.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is strengthening its defense industry through new partnerships with Western companies. Ukraine’s state defense company Ukroboronprom signed an agreement with French firm Thales International SAS to develop air defense, radar, and electronic warfare systems. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov also met with European defense companies KNDS and Boeing to discuss joint production of ammunition, drones, and air defense systems.
Picture of the Day:
Audience applauds to President Volodymyr Zelensky following his speech at the Munich Security Conference. (Olena Zashko/The Kyiv Independent)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian military withdrawal from Syria continues as satellite imagery from February 14 shows Russian cargo vessel ‘Baltic Leader’ and potentially the frigate ‘Admiral Golovko’ operating near Cyprus, having departed from Syria’s port of Tartus. Two other Russian cargo ships, the ‘Sparta’ and ‘Sparta II’, which left Tartus in late January, were spotted off the Netherlands’ coast, likely heading to Russia. This military evacuation occurs as Russia negotiates its future presence in Syria with the interim government, though both nations appear to be maintaining diplomatic relations. This shift in Russian military presence in Syria could impact regional power dynamics and stability in the Middle East, particularly as Russia redistributes its military assets between regions.
U.S. Deputy Assistant State Secretary Christopher W. Smith made an unannounced visit to Belarus on Feb. 12, potentially ending President Alexander Lukashenko’s Western isolation. The U.S. is offering to ease sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash in exchange for releasing political prisoners. Three prisoners, including one U.S. citizen, were already freed. This diplomatic initiative aims to reduce Belarus’s dependence on Russia and could mark a significant shift in regional politics, particularly given Belarus’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The outreach comes despite Lukashenko’s recent controversial seventh term, secured in what international observers called a sham election.
Russia has significantly reduced its military presence in Transnistria, a Russian-controlled region of Moldova, from around 6,000 to approximately 1,000-1,500 troops, according to President Zelensky’s statement at the Munich Security Conference. The remaining Russian forces are primarily guarding weapon warehouses rather than maintaining their traditional control over the region. This reduction occurred as Russia relocated troops to support its invasion of Ukraine, with many being airlifted out through Chisinau. The situation has been further complicated by the recent termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, despite Transnistria’s rejection of EU financial assistance. This development could potentially weaken Russia’s influence in the region and affect the broader geopolitical stability in Eastern Europe.
The Path to Peace
At the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Zelensky warned that Russian President Putin is attempting to manipulate peace negotiations by sidelining Ukraine and dealing directly with the United States. Zelensky cautioned that Putin aims to portray himself as victorious over Trump and seeks to use him as a prop at Russia’s Victory Day Parade. He emphasized that Russian forces must withdraw to pre-2022 invasion lines before peace talks can begin, following U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s controversial statement that Ukraine likely won’t regain its pre-2014 borders. Russia’s 2014 invasion seized Crimea and parts of Donbas, while its 2022 full-scale invasion occupied additional territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
U.S. Special Representative Keith Kellogg announced plans to engage parties in peace discussions within 180 days, stating that European countries would be excluded from future peace talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, despite being consulted. Kellogg justified this by citing past failed peace talks involving too many parties, while emphasizing that Europeans should focus on increasing defense spending. The U.S. State Department has asked European nations to specify their potential military aid and peacekeeping commitments to Ukraine for these talks.
European nations, led by France and Britain, are developing preliminary plans for potential peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevklur confirmed early-stage discussions, while Germany and the UK have expressed openness to contributing forces. Moscow opposes the initiative, warning of potential escalation. In response to their exclusion from peace talks, European leaders will hold an emergency summit in Paris on Feb. 17, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirming attendance.
Recent diplomatic developments include a phone call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, agreeing to restore diplomatic dialogue and prepare for an upcoming Trump-Putin summit. Senior U.S. officials, including National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, are heading to Saudi Arabia for talks with Russian representatives, though Ukraine will not participate. Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak stated that “Russia is not ready for negotiations.”
The G7 nations agreed to link future Russian sanctions to peace negotiation progress after February 2025, while maintaining their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty through military and financial aid, including a $50 billion loan agreement backed by frozen Russian assets. Kellogg called for increased sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, noting that 70% of Russia’s war funding comes from oil and gas revenue.
A proposed mineral resource agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine would give America access to 50% of Ukraine’s rare minerals and potentially include American troops as security guards post-war. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented this draft to President Zelensky on February 12, but Zelensky declined to sign immediately, stating it “was not ready to protect” Ukraine’s interests. While Trump has claimed Ukraine has “essentially agreed” to a $500 billion resource deal, Zelensky emphasized that any agreement must include clear security guarantees and benefit both nations.
At the conference, Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, warned against negotiating with Putin, stating “he will lie… betray… and force you to play his game.” Speaking alongside exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Navalnaya asserted that any deal with Putin would either be broken if he remains in power or become meaningless if he loses it. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski criticized Trump’s February 12 phone call with Putin, warning that empty security guarantees to Ukraine are dangerous and that Putin’s Russia remains Europe’s primary threat.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have made recent advances in Kursk Oblast region, particularly in southern Sverdlikovo. Military engagements were reported near several settlements including Sverdlikovo, Kurilovka, Russkaya Konopelka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka, with Russian sources claiming unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattacks in these areas. Russian military bloggers also reported advances near Pogrebki and Guyevo, claiming to control 70 percent of Sverdlikovo, though these claims remain unconfirmed.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful precision strike on February 13 near Yelyzavetivka in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, destroying a Russian military position. The target was a fortified platoon position, which had been using the location to launch drone attacks against Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on Volgograd City, specifically targeting the Lukoil Oil Refinery, which was previously attacked on January 31. While Russian officials claimed they intercepted 17 drones and that only falling debris caused a fire in the industrial zone, geolocated footage confirmed explosions in the city, with one drone reportedly crashing near a Russian military housing area. Russian officials reported downing 40 drones across Volgograd, Kaluga, Saratov, and Rostov regions, with one person slightly injured when a drone hit a residential building in Volgograd. The attack on the Volgograd refinery is part of Ukraine’s broader strategy targeting Russian oil facilities to disrupt Russia’s war funding.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near Kharkiv City at Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe though no confirmed advances were made. Russian sources claim a minor advance of 60 meters in Vovchansk, while Chechen and Rosgvardia special forces are reportedly conducting drone strikes in the region.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued attacks near Kupyansk targeting Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Hlushkivka, and Novoosynove, though no confirmed advances were made. While Russian sources claim to have captured Dvorichna and advanced near Zapadne, these claims remain unverified. Reports indicate Russian forces have a numerical advantage in drone capabilities in the area.
Borova
Russian forces launched attacks northeast of Borova targeting Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, Lozova, and Zelenyi Hai, as well as Novoserhiivka and Hrekivka to the southeast, but failed to make any advances.
Lyman
Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman targeting Nove, Kolodyazi, and Yampolivka. While Russian sources claim advances in central Yampolivka and southwest of the settlement, these claims remain unconfirmed, with Ukrainian forces reportedly maintaining positions in the forest east of Yampolivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Reports indicate a potential shift in Russian military strategy as elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army are being redeployed from the Kurakhove area to the Kostyantynivka (Toretsk) direction. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted this includes several motorized rifle regiments, a tank regiment, and an artillery regiment. While Russian forces have prioritized capturing Pokrovsk since February 2024, this redeployment suggests the Russian command may be shifting its focus to Kostyantynivka as its main objective for Spring and Summer 2025, rather than reinforcing their depleted units near Pokrovsk.
Siversk
Russian forces launched attacks near Siversk targeting three areas: Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka to the northeast, Verkhnokamyanske to the east, and Ivano-Darivka to the southeast. These offensive operations failed to gain any territory.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar and nearby settlements of Predtechyne, Stupochky, and Bila Hora but failed to advance. While Russian sources claim control of half of southern Chasiv Yar, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian reinforcements in the area lack combat experience and are using foggy conditions to strengthen their positions.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in eastern Shcherbynivka while continuing attacks on Toretsk and nearby settlements of Dyliivka, Krymske, and Leonidivka.
Pokrovsk
Ukrainian forces advanced in eastern Dachenske while Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Pokrovsk, targeting settlements including Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Udachne, Zaporizhzhia, Nadiivka, Preobrazhenka, and Uspenivka. While Russia claims to have captured Berezivka, Ukrainian forces reportedly maintain positions in half of Pishchane.
Russian military advances near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast have significantly slowed since early February 2025, following rapid gains in December and January. Ukrainian President Zelensky reported improvements in the Pokrovsk area, with Russian forces struggling to advance north of Kotlyne and west of Udachne. Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks near Kotlyne and Pishchane, prompting concerns from Russian military bloggers about the potential collapse of Russian positions south of Pokrovsk. There are indications that Russian forces may shift their focus to operations against Kostyantynivka in the coming months.
Russian advances near Pokrovsk appear to be slowing due to heavy casualties and effective Ukrainian drone operations. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces suffered approximately 7,000 killed and 15,000 total casualties in the Pokrovsk direction during January 2025. According to a Russian military blogger, Ukrainian drones are severely hampering Russian operations within three kilometers of Selydove, making troop rotations and resupply missions extremely difficult. The blogger also noted that Ukraine has established an effective defensive system combining minefields, artillery, and drones, while Russian drone capabilities continue to lag behind.
Andriivka
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kurakhove targeting Shevchenko, Andriivka, Oleksiivka, Dachne, Ulakly, Kostiantynopil, Bahatyr, Zelenivka, and Rozlyv. While Russian sources claim advances near Andriivka, Dachne, Kostiantynopil, Ulakly, and Bahatyr, they failed to make confirmed progress.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced northeast of Novyi Komar near Velyka Novosilka during a mechanized assault, while also attacking Novosilka, Burlatske, and Pryvilne. A Ukrainian brigade reported destroying Russian equipment during the assault, including a tank and two armored personnel carriers.
Ukrainian forces used drones to strike a Russian Strela-10 short-range air defense system southeast of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with activity focused near Mala Tokmachka, northeast of Robotyne. While Russian military bloggers claimed to repel Ukrainian counterattacks and seize positions in the area, these advances remain unconfirmed. Russian drone units were reportedly targeting Ukrainian positions near Orikhiv.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian and Ukrainian forces reported no ground combat in the Kherson region though Russian infantry units remain deployed to the area.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched 70 drones against Ukraine targeting multiple regions from launch sites in Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces intercepted 33 drones over Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk regions. In Mykolaiv, drone debris damaged agricultural and residential areas, while a defensive missile struck an open area.
A Russian drone strike created a 540-square-foot hole in the protective structure over Reactor No. 4 at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Analysis suggests this was a deliberate attack. Ukrainian officials say repairs will take months, and while emergency crews work to extinguish remaining fires, engineers plan to install a temporary seal that won’t provide full radiation protection.
President Zelensky urged Europe to establish its own armed forces at the Munich Security Conference, citing concerns over U.S. support against Russian threats. He emphasized that while Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia have increased defense spending, money alone isn’t sufficient for defense. Zelensky warned that Russia may be preparing for military escalation, potentially planning to deploy 15 divisions (100,000-150,000 troops) in Belarus. He stressed that Ukraine’s military experience is crucial for European defense, as Ukrainian forces are the only ones with modern warfare experience against Russia.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 3 INJURIES: 12
Russian forces attacked multiple regions of Ukraine in the past day. In Kherson Oblast, attacks on 35 settlements, including Kherson city, killed one person and injured 10. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian glide bombs struck Preobrazhenka, killing two people, and injured an elderly woman in Huliaipole. In Donetsk Oblast, one person was wounded in an attack on Novodmytrivka.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is strengthening its defense industry through new partnerships with Western companies. Ukraine’s state defense company Ukroboronprom signed an agreement with French firm Thales International SAS to develop air defense, radar, and electronic warfare systems. On the same day, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with European defense companies KNDS and Boeing to discuss joint production of ammunition, drones, and air defense systems, as well as maintenance of existing military equipment.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine and Germany signed an agreement to establish “Unity Hubs” in Berlin, providing support services for Ukrainian refugees. The initiative, signed by Ukrainian Minister Oleksii Chernyshov and German Minister Wolfgang Schmidt at the Munich Security Conference, will offer educational and career resources for Ukrainians both in Germany and those planning to return home. Germany has welcomed over 1 million Ukrainian refugees since Russia’s invasion, with more than 200,000 finding employment through the country’s Jobturbo program. The German government has invested approximately 21.4 billion euros in refugee accommodation and integration efforts.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian-installed authorities in occupied Luhansk launched a “Heroes of Luhansk Oblast” program, mirroring Russia’s “Time of Heroes” initiative, which places Ukrainian war veterans in government positions. This is part of Russia’s broader strategy to integrate occupied territories and militarize local government.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1730
858390 |
Tanks +5
10073 |
Artillery +11
23185 |
Arm. Veh. +84
21011 |
Aircraft 
370 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense showcased its “Molniya-2” drone, highlighting the aircraft’s 20–35-kilometer range and improved payload capacity compared to standard quadcopter drones.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
In an interview with Russian state media TASS, Viktor Medvedchuk, a Putin ally and former Ukrainian official, claimed President Zelensky is illegitimate and cannot negotiate with Russia. He further argued that Russia needs to control Ukrainian territories, disarm its military, and remove Western weapons to address what he called the “root causes” of the war. Medvedchuk also falsely claimed Russia’s withdrawal from Kyiv in Spring 2022 was a goodwill gesture, rather than the result of Ukrainian resistance. The timing of this interview appears to be a deliberate Kremlin effort to undermine Zelensky’s legitimacy as potential peace talks between the US and Russia begin to take shape.
Kursk Oblast authorities have launched an investigation into the “Sudzha Rodnaya” Telegram channel for alleged “fake news” about refugee issues. The channel had previously criticized local officials for mishandling civilian evacuations during Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion and failing to provide promised aid to refugees. Local residents continue to protest the inadequate government support for those displaced by the conflict.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com