Summary of the Day:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected peace proposals from US President-elect Trump’s team, refusing to consider delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership or allowing European peacekeepers. Meanwhile, President Putin signed a new extremism strategy document that formalizes his “denazification” policy toward Ukraine, maintaining his original 2022 demands for removing Ukraine’s government. Russian forces continued their offensive operations, making advances near Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, though they continue to face significant labor shortages and recruitment challenges.
Ukraine demonstrated effective adaptation in its defensive capabilities, successfully countering Russian guided glide bomb attacks in Kharkiv Oblast using machine guns and electronic warfare. In a significant development for Ukraine’s energy independence, the US delivered its first LNG shipment to Ukraine on December 27, part of a long-term agreement extending through 2026.
Regional tensions escalated as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused Russia of shooting down an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger flight over Chechnya and attempting to cover up its responsibility. Meanwhile, Georgia faced political instability as President Salome Zurabishvili departed the presidential palace while still claiming legitimacy, leading to protests in Tbilisi during the inauguration of her successor.
Picture of the Day:
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Ivan Fedorov/Telegram)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian threats against Ukraine and the West reached their highest level in September 2024, according to OpenMinds’ Russian Threats Index (RTI). The index hit 120 points, a 40% increase from its previous peak in October 2022. The surge came after Western approval for Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russian territory, triggering an average of one threat every three days, mostly nuclear and military in nature.
From 2022 to 2024, Russian threats evolved from mostly abstract warnings to more specific military and nuclear threats. By 2024, military and nuclear statements made up 54% of all threats, nearly double the 2022 level. Vladimir Putin leads in making threats (30% of total), followed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (14%) and Dmitry Medvedev (12%).
The increase in aggressive rhetoric coincides with the election of Donald Trump and appears aimed at securing a stronger position in potential peace negotiations. Russian officials have intensified both their threats and military offensive in eastern Ukraine, with autumn 2024 seeing the highest intensity of attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion.
The head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, and NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai have warned of Russia’s escalating hybrid warfare tactics, with Yermak specifically cautioning about potential provocations along NATO borders using North Korean and Iranian proxies, while Appathurai revealed that Russian hybrid attacks have increased to nearly 100 incidents since 2022, including attempts to smuggle flammable parcels onto cargo planes at European airports. These warnings follow the recent detention of a Russian-linked vessel suspected of sabotaging the Estlink 2 power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, highlighting Russia’s ability to cause significant casualties through sabotage operations against NATO countries. The escalation of these hybrid warfare tactics not only threatens European stability and NATO security but also challenges NATO’s Article 5 response protocols, marking a concerning shift in Russia’s aggressive posture toward NATO countries and raising significant concerns about the potential expansion of the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders through unconventional warfare methods.
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has publicly accused Russia of shooting down Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 over Chechnya on December 25, which resulted in 38 deaths among the 67 passengers and crew members when the plane crashed in Kazakhstan. Aliyev rejected Russian President Putin’s vague apology for the “tragic incident” and disputed official Russian explanations of a bird strike and gas cylinder explosion, instead claiming evidence shows the aircraft was damaged by ground-based fire near Grozny and affected by Russian electronic warfare systems after being denied emergency landings at Russian airports. The black box is being sent to Brazil, where the aircraft was manufactured, for independent analysis.
Aliyev has demanded that Russia admit culpability, apologize officially, punish those responsible, and provide compensation to passengers and crew, though he acknowledges the shootdown may not have been intentional. Western nations have condemned Russia’s “reckless” behavior and called for a transparent investigation, as this diplomatic crisis between Russia and Azerbaijan has strained relations between the two nations, potentially destabilizing an already tense region and raising serious concerns about civilian aviation safety in conflict zones, particularly given Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Georgia’s political crisis has intensified with the controversial inauguration of Mikheil Kavelashvili, an anti-Western politician and Georgian Dream party ally, as the new president following an election where he was the only candidate on the ballot, while former President Salome Zurabishvili departed from the presidential palace while maintaining she remains the country’s “legitimate” president. The transition has sparked protests in Tbilisi where police began arresting demonstrators, with Zurabishvili calling for continued protests against the ruling party’s apparent shift toward Russian influence, amid broader concerns about democratic backsliding marked by the passage of a controversial foreign agents law similar to Russia’s and recent U.S. sanctions on party founder Bidzina Ivanishvili.
The Nordic Baltic Eight (NB8) nations – Lithuania, Latvia, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland, Sweden, and Estonia – have collectively responded to the crisis with a joint statement expressing alarm over Georgia’s increasing political polarization, citing electoral irregularities, violence against peaceful protesters, and threats against former President Zurabishvili, while urging Georgian authorities to restore democratic integrity by investigating electoral concerns and potentially holding new elections, highlighting growing concerns about Georgia’s democratic trajectory, its European integration efforts, and the ruling Georgian Dream party’s apparent undermining of democracy and hindering of EU accession efforts.
Poland is intensifying efforts to secure its 400-kilometer border with Belarus by summer 2025, investing $611 million in enhanced fortifications including thermal imaging, night vision cameras, and strengthening its existing steel fence. This move responds to what Poland views as a “hybrid war” tactic by Belarus and Russia, who allegedly orchestrate illegal migration flows to pressure the EU. Under Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government, Poland aims to create a 200-meter buffer zone and achieve near-perfect border security. This border crisis has heightened regional tensions, particularly following a May incident where a Polish border guard was critically injured. The situation reflects growing security concerns in Eastern Europe and the expanding impact of Russia’s broader conflict with the West, with Poland serving as a crucial NATO frontier against what it perceives as Russian and Belarusian aggression.
The Path to Peace
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected two peace proposals from US President-elect Trump’s team to end the war in Ukraine, which were reportedly discussed during a December 7 meeting between Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and French President Macron in Paris. Lavrov dismissed suggestions to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years and to deploy European peacekeepers in Ukraine in exchange for Western arms, echoing President Putin’s earlier rejection while maintaining Russia’s original demands that Ukraine become permanently neutral, reduce its military, and remove its current government. While Putin expressed openness to dialogue and stated Russia aims to end the conflict in 2025, Lavrov dismissed the possibility of a ceasefire and insisted that any peace agreement must address what Russia claims are the root causes of the invasion: NATO’s eastward expansion and alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new Strategy for Countering Extremism that formally incorporates his Ukraine “denazification” agenda. The 2024 document newly identifies Ukraine as a major source of extremism and introduces the concept of “Russophobia,” defined as hostile actions against Russian citizens, language, and culture. This strategy aligns with Putin’s original 2022 invasion justification of “denazifying” Ukraine and his demands to remove Ukraine’s elected government. The Kremlin is likely to use this document to further justify its stance against Ukraine’s current leadership under the guise of anti-extremism measures.
German opposition leader Friedrich Merz stated that Germany would only join a Ukrainian peacekeeping mission with Russian consent. This comes amid reports that the UK and France are discussing sending troops to monitor a potential ceasefire. Merz, while critical of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s hesitancy on supporting Ukraine (particularly regarding Taurus missiles), emphasized that any German participation would require clear international legal mandate. Both Scholz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius have expressed caution about troop deployment, with Scholz ruling it out “at this stage.”
Slovak Defense Minister Robert Kalinak suggested Ukraine may need to give up territory to Russia, prioritizing immediate ceasefire over border integrity. While acknowledging Russia as the aggressor, he emphasized post-war stability over exact borders. This aligns with Slovakia’s recent policy shift under Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has stopped military aid to Ukraine and accepted an invitation to Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations in May.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces have developed effective countermeasures against Russian guided glide bomb attacks in Kharkiv Oblast. According to Kharkiv officials, Russia began using modified D-30 guided glide bombs in March 2024, launching them from within Russian airspace to strike targets up to 40 kilometers inside Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have successfully adapted by using machine guns and electronic warfare to counter these bombs, which cannot be targeted by conventional air defense systems. The effectiveness of Ukraine’s response is evident, as Russian forces have not conducted any guided glide bomb strikes on Kharkiv City since November 2024. Ukrainian forces have also reduced Russia’s capability by striking ammunition depots storing these weapons, leading Russian forces to shift to using Shahed drones instead.
Ukrainian Border Guard spokesperson Andriy Demchenko reported that conditions along the Belarus-Ukraine border remain normal. He noted that Russian forces in Belarus lack sufficient strength to launch a new invasion or escalate tensions along the border.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia fired six S-300/S-400 missiles from Belgorod Oblast at targets in Kursk and Sumy oblasts.
Members of the Chechen “Zapad-Akhmat” Battalion reportedly attacked a Russian military police checkpoint in Golovchino, near Belgorod City, following a dispute over vehicle documents. This incident highlights ongoing tensions between Chechen and regular Russian forces.
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reported that four telecommunications facilities used by Russian forces were destroyed in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The facilities belonged to Phoenix; an illegal operator active in the region since 2015. Additional incidents included equipment fires in Leningrad Oblast and destruction of railway relay cabinets in Yaroslavl Oblast. These attacks are part of ongoing efforts to disrupt Russian military communications and logistics in occupied territories.
Ukrainian partisan group “Atesh” reports that Russia’s 91st Naval Repair Plant in occupied Sevastopol can only repair ships, not build new ones. The Russian 68th Coastal Defense Ship Brigade is reportedly stationed nearby at Striletska Bay.
Russian forces installed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system near Ilych, Krasnodar Krai, to protect the port of Kavkaz and possibly the Kerch Strait Bridge from Ukrainian attacks. According to Ukrainian sources, Russia uses the port to ship stolen Ukrainian grain and military equipment to occupied Crimea via civilian ferries.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast without making confirmed progress. Fighting occurred near the settlements of Kruglenkoye and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. While Russia reduced its armored vehicle presence, it increased sabotage and reconnaissance activities in the area. Russian forces were reported operating in Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Ukraine’s Air Force has denied Russian state media claims about a Ukrainian pilot surrendering in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. While acknowledging that some former Air Force personnel have been captured, military officials stated that all active Ukrainian pilots remain on duty. The Russian news agency TASS had claimed that pilot Volodymyr Popovich had surrendered to Russian forces.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Hatyshche and Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, without making confirmed advances. A Russian military blogger noted that forces near Vovchansk have been stuck in positional warfare for months, failing to push Ukrainian forces away from the Belgorod Oblast border, and will likely continue this pattern into 2025.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. While one Russian source claimed that Russian forces advanced in southern Terny, this remains unconfirmed. Russian forces attacked multiple settlements including Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Lozova, Hlushkivka, Novoplatonivka, Zelenyi Hai, Pershotravneve, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Nadiya, Tverdokhlibove, Ivanivka, Makiivka, Hrekivka, Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Zarichne, Dibrova, Pletenivka, and the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Siversk without confirmed advances. Russian forces were reported operating near Verkhnokamyanske, east of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks on Chasiv Yar, though no confirmed advances were made. While Russian military bloggers claimed their forces reached Chernyshevskoho Street and the railway station in western Chasiv Yar, these claims remain unverified. Fighting continued around the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar and near Stupochky, with Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacking near the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal south of Novyi Microraion.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked Toretsk but made no confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances within Toretsk, these claims remain unverified. The fighting continued in Toretsk and near Shcherbynivka, with Russian drone units reportedly operating in the area.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Pokrovsk, specifically in the industrial area of eastern Pishchane and in eastern Novoyeliyzavetivka. Russian sources claimed additional gains in several nearby settlements including areas around Promin, Myrolyubivka, and between Novoyeliyzavetivka and Novovasylivka, though these remain unconfirmed. Fighting occurred across multiple locations including Pokrovsk itself, Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Lysivka, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, and several other settlements in the region. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces are primarily conducting infantry assaults rather than using armored vehicles in their operations.
Kurakhove
Russian forces attacked in the Kurakhove direction without confirmed advances. While Russian military bloggers claimed to have captured Shevchenko and reached Petropavlivka’s outskirts, fighting continued around several key areas including Kurakhove itself, the Kurakhivske Thermal Power Plant, and nearby settlements of Ukrainka, Slovyanka, and Dachne. Russian forces are reportedly operating along the Solona River and conducting attacks in multiple directions around Kurakhove, including the Zorya-Slovyanka and Sontsivka-Petropavlivka areas.
Andriivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Vuhledar. Ukrainian forces reportedly withdrew completely from the southern bank of the Sukhi Yaly River. Russian sources claimed advances near Zelenivka and Rozlyv, while fighting continued around Uspenivka, Kostiantynopolske, Yantarne, and Kostiantynopil. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Uspenivka and Rozlyv.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka without confirmed advances. Fighting occurred around Velyka Novosilka itself and nearby settlements of Neskuchne, Vremivka, and Pryvilne. While Russian sources claimed to have advanced to within one kilometer of Vremivka along the O0510 highway, only their presence about three kilometers west of Vremivka has been confirmed. Russian forces are reportedly conducting attacks from positions in Blahodatne, Zolota Nyva, and Shakhtarske toward Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made a small advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically in central Kamyanske. While Russian official Vladimir Rogov claims troops repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Kamyanske and continue advancing, Ukrainian military reports indicate no Russian offensive operations occurred near Orikhiv or Hulyaipole. Russian forces in the area reportedly face drone shortages.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted attacks in the Dnipro direction and on Velikiy Potemkin Island south of Kherson City but failed to make any confirmed advances.
Ukraine News
Russian forces have intensified their attacks on Ukraine during the Christmas period, with President Zelensky reporting that in the previous week Russia had attacked Ukraine with 370 strike drones, 280 guided glide bombs, and 80 missiles, including a recent launch of 10 drones from occupied Crimea with Ukrainian forces intercepting nine over Mykolaiv Oblast, while the city of Kharkiv suffered significant damage from ballistic missiles resulting in one death and six injuries, and during these attacks, a Russian missile entered Moldovan airspace, prompting Poland to deploy fighter jets in response to threats near its border, leading Zelensky to call for continued international support to counter these attacks.
Viktor Zabashta, Director of the Kharkiv Oblast Emergency Medical Center, reported that Russian forces are using “double tap” strikes – a method where they attack a location twice to target first responders helping the wounded. This tactic began in 2022 and has continued systematically.
Ukraine will name its first Military Ombudsman on December 30, President Zelenskyy announced. The position, first proposed in April, will handle soldiers’ rights violations and complaints. The appointment comes amid recent abuse allegations in the 211th Pontoon Bridge Brigade, where Senior Lieutenant Vladyslav Pastukh is accused of beating subordinates and reportedly tied a soldier to a cross for four hours. His godfather, Colonel Oleh Poberezhniuk, was detained for failing to address these abuse claims. The ombudsman will start work in early 2024, joining several other European nations that have similar military oversight positions.
In a significant move toward energy independence, Ukraine received its first direct US liquified natural gas (LNG) shipment on December 27. The delivery of 100 million cubic meters of gas is part of a long-term agreement between Ukraine’s DTEK and US-based Venture Global extending through 2026, with an additional 20-year purchase agreement. This marks an important step in Ukraine’s efforts to reduce Russian energy influence, as Ukraine has not purchased Russian gas since 2015. The timing is particularly crucial as the current gas transportation contract between Russia and Ukraine expires on December 31, 2024, with renewal uncertain.
Innocent Victims Of War
UNICEF reports child casualties in Ukraine during the first nine months of 2024 have surpassed 2023’s total, with approximately 600 Ukrainian children killed since Russia’s invasion began in 2022. Nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children have been forcibly relocated to Russian-controlled areas or Russia itself, with children sent to at least 21 Russian regions. According to a Yale School of Public Health study, Russia has implemented a systematic program of forced adoption and Russification of these children.
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 14
Kharkiv Oblast: One civilian was killed by a drone strike in Dvorichna village, with no attacks reported on Kharkiv city itself.
Donetsk Oblast: Six Russian attacks were recorded, resulting in one death in the village of Kotlyne.
Kherson Oblast: Russian artillery hit Bilozerka, wounding 13 people, including two children.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Downed drone debris caused fires in the Chornomorsk community, injuring one worker at an energy facility.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian forces conducted 331 attacks across nine communities, damaging buildings but causing no casualties.
Sumy Oblast: Three Russian attacks on border areas damaged a car in Seredyna-Buda community.
Ukraine’s Allies
Denmark, France, and Lithuania have provided Ukraine with over 150 million euros ($156 million) to strengthen its defense industry, Defense Minister Umerov announced. Denmark contributed 111 million euros, France provided 29 million euros, and Lithuania allocated 10 million euros. The funds will support domestic production of long-range drones, missiles, and artillery, helping Ukraine reduce dependency on Western arms. President Zelensky plans to produce at least 30,000 long-range drones in the coming year.
Poland has offered to boost electricity exports to Ukraine if Slovakia follows through on its threat to halt supplies. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to stop electricity exports to Ukraine after Ukraine announced it won’t renew its Russian gas transit contract, which expires December 31. Ukraine relies on EU energy imports due to Russian attacks on its infrastructure. While much of the EU has moved away from Russian gas, Slovakia remains heavily dependent on it. President Zelensky suggested Putin had ordered Fico to open “a second energy front against Ukraine.”
Latvia will send over 1,000 domestically produced combat drones to Ukraine through the UK and Latvian-led international drone coalition. Latvia also committed an additional 20 million euros to the coalition for 2025. The coalition, which includes Germany, Canada, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Sweden, Estonia, and Denmark, aims to support Ukraine’s drone capabilities. The alliance plans to raise 1.8 billion euros by the end of 2024, with Ukraine planning to produce 1 million drones domestically in 2024.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Ukrainian Deputy Tamila Tasheva reports that Russian occupation authorities in Crimea have drafted 50,000 Crimeans since 2014/2015, with thousands more mobilized since 2022 for the current war effort.
Russian occupation authorities continue to forcibly relocate Ukrainian children through the “Movement of the First” youth program. Zaporizhia’s occupation governor reported children from the region recently visited Moscow under this program. In Luhansk, occupation leader Leonid Pasechnik claims 60,000 local children joined the movement in 2024, with 50,000 participating in its events.
Russia News
A 16-year-old girl in St. Petersburg faces serious criminal charges for posting anti-establishment materials at her school, highlighting Russia’s intensified crackdown on dissent since its invasion of Ukraine. The teenager was detained on December 27 for displaying posters of Russian Volunteer Corps fighters Denis Kapustin and Aleksiy Levkin, who oppose Putin’s regime. She faces charges of promoting terrorism, which could result in significant prison time. This case reflects a broader pattern of Russian authorities targeting dissenters, including minors, with Freedom House reporting nearly 20,000 detentions for antiwar activities since February 2022. The severity of the response is further illustrated by the recent seven-year prison sentence given to Russian lawyer Dmitry Talantov for criticizing the military.
The new Russian strategy document signed by Putin addresses domestic issues that appeal to pro-war ultranationalists. It targets migrants in Russia, claiming they spread extremism, and calls for stricter migration policies and monitoring of migrant communities. The document also seeks to combat alleged “Russophobia” in South Caucasus and Central Asian education systems. This appears to be Putin’s effort to satisfy ultranationalist supporters of the Ukraine war while balancing Russia’s economic and military need for migrant labor.
Russia is facing significant labor shortages, with a current deficit of 1.5 million workers and a low 2.3% unemployment rate. According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia’s workforce dropped by one million people between 2022-2024, hitting the 19-40 age group and IT/retail sectors hardest. The construction industry alone needs 400,000 workers. Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and strict immigration policies, experts predict the shortage could reach 4 million workers by 2030.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +2010
787940 |
Tanks +7
9663 |
Artillery +44
21494 |
Arm. Veh. +22
20003 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukrainian EU Ambassador Vsevolod Chentsov revealed that Russia is equipping Shahed drones with AI to overcome Ukrainian electronic warfare and enable autonomous target strikes when networks are disrupted. A Russian military blogger claims these drones have been upgraded with new lenses and filming capabilities, though this has increased their production costs.
Russian media released footage of a new wheeled artillery system, possibly a modified version of the 152mm “Malva” howitzer. Built on a BAZ-6010-027 armored chassis, this system features increased firing ranges – up to 30.5km with standard shells and 33.1km with active-reactive shells. The system includes anti-drone screens and electronic warfare capabilities.
The Ural Civil Aviation Plant (UZGA) delivered its first two UTS-800 training aircraft to Russia’s Ministry of Defense. These aircraft will be used to train pilots at military educational institutions.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com