Summary of the Day:
Russian President Putin initiated diplomatic efforts to manage tensions with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan following the December 25 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane by Russian air defenses over Kazakhstan. Putin held calls with both Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Kazakh President Tokayev, though Russian statements notably avoided directly acknowledging responsibility for shooting down the aircraft.
Russian forces achieved territorial advances near several key locations – Kreminna, Siversk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces conducted a significant strike on a Russian Shahed drone facility in Oryol City, which reportedly has reduced Russia’s capacity to launch drone attacks against Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the completion of its Fall 2024 conscription cycle.
Russia took steps to modify its international security stance, with Putin signing legislation that would allow the removal of organizations from Russia’s official list of terrorist groups. This move appears specifically targeted at delisting both the Taliban and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), potentially signaling a significant shift in Russia’s relationships with Afghanistan and Syria.
Picture of the Day:
Carolers dressed in traditional Hutsul attire perform the Christmas koliada, a local custom, in Kryvorivnya village in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Vitalii Poberezhnyi / The Kyiv Independent)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
A significant international incident occurred when Russian air defense systems likely shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane on December 25, causing it to crash in Aktau, Kazakhstan. The incident happened while Russian forces were defending against Ukrainian drone strikes near Grozny, Mozdok, and Vladikavkaz. In response, Putin held diplomatic calls with both Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Kazakh President Tokayev. While Putin apologized for the “tragic incident,” the Kremlin’s carefully worded statement avoided directly acknowledging responsibility, contrasting with Azerbaijan’s more explicit statement about external damage to the aircraft. US intelligence sources suggest Russian forces misidentified the airliner as a Ukrainian drone due to its irregular flight pattern. This incident has created diplomatic tensions between Russia and its regional neighbors, potentially destabilizing important regional relationships during an already tense period in global security.
Russian President Putin signed a law that would allow the removal of organizations from Russia’s official list of terrorist groups, particularly targeting the potential delisting of the Taliban and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS). This move appears aimed at improving diplomatic relations with Afghanistan’s Taliban government and the HTS-led interim government in Syria. Russian commentators suggest this could open new trade routes through Afghanistan and help secure Russia’s military presence in Syria. This significant shift in Russian foreign policy could alter regional power dynamics and impact international counter-terrorism efforts, potentially affecting global security alignments and peace initiatives in both Afghanistan and Syria.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has warned about Russia’s “shadow fleet” deliberately damaging vital undersea cables across Europe, threatening international communications infrastructure. These incidents, including recent damage to the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia, appear to be part of a coordinated effort to disrupt critical infrastructure. The EU has identified over 50 ships in Russia’s shadow fleet, which is reportedly being used to bypass sanctions and finance the war in Ukraine. This systematic targeting of undersea infrastructure represents a significant escalation in Russia’s tactics, potentially threatening global digital connectivity and stability.
In a move that threatens regional stability, Russia’s Gazprom announced it will cut gas supplies to Moldova’s Russian-occupied Transnistria region starting January 1, 2025. This decision, which Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean denounces as using “energy as a political weapon,” comes amid growing tensions between Russia and Moldova. While Gazprom claims the cutoff is due to unpaid debts, Moldova denies these allegations and has declared a state of emergency. The situation highlights Russia’s continued use of energy resources for political leverage, particularly affecting Transnistria, which has been under Russian occupation since the 1990s. This development further strains relations as Moldova pursues closer ties with the West, having recently begun EU accession talks.
Pro-Russian hacker group NoName057(16) launched cyberattacks against Italy’s Foreign Ministry and two Milan airports, temporarily disrupting their websites. While the attacks didn’t affect flight operations, they came just days after Italy extended its military support to Ukraine through 2025. The incident represents another example of pro-Russian hackers targeting European infrastructure to protest Western support for Ukraine, highlighting the ongoing cyber dimension of the conflict.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast focused near the towns of Nikolayevo-Darino and Maryevka. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances in these areas and in the Sudzhansky Raion forests, these claims remain unconfirmed.
On December 26, Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian military drone facility located between Tsimbulova and Rudnevo villages in Oryol City, Russia, which was used for storing, maintaining, and repairing Shahed drones; the facility was relatively new, with construction having begun in August 2024, and according to Ukrainian military officials and General Staff, this strike has substantially reduced Russia’s ability to launch drone attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure, while Russian opposition sources reported that the attack, conducted with Storm Shadow missiles, resulted in nine Russian casualties, though this information cannot be independently verified.
Russia suspended flights at Kazan airport amid alleged Ukrainian drone attacks targeting multiple regions, including Voronezh, Rostov, and Belgorod. Russian media claims 56 drones were shot down. Similar flight restrictions were recently imposed at airports in Sochi and Astrakhan.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched ground attacks near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, but made no advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made a notable advance near Kreminna reaching the eastern outskirts of Terny during a mechanized assault. They continued extensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, attacking multiple locations including Petropavlivka, Lozova, Hlushkivka, and the Serebryanske forest area. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces conducted their first mechanized assault in the Lyman direction since November, using well-trained personnel for daily infantry attacks.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces made a small advance south of Vyimka, southeast of Siversk, during a mechanized assault in early to mid-December. While a Russian military blogger claimed a 2-kilometer advance in the Siversk area, this remains unconfirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces shared footage showing them repelling Russian mechanized assaults near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances in Chasiv Yar’s northern Pivnichne area, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces also conducted attacks near Bila Hora, Predtechnye, Stupochky, and Dyliivka.
Toretsk
Ukrainian and Russian forces made recent advances in Toretsk during ongoing fighting. Ukrainian forces recaptured positions in central and northern Toretsk, while Russian forces advanced along Rudnychna Street in western Toretsk. Fighting continued near the Tsentralna Mine, Central Market, Avangard Stadium, and near Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces continued attacks near Pokrovsk without confirmed advances, despite claims of reaching central Novoyeliyzavetivka and areas near Myrolyubivka. Fighting occurred around numerous settlements including Vozdvyzhenka, Promin, Zelene Pole, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Ukrainka, Pishchane, and several others. A Ukrainian commander reported that Russia is amassing forces in the area and increasingly attacking during poor weather following equipment losses to Ukrainian drones. Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle Pokrovsk from the northeast.
Kurakhove
Russian forces advanced to the eastern outskirts of the Kurakhivske Thermal Power Plant (TPP) west of Kurakhove. Military analysts suggest that Russian forces may face difficulties advancing westward through the TPP area if Ukrainian forces commit sufficient resources to defend it. Fighting continued near Kurakhove, Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, and Dachne.
Andriivka
Russian forces continued attacks near Vuhledar without confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces recaptured positions near Uspenivka, while Russian forces reportedly made minor advances along the Rozdolne-Kostiantynopil-Ulakly line, but these claims remain unverified. Fighting occurred near Kostiantynopolske, Yantarne, Ulakly, Kostiantynopil, and Rozlyv.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued attacks near Velyka Novosilka without confirmed advances. Fighting took place near several settlements including Rozdolne, Novyi Komar, Novosilka, Vremivka, Novodarivka, and Neskuchne. Russian sources reported Ukrainian counterattacks north of the Velyka Novosilka-Hulyaipole highway.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched an offensive operation near Bilohirya, northeast of Robotyne, but failed to gain ground. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counterattack in the Kamyanske area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks in the Dnipro direction without success.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 16 Shahed and other drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian forces shot down 15 drones over Mykolaiv Oblast, while one decoy drone was lost, likely due to electronic warfare.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that important personnel changes are forthcoming in the Ukrainian government, though he did not specify which positions would be affected. This follows earlier reshuffles in 2024, including the February appointment of Oleksandr Syrskyi as Commander-in-Chief, replacing Valerii Zaluzhnyi. While media had speculated about potential dismissals of Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, Zelensky has denied these reports.
Ukraine received its first U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipment through a Greek terminal, marking what Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak called “a strategic step.” The delivery stems from a June agreement between Ukraine’s DTEK energy company and U.S. firm Venture Global, containing approximately 100 million cubic meters of gas. This milestone comes as Ukraine’s Russian gas transit deal with the EU nears expiration, aligning with EU efforts to replace Russian gas supplies with U.S. exports.
Ukrainian President Zelensky condemned Slovak Prime Minister Fico’s threats to cut Ukraine’s winter power supply, suggesting Fico is acting on Putin’s orders. This comes amid Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure and after Fico met with Putin in Moscow on December 22. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry emphasized that Slovakia’s power supply is not charity but a paid commercial arrangement. The dispute emerged after Ukraine announced it would not extend Russian gas transit deals to Europe beyond December 31. Slovakia, still heavily dependent on Russian gas, claims alternative arrangements could cost an additional 220 million euros in transit fees.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 8
Russian artillery struck the village of Bilozerka in Kherson Oblast wounding eight civilians, including two teenagers. Among the injured were a 16-year-old boy, a 15-year-old girl, three men, and three women. All victims were hospitalized, with several suffering brain injuries.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s defense industry achieved a significant milestone in 2024, with domestically produced drones making up over 96% of all unmanned aerial vehicles used by its military, according to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The country manufactured over 1.5 million FPV drones and developed various other types, including the Palianytsia and Peklo long-range missile-drones. This success follows Ukraine’s 2023 goal to produce one million drones and the launch of the Brave1 defense tech initiative. Looking ahead, Ukraine aims to produce at least 30,000 long-range drones in the coming year
Ukraine’s Allies
Greece announced it will provide Ukraine with 24 Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles from its naval and air force stockpiles. These U.S.-made missiles can intercept cruise missiles and aircraft from sea or ground positions. The transfer, which involves 40-year-old missiles deemed unnecessary for Greece’s defense, follows earlier Greek military aid to Ukraine including armored vehicles and ammunition.
Russia News
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an updated anti-extremism strategy that newly labels Ukraine as a main source of extremism and officially defines “Russophobia” for the first time. The strategy claims Ukraine poses “serious threats” and promotes neo-Nazi activity, while defining Russophobia as hostility toward Russian citizens, language, and culture. This update expands Russia’s use of extremism laws, which have already been used to restrict news outlets, block messaging apps like Viber, and designate 65 organizations as “undesirable.” The government has also increased arrests of citizens accused of supporting what it deems extremist groups since invading Ukraine.
Russian authorities report two recent cases of alleged anti-military plots. The FSB detained a Russian citizen allegedly planning attacks on a Defense Ministry official and a pro-war blogger, claiming he had a hidden explosive device disguised as a speaker. Just days earlier, on December 26, four Russians were arrested for allegedly planning attacks on Defense Ministry officials.
Several major Russian state media outlets had their Telegram channels blocked across multiple EU countries, including RIA Novosti, Izvestia, Rossiya 1, Channel One, NTV, and Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The restrictions are currently reported in Poland, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Greece, Italy, and Czechia.
A major environmental crisis is unfolding in the Black Sea following a December 15 collision between two tankers near occupied Crimea, prompting Russia to declare a federal emergency. The accident, resulting in one tanker sinking and another running aground, has potentially released nearly 4,000 tons of fuel oil into the sea. While Russian authorities claim cleanup efforts are complete, Emergency Situations Minister Aleksandr Kurenkov warns of ongoing leak risks. The incident highlights concerns raised by the Kyiv School of Economics about environmental dangers posed by Russia’s aging “shadow fleet” of tankers.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1730
785930 |
Tanks +5
9656 |
Artillery +42
21450 |
Arm. Veh. +11
19981 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia completed its Fall 2024 military draft, conscripting 133,000 new recruits since October 1. While the Russian Defense Ministry claims these conscripts are only going to training and non-combat units, and won’t be sent to Ukraine, previous reports indicate that Russia often pressures conscripts to sign contracts that allow them to be deployed to the conflict zone.
Russia appointed Alexander Shlyapnikov, a graduate of the “Time of Heroes” program, as deputy governor of Kaluga Oblast. In his new role, he will oversee public safety and coordinate between security agencies. His appointment reflects the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to militarize Russian government and society, building on his previous work in patriotic education and territorial defense training.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com