Summary of the day: Russian forces are currently pursuing two tactical efforts as part of their offensive to seize Pokrovsk: one along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line to capture Myrnohrad and advance towards Pokrovsk, and another along the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line to widen their salient and reduce vulnerability to Ukrainian counterattacks. These efforts are likely preparatory steps before launching a more resource-intensive assault on Pokrovsk itself. Meanwhile, Russian authorities are establishing new volunteer territorial defense units in response to a Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, with Ukrainian forces making marginal advances north of Sudzha as Russians recaptured some areas. Recent developments also include a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet crash during a Russian drone and missile strike, the arrest of former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Pavel Popov on fraud charges and confirmed Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities in Rostov and Kirov Oblasts. Russian forces have made recent advances near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
Picture of the day:
Two MIG-29 planes fly in honor of fallen F-16 pilot Oleksii Mes during his funeral ceremony in Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Mes died on Aug. 26 as a result of an air crash during one of Russia’s largest mass missile attacks against Ukraine. (Libkos/Getty Images)
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia on September 3, despite Mongolia’s obligation to enforce an ICC arrest warrant against him. This marks Putin’s first trip to a Rome Statute signatory since the warrant was issued in March 2023 for his role in deporting Ukrainian children. Putin previously avoided a BRICS summit in South Africa due to similar concerns. The visit, aimed at discussing a “strategic partnership,” suggests Mongolia likely won’t enforce the warrant. This trip follows recent Russian-Mongolian military exercises, underscoring strong bilateral relations. Russia doesn’t recognize ICC jurisdiction and hasn’t commented on potential arrest risks in Mongolia.
A Russian private military unit, the Bears Brigade, is withdrawing from Burkina Faso following Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The 100-strong unit, linked to Russia’s Defense Ministry, had been supporting the junta in Burkina Faso since May. The brigade’s commander, Viktor Yermolaev, cited the need to defend Russian territory as the reason for withdrawal. This development occurs amid Russia’s efforts to expand influence in Africa, with an estimated 300 Russian troops in Burkina Faso. Meanwhile, neighboring Mali and Niger have severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine, alleging support for local rebels, though Ukraine denies these claims.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Mikhail Razvozhaev, the Russian-appointed head of occupied Sevastopol, claimed that Russian forces successfully repelled a Ukrainian attack on the city. He stated that Russian forces destroyed four aerial drones over the Black Sea and three naval drones in the surrounding area. However, these claims have not been independently verified.
A Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet crashed on August 26 while defending against Russia’s largest-ever aerial attack on Ukraine, involving 200 missiles and drones. The pilot, Oleksii “Moonfish” Mes, was killed after successfully shooting down four Russian cruise missiles. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense has appointed a special commission to investigate the cause, and the crash site was not disclosed. Ukraine has received 10 F-16s so far, with more promised by the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium. The loss of an F-16 and its pilot could significantly impact Ukraine’s air defense capabilities and air support operations in the near term, given their limited number of these advanced aircraft and trained pilots.
Kursk Front – Initiative Ukraine
Ukrainian forces have made a small advance to Nizhnyaya Parovaya, north of Sudzha, in Kursk Oblast. Meanwhile, Russian forces have recaptured Ulanok and eastern Korenevo. Ukrainian attacks continue near several settlements including Korenevo, Komarovka, Kremyanoye, and Lyubimovka. Russian sources claim Ukrainians are trying to create a route to Rylsk through Korenevo.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and Hlyboke, and northeast of the city in Vovchansk, with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian forces are reportedly attacking without armored support in some areas. Near Starytsya, Russian offensive operations are slowing down, though pressure remains elsewhere on the front.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault on Vovchansk. The Russians, advancing with tanks and armored vehicles, were forced to retreat after suffering losses. This attack is part of a renewed Russian offensive in the area that began in May but has since stalled. While fighting has decreased in intensity compared to other sectors, reports suggest Russia may be preparing for further attacks. The offensive in Kharkiv Oblast may have been aimed at stretching Ukrainian forces as Russia intensified its push in Donetsk Oblast, targeting towns like Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced northeast of Kupyansk, reportedly capturing Synkivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have seized Stelmakhivka southeast of Kupyansk, though this remains unconfirmed. Fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisynkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Myasozharivka, Tverdokhlibove, Novosadove, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Torske, and the Serebryanske forest area. Russian forces are reportedly attacking in small groups, recently reintroducing equipment use in their assaults.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued their offensive operations in the Siversk area. They attacked northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka, east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, and southeast of Siversk near Vyimka and Spirne. Despite these ongoing operations, there were no reported changes to the frontline in this region.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Chasiv Yar, a town in Donetsk Oblast, attacking the town itself and nearby locations including Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Bila Hora. Russian forces control part of Chasiv Yar but are unable to cross the eastern canal. The town’s strategic elevation could provide an advantage for future attacks on nearby Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kramatorsk if fully captured. The battle has been costly, with over 5,000 Russian troops reportedly lost in one district alone. These ongoing attacks demonstrate Russia’s continued focus on this region.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk, with confirmed progress along Chapaieva Street in northwestern Druzhba. Unconfirmed reports suggest a 500-meter advance in eastern Toretsk. Russian operations continued near Toretsk and surrounding areas, including Pivnichne, Druzhba, Niu York, Nelipivka, and Sukha Balka. These movements indicate ongoing Russian efforts to strengthen their position in the Toretsk area.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces have advanced in the Pokrovsk area of Donetsk Oblast, reaching a windbreak northwest of Svyrydonivka, moving northwards east of Hrodivka, and capturing parts of Novohrodivka and areas near Mykhailivka. Operations continued east of Pokrovsk near Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, and Hrodivka, and southeast of Pokrovsk near settlements including Marynivka and Selydove. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported intense fighting in the sector, with the most severe battles occurring near Hrodivka, Kamianyi Yar, Krasnyi Yar, Mykhailivka, and Novohrodivka. Russia has made Pokrovsk, an important Ukrainian logistics hub, its main target after failing in Kharkiv Oblast. Despite Ukraine’s efforts to divert Russian forces through operations in Kursk Oblast, Russia maintains its most combat-ready units in the Pokrovsk sector. Local authorities have urged Pokrovsk residents to evacuate as Russian forces approach within 10 kilometers of the town.
Russian forces are pursuing two tactical efforts to seize Pokrovsk. One effort targets Myrnohrad along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line east of Pokrovsk, while the other aims to widen Russia’s position along the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line southeast of Pokrovsk. Intense battles are ongoing near Hrodivka, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka, and Mykhailivka. Russian sources claim advances near Myrnohrad, Selydove, Ukrainsk, Memryk, and Halitsynivka, though some claims exceed confirmed evidence. These efforts likely precede a more intense offensive on Pokrovsk itself.
Russian forces are advancing along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, aiming to capture Myrnohrad and reach Pokrovsk’s outskirts. This strategy bypasses Ukrainian defenses near Hrodivka. After encircling Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, forcing a partial withdrawal, Russians hope to replicate this success between Myrnohrad and Hrodivka. However, Myrnohrad’s larger size may slow their progress. Russians might opt for a direct assault on Ukrainian defenses to maintain momentum, despite potential higher losses. They are likely pursuing the capture of Myrnohrad while simultaneously advancing towards Pokrovsk.
Russian forces are advancing into Selydove and towards Ukrainsk and Hirnyk, aiming to eliminate a Ukrainian salient that threatens their offensive near Pokrovsk and supports operations west of Donetsk City. This move protects Russian rear areas, secures recent gains, and prevents potential Ukrainian encirclement attempts. The Russian salient, spanning 21 kilometers from the Ukrainian salient to positions north of Avdiivka, is vulnerable. Russia hopes to overwhelm Ukrainian forces or force their withdrawal from areas east of these towns. The open terrain north of Krasnohorivka requires successful mechanized assaults, which have been challenging for Russian forces. While Russian infantry has progressed in the Pokrovsk direction, maintaining this pace towards Ukrainsk and Hirnyk remains uncertain.
The Russian military aims to secure tactical advantages before launching a major assault on Pokrovsk. They may begin urban combat in Pokrovsk if progress stalls elsewhere. It’s unclear if Russia plans to attack Pokrovsk directly or attempt to surround it, as they failed to do with Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Their strategy will likely depend on where Ukrainian forces choose to concentrate their defenses.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued their offensive operations west of Donetsk City, focusing on the areas near Heorhiivka and Krasnohorivka. However, no confirmed territorial gains were reported.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced southwest of Donetsk City, with confirmed progress in fields south of Pobieda. Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian advances north of the T-05-09 highway west of Pavlivka and northeast of Vuhledar. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar. These movements indicate ongoing Russian efforts to expand their control in the area southwest of Donetsk City.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
There were no reports of offensive operations by either Russian or Ukrainian forces in the area.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian advances north and east of Robotyne. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks in Robotyne, as well as near Novodanylivka to the north and Mala Tokmachka to the northeast. These activities indicate ongoing Russian efforts to maintain pressure in the Zaporizhia region, particularly around Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
There were no reports of offensive operations by either Russian or Ukrainian forces in the area.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a major attack on Ukraine using drones and missiles. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk reported that Russia fired 79 weapons, including 74 Shahed drones and five missiles. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 62 of these, including 60 drones and two missiles, over multiple regions. The remaining 14 drones reportedly missed their targets. The attacks targeted areas across Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Donetsk.
Ukrainian State Border Service Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko reported no significant increase in Belarusian forces near the Ukrainian border. Ukraine continues to monitor the situation closely, has built fortifications, and is strengthening its border defenses as a precaution. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests Belarus’s troop movements are likely meant to divert Ukrainian forces from other fronts, rather than signaling an imminent invasion. Experts believe a Belarusian invasion is unlikely due to limited military capabilities and potential domestic consequences for President Lukashenko’s regime. Despite this, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has warned Belarus against “unfriendly actions” following reports of troop concentrations in the Gomel region.
An ecological disaster is unfolding in the Seym River, a tributary of the Desna, reportedly due to Russian activities in the Kursk Region. Residents of Baturyn, Ukraine, noticed an unpleasant smell from the river on August 26. Environmental inspectors found low oxygen levels in the water, likely originating from the Russian settlement of Tyotkino. The State Fisheries Agency of Ukraine reported large-scale pollution spreading from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast, with “black water, smell of rot, ammonia, and dead fish” observed. Local authorities have temporarily banned swimming, fishing, and water use for economic purposes in several communities along the river.
Ukraine commemorated the Day of Remembrance of Defenders, recalling the 2014 Battle of Ilovaisk. President Zelensky condemned the “planned, cynical Russian war crime” that resulted in over 360 Ukrainian soldiers killed during a retreat through an agreed-upon corridor from the besieged city of Ilovaisk in Donetsk Oblast. This event, the largest single loss for Ukraine in the Donbas war at that time, led to the first Minsk Agreement. Ilovaisk remains under Russian occupation. Ukraine vows that this crime will not go unpunished, with Zelensky emphasizing the nation will never forget this tragedy.
On August 26, Russia launched its largest aerial strike against Ukraine, firing over 230 missiles and drones. The attack led to the disconnection of four nuclear power units: three at the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant and one at the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant in Mykolaiv Oblast. The strike targeted energy infrastructure, necessitating energy restrictions and rolling blackouts. Nuclear generation currently covers up to 60% of Ukraine’s electricity consumption.
A recent poll by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation reveals that nearly 80% of Ukrainians hold all Russians, not just the Kremlin, responsible for the aggression against Ukraine. The survey, conducted in August 2023, found that 76% of respondents agreed with this sentiment, while 20% disagreed. Additionally, 65% believe the Russian population encourages their leadership to continue the war. This poll comes after 10 years of conflict and over two and a half years of full-scale invasion.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 5 INJURIES: 43
- Russian forces attacked Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring nine people and damaging over 230 cars, a car repair shop, and administrative buildings. Overnight attacks on August 29 in the Nikopol district also damaged a school, post office, church, and shop.
- Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast resulted in five deaths and six injuries over the past day. An airstrike on Izmailivka village killed a family of four, while another attack on Lysivka village claimed one more life. Injuries were reported in Nykonorivka, Chasiv Yar, Shcherbynivka, and Kostiantynivka.
- A Russian airstrike on Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, injured 17 people, including three police officers. The attack damaged the city administration building, a hotel, homes, cars, shops, and other civilian infrastructure.
- In Kherson Oblast, Russian attacks over the past day resulted in five people being injured.
- In Sumy Oblast’s Mykolaivka community, Russian attacks injured six people.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged partners to deliver promised Patriot air defense systems without delay. While Ukraine has received systems from Germany and the U.S., with additional contributions from the Netherlands and Spain, Kuleba stressed that some announced systems haven’t arrived yet. The U.S., Romania, and the Netherlands pledged additional systems in June, but their delivery is pending. Kuleba emphasized the urgency, stating delays cost lives. Patriot systems are crucial for Ukraine’s air defense, capable of intercepting advanced missiles like Kinzhals. Other Western systems like IRIS-T, NASAMS, Hawk, and SAMP/T also contribute to Ukraine’s defense. The need for faster deliveries is heightened following Russia’s largest aerial attack on August 26.
The European Union plans to expedite the delivery of weapons and equipment for Ukraine’s energy system, according to Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. This decision follows Russia’s largest-ever aerial attack on Ukraine, which damaged the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant and killed seven people. Kuleba welcomed EU members’ readiness to advocate for lifting restrictions on strikes against legitimate military targets in Russia. Despite Russia redeploying 30,000 troops to the Kursk Oblast sector, Ukrainian forces report dire situations near Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Kuleba also noted Ukraine’s progress towards EU membership, including the ratification of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.
A Scranton, Pennsylvania ammunition plant has increased production of 155 mm artillery shells by 50%, now producing 36,000 rounds monthly, many destined for Ukraine. The General Dynamics facility, located in President Joe Biden’s birthplace, is undergoing modernization to further boost output. The U.S. has sent over 3 million such shells to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began. Meanwhile, European allies have fallen short of their promise to deliver 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine, supplying only half and extending their deadline to the end of 2024.
Czech-led initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine is on track, according to Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky. The initiative aims to provide 500,000 artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of 2024, with initial deliveries of 50,000 shells in July and August, increasing to 80,000-100,000 monthly from September.
Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze has defended Ukraine’s military operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast as a legitimate act of self-defense under the U.N. Charter.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces conducted successful strikes on Russian targets on the night of August 27-28, 2024. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed attacks on the Atlas Oil Refinery in Rostov Oblast and the Zenit Oil Depot in Kirov Oblast. They also struck a Russian artillery warehouse in Voronezh Oblast. The strike on the Atlas Oil Refinery caused a fire in its vertical reservoirs. These attacks demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to conduct long-range strikes deep within Russian territory.
Russian authorities arrested and charged former Deputy Defense Minister Army General Pavel Popov with large-scale fraud. He’s accused of embezzling funds meant for the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Patriot Park in Moscow. This case is linked to earlier fraud cases involving park head Vyacheslav Akhmedov and Major General Vladimir Shesterov, who were arrested for embezzling over 40 million rubles. Some Russian sources suggest these arrests might indicate a decline in former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s influence within the Kremlin, as authorities target his former associates.
Pavel Durov, founder and CEO of Telegram, was charged by a French court for violations related to the messaging app. Arrested near Paris, Durov was questioned about Telegram’s alleged role in illegal activities. He was released on €5 million bail but must remain in France. Durov claims no knowledge of illegal activities on Telegram and had previously declined invitations to move the company to Paris. The case has geopolitical implications, as Moscow reportedly seeks Telegram’s encryption codes, while Durov has resisted sharing user data with Russian authorities, particularly concerning Ukrainian users.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities are forming new volunteer territorial defense units, including “BARS-Kursk,” “BARS-Bryansk,” and “BARS-Belgorod,” in response to a Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. This strategy, announced by Acting Kursk Governor Alexei Smirnov, aims to ensure security and assist in resettling border areas while avoiding redeployment of experienced troops from key areas like Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Volunteers, estimated at 4,921 in total, will sign six-month contracts, receive training and weapons, and support the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces. This move highlights President Putin’s reluctance to mobilize forces or redeploy troops from eastern Ukraine, preferring to maintain offensive momentum there while using conscripts and irregular forces for border defense. Putin is likely to continue this approach, avoiding unpopular general mobilization, until offensive operations in eastern Ukraine conclude. Only then might he consider moving more effective forces to push Ukrainian units back across the border.
Russian lawmakers have proposed a bill to allow accused criminals to sign military service contracts during mobilization, martial law, and wartime. The bill, submitted by State Duma deputies, excludes those accused of crimes against minors. It also permits individuals with criminal records or expunged records to enlist. This move appears to expand on existing practices of recruiting convicts for military service in Ukraine, possibly without requiring immediate pardons. The proposal aims to address Russia’s ongoing manpower needs for its operations in Ukraine.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov claimed that Russia is advancing its drone production industry, aiming to use more domestically produced components. This statement comes as China plans to restrict exports of certain drone parts to Russia starting September 1. Russia has previously depended on Chinese components to bypass sanctions and overcome limitations in its domestic technology sector, particularly for drone production.
Russia’s Allies
The Hajun Project, an independent Belarusian monitoring group, reported that Belarus used its air force for the first time to intercept and shoot down a Russian Shahed drone that violated its airspace over Yelsk Raion, Gomel Oblast. The incident occurred during a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine. Belarusian forces used a fixed-wing aircraft for the interception, and explosions and a bright flash were observed in the area.
Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto opposes increased weapons supply to Ukraine, arguing against escalation of the war. This stance contradicts EU Foreign Affairs Chief Josep Borrell’s call to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons against Russian targets. Hungary, known for its pro-Kremlin stance, has consistently hindered EU sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have intensified their rhetoric against Western military aid to Ukraine. They accuse Ukraine and its Western allies of escalating the conflict and obstructing peace talks. These statements come as Western nations consider expanding support for Ukraine. Russia appears to be trying to influence Western policy decisions by amplifying these narratives at crucial moments in the ongoing conflict.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com