Summary of the Day:
Russian forces captured 4,168 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024, primarily fields and small settlements, at a reported cost of over 420,000 casualties. Despite these advances, Russia failed to achieve its primary objectives of seizing all of Donetsk Oblast and establishing a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv Oblast. The largest gains included four mid-sized settlements – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove – with the largest having a pre-war population of just 31,000.
At the current pace of advance, military analysts estimate it would take Russia more than two years to capture the remaining territory in Donetsk Oblast alone, assuming they can take large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields, and without facing Ukrainian counterattacks. While Ukrainian forces have yet to completely halt Russian advances in priority sectors, they demonstrated new capabilities by using naval drones to down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Crimea and conducted successful strikes against the Yarsevskaya oil depot and Russian military targets in Kursk Oblast.
As 2024 drew to a close, Putin declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland” while simultaneously announcing cuts to prisoner recruitment bonuses, highlighting Russia’s attempts to balance military recruitment with mounting war costs. Western aid remains crucial for Ukraine’s ability to stabilize the frontline in 2025 as Russian forces continue their slow but persistent advance.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainian soldiers watch the Zelensky New Years Eve address from their base in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent New Year greetings to select European leaders who have maintained ties with Moscow despite its invasion of Ukraine. The recipients included Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pope Francis. Each recipient has shown varying degrees of support for Russia: Hungary has opposed EU sanctions and blocked military aid to Ukraine, Serbia relies heavily on Russian gas, and Turkey continues to facilitate Russian oil trade while also supporting Ukraine. Additionally, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has halted military support to Ukraine, received a message and accepted an invitation to Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations. Pope Francis has drawn controversy for suggesting Russia and Ukraine are “brothers” and calling for negotiations, echoing rhetoric Putin used to justify the invasion. These diplomatic gestures highlight growing divisions within Europe over the Ukraine conflict, potentially undermining unified Western support for Ukraine and impacting regional stability.
U.S. Treasury officials sanctioned two organizations for running Iranian and Russian disinformation campaigns targeting American voters. The Moscow-based Center for Geopolitical Expertise and Iran’s Cognitive Design Production Center were identified as key players in spreading false information ahead of the November election. The Russian center created AI-generated deepfake videos and fake news websites, while the Iranian group, linked to the Revolutionary Guard, focused on inflaming political tensions and encouraging protests over the Israel-Hamas conflict. U.S. intelligence reports that Iran has also hacked accounts of high-profile U.S. officials, including members of Donald Trump’s campaign.
Russia’s leaked military plans, developed between 2008-2014 but still considered relevant today, reveal strategies to target 160 civilian and military sites in Japan and South Korea during a potential NATO conflict. The plans include strikes on military bases, command centers, and critical civilian infrastructure like nuclear power plants, bridges, and industrial facilities in both countries. The revelation comes amid escalating tensions, with Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister recently discussing preparation for a possible NATO conflict within the next decade, while NATO members are considering increasing defense spending from 2% to 3% of GDP by 2030. This development significantly heightens global security concerns and raises the stakes for maintaining peace in both Europe and Asia, particularly given Russia’s demonstrated willingness to engage in military conflict.
The Path to Peace
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Fico’s surprise visit to Putin and offer to host peace negotiations has drawn criticism. International observers warn that any ceasefire agreement must adhere to international law to prevent setting a dangerous precedent for future conflicts. There are also concerns that Russia, which is expanding its military capabilities, may use any ceasefire to regroup rather than pursue lasting peace.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces captured 4,168 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024, primarily consisting of fields and small settlements. According to Ukrainian military leadership, this advance came at a steep cost of approximately 427,000 Russian casualties. More than half of Russia’s territorial gains occurred between September and November 2024. Russian official Dmitry Medvedev reported that Russia recruited 440,000 new soldiers in 2024, roughly matching their casualty rate.
Russian advances slowed significantly in December 2024, capturing only 593 square kilometers (18.1 square kilometers per day) compared to nearly 28 square kilometers daily in November. Despite the slower advance, Russian casualties remained high, averaging 1,585 personnel per day in December, with reports of up to 1,700 daily casualties in late December. This marked the fourth consecutive month of record-high Russian casualty rates, even as their territorial gains diminished.
In 2024, Russia’s military focused primarily on capturing the rest of Donetsk Oblast and creating a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv Oblast but failed to achieve either objective. Their most significant victory was taking Avdiivka in mid-February 2024, followed by advances toward Pokrovsk and Selydove. While Russia initially aimed to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by year’s end, slow progress forced them to scale back their goals to focus mainly on seizing Pokrovsk.
After a Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, Russian forces refocused on the Pokrovsk area in late summer and fall 2024, capturing Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove. They are currently attempting to surround Velyka Novosilka and Pokrovsk, though experiencing heavy losses in armored vehicles during these operations. Russia appears to be shifting some focus westward toward the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border, timing this push with efforts to weaken Western support for Ukraine.
In 2024, Russian forces captured only four mid-sized Ukrainian settlements: Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove – the largest having a pre-war population of just 31,000. These captures required significant time and casualties, with Avdiivka taking four months to seize and both Selydove and Kurakhove requiring two months each. In mid-December alone, Russia reportedly lost nearly 3,000 personnel near Pokrovsk. To capture the remaining 8,559 square kilometers of Donetsk Oblast, which includes major cities and key defensive positions, Russia would need over two years at their current pace – and this assumes they can take large urban areas as easily as fields and small villages, without facing Ukrainian counterattacks.
Despite Ukrainian successes in stalling Russian advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, Russia continues to make slow progress near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukraine faces challenges with troop numbers and morale, while Putin appears to believe Russia can advance indefinitely without considering potential Ukrainian resistance. Ukraine’s ability to halt Russian advances in 2025 will depend heavily on Western aid, particularly for drone operations, artillery, long-range strike capabilities, and infantry support.
In a historic first reported by Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR), a Magura V5 naval drone successfully shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter and damaged another near Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea, using a “Sea Dragon” missile, while Ukrainian forces also reportedly destroyed a Russian Tor air defense system in southern Ukraine, possibly near Sevastopol’s Kozacha Bay; though Sevastopol’s occupation governor acknowledged repelling drone attacks, he didn’t mention the helicopter loss, but Russian military bloggers expressed concern that Ukraine’s new naval drone air defense capability could complicate their anti-drone operations, which rely heavily on helicopters and fighter jets; notably, the Magura V5, which has been operational since summer 2023 with a range of 800 kilometers and capacity to carry a 250-kilogram warhead, was recently modified to launch anti-aircraft missiles and has previously sunk several Russian vessels including the Caesar Kunikov landing ship, Sergei Kotov patrol ship, and Ivanovets missile corvette.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made advances in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. They captured the settlement of Kruglenkoye, which was previously held by North Korean and Russian forces and moved east of Pogrebki along Highway 38K-024. Russian forces claimed advances near Russkaya Konopelka, Agronom, and Makhnovka, positioning themselves about 2.5 kilometers from Sudzha.
Ukrainian forces conducted two significant strikes into Russian territory: the first targeted the Yarsevskaya oil depot in Russia’s Smolensk region near the Ukrainian border, with Ukrainian special forces and drone units causing multiple explosions and fires at the facility that supplies the Russian military, while Governor Vasily Anokhin reported that Russian air defenses intercepted multiple drones, though debris from one struck the facility, and Russia claims it shot down 68 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 10 over Smolensk; Russian officials initially confirmed the drone strike but later changed their story to claim the fire resulted from downed drone debris.
The second strike reportedly hit a Russian military building in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, with Ukrainian forces allegedly using Storm Shadow missiles, and while Russian opposition sources reported eight Russian military casualties and several wounded, Russian officials claimed the strike hit an apartment building instead; notably, these attacks occurred just after a major prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the UAE, in which over 300 prisoners were swapped, and Ukraine has targeted Russian energy facilities throughout the conflict, viewing it as legitimate retaliation for Russian attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched ground attacks along the international border near Kharkiv City targeting the areas around Kozacha Lopan, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk, but failed to make any confirmed advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian and Russian forces both made advances near Kreminna, with Ukrainian forces gaining ground in northern Terny while Russian forces advanced in the southern part of the settlement. Russian forces claim to control 90% of Terny. Russian forces conducted multiple attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including near Nova Kruhlyakivka, though poor weather conditions have hampered their operations. Additional Russian attacks occurred across multiple settlements in the region, including areas north of Kupyansk, west of Svatove, and around Kreminna.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces advanced near Siversk, reportedly capturing Ivano-Darivka. They claim to be moving toward a water reservoir east of Siversk and advancing along a railway south of Vyimka. Ukrainian forces reported Russian attacks near Bilohorivka, though some Russian claims of advancement remain unconfirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made progress in Chasiv Yar, reaching Lermontova Street in the northern part of the town as of December 27. The fighting continued today with attacks in Chasiv Yar itself and nearby settlements of Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked Toretsk and nearby Shcherbynivka with no confirmed territorial gains. They launched a mechanized assault toward Leonidivka, southwest of Toretsk, using approximately company-sized forces.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk reportedly capturing Novoyeliyzavetivka to the southwest. They conducted multiple attacks in areas surrounding Pokrovsk, including near Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Zelene, Shevchenko, Vovkove, Kotlyne, Solone, Pishchane, Novovasylivka, Novoolenivka, and Ukrainka. Russian forces reportedly deployed multiple tank and motorized rifle units in the Pishchane-Kotlyne and Novoolenivka-Novoyeliyzavetivka areas, though claims of additional territorial gains have not been confirmed.
Kurakhove
Russian forces advanced into the western outskirts of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant (TPP) near Kurakhove, likely advancing from positions in Stari Terny. While Russian sources claim to have encircled Ukrainian forces at the TPP, Ukrainian forces may still hold positions in the central areas of the facility. The Russian advance along the western shore of the Kurakhivske Reservoir could complicate Ukrainian supply lines and potential withdrawals from the power plant.
Russian forces continued attacks near Kurakhove with reports indicating they have partially or fully captured Shevchenko northwest of the city. Russian forces are reportedly using modified civilian vehicles to transport troops and supplies to the front lines. Fighting continued in Kurakhove itself and nearby settlements of Petropavlivka, Ukrainka, Shevchenko, Slovyanka, and Dachne.
Andriivka
Russian forces attacked near Vuhledar using armored vehicles near Kostiantynopolske but made no confirmed advances. Multiple Russian motorized rifle units attempted to advance on Ulakly from both Shevchenko and Zelenivka. Fighting continued north and northwest of Vuhledar near Uspenivka, Kostiantynopolske, Yantarne, and Kostiantynopil.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces conducted operations near Velyka Novosilka on December 31 without confirmed advances. Attacks occurred in Velyka Novosilka and nearby settlements of Rozlyv, Novodarivka, Neskuchne, Vremivka, and Novosilka, with Russian special forces drone units reportedly active in the area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast near the settlements of Robotyne, Novoandriivka, and Orikhiv, but failed to gain ground. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counterattack near Orikhiv.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked along the Dnipro River and its delta islands but failed to make any territorial gains.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major air assault on Ukraine using various missiles and drones, including 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 1 Kinzhal missile, 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles, 6 Kh-69 cruise missiles, and 40 Shahed and decoy drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted several missiles and drones, but Russian strikes hit targets in Kyiv and Sumy oblasts, with the city of Shostka suffering damage to infrastructure and boiler rooms.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that throughout 2024, they shot down 1,300 Russian missiles, over 14,000 drones, 40 aircraft, and 6 helicopters, noting Russia’s increased use of ballistic missiles.
President Zelensky marked New Year’s Eve with a message of resilience, praising Ukrainians’ fight for freedom while expressing concerns about future military aid and possible pressure for concessions to Russia with Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency in 2025; in a significant achievement for 2024, Ukraine secured the release of 1,358 prisoners from Russian captivity through 11 exchanges, surpassing 2023’s numbers, with the most recent exchange freeing 189 people, including defenders of Azovstal, Mariupol, Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, and Snake Island, bringing the total to 3,956 captives returned since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.
In his New Year’s address, Zelensky expressed confidence in continued U.S. support while acknowledging Ukraine must actively work for peace, thanked the U.S. for substantial military aid including 39 rocket systems, 301 Howitzers, and over 300 million ammunition units, and voiced optimism about working with President-elect Trump to end Russian aggression; notably, the U.S. remains Ukraine’s largest supporter, having committed over $60 billion in military aid and $26 billion in financial assistance since 2022, compared to Germany’s $11.4 billion and the U.K.’s $10.1 billion.
In 2024, Ukrainian citizens and businesses contributed over 1 trillion hryvnias ($24 billion) in taxes, while the total state budget reached Hr 3.1 trillion ($74 billion), including international grants. To address an expected $35 billion budget deficit in 2025, President Zelensky signed a major tax reform bill in November. The new legislation increases military tax from 1.5% to 5%, expands war tax to small businesses, and raises bank profit taxes to 50%. While foreign partners are expected to cover $20 billion of the deficit, these tax reforms aim to help bridge the remaining $15 billion gap in domestic funding.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 1
Russian missile debris struck Kyiv Oblast, causing one woman to suffer a concussion when falling debris damaged her home’s roof and windows. In Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district, missile wreckage also fell on a house roof but caused no injuries or damage.
Russian strikes hit the town of Shostka in Sumy Oblast, damaging multiple facilities including 12 residential buildings, two schools, three boiler houses, a healthcare clinic, and a dormitory. While no deaths were reported, officials are still assessing the full extent of the damage.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Four Ukrainian children, aged 3 to 17, were rescued from Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast through the “Bring Kids Back UA” and “Save Ukraine” initiatives. This brings the total number of children returned to Kherson Oblast in 2024 to 246. According to Ukraine’s “Children of War” database, Russia has abducted at least 20,000 Ukrainian children since February 2022, though officials estimate the true number could be between 150,000-300,000. A Yale study revealed Russia’s systematic program of deporting Ukrainian children, reclassifying them as Russian-born, and placing them with Russian families across 21 regions.
Russia News
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his New Year’s Eve speech marking his 25th year in power. The speech, continuing a Soviet-era tradition watched by millions across Russia’s time zones, focused on national pride and future development rather than explicitly mentioning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. While praising Russian soldiers, Putin expressed confidence in Russia’s future, stating “we will only go forward.” The address comes as Russia makes battlefield advances in Ukraine and as US President-elect Trump has promised a swift ceasefire upon taking office. Putin’s speech marks a quarter century since he took over from Boris Yeltsin on New Year’s Eve 1999.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1250
790800 |
Tanks +4
9672 |
Artillery +4
21532 |
Arm. Veh. +13
20043 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli +1
330 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
In his New Year’s address, Putin declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland,” aiming to honor current troops, WWII’s 80th anniversary, and other veterans. This declaration builds on previous initiatives like the Defenders of Fatherland State Fund and the “Time of Heroes” program, which places veterans in key government and business positions. The Kremlin is expanding military-patriotic education and veteran support programs, despite their growing costs, likely to maintain regime stability and prevent dissatisfaction among the increasing veteran population.
Starting January 1, 2025, Russia will stop giving enlistment bonuses to prisoners who volunteer to fight in Ukraine, according to a decree signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. This follows President Putin’s November 2024 decision to limit combat injury payments to only those deemed “heavily wounded.” These changes suggest Russia is struggling with the growing financial costs of its war in Ukraine, where monetary incentives have been key to military recruitment since Spring 2022.
Russia’s military training program is falling short, with recruits receiving only 14-16 days of training instead of the recommended 45 days according to a Russian military blogger, and while Defense Minister Belousov’s inspection showcased comprehensive training programs for Black Sea Fleet naval infantry, including tactical fire, medical, and drone operations, this conflicts with earlier reports of rushed, inadequate training throughout the Russian military; the lack of a standardized training program, combined with urgent needs for frontline reinforcements in eastern Ukraine, has led to poorly trained infantry units with damaged equipment and insufficient leadership, as Defense Minister Andrei Belousov has not formalized training requirements, leaving the duration and quality of training to vary by individual unit commanders, and according to military bloggers, most recruits receive far less preparation than what was displayed during the official inspection.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com