Summary of the Day:
Russian forces continue their offensive in eastern Ukraine, making gradual tactical gains in specific sectors but struggling to achieve operationally significant objectives. Ukrainian forces are conducting an effective defense in depth, inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops while slowly ceding ground. Despite facing operational challenges, Ukrainian forces are preventing rapid Russian advances. Recent Russian advances have been observed south of Siversk and east and southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.
Russia has committed a significant portion of its operational reserves to offensives in Donetsk and northern Kharkiv oblasts, prioritizing these areas over maintaining theater-wide strategic reserves. This strategy indicates a focus on short-term gains rather than long-term planning for the entire campaign in Ukraine. However, Russian forces lack the manpower and resources to sustain intensified offensive efforts indefinitely, with their current operations likely to culminate in the coming months.
Meanwhile, President Putin is using the “Time of Heroes” veteran support program to militarize regional and local governments, promoting a pro-war ideology throughout Russian society. This move appears to be part of a broader strategy to solidify ultranationalist sentiment within the Russian state apparatus.
Concurrently, Russian authorities are cracking down on corruption within the Ministry of Defense, arresting officials on charges of mismanagement and embezzlement. This effort may be aimed at addressing widespread corruption from the previous administration and demonstrating the Kremlin’s commitment to accountability.
In a separate development, strikes reportedly targeted an ammunition depot near Russia’s Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia Province, Syria. While the responsible party remains unconfirmed, this incident follows similar reported strikes in the area in recent months.
Picture of the Day:
The kitchen of a commercial building appears exposed after a wall collapsed due to bombings in Myrnohrad, Ukraine. Russian invading forces, approximately two kilometers from Myrnohrad, are advancing and pushing Ukrainian defenses toward the city. (Pierre Crom/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
An ammunition depot near Russia’s Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia Province, Syria, was reportedly struck overnight on October 2-3. Footage shows a fire and explosions near the airbase. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claimed unknown drone strikes destroyed the depot near Jableh City, coinciding with the presence of Israeli warplanes. Both Syrian and Russian air defenses allegedly attempted to intercept incoming missiles for about 40 minutes. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger stated that Iranian and Syrian forces used the depot and that the strikes didn’t directly target Hmeimim Airbase. While the responsible party remains unconfirmed, this incident follows similar reported strikes in the area on July 9 and September 24.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused both outgoing NATO Secretary General Josep Borrell and new Secretary General Mark Rutte of Russophobia on October 2. Rutte took over the NATO leadership role on October 1.
Moldovan authorities have uncovered a Russian-funded scheme to influence upcoming elections, orchestrated by pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor. Over $15 million has been distributed to more than 130,000 Moldovans, with voters instructed to oppose closer ties with the West and spread anti-EU disinformation. This operation is part of broader Kremlin efforts to undermine Moldova’s pro-Western leadership before the EU referendum and presidential elections on October 20. Moldova’s police chief describes it as unprecedented voter bribery combined with hybrid warfare. The country has been supportive of Ukraine and has taken steps to counter Russian influence, including expelling diplomats suspected of espionage.
The Path to Peace
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reaffirmed that Russia is not willing to engage in meaningful negotiations with Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces continue their offensive in eastern Ukraine, making slow tactical gains but struggling to achieve significant operational progress. Ukrainian troops are employing effective defensive strategies, causing substantial Russian losses while gradually ceding ground. Russian forces captured Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast on October 1, improving their position to advance towards the H-15 highway and reduce the Ukrainian salient in the area. However, their efforts to seize Chasiv Yar and push Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil River have stalled or progressed very slowly. Russia continues to prioritize advancing towards Pokrovsk, but its ability to leverage any potential capture for wider maneuvers remains uncertain.
The Russian military prepared extensively for its summer 2024 offensive, aiming to create a new operational force of up to 70,000 troops for northern Kharkiv Oblast and establish reserves for the push to Pokrovsk. However, months of intense fighting have likely depleted these reserves considerably. Russian forces have reportedly committed a large portion of their operational reserves to offensives in Donetsk and northern Kharkiv oblasts, prioritizing specific frontline sectors over maintaining overall strategic reserves.
The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has significantly disrupted the development of Russia’s operational reserves and their original plan to focus on the Kharkiv and Pokrovsk-Toretsk areas. In August 2024, U.S. officials estimated that Russia would need to deploy 15-20 brigades (at least 50,000 troops) from Ukraine or its reserves to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast. Russia’s offensive capabilities will likely remain constrained by manpower shortages unless President Putin decides to implement more aggressive force-generation policies, such as another partial mobilization, despite the risk of public backlash. The current Russian offensive is expected to culminate in the coming weeks or months, though Russia may continue lower-intensity operations to maintain pressure on Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces continued their offensive in Kursk Oblast with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources reported ongoing clashes near several settlements, including Olgovka, Kremyanoye, Obukhovka, Nikolayevo-Darino, Novosyolovka, and Plekhovo. Russian military units, including airborne and naval infantry forces, are reportedly engaged in the area.
Ukrainian forces continued attacks in Glushkovsky Raion without confirmed advances. Russian sources reported Ukrainian attempts to breach positions near Novy Put, with ongoing fighting near Veseloye. Russian airborne units are reportedly active in the area.
Russian media claimed Ukraine attempted to attack the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant alleging the use of HIMARS rockets and drones. Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s counter-disinformation center, denied these accusations. Explosions were reported near Kurchatov, about 40 kilometers from Ukrainian-held positions in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian officials and intelligence sources refuted the claims, stating there was no attack on the nuclear plant. The situation remains unverified, with Russia previously accusing Ukraine of similar attacks, which Kyiv has consistently denied.
A Ukrainian news outlet reported that Russian conscripts are fighting in Kursk Oblast. A Russian lawyer claimed that appeals from relatives of conscripts suggest over 1,000 may be deployed there. The BBC noted that many captured conscripts in Kursk Oblast were from two specific motorized rifle regiments, aligning with previous observations about Russian forces in the area.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have downed 113 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory overnight, mostly in Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, and Bryansk Oblasts, with 25 specifically in Voronezh. Ukraine’s Security Service, in collaboration with Special Operations Forces, reportedly conducted a drone strike on Borisoglebsk airfield in Voronezh Oblast, targeting Russian warehouses, aircraft hangars, and fuel storage facilities. The attack aims to reduce Russia’s ability to use fighter jets equipped with guided aerial bombs (KABs) against Ukrainian cities. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources shared footage of fires near the airfield. This operation is part of Ukraine’s ongoing strategy to disrupt Russian military operations by targeting facilities in Voronezh Oblast.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks north and northeast of Kharkiv City near Hlyboke, Tykhe, and Vovchansk, without confirmed gains.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed frontline changes. Attacks were reported near several settlements, including Pershotravneve, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kurylivka, Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka, Vyshneve, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Torske, and Dronivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast have severely disrupted water supply for about 260,000 residents in northern areas, including Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka. Governor Vadym Filashkin reported that two Water of Donbas facilities were irreparably damaged on September 28, leading to an indefinite water shortage. Authorities are working on alternative water sources, including temporary supply from a local river reservoir. The region continues to face daily attacks, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Russian forces recently captured the front-line town of Vuhledar, marking their latest offensive success in the area.
Siversk
Russian forces made progress south of Siversk advancing north of Vesele. They also attacked near Spirne. Reports suggest Russian troops may have captured Verkhnokamyanske, though this is unconfirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacking near Chasiv Yar targeting Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Andriivka. No confirmed gains were reported. A Russian source claimed their forces are defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in eastern Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked near Toretsk targeting Dyliivka to the northeast, Nelipivka to the south, and moving towards Shcherbynivka and Sukha Balka to the southwest. Despite these efforts, no confirmed territorial gains were reported.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, pushing into areas south of Novotoretske and the eastern outskirts of Lysivka. They also progressed west and southwest of Novohrodivka. Russian sources claim gains near Tsukuryne and along the E-50 highway north of Selydove, though these are unconfirmed. Attacks continued in multiple settlements east and southeast of Pokrovsk, including Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Myrolyubivka, and Hirnyk.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked west of Donetsk City with no confirmed frontline changes. They reportedly entered central Maksymilyanivka and Ostrivske but faced resistance from Ukrainian drones. Assaults continued near Heorhiivka and Kurakhove. These claims of Russian advances remain unconfirmed.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced southwest of Donetsk City moving along the Pavlivka-Bohoiavlenka road near Vuhledar. They reportedly captured a mine ventilation shaft north of Vuhledar, though unconfirmed. Attacks continued near Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, Bohoiavlenka, Vuhledar, Trudove, and Maksymivka.
President Zelensky defended the Ukrainian military’s withdrawal from Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, calling it “absolutely correct” to save soldiers’ lives. Russian forces have captured the town after a prolonged assault. Zelensky emphasized the need for more weapons from allies to counter Russian aggression. The situation remains challenging, with Russian forces also targeting Pokrovsk and Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast, and potentially preparing for operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
No fighting was reported in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area by either Russian or Ukrainian sources.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked near Novodanylivka and Kamyanske in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed frontline changes. A claim of Russian advances northwest of Verbove remains unverified.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in the Kherson area with no confirmed changes to the front line. A Russian blogger claimed special forces cleared islands near Krynky and Kozachi Laheri, east of Kherson City, but this remains unverified.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine, using 105 Shahed drones from various locations. Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down 78 drones across multiple regions, including Kyiv, where 15 were downed. Some drones missed targets due to electronic warfare. In Kharkiv, Russian forces used glide bombs, damaging a residential building.
Ukraine’s population is projected to decline significantly, reaching 28.9 million by 2041 and 25.2 million by 2051, according to the Institute of Demography and Social Research. The ongoing war, coupled with deaths and displaced refugees, has accelerated this trend. As of January 2022, before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s population was 42 million. Factors contributing to the decline include depopulation, labor migration, and occupied territories. The war’s impact on demographics is severe, with reports suggesting high military casualties. Civilian deaths are also substantial, with the UN estimating at least 10,000 fatalities as of November 2023. Ukraine’s population has been decreasing since its independence in 1991, when it stood at 52 million.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 5 INJURIES: 53
Russia launched attacks across several Ukrainian regions overnight. In Kharkiv, a guided bomb struck a residential building, injuring 12 people including a child. Attacks on other Kharkiv Oblast settlements injured eight more. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Nikopol was hit by drones and artillery, wounding two elderly men. Donetsk Oblast saw 11 people injured across multiple towns and villages. In Kherson Oblast, 24 settlements were targeted, resulting in two deaths and eight injuries.
Russian forces attacked 14 communities in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast injuring eight people. The region, bordering Russia, has seen increased strikes since Ukraine’s recent cross-border action into Kursk Oblast. The Sumy community was hit by drones, while other settlements including Mykolaiv, Khotin, and Bilopillia faced various attacks. Russia used mortars, artillery, rocket launchers, guided bombs, and drones in these assaults.
Russian forces attacked the Koriukivka district in Chernihiv Oblast striking a car carrying liquefied gas. The attack killed three people, including a 6-year-old child, and injured four others, with two children in serious condition. The gas containers exploded, spreading fire to nearby buildings.
Reuters camera operator Ivan Lubysh-Kirdey, severely injured in a Russian strike on Kramatorsk’s Safir Hotel on Aug. 24, has regained consciousness and begun speaking. His wife reports he recognizes people and can answer simple questions, though speaking remains difficult due to injuries.
Russia attacked a residential building with a guided aerial bomb in the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine. (Oleh Syniehubov/Telegram)
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
The Ukrainian Legion, a volunteer military unit for Ukrainian men living in Poland, opened its first foreign recruitment center in Lublin, Poland. The center, located at the Ukrainian consulate, offers medical examinations and eligibility certifications. Volunteers undergo a 35-day training course in Poland, with potential for additional NATO-based training. The initiative, part of a Ukraine-Poland security agreement, has received mixed reports on interest levels. Polish Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz stated that the number of applicants has been “too small,” despite Poland having trained about 20,000 Ukrainian military personnel overall.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made a surprise visit to Kyiv meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky. They discussed Ukraine’s path to NATO membership, which Rutte called “irreversible.” Zelensky emphasized the need for more weapons, including long-range ones, to strengthen Ukraine’s position. The leaders also talked about joint interception of Russian drones and missiles, though Western partners have been hesitant about direct involvement. Zelensky mentioned Ukraine’s goal of becoming NATO’s 33rd member, part of the country’s victory plan presented to U.S. President Biden in September.
Ukraine has received a Patriot air defense system from Romania, as confirmed by Romanian Defense Ministry spokesperson Constantin Spinu. President Zelensky expressed gratitude for this support, emphasizing its importance in countering Russian drone and missile attacks.
Switzerland plans to allocate 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.7 billion) for Ukraine’s reconstruction over the next four years, according to Swiss Ambassador Felix Baumann. The funds will support self-government, demining, humanitarian aid, and recovery programs involving Swiss private sector. Ukrainian Minister Oleksii Kuleba highlighted housing for internally displaced people as a priority. Switzerland has supported Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, providing aid and joining EU sanctions despite its traditional neutrality. The country also hosted the 2022 Ukraine Recovery Conference and a recent peace summit.
Czechia’s initiative to supply Ukraine with 155 mm artillery shells is progressing, with over one-third of the promised 500,000 rounds already delivered. Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Zvarych reported negotiations to expand the initiative and dismissed recent claims of malfunctioning ammunition. The Czech-led effort, involving 18 countries, aims to address Ukraine’s shell shortages. Zvarych expressed hope for continued support in 2025 and potential investment in Ukraine’s domestic ammunition production. Czech Defense Minister Jana Cernochova has also announced plans for a new initiative to supply artillery ammunition to Ukraine in 2025.
Life in Ukrainian-Occupied Russia
Ukrainian forces report that Russia continues to strike settlements in Kursk Oblast, even in areas without Ukrainian troop presence. Vadym Mysnyk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Operational Tactical Group Siversk, stated that local civilians are suffering and forced to seek shelter. Ukrainian military is providing humanitarian aid and trying to restore basic services in areas they control.
Russia News
President Vladimir Putin is using the “Time of Heroes” veteran support program to militarize Russian government and society. On October 2, Putin appointed former DNR “Sparta” Battalion Commander Artem Zhoga as Presidential Representative to the Ural Federal Okrug. Putin also confirmed nine other “Time of Heroes” participants to various government positions, including roles in youth organizations, regional ministries, and state-owned companies. This move appears to be part of a broader strategy to place pro-war, ultranationalist individuals loyal to Putin in prominent positions throughout Russia. The appointments aim to reintegrate war veterans into society and promote Putin’s vision for future Russian elites. During their meeting, Zhoga emphasized his primary identity as a soldier, suggesting Putin expects unwavering loyalty from these appointees.
Russian authorities are intensifying their crackdown on corruption within the Ministry of Defense (MoD). On October 2, the Russian Investigative Committee placed former MoD Forestry Department Deputy Head Alexander Sluchak under house arrest and detained “Translesstroy” LLC General Director Ozman Avdolyan for embezzling 20 million rubles. Additionally, two suspects were detained for theft at the Tyumen Higher Military Engineering Command School, and Deputy Head of the MoD’s Military Construction company, Dmitry Sergel, was placed on an interstate wanted list for embezzling over 35 million rubles. These arrests, which have increased under Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s leadership, aim to address widespread corruption from the previous administration and demonstrate the Kremlin’s commitment to fighting corruption to satisfy public demand for accountability.
Russian authorities are pushing for new laws that would require state corporations to pay 50% of the value of their nationalized assets to the federal budget starting in 2025. This move, reported by state media RBK, is part of the government’s ongoing efforts to nationalize Russian enterprises, especially in the defense sector. The change aims to increase direct financial benefits for the federal government from these nationalizations.
Russian gas giant Gazprom reported a record net loss of $6.1 billion in 2023, making it Russia’s most unprofitable company last year, according to Forbes Russia. The company’s revenue fell by 30% due to worsening relations with Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, Gazprom’s net cash flow increased by 5% to $242 billion, and it earned a net profit of $11.5 billion in the first half of 2024. The losses were largely attributed to asset devaluation and exchange rate fluctuations. Other unprofitable Russian companies included the Amur Gas Chemical Complex, Ozon, Rostec, and VK. A report commissioned by Gazprom suggests it may take at least 10 years to recover from losses incurred since the invasion of Ukraine.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1230
657940 |
Tanks +15
8908 |
Artillery +59
18965 |
Arm. VEH +31
17627 |
Aircraft
368 |
Heli
328 |
Ships
28 |
Russia’s Allies
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico expressed intent to restore “economic and standard relations” with Russia after the Ukraine war ends. Despite his Ukraine-skeptic stance, Fico has largely adhered to EU consensus, allowing commercial military sales to Kyiv. He hopes Ukraine will remain a transit country for Russian exports to Europe, though Ukraine’s gas transit contract with Gazprom expires in 2024. Slovakia continues to buy Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline. A recent conflict arose between Slovakia, Hungary, and Ukraine over the transit of sanctioned Lukoil oil through Ukrainian territory.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com