Summary of the day: Ukrainian drone operations persist deep inside Russian territory, stressing the Russian air defense systems as they reallocate resources to shield vital locations. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces are disrupting Russian air defenses both in occupied Ukraine and near Russian borders, preparing the ground for the expected deployment of F-16 fighter jets later in 2024. Meanwhile, internal developments in Russia saw the release of former Major General Ivan Popov from pre-detention, though he remains under house arrest, and approximately 650,000 people have emigrated since the conflict escalated without returning. Additionally, Russian forces made tactical movements northwest of Avdiivka as the Russian government seeks to refine its mobilization processes amid escalating regional tensions, exemplified by the detention of a Russian citizen in Armenia at Russia’s behest.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Armenian police detained a Russian citizen, “Ivan Ch,” at Yerevan International Airport upon his arrival from Kazakhstan. This action was likely taken at the request of Russian authorities, who had placed him on their wanted list in 2023 for desertion. This incident reflects ongoing cooperation between Armenian and Russian law enforcement amid strained political and security relations between the two countries. The detention is part of a broader pattern where Russia seeks to maintain influence over Armenia by involving Armenian authorities in detaining Russian citizens on various charges.
On the international front, the Russian and Chinese navies completed joint maritime patrols in the South China Sea, conducting various naval exercises including convoy operations and supply replenishments, covering a distance of 4,800 nautical miles over 15 days.
On July 15, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spotlighted a controversial historical site to inflame tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, furthering efforts to destabilize the region.
Russian Ambassador to Cyprus Murat Zyazikov opened a new branch of the International Russophile Movement to promote Russian narratives and counter “Russophobia” among Russians abroad.
Belarusian forces conducted joint military exercises named “Attacking Falcon” with China’s PLA in Minsk and “Peak Brotherhood-2024” with Kazakhstan at the Koktal Training Ground in Kazakhstan.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reiterated that Belarus does not plan to join the war in Ukraine and continued to voice support for Kremlin strategies aimed at diminishing Western support for Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian air defenses in occupied Ukraine and border areas, aiming to prepare for the expected arrival of F-16 jets. According to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, recent strikes have disabled 20 S-300 missile launchers and 15 radar stations. These attacks include the use of cluster munitions against positions in Donetsk Oblast. Additionally, a Russian S-300 commander was reportedly killed in a strike on July 12, though the exact location is unconfirmed.
Ukrainian forces are intensifying attacks on Russian air defenses to pave the way for the deployment of F-16 jets, which are expected to arrive soon. This strategy aims to weaken Russian capabilities significantly, enabling safer operations for Ukraine’s forthcoming F-16 aircraft. Despite the imminent arrival of these jets, challenges such as limited supplies and the need for extensive training are likely to restrict the full-scale use of these aircraft in 2024. Ukrainian military efforts are part of a broader plan to strengthen their air defense system using advanced fighter jets.
On July 15, the last Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol boat departed occupied Crimea and arrived in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, on July 16, according to Ukrainian Naval Spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk. He also noted that Russian non-combat supply ships remain based in occupied Crimea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued their offensive north and northeast of Kharkiv City, specifically targeting the areas near Hlyboke and Vovchansk, but no significant changes to the front lines were reported. Claims of a Ukrainian counterattack near Hlyboke were also noted.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without making significant advances. Russian Aerospace Forces targeted Ukrainian bridges west of Kupyansk, aiming to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack using ATV-style buggies in the Svatove area. The region around Makiivka remains contested, with ongoing Russian attacks near several villages across this front.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued their offensive operations in the Siversk area without achieving any significant changes to the front lines. The operations focused on multiple locations around Siversk, including northeast near Bilohorivka, east near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast near Spirne, and south near Pereizne and Rozdolivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar without altering the front lines. Assaults were carried out near Chasiv Yar, northeast towards Hryhorivka, and southeast towards Klishchiivka. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian assault near Opytne, south of Bakhmut.
Toretsk
Russian forces reportedly made minor advances near Toretsk but no substantial changes to the front line were confirmed. Claims of Russian progression along Petra Velykoho street in eastern Druzhba and on its northern outskirts remain unverified. Continued Russian offensives occurred east and south of Toretsk, specifically near Pivnichne and Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian forces have recently made some territorial gains northwest of Avdiivka and continue to push offensive operations in the region. Geolocated footage indicates advances in multiple locations northwest of Avdiivka, including Novoselivka Persha and the fields east of Lozuvatske. However, some claims of further advances by Russian forces in this area lack confirmation. Offensive operations extended to several surrounding areas north, northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. Amid these activities, it is noted that certain brigade-level elements of the Russian forces are experiencing a decline in combat capabilities, prompting strategic decisions about focusing efforts in either Avdiivka or Toretsk.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued their offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City without achieving any confirmed territorial gains. Claims from Russian milbloggers suggest significant control over northern Krasnohorivka, with about 90% of the settlement reportedly seized. Operations persisted near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued their offensive operations near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, specifically south of Velyka Novosilka near Makarivka. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov praised the 5th Tank Brigade and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade for allegedly seizing Urozhaine, although there is no confirmed evidence that the settlement has been fully captured.
Zaporizhia Line
Ongoing fighting was reported in western Zaporizhia Oblast around Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and Novoandriivka. Despite the continued clashes, there have been no confirmed changes to the frontline positions.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting continued on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky, with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Ukraine News
Russian forces carried out limited drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, with some drones reportedly entering Belarusian airspace. The Ukrainian Air Force successfully downed two Russian Shahed-136/131 drones, and debris from these drones impacted residential and rural areas in Ukraine. Russian sources also claimed strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in the Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, and Chernihiv oblasts, including a missile attack on a supposed Ukrainian drone facility at Hydroport Airport in Odesa Oblast.
Overnight, two Russian Shahed drones were reported lost in Belarusian airspace by the Ukrainian Air Force. An independent Belarusian monitoring group observed one drone traveling 60 kilometers through Belarusian airspace for about 50 minutes before it re-entered Ukrainian airspace. Additionally, a similar incident occurred with a Russian Shahed drone entering Belarusian airspace on the night of July 12 to 13.
Russian General Valery Gerasimov visited the Eastern Grouping of Forces in Ukraine, inspecting unmanned ground vehicles used in combat near Urozhaine, Donetsk-Zaporizhia border.
On July 15, Mikhail Danilenko from Kingisepp Machine-Building Plant announced plans to equip the “Vizir” naval drone with six to eight light missiles and disclosed a May 2024 contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense to build 199 patrol boats.
Life In Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine are intensifying efforts to issue Russian passports to young people through the “We are Citizens of Russia” program, which recently distributed passports in occupied Rovenky, Luhansk Oblast. This initiative, supported by the Kremlin-linked “Movement of the First,” aims to foster patriotism among youth aged 14 and older.
Ukrainian officials report that Russian-controlled schools in occupied areas are introducing military-focused education. In Mariupol, School No. 28 will mainly offer military cadet classes starting the 2024-2025 school year, while new curricula in Zaporizhia teach combat skills. A new military club in Melitopol promotes similar militaristic values among the youth.
Russia News
Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russia are challenging Russian air defense capabilities, pushing the military to protect key areas. Analyst Ruslan Pukhov criticizes Russia’s current air defense strategy as ineffective against Ukrainian tactics and suggests decentralizing defenses to better shield critical facilities. Despite efforts, Russian defenses remain stretched thin, with some regions advised to develop their own anti-drone measures due to insufficient national air defense coverage.
The Russian 235th Garrison Military Court released former Major General Ivan Popov from pre-detention and placed him under house arrest until October 11. Popov was arrested on May 17 on fraud charges, but analysts suggest the real reason for his arrest might be linked to his criticisms of military issues revealed in a leaked audio. The decision for house arrest, speculated to be influenced by political maneuvering within the Russian government, coincided with the absence of Army General Valery Gerasimov, who allegedly views Popov as a personal adversary. Meanwhile, General Gerasimov was reported visiting a command post, emphasizing ongoing military operations in eastern Ukraine.
An investigation by The Bell, a Russian opposition media outlet, revealed that around 650,000 Russians have left the country since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began and have not returned. Many relocated to countries with visa-free agreements with Russia, such as Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Georgia, with others moving to Israel and the U.S. The actual figure may exceed 700,000, as some countries have not provided data. This migration represents the largest Russian emigration in the last two decades, potentially causing significant economic impacts due to a skilled labor shortage and brain drain.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian government is enhancing its conscription and mobilization systems by implementing an “information exchange system” to share conscript details between the Ministry of Defense and the Federal Security Service. This system aims to prevent potential draftees from leaving Russia, especially ahead of the Fall 2024 conscription cycle. Additionally, integration efforts between Russian military and militias from Donetsk and Luhansk are facing significant challenges, with new conscription laws potentially affecting many veterans from these regions.
Social media highlighted recruitment incentives by the Russian military, including substantial enlistment bonuses varying from 705,000 rubles ($8,000) to 1.7 million rubles ($19,200), depending on the region and terms of service.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
On July 15, Russian official Vladimir Tarabrin accused Ukraine of potentially using chemical weapons, attributing this to Ukrainian battlefield setbacks. This claim aligns with previous Russian assertions aimed at discrediting Ukraine, despite the US Department of State confirming Russian violations of the Chemical Weapons Convention on May 1.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed at a UN Security Council meeting that Ukraine mistreats ethnic Russians, using this baseless assertion to justify the invasion of Ukraine.
Russian milbloggers are highlighting internal Ukrainian criticisms to sow division within Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org