Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military warehouse near Chaltyr in Rostov Oblast overnight, combining drones and Neptune missiles to target a facility storing reconnaissance drones that Russia uses to guide attacks on Ukraine. Russian forces meanwhile advanced in several areas, gaining ground near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. A BBC Russian Service and Medizona investigation using open-source data has confirmed at least 88,055 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine since February 2022.
The international community strengthened its response to Russia’s aggression, with the US, UK, and Japan announcing new sanctions. The US Treasury targeted Russian state oil companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, along with 183 vessels and numerous oil industry entities. The EU transferred $3.07 billion to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets, the first payment in a broader G7 initiative that will provide Ukraine with $50 billion total.
Amid these developments, the Kremlin stated readiness for talks with US President-elect Trump without preconditions, while maintaining its stance on Ukraine. Putin’s core demands remain unchanged from June 2024: the removal of President Zelensky, Ukraine’s demilitarization, and the surrender of substantial eastern and southern Ukrainian territory – effectively calling for Ukraine’s complete capitulation.
Picture of the Day:
The aftermath of the alleged drone strike against the town of Gatchina in Leningrad Oblast. (Astra Telegram channel)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The Russian-controlled region of Transnistria in Moldova is facing a severe energy crisis after Russia halted gas supplies through Ukraine and refused to use alternative routes. The region’s 360,000 residents are experiencing gas, electricity, and water cuts, with gas reserves expected to last only 24 days from January 8. The crisis particularly affects border villages like Varnița, which relies on Transnistria’s energy infrastructure despite being under Moldovan control. Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean views this as a security crisis rather than an energy one, suggesting Russia aims to influence upcoming parliamentary elections. The situation has forced residents to resort to wood heating and generators, while energy bills have doubled in unoccupied Moldova. The crisis highlights Russia’s continued influence in the region through energy manipulation, with 2,000 Russian troops illegally stationed in Transnistria. This development adds to regional tensions and represents another instance of Russia using energy as a geopolitical tool to maintain influence in former Soviet territories.
Serbia’s military chief Milan Mojsilovic announced that Belgrade is canceling several military contracts with Russia due to Moscow’s inability to fulfill them under current sanctions. Despite historically being a Russian ally, Serbia has been shifting westward, providing $800 million in military aid to Ukraine through third countries and purchasing French Rafale fighter jets to replace its Soviet-era MiGs. The country has also turned to China for military equipment, recently acquiring the FK-3 anti-aircraft missile system as an alternative to Russian systems. This strategic realignment reflects Serbia’s complex position as both a traditional Russian ally and an EU membership candidate, potentially signaling a broader shift in regional alliances that could impact Russia’s influence in the Balkans.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has issued a warning advising non-European airlines to avoid western Russia’s airspace following the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that killed 38 people last month. The plane, traveling from Baku to Grozny, was reportedly downed by Russian air defenses targeting Ukrainian drones. While Russian airspace is already closed to EU airlines, this new alert extends to third-country operators. The incident has strained relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev criticizing Russia’s response and investigation. This development highlights the growing risks to civilian aviation in the region due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, potentially affecting international air travel safety and regional stability.
Norway has announced plans to resume building bomb shelters, a practice discontinued since 1998, citing concerns over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Justice Minister Emilie Mehl announced that new buildings over 1,000 square meters must include shelters, which will be designed to protect against chemical, radioactive, and conventional weapons. Some existing structures like garages and subway tunnels will be adapted for protection. This decision reflects growing security concerns in Europe due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, where civilians regularly seek shelter from Russian bombardments.
Belarus announced that at least 13,000 troops will join Russia in the “Zapad-2025” military exercise, though specific troop allocations and dates are not yet announced. The previous scheduled exercise in 2023 was canceled, breaking from the traditional four-year cycle last held in 2021. This joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus could potentially increase regional tensions, particularly given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and concerns about military cooperation between these nations.
Belarusian internet providers temporarily blocked YouTube, Telegram, TikTok, and other social media platforms, claiming it was “scheduled work.” Opposition outlet Nasha Niva suggests this may be a test run for broader internet restrictions during the upcoming January 26 presidential election, raising concerns about potential suppression of information and democratic freedoms in Belarus.
Belarus has violated its international commitments by failing to invite OSCE election observers to its January 26 presidential election, breaking the terms of the 1990 Copenhagen Document. This refusal to allow international monitoring raises serious concerns about the election’s transparency and legitimacy, potentially further isolating Belarus from the international community.
Russia and Belarus are further integrating their border policies, with the Russian Foreign Ministry announcing that starting January 11, foreign visitors can travel between both countries with a visa from either nation. This deepening of the Union State relationship between Russia and Belarus signals growing alignment between the two countries, which could increase regional tensions given their shared stance against Western interests.
The Path to Peace
U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated that Russia and Ukraine are not ready for peace negotiations. President Zelensky suggested potential talks involving U.S. President-elect Trump before engaging with Putin.
The Kremlin has expressed readiness for unconditional talks with US President-elect Trump, with Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov welcoming Trump’s openness to dialogue following Trump’s January 9 announcement that Putin wants to meet with him to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. While Putin previously stated he would meet Trump “at any time” and Peskov noted that only “mutual desire and political will” are needed for talks, no concrete meeting plans will be made until after Trump’s January 20 inauguration. Putin’s core demands from June 2024 remain unchanged: the removal of President Zelensky, Ukraine’s demilitarization, and the surrender of substantial eastern and southern Ukrainian territory, effectively calling for Ukraine’s complete capitulation, with Russia currently occupying 20% of Ukrainian territory. Russian officials have rejected reported peace proposals from Trump’s team, and Trump’s push for a quick resolution, including his nomination of Keith Kellogg as Ukraine peace envoy who aims to end the war within 100 days, has raised concerns about pressure on Ukraine to make unfavorable concessions.
Keith Kellogg, Trump administration’s Ukraine peace envoy, has postponed his planned visit to Ukraine due to restrictions under the U.S. Logan Act, which limits private citizens’ unauthorized negotiations with foreign governments. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi confirmed the visit will be rescheduled after Trump’s January 20 inauguration. While Trump has promised to quickly end the war, President Zelensky remains focused on achieving a diplomatic resolution by 2025 and looks forward to working with the new administration. Kellogg’s European tour will include stops in Rome and Paris as part of broader peace efforts.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans to visit Ukraine to discuss potential international peacekeeping forces. France and Britain are considering deploying troops to monitor a possible ceasefire along Ukraine’s contact line. This comes as European nations discuss regional security ahead of Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration. President Zelensky has indicated Ukraine would only accept foreign peacekeepers with a clear NATO membership timeline. While French President Macron previously proposed Western troop deployment, these discussions are happening between individual countries rather than through NATO structures.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian 3rd Army Corps command post in Svitlodarsk. This is part of a broader series of Ukrainian strikes on Russian military facilities in occupied Donetsk Oblast since January 3.
Ukrainian forces destroyed several Russian air defense systems and Starlink terminals in southern Ukraine
Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that Russian helicopter activity over the Black Sea has decreased. While poor weather may be a factor, Pletenchuk suggested Ukrainian naval drone operations could be causing Russia to limit its helicopter flights in the region.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made small advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, particularly in the areas of southern Makhnovka, southern Russkoye Porechnoye, and northern Kositsa. While Russian sources claimed to have encircled Ukrainian positions near Guyevo and Kurylivka, and to have captured Pogrebki, these claims remain unconfirmed. Reports of Russian forces entering Sudzha or encircling Malaya Loknya were widely refuted. Combat continues throughout the region, with Russian forces attacking near Sudzha and multiple surrounding settlements including Novaya Sorochina, Staraya Sorochina, Nikolayevka, Viktorovka, Nikolskiy, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Zamostye, and Makhnovka. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Berdin and Kruglenkoye.
Ukrainian forces launched extensive drone attacks across multiple Russian regions, with Russia claiming to have intercepted 40 drones in total, including 16 in the Rostov region where forces successfully targeted a Russian military warehouse near Chaltyr using a combination of drones and Neptune missiles to strike a facility storing reconnaissance drones that Russia uses to guide attacks on Ukraine. In Rostov, one strike caused a fire at the Plastfactor floor coverings factory in the village of Crimea, while damage was also reported to private property in Voronezh, though no casualties were reported in either the Voronezh or Bryansk regions where drones were also intercepted.
In the Leningrad region’s village of Hatchina, a large fire broke out in the industrial zone near several facilities, including Ingria Tech and a fish processing plant, with reports of a possible acetone spill. These widespread attacks, which are part of ongoing drone exchanges between Russia and Ukraine throughout the war, extended across several other regions including Kursk, Kuban, Belgorod oblasts, and over the Azov Sea, with Russian officials reporting interceptions in these areas as well.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kharkiv City around Starytsya and Vovchansk. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances near Vovchansk, these gains remain unconfirmed. Chechen special forces drone units are reportedly operating north of Kharkiv City in the areas of Alisivka and Strilecha.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces advanced northwest of Orlyanka (east of Kupyansk), with additional reported progress near Dvorichna and Zapadne northeast of Kupyansk. According to intelligence sources, Russian forces are conducting infantry-only assaults across the Oskil River using inflatable boats, as the river is too deep for armored vehicle crossings. Fighting continues north and east of Kupyansk, including near Zapadne, Petropavlivka, and Kucherivka.
Borova
Russian forces continued attacks in the Borova area with Russian sources claiming advances near Bohuslavka, Nadiya, and Serhiivka, though these gains remain unconfirmed. Combat operations occurred across multiple settlements including Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyi Hai, Borivska Andriivka, Lozova, Pershotravneve, Kopanky, Makiivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Hrekivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced to central Kolisnykivka, while a Ukrainian counterattack at Zahryzove was reportedly repelled.
Lyman
Russian forces conducted limited attacks northeast of Lyman near Ivanivka and Terny, and east of Lyman near Zarichne, though without confirmed advances. A Ukrainian battalion commander reported that Russian forces are using multi-directional infantry attacks without armored support due to previous vehicle losses.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk but made no advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made advances near Chasiv Yar with confirmed movement east of Stupochky. Fighting occurred in Chasiv Yar itself and nearby settlements of Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Predtechyne. While Russian sources claim to have reached the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant, this remains unconfirmed. Ukrainian electronic warfare is reportedly hampering Russian drone reconnaissance in the area, while combat conditions have led to friendly fire incidents. Russian forces are also conducting operations in Mykolaivka, west of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in Toretsk with confirmed movement along multiple streets in the northern and northwestern parts of the city, including Murmanska, Korolenka, Oleksandra Dovzhenka, and Anharska streets. Fighting occurred near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, and Sukha Balka. Russian forces also reportedly advanced east of Niu York toward Sukha Balka and along Berehova Street in southern Petrivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced southwest of Pokrovsk with confirmed movement near Solone. Russia conducted a mechanized assault near Yelyzavetivka, where Ukrainian forces destroyed several Russian vehicles. Russian forces reportedly seized most of Baranivka, advanced toward Tarasivka, captured part of the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezheva highway, and reached Kotlyne’s outskirts. Fighting continues across multiple settlements including Novooleksandrivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Myrnohrad, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Zelene, Zvirove, Vovkove, Udachne, Novovasylivka, Novoandriivka, Novoyeliyzavetivka, and Yasenove. Russian forces have intensified shelling and glide bomb strikes in the area, while increasing their use of armored vehicles for infantry transport and support.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces advanced northwest of Kurakhove with confirmed movement near Slovyanka and are reportedly attacking Yantarne’s outskirts, while Ukrainian forces repelled 29 Russian attacks near several settlements including Sribne, Andriivka, Petropavlivka, Kurakhove, and Dachne, though Russian units successfully repelled a Ukrainian counterattack near Andriivka. Fighting continues across multiple additional settlements including Zelenivka, Ulakly, Kostiantynopil, and Rozlyv, with Ukrainian forces continuing to defend the Kurakhove thermal power plant amid intense Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Dachne and the power plant itself, where Ukrainian troops report inflicting significant damage on Russian forces. While the Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have captured Kurakhove on January 6, Ukraine maintains positions in the western outskirts and at the power plant despite Russian forces damaging the Kurakhove Reservoir dam and ongoing street fighting in the town, though they describe the situation as difficult – if Kurakhove falls, it would be Russia’s first significant capture of 2025, following their taking of Avdiivka and Vuhledar in 2024.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued attacks near Velyka Novosilka, engaging in combat near Vremivka and Neskuchne. While Russian sources claim advances on Velyka Novosilka’s northern outskirts and the capture of Neskuchne, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in limited combat in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no territorial gains by either side. Russian drone units targeted Ukrainian positions near Novodanylivka, north of Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted unsuccessful attacks near Kozatskyi and Zabych islands, east and southwest of Kherson City.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major overnight drone attack against Ukraine sending 72 Shahed and decoy drones from multiple Russian regions. Ukrainian forces shot down 33 drones across eleven oblasts, while 34 were disabled by electronic warfare. Russian drones struck the border town of Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast, and falling debris from a downed drone damaged a building in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district.
Ukrainian President Zelensky addressed supporters at Germany’s Ramstein air base on January 9, where allies pledged $2 billion in additional military aid. The speech came just days before Donald Trump’s scheduled return to office on January 20. Zelensky emphasized the critical need for drones and air defense systems, particularly following a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia that killed 13 people and injured 112. He highlighted Ukraine’s drone production capabilities and announced that 27 countries have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine. The president also mentioned Ukrainian operations in the Kursk region, where forces have maintained a buffer zone on Russian territory for five months, forcing Russia to redirect approximately 60,000 troops from the Ukrainian front.
Ukrainian lawmakers have initiated a resolution to dismiss Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko, led by MP Inna Sovsun of the Verkhovna Rada Energy Committee. The motion cites concerns about corruption in the energy sector, inadequate infrastructure protection, and questionable conduct. A key issue involves the disclosure of information about the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant’s expansion, which drew concern from both the European Commission and U.S. Embassy. Tensions escalated after Halushchenko made controversial remarks during a parliamentary session, particularly regarding European officials’ concerns. Halushchenko has held the position since April 2021.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 3 INJURIES: 19
Russian forces attacked the town of Siversk in Donetsk Oblast, killing two people.
Russian forces attacked 41 settlements in Kherson Oblast, including the city of Kherson, killing one person and injuring 16 others.
Russian forces launched five drone attacks in northern Chernihiv Oblast, injuring one civilian.
Russian forces attacked the village of Losivka in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring a 30-year-old man.
Russian forces shelled the city of Mykolaiv, injuring a 49-year-old man who was hospitalized and is in stable condition.
Ukraine’s Allies
The US, UK, and Japan announced coordinated sanctions against Russia, with the US Treasury and UK targeting Russian state oil companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which produce over 1 million barrels of oil daily generating about $23 billion annually, along with 183 vessels in Russia’s “shadow fleet” used for sanctions evasion and numerous oil industry entities. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized this targets Russia’s key revenue source for its war in Ukraine, with the sanctions coinciding with disruptions to Russian oil production from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries in Tuapse, Ilyich, and Novoshakhtinsk, which have reduced or suspended operations.
Japan imposed asset freezes on 33 organizations and 12 individuals, while targeting 29 Russian entities including three banks and 11 individuals, plus 31 companies from China, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Thailand, Turkey, and Georgia, as well as 53 organizations from Russia and China over North Korean support for Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. President Zelensky praised the move as a significant blow to Russia’s military-industrial complex, particularly in limiting access to microelectronics for missiles and drones, while Japan also removed sanctions from eight individuals, including the late Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mother, while maintaining its broader support for Ukraine without providing lethal aid.
The European Union transferred $3.07 billion (three billion euros) to Ukraine, marking the first payment from frozen Russian assets, with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stating the funds will support priority spending as part of the G7’s ERA Loans initiative, which will ultimately provide Ukraine with $50 billion from seized Russian assets, including $20 billion each from the EU and U.S. Treasury. While Western nations have frozen $300 billion in Russian assets, they can currently only access the roughly $3.2 billion in annual income these assets generate, and although President Zelensky has called for full confiscation of the frozen funds to support Ukraine’s recovery, the G7 plans to keep the assets frozen even after the war ends.
Poland and Ukraine have agreed to begin exhuming the first victims of the Volyn tragedy, a World War II-era conflict that resulted in thousands of Polish and Ukrainian deaths. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced this development following recent meetings between Ukrainian National Unity Minister Oleksii Chernyshov and Polish Culture Minister Anna Wroblewska. While Poland views the events as genocide by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), Ukraine advocates for mutual acknowledgment of responsibility. This decision marks an important step in improving Polish-Ukrainian relations during Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has rejected a proposed 3-billion-euro military aid package for Ukraine. The package, put forward by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, would have included three Iris-T air defense batteries, 10 howitzers, and artillery ammunition. Scholz maintained that the existing 4-billion-euro allocation for 2025, combined with G7 loan funds, is sufficient. Despite this decision, Germany announced it would provide nearly 50 guided missiles for Ukraine’s Iris-T air defense system. The proposal’s supporters argued it was necessary due to Ukraine’s worsening combat situation and uncertainty about future U.S. support.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russia has forcibly conscripted 300 Ukrainians from occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions between October and December 2024, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR). The occupying authorities are compelling Ukrainians up to age 60 to register for military service, threatening job loss for those who refuse. In Luhansk, Russian forces are offering 2.5 million rubles ($24,000) as signing bonuses. This forced recruitment violates international humanitarian law. Meanwhile, Russia’s own military recruitment has declined by 30% in late 2024, dropping to 700 new soldiers daily despite increased financial incentives, including sign-on bonuses of 400,000 rubles and annual salaries around 900,000 rubles.
Russia News
Russian political elites are reportedly growing disappointed with President Putin’s handling of the Ukraine war, according to a January 9 report by independent Russian media outlet Meduza. Sources close to Putin’s administration expressed frustration over the ongoing conflict, which they had hoped would end in 2024, and its impact on Russia’s economy. This dissatisfaction has intensified following recent setbacks, including Ukraine’s termination of Russian gas transit on January 1 and demographic concerns that could significantly reduce Russia’s population by century’s end. Despite internal pressure, Putin appears committed to continuing the conflict, though some security officials criticize his reluctance to fully mobilize the country for war.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
A BBC Russian Service and Medizona investigation has revealed that at least 88,055 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since February 2022, including 6,083 elite troops from the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) and other specialized units. The loss of these highly trained personnel, who required significant investment in training, has forced elite units to conduct standard infantry operations rather than their specialized roles.
Troops +1570
806500 |
Tanks +10
9751 |
Artillery +28
21817 |
Arm. Veh. +18
20271 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities conducted raids at Chelyabinsk airport and commerce centers in Krasnoyarsk during the holiday period, issuing military summons to illegal migrants and naturalized citizens. This follows President Putin’s December 2024 decree requiring illegal migrants to either legalize their status, leave Russia, or join the military. The enforcement suggests Russia is prioritizing military recruitment over addressing labor shortages and economic concerns.
A Russian military blogger reported that Russia may lack advanced naval drones because the Ministry of Defense is unwilling to fund their development.
Russia’s Allies
A controversy has erupted after Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of Bulgaria’s pro-Russian Revival party, claimed that Southern Bessarabia in Ukraine’s Odesa Oblast should be returned to Bulgaria. He also suggested unifying with Macedonia, comparing his proposals to alleged statements by Donald Trump about annexing Canada. The Ukrainian Embassy in Bulgaria condemned these statements as a distortion of history that violates international law, urging official condemnation of such rhetoric from an EU member state. While Bulgaria has supported Ukraine during the Russian invasion, these territorial claims could potentially destabilize regional peace and further complicate international relations during the ongoing conflict.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com