Summary of the day: Russian forces have maintained their offensive operations in the Toretsk direction since June 18, likely aiming to reduce a Ukrainian salient in the area. However, they have committed limited forces, suggesting a focus on gradual advances rather than rapid gains. This approach aligns with Putin’s strategy of continuous, slow advances to win a war of attrition against Ukraine. Russian forces recently made marginal advances near Siversk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City. Meanwhile, Ukraine signed long-term security agreements with the EU, Lithuania, and Estonia, while Putin discussed plans to introduce over 40 new ships to the Russian Navy in 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
A leading Russian milblogger highlighted Russia’s ongoing information campaigns to undermine the Moldovan government and President Maia Sandu, aiming to stir unrest in Moldova. The milblogger also criticized recent protests in Georgia against Russian-style repression bills, including the controversial foreign agents law.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported that Russian forces struck residential buildings in Selydove with a FAB-500 glide bomb.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
A Russian sabotage group briefly crossed the border northwest of Kharkiv City on June 26, engaging in small arms battles before being repelled by Ukrainian border guards. This action is likely part of Russian efforts to create operational ambiguity along the border area in northeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky previously noted that Russian forces were concentrating troops near the border, potentially preparing for offensive actions. These activities aim to fix Ukrainian forces along a wider front in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Fighting continued north and northeast of Kharkiv City, with no confirmed frontline changes. Clashes occurred near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk. A Russian milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces regained some positions within Vovchansk. A Ukrainian commander reported that Russian forces are consistently digging trenches for defense, but Ukrainian artillery and drones are hindering these efforts.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna, with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian milbloggers claimed advances near Petropavlivka and Synkivka, attributing success near Synkivka to effective electronic warfare. Attacks occurred in multiple locations southeast of Kupyansk, west and southwest of Svatove, and west of Kreminna. Reports suggest intensified Russian assaults in the Lyman direction, while one milblogger claimed a possible Ukrainian advance east of Terny.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces advanced near Siversk, with confirmed progress in the eastern outskirts of Bilohorivka. Russian milbloggers claimed additional advances in and around Rozdolivka, Vyimka, and Spirne, but these remain unconfirmed. The Ukrainian General Staff reported ongoing Russian offensive operations in these areas northeast and southeast of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, with no confirmed frontline changes. Ukrainian spokesperson Voloshyn reported that Ukrainian forces have mostly pushed Russian troops from the Kanal Microraion, though some isolated groups may remain. Russian forces are using thermobaric artillery strikes on Chasiv Yar. Fighting continued near Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. A Russian milblogger claimed a Ukrainian counterattack near Kalynivka, but the outcome is unspecified. Elements of the “Hispaniola” Volunteer Brigade are reportedly operating in the area.
Toretsk
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Toretsk, but no confirmed changes to the frontline were reported. Russian milbloggers claimed advances near Niu York, Zalizne, and near the Mayorske railway station, although these claims have not been verified.
Russian forces have maintained offensive operations in the Toretsk direction since June 18, aiming to reduce a Ukrainian salient in the area. They’ve conducted mostly infantry-heavy assaults on small settlements south and east of Toretsk, without significant mechanized assaults or notable gains. This activity in a previously quiet sector suggests Russian efforts to address vulnerabilities created by their advances near Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka. However, Russian forces have committed limited resources, indicating a preference for gradual advances through grinding assaults rather than rapid, operationally significant gains.
Russian offensive operations in the Toretsk direction suggest that the military command doesn’t consider a large-scale operation to advance towards Kostyantynivka from multiple directions feasible. Despite earlier gains northwest of Avdiivka, Russian forces have not succeeded in seizing Chasiv Yar or making significant advances there. The current focus on operations west and southwest of Avdiivka, rather than northward, indicates a possible shift in strategy. Russian forces may now be aiming to advance westward towards Pokrovsk instead of pursuing a wider operation to seize Kostyantynivka from the south and east. Alternatively, these operations in the Toretsk direction might be intended to pressure Ukrainian forces along a wider front in Donetsk Oblast, facilitating gains in the Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka directions.
Russian forces have committed limited combat power to offensive operations in the Toretsk direction. These units, mostly consisting of DNR and Russian Territorial Troops, are generally less effective than conventional Russian units. The current force allocation is likely insufficient to capture Toretsk, which is similar in size to Chasiv Yar. Any significant Russian reinforcement in this area would indicate a more serious intent beyond diversionary tactics. However, even if Russian forces were to capture Toretsk, further advances would be challenging due to open terrain and water features. Rapid Russian gains in this direction are currently considered unlikely.
Russian offensive operations in the Toretsk direction align with Putin’s strategy of gradual, continuous advances to win a war of attrition against Ukraine. This approach suggests Russian forces may pursue significant objectives over months or even years, accepting slow progress towards Toretsk and Kostyantynivka. The Russian military likely hopes this pressure will hinder Ukraine’s ability to gather resources for counteroffensives. To counter this strategy, Western allies must provide Ukraine with necessary equipment and weapons at the scale and regularity required for significant liberation operations, challenging Putin’s belief in a slow victory.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka, with unconfirmed reports of movement south of Yasnobrodivka and towards Karlivka. Ukrainian counterattacks reportedly halted Russian progress near the Karlivske Reservoir. Claims of Russian advances in other areas like Vozdvyzhenka have not been verified. Russian offensive operations continued around Avdiivka, including northwest, west, and southwest of the city.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced southwest of Donetsk City, with specific movements reported south of Kostyantynivka by the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Claims of advancements in Krasnohorivka remain unverified. Continued Russian offensive operations were noted west and southwest of Donetsk City, including areas like Heorhiivka and Paraskoviivka. Additionally, Ukrainian counterattacks near Volodymyrivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar were reported as unsuccessful.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Positional engagements continued along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border. Russian milbloggers reported unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattacks near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne and surrounding areas without any confirmed frontline changes. Reports indicate Ukrainian forces are gathering reserves near Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka for potential counteroffensives. The “Atesh” partisan group claims that the Russian 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade is engaged in heavy infantry assaults near Myrne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Krynky and the Antonivsky roadway bridge in east Kherson Oblast, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Reports from Russian milbloggers indicate that Russian troops are holding positions on islands in the Dnipro River, although there are complaints about an insufficient number of boats to support operations in the region.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine. According to Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, the attacks included 23 Shahed drones, four Kalibr cruise missiles, a Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, and a Kh-59/69 cruise missile. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted all launched missiles and drones. The targets, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, were Ukrainian airfields.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine signed long-term security agreements with the EU, Lithuania, and Estonia. The EU pledged 50 billion euros in support from 2024-2028, long-term defense cooperation, and rapid consultations in case of future aggression. Estonia committed to allocating 0.25% of its GDP for military support to Ukraine from 2024-2027, along with various military equipment. Lithuania also pledged 0.25% of its GDP annually for Ukraine’s military support. These agreements aim to provide sustained assistance and security cooperation for Ukraine.
Western media reported ongoing negotiations between the US, Israel, and Ukraine regarding the potential transfer of up to eight retiring Israeli Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. The discussions involve sending the systems first to the US, then to Ukraine. However, sources caution that the transfer may not occur or may involve fewer than eight systems. Israel has delayed retiring these Patriots due to concerns about potential escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Senior officials from all three countries are reportedly involved in the negotiations.
Russia News
The Kremlin appears to be indirectly establishing a state ideology emphasizing “traditional” values and higher birth rates, despite constitutional prohibitions. Russian officials are preparing a bill to ban the “child-free” ideology, claiming it’s “extremist” for discouraging childbirth. The Justice Ministry is also working to officially define “traditional values” in the Russian language normative dictionary. These efforts, along with previous designations of broad “social movements” as extremist, suggest an attempt to bypass the constitutional ban on state ideology. The Kremlin is likely trying to shape societal values while avoiding explicit ideological statements that could provoke ethnic, religious, or national tensions.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials continue to portray migrants as a threat to society while simultaneously using migrant communities to address military personnel shortages. Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin claimed migrant crime is increasing across Russia, with 38,936 crimes committed by migrants in 2023. He advocated for stricter migration policies and employer accountability. Bastrykin also revealed that since October 2023, 30,000 recently naturalized migrants have been registered for military service, with 10,000 sent to Ukraine for support roles. The legal mechanism for recruiting these migrants is unclear but may involve offering military contracts to avoid deportation or imprisonment.
Russian officials and milbloggers are increasingly targeting migrants with xenophobic rhetoric while simultaneously exploiting them for military service. Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin’s speech about migrant crime sparked praise from milbloggers who called for stricter migration policies and harsher penalties. Some suggested confiscating passports from naturalized migrants who refuse to fight in Ukraine. Recent terrorist attacks have intensified fears about extremism, leading to more xenophobic sentiment. This rhetoric, combined with exploitative force generation efforts, may be contributing to the radicalization of migrants. Russian insider sources suggest that these policies are alienating minority and Muslim-majority communities, potentially making them vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups.
Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the future of the Russian Navy and shipbuilding on June 26, highlighting plans to introduce over 40 new ships and vessels in 2024. He emphasized the need for advanced threat detection systems on Russian ships, including air defense against drones, and surveillance systems for naval drone defense. Putin also stressed the importance of enhancing protection for naval bases, developing naval reconnaissance aviation, and expanding access to electronic and electronic warfare systems. This focus follows Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian naval assets in Crimea, which have reportedly damaged at least seven Russian ships by March 2024.
Former Russian Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin highlighted ongoing bureaucratic issues in the Russian military during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum. He criticized policies requiring military personnel to spend half of their salaries on uniforms and equipment, and the lack of paid leave from the frontline. Despite Stepashin’s appeals to address these issues, State Duma Deputy Irina Yarovaya dismissed his concerns, praising the positive changes in the military under President Putin since the 1990s.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that the Russian government will grant “combat veteran” status to civilians supporting Russia’s war efforts in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. This status, which already applies in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, will be extended to civilian military personnel, doctors, military correspondents, and occupation administration employees. The designation offers additional social benefits such as tax breaks, sanatorium vouchers, and land purchase rights. Mishustin urged rapid legislative action, and TASS reported that draft legislation was submitted to the Russian State Duma later that day.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage showing their servicemen deploying heavy rotary-wing drones to deliver 82mm mines for mining Ukrainian positions in south Donetsk. These drones, modeled after Ukraine’s “Baba Yaga” drones, are also capable of delivering ammunition, medicine, and food to frontline positions.
On June 26, Roscosmos announced preparations to launch the “Gonets-Avtonomny,” a new portable satellite terminal for personal communications, with testing scheduled for Summer 2024.
Russia’s Allies
Recent reports suggesting North Korea may send engineering forces to occupied Ukraine lack concrete evidence. The claim originated from an unnamed South Korean official and was amplified by Western media, citing a Pentagon spokesperson’s response to a hypothetical scenario. However, the Pentagon did not confirm these reports, and there has been no official North Korean statement about sending forces to Ukraine. The most recent North Korean statement only expressed support for Russia without mentioning troop deployments. Currently, there is no substantiated evidence to support the claim of North Korean forces being sent to Ukraine.
Neither the US, Russia, nor North Korea have confirmed reports about North Korea sending engineering forces to occupied Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated the Kremlin is unfamiliar with these reports. US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said he had no specific comment and hadn’t seen the report. Claims of US officials confirming this information are inaccurate.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Senior Russian officials, such as Deputy Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, have reiterated warnings that continued Western military assistance to Ukraine could worsen relations and potentially lead to future conflicts with Russia. These statements are part of Russia’s strategic effort to influence Western decision-making in its favor.
Russian ultranationalist milbloggers are actively promoting propaganda that supports Russia’s territorial claims over uncontrolled areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts, indicating broad ultranationalist backing for expanded Russian territorial ambitions in Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org