Summary of the day: Russian forces made confirmed advances near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, western Zaporizhia Oblast, and the Dnipro River Delta. Ukrainian sources noted that Russian troops, despite being limited, understaffed, and incohesive, are focusing efforts in the Sumy direction to draw and fix Ukrainian forces at the border. Meanwhile, Kremlin officials expressed condolences for the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yury Sadovenko and Presidential Advisor Alexandra Levitskaya, replacing Sadovenko with Oleg Savelyev.
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Picture of the Day
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Kharkiv Oblast on May 19-20, 2024. (Governor Oleh Syniehubov/Telegram)
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Poland signed a €300 million ($326 million) contract with the European Investment Bank to develop its part of the pan-European air defense, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced. Poland aims to join the European Sky Shield Initiative, which includes 21 countries, to create an Iron Dome-style air defense system across Europe. Tusk will soon present the project alongside other European leaders. The EIB loan will fund satellite and reconnaissance systems for the project. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz first proposed this initiative in August 2022 to enhance European air defense amid increasing Russian attacks on Ukraine. The system will utilize IRIS-T, Patriot, and Arrow 3 systems.
Polish authorities arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring linked to sabotage plots, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told TVN24. The suspects, including Polish, Ukrainian, and Belarusian citizens, were involved in acts of sabotage such as beatings, arson, and attempted arson in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and possibly Sweden. Earlier this year, a joint Ukrainian-Polish operation detained a Polish citizen who offered to help Russia assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Other suspects have been arrested in Germany, Austria, and Estonia for spying for Russia. The investigation is ongoing.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces, including Chechen units, are concentrating limited and understaffed troops in the Sumy direction to draw Ukrainian forces to the border area. Estimates suggest around 9,000-10,000 Russian personnel, comprising various motorized rifle, tank, infantry, and airborne battalions. This strategy aims to stretch Ukrainian defenses along a broader front.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed the US policy against allowing Ukraine to use American weapons to strike targets in Russia, emphasizing that these weapons should only be used within Ukraine. This stance limits Ukraine’s ability to target Russian forces and equipment assembling near the border, impacting its defense capabilities. Meanwhile, the UK and other European countries are considering lifting similar restrictions on their provided weapons to Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the suburbs of occupied Luhansk City, targeting Katerynivka (formerly Yuvileyne) with Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG missiles. Luhansk Oblast Governor Artem Lysohor stated the attack hit a Russian military base set up near civilian buildings, although Russian state media claimed it targeted residential areas. The area previously housed the Luhansk Academy of Internal Affairs until 2014.
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Russian Tsyklon Karakurt-class missile ship in Sevastopol Bay on May 19 with three US-provided ATACMS missiles. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command and Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk mentioned a possible strike on the Tsyklon, the only remaining cruise missile carrier in occupied Crimea, but there is no official confirmation or visual evidence. Russian sources claimed the ship was hit and sank, but these reports are unverified.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyptsi, northeast of Kharkiv City, with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian milbloggers claimed advances of 200 to 400 meters and the seizure of the dacha area north of Lyptsi, as well as progress near Zelene. However, these claims lack visual confirmation. The Ukrainian General Staff reported ongoing Russian offensives in these areas
Vovchansk
Russian forces made confirmed advances in Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, continuing their offensive operations. Geolocated footage from May 18 showed Russian troops advancing in central Vovchansk, north of the Vovcha River. Russian milbloggers reported advances of 150 to 600 meters in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff noted ongoing Russian offensives near Vovchansk and Starytsya, with positional battles near Starytsya and Buhruvatka. Russian troops in the Vovchansk direction face challenges with ammunition supplies due to open terrain vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. Despite these advances, Ukrainian forces control about 60% of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, according to Deputy Governor Roman Semenukha. He reported continuous efforts by Russian forces to push Ukrainian troops out of the town. The Defense Ministry confirmed that Russian units entered northern Vovchansk on May 15, but Ukraine has prevented further advances. The town is heavily damaged, with ongoing Russian shelling and civilian casualties. Over 10,500 civilians have been evacuated from Kharkiv Oblast due to the fighting. Russia’s offensive in the region began on May 10 but has been halted by Ukraine’s defenses.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Kreminna, continuing ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have seized Bilohorivka, but Russian milbloggers disputed this. There were also reports of Russian advances northeast of Berestove and west of Dibrova, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Russian forces continued assaults near Synkivka, Berestove, Ivanivka, Stelmakhivka, and Novoyehorivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued ground assaults northeast of Bakhmut in the Siversk direction, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed advances north of Vesele, but this is unverified. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, Rozdolivka, Ivano-Darivka, and Vyimka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar amid ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage from May 17-19 shows Russian advances in the southern part of Kanal Microraion (eastern Chasiv Yar) and southern Klishchiivka. Claims of fully seizing Klishchiivka remain unverified. Russian forces also advanced in Novyi Microraion and near Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, Ivanivske, and Andriivka. A Russian milblogger highlighted a critical lack of drone operators and anti-drone defenses.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka amid ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage from May 18 shows advances in western Netaylove. Russian sources claimed further progress northeast of Novokalynove and northwest of Semenivka towards the H-20 highway. Fighting continued near Novooleksandrivka, Lozuvatske, Arkhanhelske, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novopokrovske, Novoselivka Persha, Sieverne, Umanske, and Yasnobrodivka. Russian forces are reportedly active near Ocheretyne.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced west of Donetsk City amid ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage shows advances southeast of Krasnohorivka. Russian sources claimed progress east, southeast, and south of Paraskoviivka, seizing over half of the settlement. Fighting continued near Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued ground assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, focusing on the south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
Zaporizhia Line
A Russian occupation official denied claims that Russian forces advanced nearly two kilometers towards Hulyaipole. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation senator Dmitry Rogozin stated he could not confirm the advance reported by official Vladmir Rogov. A Russian milblogger also doubted Rogov’s claim.
Russian forces have likely seized northern Robotyne after recent advances. Geolocated footage from May 18 and May 20 shows Russian soldiers in northeastern Robotyne and Ukrainian strikes on Russian forces in northwestern Robotyne. A Russian milblogger reported advances up to 3.45 kilometers wide and 1.16 kilometers deep southeast of Robotyne, with secured positions along the Robotyne-Verbove road. Fighting continues near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove. Russian forces use more artillery, while Ukrainian forces use more FPV drones in the Zaporizhia direction.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces recently advanced to the southern part of Velykyi Potemkin Island in the Dnipro River Delta, as shown in geolocated footage from May 19. A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian forces attempted to establish a foothold on Nestryha Island on May 18 and 19.
Russian milbloggers confirmed that elements of the 76th VDV Division have moved from Zaporizhia Oblast to the Krynky area in Kherson Oblast. They claimed that these forces pushed Ukrainian troops out of Krynky and seized the settlement, although full control over Krynky has not been reestablished. Fighting continues near Krynky, but Russian attacks in the Dnipro (Kherson) direction have decreased in intensity.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 11
- Russian troops attacked the front-line village of Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, killing one man. Several houses were damaged in the attack.
- Russian forces attacked Kherson, killing one man and injuring another. An enterprise in the Dniprovskyi district was hit, and a 72-year-old man was hospitalized with mine-blast injuries. Over the past day, eight people were injured in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian troops attacked the village of Bilozerka in Kherson Oblast, injuring a 74-year-old man and a 64-year-old woman. Both suffered blast injuries and were hospitalized.
Ukraine News
Russian forces continued drone and missile strikes against Ukraine from May 19 to 20. Ukrainian officials reported that 29 Shahed-136/131 drones were launched overnight from Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Kursk Oblast, and all were shot down over Odesa, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Lviv oblasts. The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor General’s Office stated that an Iskander missile struck the House of Culture in Izyum, though Russian sources claimed it targeted a military site. Ukrainian forces also downed a Russian cruise missile over Kryvyi Rih Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko emphasized that Russia’s war will end with negotiations, highlighting Ukraine’s peace formula, which includes Russia’s withdrawal and prosecution of war criminals. The upcoming peace summit in Switzerland will focus on these principles for lasting peace. Over 30 countries support Ukraine, with several signing bilateral agreements, and more agreements are being prepared. Lytvynenko also called for modern weapons and a NATO membership invitation for Ukraine. Negotiations with Russia are contingent on a full military withdrawal and the removal of President Putin from power.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall plans to open facilities in Ukraine and neighboring states to produce air defense systems and support military vehicles. Ukraine is advancing its defense industrial base (DIB) and technology. The drone company Vyriy Drone has started producing self-guided FPV drones with thermal imaging. The Army of Drones project developed the Ukropchik quadcopter and the Ratel-S ground-based strike robot. Ukrainian forces are effectively using domestically-produced drones against Russian armored vehicles. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has approved 18 new weapon samples since May 9, aiming for a total of 80 by the end of May 2024.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Western partners for delaying military assistance to Ukraine, noting that decisions are often a year late. Despite the U.S. passing a $61 billion aid package in April, delays have caused significant setbacks, including the loss of Avdiivka and increased vulnerability to Russian air strikes. Zelensky stressed the need for more air defense and F-16 fighter jets to counter Russian attacks. He also urged Western allies to help intercept Russian missiles and support targeting Russian military equipment. Zelensky expressed frustration over Western reluctance to allow Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with supplied weapons, a stance the U.S. maintains.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin opened the 22nd Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, highlighting the urgency of Western support due to a new Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. The summit, attended by defense ministers and officials from nearly 50 countries, focuses on coordinating military aid for Ukraine. Austin described the fight in Kharkiv as “hard and dangerous,” underscoring the summit’s importance. He noted that while the U.S. has already delivered key aid, more is on the way, with air defense being a top priority. Austin stressed that the coming weeks and months are crucial and urged increased support from Western allies.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas revealed that some NATO countries have sent personnel to train Ukrainian soldiers on the ground, despite risks. She emphasized that NATO should not fear escalation from such deployments. Kallas’ comments follow ongoing discussions among Estonian officials about potentially sending their own personnel for non-combat support in Ukraine. Kallas said sending troops to Ukraine for training won’t lead to war with Russia.
Spain announced a new aid package for Ukraine. This includes Leopard tanks, artillery shells, Patriot missiles, anti-drone systems, and surveillance equipment, to be delivered by late June. A long-term bilateral security agreement is also planned. The total amount of aid remains undisclosed, but Spain has already provided over €190 million, including 10 Leopard tanks and eight patrol boats.
The Netherlands will send more YPR-765 armored vehicles to Ukraine, the Dutch Defense Ministry announced on May 20. Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren emphasized the importance of continuing support for Ukraine, noting the vehicles’ agility and safety features. The exact number of vehicles in this batch was not disclosed.
Austria will allocate €5 million ($5.4 million) for restoring Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, according to Der Standard on May 20. This funding will come from the Climate Action and Energy Ministry’s budget and be used for spare parts, generators, and repairs. The support follows intensified Russian missile and drone attacks that damaged key power plants, including the Trypillya plant. Austrian Climate Minister Leonore Gewessler emphasized the need for humanitarian support. Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Khymynets thanked Austria for its solidarity. Ukraine’s power generation capacity has significantly decreased and requires substantial funds for restoration. Austria also created a €500 million fund to support Ukrainian exports and reconstruction.
Ukraine’s Western partners are providing additional military support. Denmark announced a $815 million aid package, including air defense, artillery systems, anti-tank mines, and F-16 aircraft. Lithuania delivered artillery ammunition, drones, and anti-drone equipment, while Germany is providing six Amber-1800 radars. The UK has supplied 80 air defense missiles, mine clearing systems, drones, ammunition, and 20 Viking vehicles, with 100 missiles to be delivered by the end of May.
India will participate in key summits on global peace, security, and development, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said. India will join the G7 meeting in Italy and the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, though Modi’s own attendance is unconfirmed. India advocates for a diplomatic solution to Russia’s war in Ukraine while maintaining strong economic ties with Moscow, including buying Russian oil. Ukraine seeks India’s support for President Zelensky’s peace plan. The Global Peace Summit, with over 60 countries participating, will be held on June 15-16 in Switzerland. Modi emphasized India’s significant role in international affairs and commitment to representing the Global South.
Russia News
RIA Novosti reported that a Ukrainian drone attack damaged at least one unit of an oil refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban, Krasnodar Krai, overnight on May 18-19. The refinery has suspended operations as the extent of the damage is being assessed. This attack is part of a series of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russia’s oil industry.
Russian President Vladimir Putin fired Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yury Sadovenko, appointing Oleg Savelyev as his replacement. Sadovenko, who had been in his position since 2013, might face charges for violating anti-corruption laws. The move is seen as part of Putin’s efforts to remove allies of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and to bring in economic experts like Savelyev to improve Russia’s wartime economy.
President Putin dismissed Presidential Advisor Alexandra Levitskaya for unclear reasons. Levitskaya, appointed in 2013, previously served as Deputy Minister of Health and Social Development and the government’s First Deputy Chief of Staff. This dismissal follows recent changes in the presidential administration.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, told TASS that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a “legitimate military target.” Medvedev, Russia’s president from 2008 to 2012, has frequently used aggressive language to intimidate the West and Ukraine. In February, he threatened nuclear attacks if Russia lost control of occupied Ukrainian territories. Medvedev stated that leaders of hostile regimes are considered legitimate targets. Once seen as a liberal, Medvedev is now one of Russia’s most aggressive pro-war figures. Zelensky has reportedly survived several assassination attempts since the invasion began. Recently, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) uncovered a plot by Russian agents to assassinate Zelensky and other officials.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported that Russian and Kazakh authorities detained at least two more Russian deserters in Kazakhstan. One deserter was contacted by the Russian Investigative Committee, and another was detained by Kazakh officers following a Russian wanted order. The BBC reported that a Russian serviceman was detained for desertion in Astana on April 23.
Wives and mothers of Russian soldiers continue to protest poor treatment. Relatives of the 5th Combined Arms Army soldiers complained that about 90 wounded and ill personnel are being forced to continue fighting in Ukraine. A group in Novosibirsk plans a rally on June 1 to highlight the impact of mobilization on families.
Russia’s Allies
Kremlin officials extended condolences to Iran after the deaths of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. Russian President Vladimir Putin called Raisi a “true friend of Russia” and discussed strengthening relations with Iranian Interim President Mohammad Mokhber. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised the late officials for their role in Russo-Iranian cooperation. Russia also offered assistance in investigating the helicopter crash that caused their deaths.
Ukraine’s Kyiv Scientific Research Institute found over 290 foreign-made microelectronics in a North Korean missile used by Russia, indicating ongoing efforts to bypass international sanctions to produce weapons.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Astana, reaffirming their strategic partnership and friendship.
Union State Secretary Dmitry Mezentsev announced on May 19 that Russia and Belarus are implementing seven programs in space, microelectronics, electronics, and the automotive industry. They are also working on a “Biomembrane” medical program and improving professional education.
Belarus is strengthening its ties with Russian regions. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Magadan Oblast Governor Sergei Nosov to discuss boosting trade and economic relations, especially in non-ferrous metals development.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev intensified efforts to undermine Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy by falsely portraying him as an illegitimate president in a TASS interview. Medvedev’s comments, echoed by other Russian officials and ultranationalist bloggers, coincided with the date Zelensky’s term would have ended if Ukraine had held elections in March 2024. Despite these claims, Zelensky’s decision to postpone elections during the war is fully constitutional under Ukrainian law.
Russian actors are trying to discredit Ukraine’s new mobilization law, which aims to strengthen its defense against the Russian invasion. Russian ultranationalist bloggers claim the law leads to illegal activities by Ukrainian forces. Kherson occupation head Vladimir Saldo is spreading divisive rhetoric.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpo st.com