Summary of the day:
An Israeli airstrike in Tehran reportedly killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claiming it aimed to undermine Middle East peace efforts. In response to security challenges, Russia revised legislation restricting soldiers’ personal device use and increased financial incentives for military service. Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian military warehouse in Kursk, and Russian troops advanced in multiple eastern regions. Additionally, Russian border guards withdrew from Armenia’s main international airport.
Picture of the day:
Svitlana Mikhailichenko (L), and Tatyana Levytska (R), belonging to the demining unit of Police Department of Kharkiv, work demining a field nearby Chkalovske town in Kharkiv Oblast. (Narciso Contreras/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed Israel conducted an airstrike in Tehran, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, to undermine Middle East peace efforts. Russia condemned the assassination, noting it happened during a presidential inauguration in Tehran, highlighting the act’s regional impact. This accusation aligns with Russia’s deeper military ties with Iran and President Putin’s critical stance toward Israel since the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October 2023.
Poland’s Radio ZET has informed residents of the Lubuskie and Greater Poland regions that the recent increase in US military presence is a planned operation, not a cause for alarm. The US Army is transferring equipment from Mannheim, Germany, to Powidz, Poland, including 87 Abrams tanks, 150 Bradley fighting vehicles, and 18 self-propelled howitzers, with the operation expected to complete by September. This move is part of NATO’s strategy to strengthen its eastern flank following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, enhancing its military readiness across Eastern Europe. Additionally, a new base in Świętoszów, Poland, will support US troop rotations and serve as a training location for allied forces.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Central and Southern military districts have started the third stage of tactical nuclear exercises, involving units from these districts, including forces in Russian-occupied Ukraine. These drills, which began in May in response to alleged Western provocations, include training with Iskander-M tactical missile systems and preparing for electronic launches. Previous stages involved units from the Southern and Leningrad military districts, Aerospace Forces, and Navy. Despite frequent nuclear threats since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has not used its nuclear arsenal. Belarus, which hosts part of Russia’s tactical arsenal, participated in the second stage of the drills in June. This move is seen as a strategy to influence Western decision-making in Russia’s favor.
The Kremlin is actively trying to prevent further military aid to Ukraine by threatening countermeasures against Japan if it provides lethal assistance. This approach of issuing threats to NATO states and their allies is part of Russia’s strategy to deter support for Ukraine.
European leaders have expressed concern over Hungary’s decision to fast-track visas for Russian and Belarusian nationals, fearing espionage risks within the Schengen zone. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently expanded a residency scheme, previously limited to Ukrainians and Serbians, to include Russia and Belarus, sparking security worries. Manfred Weber of the European People’s Party highlighted potential “grave loopholes for espionage activities” due to this policy. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis also voiced significant security threats, calling for an EU-level response. Amid these tensions, an EU spokesperson reiterated that Russia poses a security threat and emphasized the need for vigilance in protecting the Schengen area.
Russian authorities have intensified their information campaigns against Moldova after two Moldovan civil servants were investigated for espionage. Moldovan authorities searched parliamentary offices and detained the head of the Parliamentary Legal Department, Ion Creanga, for allegedly providing information to Russia. In response, the Russian Embassy in Moldova suggested that Moldova might expel Russian diplomats linked to a treason case, while the Russian Foreign Ministry accused Moldova of aligning with Western countries. This is seen as an attempt by the Kremlin to undermine Moldova’s efforts to distance itself from Russian influence.
Russian border guards completed their withdrawal from Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan, Armenia, complying with an earlier request from Armenian authorities. Since 1992, Russian personnel had been stationed at the airport, but Armenia now asserts it can manage its own border control independently.
The Road To Peace
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized in an interview with French media that Russia’s participation is crucial for the success of a second peace summit scheduled for November, aimed at ending the ongoing war. While Kyiv plans to invite a Russian representative to discuss a peace plan based on Zelensky’s formula and international suggestions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin has stated that Moscow will not attend. Despite Russia’s absence at the first summit in Switzerland and their dismissal of Ukraine’s peace proposals as an “ultimatum,” Zelensky holds that a just peace involves the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and can be achieved diplomatically if Russia is willing. However, he firmly rejected any compromise on Ukrainian territory, aligning with the national constitution that mandates any territorial decisions must reflect the will of the Ukrainian people.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
On July 28, Ukrainian forces reportedly ambushed a Russian special forces unit in Chernihiv Oblast, resulting in the deaths of five Russian soldiers. The Russian unit, from the 322nd Spetsnaz Training Center, was engaged in reconnaissance operations at the time. This incident highlights an increase in Russian reconnaissance activity in the area, with tactics shifting towards mining Ukrainian logistics routes.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Skirmishes intensified around Kharkiv City without any significant changes to the frontline. Russian forces claimed minor advancements near Vovchansk and captured strategic positions north of Kharkiv, continuing their attacks in surrounding areas. Ukrainian forces reported new deployments of Russian airborne and motorized units to the region, indicating an escalation in military activity.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made tactical advances near Kupyansk and Svatove, along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage showed progress southeast of Synkivka and south of Novoyehorivka. Additionally, a Russian milblogger reported the capture of two Ukrainian positions near Makiivka. Continuous fighting was reported across various locations including near Synkivka, northwest of Kreminna, and in the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces engaged in offensive operations around Siversk, specifically east near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast near Vyimka and Ivano-Darivka, and south near Pereizne. Despite these efforts, no territorial advances were confirmed. Russian artillery and airborne units are actively involved in these operations.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made slight advances in eastern Chasiv Yar, crossing the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal north of Novyi Microraion. Additional assaults were conducted near Kalynivka, Ivanivske, and Andriivka. Russian airborne units are actively involved in the region’s operations.
Toretsk
Russian forces made significant advances in and around Toretsk, particularly within Zalizne, seizing most of the settlement. Further progress was reported up to a kilometer near Zalizne, Pivdenne, Druzhba, and Niu York. Russian military operations also include assaults in Toretsk and near Panteleymonivka, with the 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade active in Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian forces engaged in offensive operations around Avdiivka, although no changes to the frontline were confirmed. Russian troops reportedly advanced in multiple directions, including northwest towards Ivanivka and along key areas near Vesele, Serhiivka, and Yasnobrodivka. Additional assaults occurred near Vozdvyzhenka, Timofiivka, and other surrounding villages.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made slight advancements near Donetsk City, with marginal progress northeast of Heorhiivka and south of Kostyantynivka, as well as nearing the outskirts of Krasnohorivka. Continued assaults were also reported southwest of Donetsk City near Paraskoviivka. Artillery and motorized rifle brigades are actively involved in operations within Krasnohorivka.
Russian sources claim a Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drone may have downed a Mi-8 helicopter in Donetsk City, with footage showing the wreckage. This follows earlier instances where Ukrainian drones attempted aerial strikes, indicating enhanced Ukrainian drone capabilities.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces conducted ground assaults near Velyka Novosilka and surrounding areas in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border region, with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces made advances east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with additional reported movements northwest of Robotyne. Fighting was reported in several areas around Robotyne. A Russian milblogger also noted a Ukrainian counterattack near Novodanylivka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ongoing positional engagements occurred in east Kherson Oblast, including on islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
Russian forces conducted a substantial drone attack against Ukraine, deploying one Kh-59 cruise missile and 89 Shahed drones from multiple directions, which Ukrainian defenses successfully intercepted. This marked one of the largest such strikes since January 1, with about 36 drones being downed over Kyiv alone, causing debris damage to residential areas. Additionally, Russia deployed decoy “Gerbera” drones, crafted from plywood and foam to test and distract Ukrainian air defenses during this assault. Concurrently, at least five Shahed drones crossed into Belarusian airspace, representing the largest intrusion of this kind to date. In response, Belarus scrambled a fighter jet, with one drone traveling over 260 kilometers into Belarus, reaching Stolin in Brest Oblast, while others were detected near Loyev, Asarevichi, and Kirovo in Gomel Oblast. The Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that this was the largest incursion of Russian drones into Belarus since the invasion began. The first drone entered Belarus at 11:20 p.m., prompting a fighter jet to be scrambled. While most drones quickly left Belarus, one traveled over 260 kilometers, reaching Stolin in Brest Oblast.
Azov Brigade soldier Oleksandr Ishchenko died in Russian captivity, Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets announced. Ishchenko’s daughter confirmed his death, which occurred nine days ago, though the cause is unknown. Ishchenko, 55, from Mariupol, joined the Azov Brigade as a driver after Russia’s invasion and was captured in Mariupol in 2022. Lubinets has contacted the Russian Commissioner for Human Rights for details on Ishchenko’s death, emphasizing that, according to the Geneva Convention, the detaining power is responsible for the treatment of prisoners of war.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 0
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s Deputy Minister for Strategic Industries, Hanna Hvozdiar, announced that Ukraine could produce over 3 million drones annually but needs additional funding from international partners. Despite having a significant production capacity, financial constraints mean that the state can only partially fund drone production. Ukraine is currently seeking financial support from countries like Canada and is in discussions with the U.K. for the purchase of domestically-produced drones. Previously, Denmark and Canada have contributed to Ukraine’s drone production, with Canada donating $2.2 million in collaboration with the U.K. for this purpose. The Ukrainian defense industry, capable of generating $20 billion worth of equipment, has already begun serial production of long-range strike drones, thanks to contributions from private individuals and foreign investments.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine has received its first batch of U.S.-made F-16 jets, part of an agreement from a “fighter jet coalition” led by Denmark and the Netherlands since last year’s Vilnius NATO summit. Bloomberg reports that this initial delivery includes a small number of jets, with a total of 79 expected from the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway over the coming years. The coalition also committed to training Ukrainian pilots and technical staff. While the immediate impact of these jets on the conflict is debated, they are seen as a boost to Ukraine’s air defense against Russian bombardments. The potential use of these F-16s for strikes inside Russia remains conditional, according to statements from Denmark and the Netherlands.
A Pew Research survey published on July 29 shows Americans are divided on aiding Ukraine, with 48% in favor and 49% against. The split is largely partisan: 63% of Democrats support aid, compared to 36% of Republicans. This division may influence the upcoming presidential election. Former President Donald Trump, a Republican candidate, has promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war, possibly by pressuring Kyiv to cede territory. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden, who supports Ukraine, will not seek re-election, with Vice President Kamala Harris likely to run. The survey also revealed mixed opinions on the level of U.S. aid, with 29% saying it’s too high and 26% saying it’s just right. Additionally, 69% support maintaining sanctions against Russia, and 54% support continued military aid. 54% also want Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia with U.S. arms, though current restrictions limit such actions.
Russia News
Exclusive footage reveals ongoing operations by Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) against Russian military assets in Syria. The latest strike targeted Russian equipment at the Kuweires airbase near Aleppo, destroying a Russian EW complex and other military targets. This operation occurred shortly after a high-level meeting between Russian and Syrian leaders in Moscow. Since 2015, Russia has used the Kuweires airbase for military activities, including training and deploying mercenaries to Ukraine. Additional reports indicate Ukrainian special forces’ involvement in similar operations across Syria and other regions, targeting Russian forces and Wagner Group mercenaries.
Ukrainian forces targeted a weapons and equipment warehouse in Kursk City, causing a significant fire. The Ukrainian General Staff is currently assessing the damage. Concurrently, Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted several Ukrainian drones and missiles over the area. Additionally, recent Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged Russian military assets, including two bombers at the Olenya Airfield in Murmansk Oblast. Ukraine’s Navy, in coordination with other Defense Forces, attacked a weapons storage facility near Kursk, Russia. Explosions and enemy air defense activity were reported. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed it downed one Neptune missile in Kursk Oblast. The Neptune missile, used by Ukraine to sink Russia’s Black Sea flagship in April 2022, has a range of 300 kilometers. Kursk Oblast’s acting governor reported a fire at a facility, which was contained by 4 a.m. local time.
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) completed a week-long cyberattack against Russia’s financial institutions and other targets on July 30, according to a source in the agency. Starting on July 23, the DDoS campaign disrupted services of major banks, payment systems, social networks, government websites, and more. The attack targeted institutions like VTB, Raiffeisen Bank, Alfa Bank, Sberbank, Gazprombank, and Russia’s central bank, all of which support Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The source called it “one of the largest DDoS attacks on Russian internet infrastructure in history,” noting that Ukraine obtained a significant amount of confidential data. The institutions had not fully restored their services by July 30. This attack follows earlier cyberattacks, including one in late June that disrupted communications for 250,000 consumers in occupied Crimea and other Russian-controlled areas.
The Russian State Duma revised a bill that initially criminalized soldiers’ use of personal devices on the battlefield, following backlash from the ultranationalist community. The updated bill removes penalties like disciplinary arrest for using such devices during combat operations. While many Russian military bloggers praised the Duma’s responsiveness, some still pushed for a full repeal of the law, citing ongoing concerns with the Ministry of Defense’s public relations and the lack of clarity between personal and service devices. The effectiveness and enforcement of this revised bill remain uncertain.
Following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack and the June 2024 shootings in Dagestan, Russian officials are reassessing their counter-terrorism strategies. Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov admitted that these incidents exposed significant flaws in Russia’s security measures, prompting a need for fundamental changes in response to terrorist threats. Both attacks were linked to Islamic State actors, highlighting lapses in rapid response by Russian security forces. Despite these challenges, it remains uncertain how Krasnov’s call for policy reform will translate into actual changes in combating domestic terrorism.
Russian gas giant Gazprom reported net losses of 480.64 billion rubles ($5.5 billion) from January to June 2024, nearly double the losses from the same period in 2023. The company has struggled since the invasion of Ukraine, with revenue falling by 30% last year and a net loss of $6.9 billion, the largest in 25 years. Worsening relations with Europe have limited Gazprom’s operations, and while it found some success in other markets, these only account for 5-10% of its European sales. Heavily taxed by Moscow, Gazprom paid $28 billion to the government in 2023. A company report in June indicated that Gazprom would not recover its losses from the invasion for at least 10 years, with exports to Europe expected to average 50-75 billion cubic meters annually by 2035, a third of prewar levels.
Russian prison officials announced that jailed journalist and opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza was being moved from the IK-6 penal colony in Omsk to an undisclosed location. Kara-Murza, sentenced to 25 years in April 2023 for condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine and advocating for Western sanctions, is among many detained amid President Putin’s crackdowns. His lawyer, Vadim Prokhorov, noted that Kara-Murza’s defense team had been unable to access him in an Omsk hospital for two days, raising speculation of a potential prisoner swap involving the U.S., Germany, and others. At least seven other political prisoners, including Ilya Yashin and Lilia Chanysheva, have also disappeared from their colonies this week. This unusual development adds to the uncertainty surrounding Kara-Murza, who is scheduled to appear in court on August 1, though his whereabouts remain unknown.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase the sign-on bonus for new military recruits to 400,000 rubles (about $4,700) for contracts signed from August 1 to December 31, 2024. This initiative aims to support crypto-mobilization efforts and applies to both Russians and foreigners. Regional officials are encouraged to match this amount, with some regions offering over one million rubles (about $11,800). This follows a previous decree from November 2022 that provided 195,000 rubles (about $2,300) for similar contracts post-partial mobilization. Moscow is offering a one-time bonus of 1.9 million rubles ($21,200), the highest so far. Russia seeks new recruits as the invasion of Ukraine strains its military manpower. Kyiv estimates Russian losses exceed 570,000 soldiers killed or wounded, with U.S. intelligence suggesting figures as high as 728,000. The payment aims to provide “additional means of social support” for soldiers and their families.
The Kremlin is actively placing Russian war veterans in government roles via the “Time of Heroes” program, aiming to prepare youth for military service by promoting combat sports. On July 30, Altai Republic Head Andrei Turchak appointed war veteran Captain Alexander Surazov, a participant in the program, as Chairperson of the republic’s Physical Culture and Sports Committee, focusing on developing combat sports and martial arts in educational settings.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has proposed extending the same disability benefits to members of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR/LNR) proxy units as those received by regular Russian military personnel. This includes a one-time disability payment ranging from 4.4 to six million rubles (approximately $51,600 to $70,600) for those who have served since 2014.
A Russian military blogger reported that the Russian military has started to supply computerized sights in large quantities for AGS-17 and AGS-30 automatic grenade launchers to frontline forces. These computerized sights were initially tested on the frontline in 2023.
Russia’s Allies
Ukrainian reconnaissance has detected a North Korean Bulsae-4 M-2018 anti-tank missile system in the Kharkiv region, marking its first appearance in Ukraine. Mounted on a modified North Korean armored personnel carrier, this system can hit targets over 10 kilometers away with fiber-optic guided missiles. It features a top-attack design optimal for striking the vulnerable parts of armored vehicles. The presence of North Korean military equipment in Ukraine highlights a deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, potentially inviting further international scrutiny.
China tightened export controls on military drones amid criticism from the U.S. and allies over its support for Russia in Ukraine. The updated blacklist, which includes drones with high-precision equipment, will take effect on Sept. 1. This move follows Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s visit to China, where he affirmed China’s commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty. Despite claiming neutrality, China has deepened economic ties with Russia and is accused of supplying dual-use goods for military use. China denies these claims, emphasizing civilian drones should not be used for military purposes and opposing sanctions on Chinese entities.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Ukrainian military officials warn that Russian forces are using Leer-3 systems to disseminate disinformation to Ukrainians via fake SMS and Telegram messages. Additionally, Russian propagandists are falsely accusing Ukrainian forces of using chemical substances on the battlefield, likely to divert attention from Russia’s own use of such tactics in Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com