Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, rejected the idea of a negotiated ceasefire and expressed his commitment to a “final” end to the war that would destroy Ukrainian statehood. Putin is demanding both territorial concessions and military capitulation from Ukraine before any negotiations. This stance contradicts previous Kremlin efforts to place responsibility for negotiations on the West and Ukraine. Putin attempted to portray Orban as an EU representative, which EU officials explicitly denied. Recent Russian polls suggest that Kremlin information operations are influencing domestic support for the war, with many “non-opponents” sharing criticisms like ultranationalist milbloggers. Ukrainian forces conducted successful drone and missile strikes against targets in Tambov and Rostov oblasts and Krasnodar Krai. Russian forces made advances near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and Donetsk City. Meanwhile, Russian Ministry of Defense officials continue to claim they provide adequate support for soldiers who fought in Ukraine, despite ongoing criticisms.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Belarusian officials, accusing Ukraine of threatening behavior near their border, claim Ukraine has positioned 15,000 troops there. Major General Vladimir Kupriyanyuk stated Belarus would bolster its border defenses but avoid escalation. This narrative might aim to distract Ukrainian forces from other frontlines, reminiscent of tactics used before Russia’s 2022 invasion launched from Belarus.
Peace Talks
During a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the idea of a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine. Putin expressed his commitment to a “final” end to the conflict that would destroy Ukrainian statehood. He argued against a temporary ceasefire, claiming it would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm. Instead, Putin favors a “complete” end to the conflict, which aligns with his consistent demands for the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity. This marks a departure from Putin’s previous stance of feigning interest in negotiations.
Putin is demanding significant territorial concessions from Ukraine and its military capitulation before any peace negotiations. He called for Ukraine to withdraw from “Donbas and Novorossiya,” referring to occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts, as well as territories Russia doesn’t currently hold in these areas. Putin also demanded Ukraine’s “irreversible demilitarization,” effectively asking Ukraine to give up its ability to resist Russian aggression. These demands align with Putin’s long-term goal of replacing Ukraine’s democratically elected government with a pro-Russian one. Putin’s stance suggests he’s not interested in genuine negotiations but rather in imposing his will on Ukraine.
Putin’s rejection of a ceasefire suggests growing confidence in Russia’s ability to achieve victory through gradual advances, outlasting Western support for Ukraine, and winning a war of attrition. His demands threaten Ukraine’s independence and NATO’s security interests. Putin’s strategy assumes that Ukraine can’t conduct significant counteroffensive operations. To counter this, Western allies need to quickly provide Ukraine with support for counteroffensive operations. This approach could invalidate Putin’s strategy and avoid unnecessarily prolonging the war, while securing a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its allies.
Putin’s recent rejection of ceasefire agreements contradicts the Kremlin’s previous strategy of blaming the West and Ukraine for lack of negotiations. Putin dismissed the possibility of international mediation, despite previously suggesting China and Western leaders as potential negotiators. A leaked Kremlin manual instructed Russian media to portray Putin’s demands as reasonable and frame Russia as willing to negotiate in good faith, while depicting Ukraine and the West as untrustworthy. This shift in rhetoric may complicate ongoing Kremlin efforts to convince certain audiences that Russia remains open to negotiations.
President Putin attempted to present Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as an EU representative during their meeting, claiming Orban could speak on behalf of the EU due to Hungary’s current EU Council presidency. Orban suggested he could discuss issues important to Europe and potentially mediate between parties in the Ukraine war. However, EU officials, including High Commissioner Josep Borrell and European Council President Charles Michel, explicitly denied that Orban has any mandate to represent the EU in Russia. They emphasized that Orban’s visit was strictly a bilateral matter between Hungary and Russia. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also clarified that Orban represents only Hungary, not NATO. This attempt by Putin contradicts his earlier dismissal of intermediaries in potential negotiations regarding Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces are working to identify and eliminate a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group in Sotnytskyi Kozachok, a border settlement 45km northwest of Kharkiv City. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces have seized the settlement, but there’s no visual confirmation of a lasting Russian presence there. This situation highlights ongoing border tensions and small-scale incursions in the Kharkiv region.
Fighting continues in and around Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City. Recent footage shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian infantry on Vovchansk’s outskirts, while other evidence indicates Russian advances within central Vovchansk. Ukrainian officials report intensified fighting in the Kharkiv direction, with Russia regularly introducing new units to replace degraded ones. Russian sources claim Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Tykhe.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with no confirmed frontline changes. Russia claimed to have captured Stepova Novoselivka, but this remains unconfirmed. Attacks continued in multiple locations along this line, including near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Hrekivka, Terny, and the Serebryanske forest area. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces were most active near Terny and are conducting constant small infantry assaults towards Borova, occasionally using armored vehicles and non-lethal chemical weapons.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Siversk, without confirmed frontline changes. They attacked near Bilohorivka (northeast of Siversk), Verkhnokamyanske (east), and Spirne and Vyimka (southeast).
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources claim their forces seized the Kanal Microraion in easternmost Chasiv Yar, aligning with Ukrainian reports of withdrawal from this area. Russian forces intensified infantry assaults near Kurdyumivka, southeast of Chasiv Yar, without using armored vehicles. Fighting continued in multiple locations around Chasiv Yar, including Kalynivka, Hryhorivka, Novyi Microraion, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka. A Russian source claimed Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near Klishchiivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, with confirmed progress in southern Pivnichne and southern Niu York. Russian sources claim additional gains near Druzhba, Pivdenne, and within Yurivka, but these remain unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued around Toretsk, including near Druzhba, Pivnichne, Niu York, Yurivka, and Zalizne.
Avdiivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka without confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources claimed advances in several areas northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka, but these remain unverified. Conflicting reports exist about Russian progress north of Sokil. Fighting continued in multiple locations around Avdiivka, including Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Yasnobrodivka, Netaylove, and Karlivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced north of Paraskoviivka, southwest of Donetsk City. They claimed progress near Kostyantynivka and Heorhiivka, but this remains unconfirmed. A Ukrainian source reported a pause in Russian assaults in the Kurakhove direction due to heavy losses, but increased drone strikes. However, ISW hasn’t observed evidence of a tactical pause. Fighting continued in multiple locations west and southwest of Donetsk City, including Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske, Urozhaine, and Makarivka.
Zaporizhia Line
Limited fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no confirmed frontline changes. Engagements occurred near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka. A Ukrainian spokesperson reported that Russian forces are using small assault groups of 2-3 personnel, possibly due to effective Ukrainian reconnaissance fire. These groups are conducting reconnaissance-in-force operations rather than full assaults.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional fighting continued in east bank Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky and on Dnipro River islands. A Russian source claimed Ukrainian forces have superior drone capabilities in the area. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian base near Nova Kakhovka with six drones, targeting the 66th Command Brigade.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched 32 Shahed-136/131 drones against Ukraine from Kursk Oblast and Krasnodar Krai on the night of June 4-5. Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down all 32 drones over seven oblasts, including Kyiv and Odesa. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that their strikes between June 29 and July 5 targeted Ukrainian airfields, defense industry facilities, and missile storage sites.
Russian forces are adapting their tactics to evade and exhaust Ukrainian air defenses during missile and drone strikes. Colonel Serhii Yaremenko of Ukraine’s 96th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade reported that Russian forces are regularly changing their approach and increasingly equipping missiles with countermeasures, such as radar jammers, to bypass and overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian officials detained 33 migrants in occupied Mariupol, Ukraine, for breaking migration laws, deporting 24 of them, according to Denis Pushilin of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Russian forces deported nearly 100 Ukrainian children from occupied Alchevsk to Vologda under a so-called cultural and education program, likely aimed at erasing Ukrainian identity and culture.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone and missile strikes against targets in Tambov and Rostov oblasts and Krasnodar Krai. A notable strike hit a gunpowder plant in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast, which Ukrainian intelligence sources described as a key Russian military enterprise. While the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) is still assessing the consequences, their spokesperson suggested that Russia will face difficulties restarting operations at the plant. This strike demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to hit strategic targets deep within Russian territory.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery’s “Rostovskyi” oil depot in Rostov-on-Don, causing an explosion and fire. Rostov Oblast’s Governor reported that Russian air defenses destroyed 10 drones, but drone debris still caused fires in the area. The targeted refinery is reportedly the largest supplier of petroleum products in southern Russia and likely serves the Russian Southern Military District. This strike demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to target key Russian military supply infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk air base in Krasnodar Krai using drones and missiles. The attack damaged a nearby substation, disrupting power to residential areas, and reportedly wounded a Russian servicemember. The targeted airbase hosts the 960th Guards Attack Aviation Regiment, equipped with Su-25 variants. The extent of damage to the airfield is unclear, and Ukrainian officials have not commented on the strike. Russian authorities have opened a criminal investigation into the incident on terrorism charges.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Recent polls by the Levada Center show that 58% of Russians favor starting peace negotiations with Ukraine soon, a slight increase from previous polls. This sentiment aligns with Kremlin information operations portraying Russia as willing to negotiate, but only on terms amounting to Ukraine’s capitulation. About 41% of Russians believe Russia is more interested in negotiations than Ukraine, a consistent figure since 2023. These respondents generally approve of Putin’s leadership, believe Russia is heading in the right direction, and trust television media for war information over internet sources.
Recent Levada Center polls show that Kremlin information operations have significantly influenced Russian public opinion about the war in Ukraine. Two-thirds of respondents blame the US and NATO for the war and casualties, an increase from 53% in June 2023. Half of these respondents fear the conflict could escalate into a direct Russia-NATO confrontation. Most Russians express concern about Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory and Western weapon supplies to Ukraine. While 34% believe using nuclear weapons in Ukraine could be justified, over half remain opposed. These results suggest that Kremlin messaging has effectively shaped domestic support for the war.
Recent polls by Russian sociological organizations reveal that many Russians, termed “non-opponents,” criticize the conduct of the war in Ukraine but still support it due to patriotism and a sense of disenfranchisement. These individuals are typically apolitical, have specific complaints about the government, but cite patriotism for both supporting and criticizing the war. They feel unable to influence the government yet more connected to Russian identity since the war began. The percentage of Russians proud of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine has risen to 48%, up from 38% in September 2023. This suggests that Kremlin propaganda has successfully created a layer of patriotism that acts as a buffer between war complaints and meaningful opposition, allowing the government to withstand criticism without facing significant challenges to its authority.
Recent polls suggest that a significant portion of Russians, estimated between 30% and 50%, are “non-opponents” of the war in Ukraine. These individuals criticize the war’s conduct but still support it due to patriotism. A March 2024 poll showed that 49% of respondents cited human casualties as a potential reason to stop the war. The June 2024 poll revealed that 31% of Russians follow the war casually, while 19% follow it closely. This data indicates a complex domestic attitude towards the war, with many Russians maintaining support despite criticisms.
Recent surveys show that many “non-opponents” of the war in Russia share criticisms with ultranationalist milbloggers, particularly regarding the discrepancy between state media reports and the real situation on the frontlines. However, unlike ultranationalists, these “non-opponents” generally feel they can’t influence the government and pay less attention to war details. This contrasts with ultranationalist voices who believe they can affect policy and have advocated for better treatment of Russian military personnel and improved war conduct. Some ultranationalists have even launched political campaigns to promote these changes, showing a more active engagement with the war’s progression and its impact on Russian politics.
The BBC revealed that Russia-based fake news outlets, posing as local US newspapers, are using AI to alter legitimate articles into misleading versions to influence the US presidential election and diminish support for Ukraine. These outlets produce thousands of articles weekly, along with fabricated documents and videos, some gaining significant traction on social media. Newsguard identified over 170 related websites.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org