Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Russian-North Korean cooperation in a North Korean state newspaper article ahead of his visit, likely framing future North Korean support for Russia as a joint struggle against the West. Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil depots in Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai using domestically produced Neptune missiles, targeting areas within range of US-provided ATACMS but protected by US policy. Russian forces made marginal advances near Vovchansk, Svatove, and Avdiivka. Putin continues grooming military personnel for government positions through the “Time of Heroes” program, while Russian occupation officials persist in militarizing Ukrainian youth in occupied territories.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Western officials warned about the dangers of increased cooperation between global authoritarian regimes in response to Putin’s visit to North Korea. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg emphasized the importance of working with Indo-Pacific partners and condemned China and North Korea’s support for Russia’s war effort. US National Security Spokesperson Kirby expressed alarm over deepening Russian-North Korean relations, citing concerns for both Ukraine and the Korean peninsula’s security, and stated that the US is closely monitoring the development of their ties.
Russian state media and officials reacted negatively to Armenia signing a military cooperation deal with a European defense company and procuring French howitzers. They portrayed this as the West intervening and eroding Armenia’s sovereignty, accusing the West of using Armenia against Russia in a “hybrid war.” Russian officials claimed Armenia is severing ties with Moscow and its security blocs like the CSTO by aligning with NATO. However, Russia also tried reassuring its public that Armenia remains part of the Russia-led CIS and economic unions. The reactions highlight Russian concerns over Armenia’s attempts to diversify its military procurement away from Russia.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev hosted an international forum with BRICS and partner countries in Vladivostok on June 17-18. The event aimed to portray Russia as a leader of the “global majority” opposing the West and promoting a multipolar world order. Discussions focused on the role of BRICS in this envisioned new world order. However, Russia continued glossing over its own imperial history and modern attempts to dominate neighboring nations. The forum was part of the Kremlin’s efforts to cast itself as spearheading an anti-Western alliance.
A pro-Kremlin Russian milblogger is likely supporting Russia’s efforts to destabilize Bosnia by infiltrating the information space of the Serb-led Republika Srpska entity. In a recent interview, the milblogger amplified Russian narratives, claiming the Balkans will “catch fire” with new conflicts after Ukraine, accusing the West of trying to strip the region’s identity, and stating Russia would support Serbs against the West. This appears aimed at undermining the Dayton Accords that maintain peace in Bosnia and promoting Russian influence over the Serb population.
During a Belarusian Security Council meeting, the defense minister announced Belarus has developed a new methodology for assessing military security that takes into account the international situation outside the country’s borders. President Alexander Lukashenko stated Belarus must clearly understand various external factors beyond just military threats, indicating current regulations are insufficient.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Ukrainian forces have reportedly recaptured positions near Lyptsi and Hlyboke amid ongoing fighting north of Kharkiv City. A Ukrainian commander stated that Russian forces are constantly assaulting and replenishing reserves in the area, contributing to the high intensity of combat. Russian sources claimed that Ukraine is deploying reinforcements closer to the frontline, potentially to recapture occupied territory. Fighting also persisted near Lyptsi, Zelene, and Neskuchne.
Vovchansk
Russian forces made marginal advances within the Aggregate Plant in central Vovchansk amid ongoing ground attacks. The frontline in Vovchansk is often unclear due to the close proximity of Ukrainian and Russian positions.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made marginal advances west of Kreminna amid continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Ukraine reported Russia concentrating up to 10,000 personnel and 450 military equipment units, including 200 artillery systems, southwest of Svatove, with probing attacks to find weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses. Russia claimed advances near Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna amid ongoing ground offensives in those areas.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces intensified their offensive operations around the town of Siversk. They continued ground attacks on Verkhnokamyanske to the east of Siversk, on Spirne and Vyimka to the southeast of Siversk, and on Rozdolivka to the south of Siversk, reportedly putting more effort into their push in that direction.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacking around the town of Chasiv Yar, with ground offensives in multiple nearby settlements like Novyi microraion, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka. However, there were no confirmed changes to the frontlines in this area. Russian troops also launched five ground attacks south of Chasiv Yar near the town of Toretsk.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made recent advances northwest and west of Avdiivka amid continued ground attacks in the area. They gained ground north of Sokil and approached the eastern outskirts of Yasnobrodivka. Fighting also occurred near several other settlements northwest and west of Avdiivka like Novooleksandrivka and Umanske. Russian troops are operating in small mobile groups likely to counter Ukrainian drones. Ukraine estimates Russia has about 87,000 personnel and hundreds of tanks/vehicles committed to offensives in this direction.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued their offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City, carrying out ground attacks near settlements like Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Maksymilianivka, Kostyantynivka and Volodymyrivka. However, there were no confirmed changes to the frontlines in these areas. Russian milbloggers claimed some advances towards the outskirts of Kostyantynivka and Maksymilianivka, but Ukrainian forces still held portions of Paraskoviivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued ground attacks near the settlements of Urozhaine and Novodarivka along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border area, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontlines. Russian troops employed thermobaric artillery near Urozhaine, and Ukrainian forces struck one of these Russian thermobaric weapon systems east of Staromlynivka using a drone strike.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued assault operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, attacking near the settlements of Mala Tokmachka and Novoandriivka, but did not make any advances. Russian milbloggers noted Ukrainian drone operations are complicating Russian attacks in this area. Russian reconnaissance and motorized rifle units are operating northeast and north of the town of Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued positional battles in the eastern (left bank) part of Kherson Oblast near the settlements of Krynky and Kozachi Laheri.
Ukraine News
Russian forces carried out a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine overnight. They launched 10 drones toward Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, all of which were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. Russia also struck Mykolaiv Oblast with a ballistic missile causing a fire, carried out a cruise missile attack on Odesa Oblast, and hit a civilian target in Kharkiv Oblast with an Iskander ballistic missile.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin is continuing efforts to groom Russian military personnel for government positions through the Kremlin’s “Time of Heroes” program. The commander of the 106th Reconnaissance Squad was selected as one of 83 participants out of 45,000 applicants. Senior Russian officials like the Moscow mayor, foreign minister and Putin’s deputy chiefs of staff are mentoring the participants. Putin announced the program in February 2024, aiming to train military veterans for roles in the Russian government.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities are intensifying efforts to militarize and indoctrinate Ukrainian youth in occupied areas. This includes drone operation courses at a university, Rosgvardia soldiers teaching weapons training to high schoolers, rewriting history textbooks to promote the “Novorossiya” narrative, creating pro-Russian patriotic movements for kindergarteners involving military personnel, and opening “Yunarmiya” centers to instill pro-Russian and militarized values in young people. The aim appears to be imposing Russian control and ideology on the next generation in occupied Ukraine.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil depots in Chushka, Krasnodar Krai, and Azov, Rostov Oblast, overnight using domestically produced Neptune missiles, marking the second time these missiles have been used against ground targets in Russia. The strikes damaged pipelines, engineering equipment, and oil tanks, causing fires that burned well into the following day. The targeted depots have a combined 22 fuel tanks and can handle up to 60 tons of petroleum products per month, with a maximum storage capacity of 30,000 cubic meters. The strikes hit oil depots near the ports of Chushka and Kavkaz in Krasnodar Krai, roughly 250 kilometers from the frontlines and within range of US-provided ATACMS but protected by US policy. The US has not allowed Ukraine to use existing US-provided weapons to strike targets in Russia for much of the war and still prohibits the use of ATACMS anywhere in Russia. Ukraine had to modify its Neptune missiles, originally designed for naval targets, to conduct these deep strikes, a process that took over two years while Russian forces enjoyed protection against Western-provided weapons.
The Russian government is charging Ukrainian servicemen and officials with crimes in absentia as part of efforts to enforce Russian law outside its jurisdiction and suggest Ukraine should not exist independently. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs placed former Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Pyotr Mekhed and former Deputy Chief of Staff Viktor Bokiy on Russia’s wanted list for alleged war crimes. The Investigative Committee ruled to detain a Ukrainian commander for downing a Russian aircraft in February 2024, a legitimate act of war. Russia has also placed officials from NATO countries and Ukrainian leaders on its wanted list for violating Russian laws while outside Russia, highlighting its belief that Ukraine should not exist separately from Russia.
Mikhail Zvinchuk, founder of the Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram Channel, criticized Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and acknowledged the impact of Western sanctions in his second public interview within a month. Speaking to a Republika Srpska media portal, he highlighted Russian military shortcomings, including poor planning and limited capabilities above the battalion level. Zvinchuk admitted Russia’s forces are making slow progress but lack resources to take the strategic initiative. He also noted sanctions have affected Russia’s technological capabilities and fuel prices. His interviews suggest he may be gauging the Kremlin’s response to criticism or supporting efforts to destabilize the Western-brokered Dayton Accords in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Russia’s Pacific Fleet began major military exercises in the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk on June 18 that will last until June 28. The drills involve over 40 Russian ships and will practice anti-submarine operations, missile strikes, countering drones, and other combat training under the command of the Pacific Fleet admiral. The timing of the exercises may be intended as a show of force coinciding with Putin’s visit to North Korea against South Korea and Japan.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia’s navy commander Admiral Alexander Moiseev announced that the Russian Navy will receive 12 new vessels, including surface ships and nuclear submarines, by the end of 2024. He said this is part of a program to provide the navy with 50 new ships and boats over an unspecified timeframe. Moiseev also stated plans to complete testing of small missile ships in the Baltic and Caspian seas.
A Russian milblogger accused several prominent milbloggers of providing faulty “Borey” electronic warfare systems to Russian troops that were funded through crowdsourcing donations. The accusing milblogger said the systems overheat, have poorly constructed antennas and bulky cases that break. The accused milbloggers defended themselves, saying issues are expected after months of use, and criticized the accuser for not helping frontline troops. The dispute highlights issues with crowdfunded military equipment for Russian forces.
Russia’s Allies
Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Russian-North Korean cooperation in a state newspaper article ahead of his visit to North Korea, likely framing future North Korean support for Russia as part of a shared struggle against the West. Putin invoked historical Soviet support for North Korea, thanked Pyongyang for backing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and reaffirmed Russia’s support for North Korea against their common adversary, the United States. By appealing to North Korean propaganda narratives, Putin is setting conditions to justify future requests for aid in Russia’s war effort. The rare visit also helps legitimize Kim Jong-Un’s regime and may be used to extract additional support, such as weapons or manpower.
A new report found that Russia has been evading international sanctions by importing key computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools needed for weapons production from companies based in China, Hong Kong, Turkey, and the UAE since the invasion of Ukraine began. The U.S. has stated that 70% of Russia’s machine tools and 90% of its microelectronics are coming from China, significantly boosting Russia’s defense manufacturing despite sanctions.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org