Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian coast guard base in Crimea, indicating ongoing counteractions against Russian military positions. Meanwhile, Russian troops achieved minor advancements in various regions including near Kharkiv City and along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, amid efforts to enhance their military training and recruitment capabilities. In the geopolitical arena, European nations persist in supporting Ukraine, the Kremlin is pushing for a new “Eurasian security architecture,” and the U.S. is actively fostering ties with Armenia, drawing criticism from Russian officials.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Kremlin officials are actively promoting a new “Eurasian security architecture” across multiple regional groups, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin have been pivotal in advocating for this system, which aims to include diverse countries such as Vietnam and Gulf states, expanding the traditional geographical limits of Eurasia. This initiative represents Russia’s effort to establish a security framework with strong support from China.
The US is enhancing its partnership with Armenia, leading to criticisms from Russia. During a recent visit to Armenia, US Under Secretary Uzra Zeya announced a $16 million investment to develop Armenia’s patrol police and support law enforcement reforms. Additionally, she highlighted the ongoing US-Armenian military collaboration and confirmed the placement of a US Army advisor in Armenia’s Defense Ministry. Russian officials have accused the US of anti-Russian maneuvers in the region, expressing concern over America’s deepening ties with Armenia, which has been distancing itself from Russian influence.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov responded to reports of the U.S. deploying long-range weapons to Germany by suggesting Russia might escalate by deploying missiles, including nuclear-tipped ones, as a countermeasure.
Belarus is enhancing its military cooperation with China, as demonstrated by the joint “Attack Falcon 2024” exercises at the Brest Training Ground. The exercises, observed by senior military officials from both nations, involved Belarusian and Chinese airborne units practicing air strikes, multiple rocket launcher system (MLRS) strikes, and parachute operations against simulated targets.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced key personnel changes: President Alexander Lukashenko appointed Major General Alexander Naumenko as Deputy Defense Minister, replacing Major General Andrei Zhuk who was dismissed due to age. Major General Alexander Bas was appointed as the new commander of the Belarusian Northwestern Operational Command, taking over from Naumenko.
Peace Talks
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on July 17 that Russia is conversing with American “political scientists” about the war in Ukraine, a claim he made during a UN Security Council meeting in New York City. This assertion seems designed to suggest that Russia values Western perspectives on potential peace negotiations and the future of Ukraine. However, this stands in contrast to other official Russian positions, notably from President Vladimir Putin, who has indicated that Russia is not genuinely open to substantive discussions with the West or Ukraine. This rhetoric from Russian officials often aims to shift blame for the ongoing conflict onto Western and Ukrainian refusal to engage in dialogue.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces attempted a brief raid into Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, which was repelled by Ukrainian troops. The incursion followed intense artillery and mortar shelling near the Russia-Ukraine border but ultimately failed to achieve its objectives.
Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian coast guard base in Crimea using naval and aerial drones, striking multiple targets and causing damage. In response, Russian defense forces reportedly downed several drones, although the resulting debris caused minimal damage. The incident reflects ongoing hostilities and tactical engagements in the region.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces achieved a slight advance north of Kharkiv City, with ongoing clashes in the area. Recent footage confirms Russian movement in western Hlyboke, with persistent fighting reported there. In Vovchansk, the situation remains contentious, though a Chechen commander claims control of some buildings. The conflict also persists in nearby Tykhe.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made slight territorial gains in several areas around Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna. Footage confirmed advancements near Stepova Novoselivka, Makiivka, and Terny. Despite claims of further advances east of Terny, no visual evidence supports this. Russian troops also conducted multiple attacks across these regions, including destroying a Ukrainian river crossing near Kupyansk.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued their ground assaults near Siversk but did not achieve any confirmed changes to the frontline positions. The assaults focused on areas southeast and south of Siversk, including Spirne, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Berestove, and Pereizne. Despite claims of advancement near Rozdolivka by Russian milbloggers, no official confirmation has been made.
Chasiv Yar
Russian military units engaged in ground assaults near Chasiv Yar but did not secure any confirmed changes to frontline positions. Russian forces advanced toward the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal and the T-0504 highway. While attempts to cross the canal have been unsuccessful, there’s potential for crossing at other points where the canal goes underground. Additional assaults occurred north and east of Chasiv Yar. Despite claims of advancement in certain areas by Russian milbloggers, these are yet to be confirmed.
Toretsk
Russian forces achieved a minor advance south of Toretsk, supported by armored vehicles. This movement includes progression within the eastern part of Niu York and nearby areas, with specific advancements reported up to notable streets in Niu York, Druzhba, and Pivnichne. Additional advances were also claimed in Zalizne, although these claims primarily come from Russian milbloggers and are pending further confirmation.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made slight advances northwest of Avdiivka, specifically into central Yevhenivka, as part of their ongoing offensive operations. Additional reported advances occurred near several locations including Vozdvyzhenka, Lozuvatske, Prohres, and Novoselivka Persha. Russian forces advanced up to the Vovcha River, with further attacks directed from Yevhenivka towards Vovche and Prohres, and towards Novoselivka Persha from the north.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces conducted ground attacks west and southwest of Donetsk City targeting areas near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka, without achieving any changes to the frontline. A Ukrainian military observer reported that a Russian mechanized assault in the Kurakhove direction was repelled, resulting in the damage of three Russian tanks and two armored personnel carriers.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Ukrainian forces withdrew from Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka, following destructive Russian shelling that compromised their positions. The withdrawal was confirmed by Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, who indicated that Russian forces have likely taken control of the entire settlement and may also be operating in nearby fields. This strategic move was directed by Ukrainian command to preserve the lives of servicemembers. Despite the retreat, Ukrainian forces continue to maintain control over the broader Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces have advanced in the areas south of Hulyaipole and west of Marfopil, southeast of Hulyaipole, according to recent geolocated footage and claims by a Russian milblogger.
Russian forces engaged in offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, though no significant territorial gains were confirmed. Attacks occurred near Robotyne and along the Verbove-Mala Tokmachka and Nesteryanka-Novoandriivka lines, accompanied by the deployment of around 100 unguided air bombs across the frontline.
Petro Andryushchenko, an advisor to the Mariupol mayor, reported that Russian forces are gathering troops in western Zaporizhia Oblast, suggesting a potential upcoming offensive. These troops are being redeployed from areas including Novoazovsk, Donetsk City, and other unspecified regions, moving toward the frontline near Rozivka and Polohy, as well as Tokmak. Additionally, Russian forces are positioning reserves and previously withdrawn units along the Sea of Azov coast to bolster operations in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal also visited fortifications in Zaporizhia Oblast on the same day.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Ukrainian military officials have suggested that their forces may no longer be operating directly in Krynky, Kherson Oblast, due to severe damage from prolonged Russian artillery attacks. However, Ukrainian troops continue combat operations in nearby areas and maintain positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Recent intense conflicts have focused on defending and holding strategic locations in the Dnipro River Delta near Krynky. Reports from Ukrainian naval infantry reveal the high difficulty of defending Krynky with limited resources, describing the situation as a continuous struggle to maintain control amid overwhelming Russian bombardments.
A Ukrainian platoon commander reported heavy and frequent Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions in Krynky, describing them as “meat assaults” with up to eight attacks daily. During the conflict, the size of Russian assault groups decreased from six to seven soldiers to three to four, amidst reports of reluctance to fight among Russian servicemembers. Despite this, the Russian attackers included highly trained personnel like paratroopers and Spetsnaz, operating with notable coordination in the area.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a coordinated missile and drone attack against Ukraine, firing 16 Shahed drones from Kursk and three missiles from southern Ukraine. Ukrainian Air Defense successfully intercepted all drones and two of the missiles across multiple regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhia, Kyiv, and Kharkiv. Despite these efforts, one missile struck a radar station in Tarasivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Ukraine’s Eastern Air Command announced that since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian forces have destroyed over 2,100 Russian air targets within their operational area. This includes 500 missiles, 51 combat aircraft, 14 helicopters, and more than 1,500 drones.
Ukraine’s Allies
European countries remain unified in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression. Ukrainian President Zelensky, at a summit in the UK, highlighted Ukraine’s resistance against Russian advances and urged Western partners to allow more aggressive military actions within Russian borders. He also secured defense agreements with the UK, Czechia, and Slovenia. Additionally, NATO plans to open a command center in Germany to coordinate support for Ukraine by September 2024, and the European Commission proposes launching a “European Defense Union” to bolster EU defense capabilities.
Russia News
Rosgvardia, Russian national guard, proposed allowing Russian Central Bank leaders to carry firearms, including pistols and machine guns, to enhance security at bank facilities, particularly in occupied Ukraine. The draft bill, still pending approval, specifies the eligibility of deputy chairpersons, advisers, and department heads. This move, aimed at strengthening infrastructure security, has sparked criticism from military and political circles, questioning the allocation of weapons to bank staff while frontline needs persist. Critics also view this as a potential power play by Rosgvardia to increase its influence in Russia and Ukraine.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials are working to enhance the training and recruitment capabilities of the Armed Forces. High-level visits were made to the Pogonovo military training ground in Voronezh Oblast, where discussions about staffing and equipment inspections occurred. Meanwhile, tensions persist between Russian forces and former Wagner Group members, with reports of a raid and detention of a regiment’s command. Additionally, Russia is reactivating Soviet-era artillery systems, pulling M-46 artillery systems from storage and potentially sourcing ammunition from North Korea, Iran, and China. Finally, Promsvyazbank announced plans to support the Russian military with thousands of various drones by the end of 2024 through its investment fund.
Russian defense conglomerate Rostec announced the development of the “Leshy” drone countermeasure system by its subsidiary, Roselectronics, designed to protect vehicles and facilities from drone strikes. The system can effectively operate over a range of 250 meters, whether the vehicle is moving or stationary. Meanwhile, Roscosmos and its subsidiary Gonets, in collaboration with drone manufacturer Geoscan, achieved a first in Russia by operating a drone via satellite. Additionally, Russian developer VessoLink has introduced an AI-enabled system that can analyze and transmit the location and count of objects to a ground station, suitable for various drones except the smallest sizes.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian officials are reportedly using misleading claims of international law violations to distract from Russia’s own breaches. The deputy head of the Kharkiv Oblast occupation, Yevhen Lisnayk, announced that a genocide case has been initiated against Ukrainian forces, accusing them of shelling in Kharkiv Oblast. This claim, aligning with the Geneva Convention’s definition of genocide, appears to be a strategic misuse aimed at justifying Russia’s actions and countering documented violations. Russia has previously leveraged similar accusations to rationalize its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, despite lacking credible evidence and facing international criticism for these claims.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org