Summary of the Day:
At the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Germany’s Ramstein Air Base, Western allies announced substantial military support packages for Ukraine. The U.S. pledged $500 million in aid including air defense missiles and F-16 support equipment, while a coalition of European nations committed to providing 30,000 drones. Meanwhile, combat operations continued with Russian forces advancing near Borova, Pokrovsk, and in Kursk Oblast, while Ukrainian forces made progress near Sudzha.
Internal discord is growing within Russia’s elite circles, with high-ranking security officials expressing frustration over Putin’s limited war approach. While these officials advocate for increased mobilization and resources, military analysts note that Russia’s main challenge is not manpower shortages but rather its inability to conduct effective mechanized warfare operations. Despite mounting challenges, Russian leadership shows no interest in meaningful peace negotiations.
A disturbing report from Russian opposition outlet Mediazona revealed that Russian authorities are operating a torture facility for Ukrainian POWs and civilians at the SIZO-2 detention center in Taganrog, Voronezh Oblast. The UN has condemned a recent surge in POW executions, having verified 68 cases since the war’s start. In a separate development, Armenia took steps toward potential EU membership by approving a draft accession law, though final approval will require a public referendum.
The situation continues to demonstrate Russia’s commitment to long-term militarization of its government and society, while Western allies maintain their support for Ukraine’s defense capabilities and sovereignty.
Picture of the Day:
A man stands in the rubble of a private home after a Russian bomb attack in Kherson, Ukraine. According to Roman Mrochko, head of the Kherson City Military Administration, the Russian army released three guided aerial bombs. (Hryhorii Shmatko / Suspilne Ukraine / JSC “UA:PBC” / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The Armenian government has approved a draft law to initiate European Union accession talks, following a public petition with over 50,000 signatures that required parliamentary debate. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that while the government supports this move, Armenian citizens must ultimately approve EU membership through a nationwide referendum. This represents a significant shift away from Russia, as Armenia has already frozen its participation in Moscow’s Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) due to Russian inaction during Armenia’s conflicts with Azerbaijan. The European Parliament confirmed Armenia’s eligibility for EU membership in March 2024. This geopolitical realignment could alter the balance in the Caucasus region, potentially straining Russia’s influence while strengthening EU presence in the area, given Armenia’s historical ties with Russia and its strategic location between Europe and Asia.
Belarus has begun territorial defense training in the Gomel region near Ukraine’s Chernihiv border, scheduled from January 8-31, 2025. While Belarus has increased its military presence near Ukraine, Ukrainian officials state there is no immediate threat of invasion from Belarusian regular forces. President Lukashenko, who faces re-election on January 26, maintains contradictory positions – claiming Belarus is preparing for war while simultaneously calling for peace talks with Ukraine under Moscow-friendly terms. This military activity near the Ukrainian border could increase regional tensions, particularly given Belarus’s role as a Russian ally in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
Russia may revive plans to take control of Belarus after the Ukraine war, according to Russian opposition outlet Meduza. Sources claim the Kremlin aims to frame this as “deeper integration” through the Union State framework, though success depends on Belarus President Lukashenko’s cooperation. The Kremlin reportedly plans to fully absorb Belarus by 2030, despite Lukashenko’s desire to maintain independence. This potential annexation could significantly destabilize Eastern Europe and increase tensions between Russia and NATO, potentially threatening regional peace and security.
Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, is facing a severe energy crisis with only 24 days of gas reserves remaining for cooking and heating. Officials have instructed residents to take emergency measures like gathering in single rooms and sealing windows. The crisis emerged after Russian gas supplies were cut off, with Moscow citing expired contracts with Kyiv and unpaid bills from Moldova’s capital, Chisinau. The region is now relying on electricity from Romania and residents are using wood stoves and electric heaters as temperatures drop to freezing. This situation marks a significant shift as Transnistria moves away from its traditional Russian alignment toward Western connections, potentially affecting regional geopolitical dynamics and humanitarian conditions in the area.
A joint investigation by The Insider and Der Spiegel revealed that Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) offered $200,000 bounties to Afghan militants for killing U.S. or coalition soldiers before the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Led by Lieutenant General Ivan Kasyanenko, the operation reportedly paid the Taliban approximately $30 million. Despite both U.S. and Afghan intelligence being aware of the program by 2019, then-President Trump took no action and never confronted Putin about it. The operation, which aimed to pressure Western forces out of Afghanistan, ended after Trump’s 2020 withdrawal agreement. This revelation highlights ongoing tensions between Russia and Western nations, potentially impacting international security cooperation and trust between major powers.
The Path to Peace
President-elect Trump has extended his timeline for ending the Ukraine war from “24 hours” to several months, with his designated Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg suggesting a 100-day goal. European officials report that Trump’s team has no concrete peace plan yet but indicates continued U.S. support for Ukraine after his January 20 inauguration. While Putin expressed openness to dialogue with Trump, NATO leaders warn that a hasty settlement could embolden other adversaries. Italian Prime Minister Meloni emphasizes the need for concrete security guarantees for Ukraine, though there’s hesitancy among Western leaders about Ukraine’s NATO membership. The current U.S. military support remains crucial for Ukraine’s defense and for bringing Russia to meaningful peace talks.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian elites and high-ranking security officials are growing frustrated with Putin’s limited war approach in Ukraine, according to Russian opposition media Meduza. These officials express concern about the war’s timeline, Western sanctions’ impact, and insufficient military resources, arguing for full mobilization of Russia’s society and economy to a wartime footing. Despite significant military losses, they advocate for escalation rather than negotiations, pushing Putin to initiate additional reserve callups despite his reluctance to take these unpopular measures.
However, Russian elites’ assessment that manpower shortages are the primary obstacle to military success appears misguided. The key limitations are the military’s inability to conduct effective mechanized maneuver warfare, poor strategic planning, and armored vehicle shortages. While Russian forces have achieved slow gains through infantry assaults near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, they cannot convert these tactical victories into deeper advances due to these fundamental operational limitations and vulnerability to Ukrainian drones.
According to Meduza, Russian security elites share Putin’s reluctance to pursue peaceful negotiations, instead focusing on achieving an “image of victory” and securing control over all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts. The Russian government is also planning to militarize society by proposing to elect war veterans to the State Duma through its Time of Heroes program, potentially preparing for future conflict with NATO and leading to more radicalized veterans in government positions.
Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian command post in occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast on January 8. Geolocated footage confirms the strike targeted the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army’s command post.
Russian forces are reportedly moving four S-400 air defense launchers from Syria’s Tartus port, likely part of a larger withdrawal of military equipment following regime change in Syria. Satellite imagery shows extensive equipment lined up at the port, with Russian ships waiting offshore for permission to load. While some suggest the S-400s might be headed to Libya, military analysts believe they are more likely destined for Ukraine to replace air defense losses there. The S-400 Triumf system, mounted on all-terrain vehicles, is a mobile air defense platform capable of engaging various aerial threats including aircraft and missiles.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched a major offensive in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, capturing Leonidovo and Aleksandriya during a large mechanized assault northwest of Sudzha that involved six waves of approximately 50 armored vehicles. The offensive operations span multiple areas including Pogrebki (where Russians made advances), Makhnovka (with minor gains), Staraya Sorochina, Russkoye Porechnoye, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Bondarevka, Guyevo, and Kurilovka.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces achieved gains northwest of Sudzha, with confirmed advances in western Nikolayevka and counterattacks near Pogrebki, Novaya Sorochina, Staraya Sorochina, and Nikolayevka. Ukrainian forces claim to have repelled part of the Russian assault, reportedly inflicting significant casualties – 45 Russian troops killed and 53 injured.
North Korea has suffered approximately 4,000 casualties (killed or wounded) while fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, representing one-third of the 12,000 North Korean troops sent in 2024, with most casualties (3,000) occurring in Kursk Oblast by late December 2024, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement at Ramstein Air Base and U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the U.N. Dorothy Camille Shea. The partnership benefits both nations, with North Korea gaining combat experience and Russian military technology while supporting Russia’s war effort, and Zelensky warned that Pyongyang might send an additional 30,000-40,000 troops to the front.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Starytsya and Vovchansk northeast of Kharkiv City with no confirmed advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces have advanced to within 2 kilometers of Kupyansk, a key northeastern Ukrainian town, launching 12 attacks on January 8 near Holubivka and Petropavlika, while attempting to reach the Svatove-Kupiansk highway to enter the town’s eastern sector. While a Russian source claimed advances of 5 kilometers south of Dvorichna, this remains unconfirmed. Fighting continues north of Kupyansk near Zapadne and Holubivka, and northeast near Petropavlivka, with Russian forces using poor weather conditions to advance with small infantry groups. The situation threatens both the Kupiansk and Vovchansk fronts, particularly with Russian attempts to establish a position in Dvorichna on the Oskil River’s western bank. Despite the dangerous situation, evacuation remains slow, with approximately 900 residents, mostly elderly, refusing to leave the eastern part of the community.
Borova
Russian forces made advances southeast of Borova, specifically west and northwest of Makiivka. They continued attacks across multiple locations: northeast of Borova (near Koliznykvika, Zahryzove, Zelenyi Hai, Borisovka Andriivka, and Kopanky); east of Borova (near Novoyehorivka and Tverdokhlibove); and southeast of Borova (near Makiivka and Hrekivka).
Lyman
Russian forces continued attacking in the Lyman direction without confirmed advances. While a Russian source claimed they reached and are attacking a tactical position near Kolodyazi, this remains unconfirmed.
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Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked in the Siversk direction on January 9 without confirmed advances. They conducted operations near Bilohorivka, and while a Russian military blogger claimed advances of one kilometer south of Verkhnokamyanske and control of nearby tactical heights, this remains unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces reportedly hold positions in Verkhnokamyanske and are launching counterattacks from Serebryanka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacking in the Chasiv Yar area without confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances near a forested area and along the Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway northeast of Stupochky, these claims remain unverified. Fighting occurred within Chasiv Yar and near Bila Hora. A Ukrainian drone battalion commander reported that Russian forces are using small infantry groups with armored support, buggies, and reconnaissance teams to attempt to penetrate Ukrainian rear positions.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked in the Toretsk direction without confirmed advances. Fighting occurred near Toretsk, north of Toretsk near Dyliivka, and west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka. A Russian military blogger claimed Ukrainian forces have been pushed to Toretsk’s outskirts.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made advances near Pokrovsk with confirmed movement east of Yasenove. Russian forces conducted widespread offensive operations across multiple settlements in the Pokrovsk area, including Baranivka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Novovasylivka, Nadiivka, Solone, Novoyeliyzavetivka, and Kotlyne. According to Ukrainian sources, Russian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk rather than launch direct assaults, primarily using infantry without significant equipment support.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kurakhove, though no confirmed advances were made. They conducted operations near multiple settlements including Sribne, Shevchenko, Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, Kostiantynopil, Andriivka, Dachne, Kostiantynopolske, and Yantarne. Ukrainian forces maintain positions near the Kurakhivske Thermal Power Plant and are reportedly launching counterattacks near Petropavlivka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Velyka Novosilka focusing on attacks near Novosilka and Novyi Komar. While Russian sources claimed advances near Novyi Komar, Novosilka, Rivnopil, and Neskuchne, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks in the area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued assaults in the Dnipro direction and around Kozatskyi Island in the Dnipro River Delta but made no confirmed advances.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 70 Shahed drones and missiles across Ukraine from multiple launch sites including Oryol, Kursk, Bryansk, Rostov, and Krasnodar regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 46 drones over nine oblasts (Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv), while 24 drones were disabled by electronic warfare. The attacks damaged homes in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Cherkasy oblasts. Additionally, Ukraine shot down three Iskander-K cruise missiles targeting Kryvyi Rih. In Zaporizhzhia City, the death toll from a January 8 glide bomb strike rose to 13 killed and 116 injured.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 9
Russian forces attacked Kherson with guided aerial bombs, injuring six people and damaging multiple buildings, including a house, kindergarten, and business, according to Governor Oleksandr Prokudin. Two women and four men were wounded, with five requiring hospitalization. The casualty report from yesterday’s attack increased from 113 to 116 injured.
The aftermath of a Russian airstrike against Kherson. (Roman Mrochko/Telegram)
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced at the final Ramstein summit before Donald Trump’s presidency that Ukraine is in talks with the U.S. to obtain licenses for manufacturing air defense systems and missiles within Ukraine, emphasizing this urgent need following a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia that killed 13 people and injured over 100. While Zelensky has previously requested licenses to produce Patriot systems, no approvals have been granted yet, despite Ukraine’s continued vulnerability to Russian air strikes during the three-year conflict. During the summit, he met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at Ramstein Air Base in Germany to discuss strengthening Ukraine’s air defense and securing Western funding for arms production.
Ukraine plans to offer defense industry jobs to its citizens abroad, exempting them from military mobilization, according to National Unity Minister Oleksii Chernyshov. The government will set up centers to help overseas Ukrainians find work in both Ukraine and their host countries, focusing on defense-related positions.
Ukraine’s Allies
At the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Germany’s Ramstein Air Base, Western allies reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s defense industry development, with multiple nations announcing new aid packages. President Zelensky urged partners to sign bilateral security agreements, requested additional air defense systems, and highlighted Ukraine’s goal to maximize drone production in 2025. Defense Minister Umerov announced eight roadmaps through 2027 focusing on key military areas to align Ukrainian forces with NATO standards, while U.S. Defense Secretary Austin noted that Russia’s reliance on North Korea and Iran for military support reveals significant challenges.
The United States pledged a $500 million package including air defense missiles, F-16 support equipment, and ammunition, drawing from the remaining $3.8 billion in presidential drawdown authority funds before Donald Trump takes office on January 20. Germany committed to providing IRIS-T air defense missiles, and Poland announced preparation of a new aid package. A drone coalition including the UK, Latvia, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden signed contracts worth £45 million to supply Ukraine with 30,000 drones.
Canada announced $305 million in additional military aid, including $138 million for Czech-led ammunition procurement, $35 million for Canadian-made ammunition, and $70 million for Ukraine’s domestic drone production program. The aid package has already delivered 11,500 rounds of large-caliber ammunition, 560 SkyRanger drones, and 1,300 CRV-7 rocket warheads in December. During the meeting, Zelensky also highlighted Russian threats, including alleged hybrid operations targeting NATO countries through damaged undersea cables and reported payments to militants in Afghanistan to attack coalition forces.
EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas announced at Germany’s Ramstein Air Base that the European Union is ready to lead support for Ukraine if U.S. backing decreases under the incoming Trump administration.
Denmark and Norway will allocate 178 million euros for Ukrainian arms purchases in 2025, with Denmark contributing 135 million euros and Norway adding 43 million euros. Under the “Danish model,” which involves direct purchases from Ukrainian manufacturers, Ukraine has already received weapons worth 538 million euros. Denmark pioneered this approach with a 630-million-dollar investment announced in September 2024, leading to the production of Bohdana artillery systems. Lithuania has joined the initiative with a 10.3-million-euro investment in Ukraine’s Palianytsia drone-missile program.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation forces are compelling Ukrainians in occupied territories to join the Russian military. According to Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR), 300 Ukrainian citizens in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson regions were forced into Russian military service between October and December 2024. In occupied Luhansk, authorities are offering 2.5 million rubles ($24,450) to persuade locals to sign military contracts.
Russia News
Russian authorities are operating a torture center for Ukrainian POWs and civilians at the SIZO-2 pretrial detention facility in Taganrog, Voronezh Oblast, according to Russian opposition outlet Mediazona. Ukrainian POWs, particularly Mariupol defenders, report severe physical and sexual abuse by guards who torture them to extract guilty pleas for extremism charges in sham trials, with the facility’s notorious reputation being used to threaten Ukrainians in other detention centers. Russian authorities also detain Ukrainian civilians and journalists from occupied territories with minimal cause, denying them legal representation and medical care. While the facility’s management was unclear, the Russian Memorial Center for Human Rights reported in October 2024 that the FSB had taken control. The UN’s Deputy Human Rights Chief Nada Al-Nashif has documented “widespread and systematic torture” of Ukrainian POWs in Russian detention, demanding Russia stop executing Ukrainian POWs after verifying 68 cases of summary executions since the war began, with evidence suggesting Russian military commanders are either directly involved in or allowing these frontline executions.
Tigran Keosayan, a Russian propaganda TV host and husband of Russia Today editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan, is reportedly in a coma following an incident of clinical death. Simonyan announced on Telegram that her husband, who has a history of heart problems, was hospitalized. Social media speculation suggests possible poisoning at a Moscow restaurant, with unverified claims of Ukrainian intelligence involvement. This follows a similar incident in December 2023 involving former Russia Today director Anton Kuznetsov-Krasovsky, who reportedly fell ill under similar circumstances. Keosayan, who hosts “International Sawmill” on Russian NTV, has been under Western sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1830
804930 |
Tanks +10
9741 |
Artillery +24
21789 |
Arm. Veh. +32
20253 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian regions are actively recruiting military personnel by offering substantial financial rewards. Tula Oblast is advertising positions in the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) with an annual salary of 5 million rubles (approximately $48,898), requiring contract signing by March 1, 2025.
Russia’s Allies
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to cut humanitarian aid, refugee benefits, and emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine in response to Kyiv’s January 1 suspension of Russian gas transit. Speaking in Brussels, Fico warned of using Slovakia’s EU veto power as leverage against Ukraine. Hungary has joined Slovakia in opposing Ukraine’s energy policies, with both countries remaining dependent on Russian gas. The situation has heightened tensions as Fico continues to shift Slovakia’s foreign policy toward a more pro-Russian stance, having already halted military aid to Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com