Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian S-300/400 air defense battery in Belgorod Oblast, likely using HIMARS. Despite public diplomatic alignment, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia face disagreements over economic issues like the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. Putin reportedly asked Xi to “snub” the upcoming Ukrainian peace conference in Switzerland as part of efforts to undermine it. Ukrainian forces have advanced within Vovchansk, while Russian forces have made gains near Lyptsi, Avdiivka, Velyka Novoslika, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Additionally, Russian forces continue to abuse Ukrainian POWs, and Russian servicemembers who refuse to fight are being forcibly sent to the front.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russia is increasing military, political, and economic ties with African states. Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov visited Libya on May 31, promising to enhance the Libyan National Army’s capabilities. Russia has reinforced its military presence in eastern Libya, aiming for a naval base in Tobruk. On June 3, Yevkurov visited Niger, signing a cooperation agreement with the Nigerien junta and increasing Russia’s military presence there. Russia aims to replace US forces in Niger and take over uranium assets currently held by French company Orano SA.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is visiting Africa to strengthen political and economic ties. On June 3, he met Guinean junta officials in Conarky to discuss relations, with Russia keen to maintain its bauxite supplies from Guinea for industrial use. Lavrov also met Congolese officials to discuss the Libya crisis, given Congo’s role in the African Union’s efforts there. He is expected to visit Chad and Burkina Faso soon to solidify Russia as a key security partner in the Sahel region, advancing Russia’s military and economic interests.
Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili signed the controversial “foreign agents” bill into law, despite ongoing protests. The Georgian Parliament had overridden President Salome Zurabishvili’s veto on May 28. Georgian Dream Secretary General Kakha Kaladze announced that organizations refusing to register under the new law will face fines and property seizures.
A Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger accused the US of spreading destabilizing influence in Central Asia following a training exercise between the Virginia National Guard and Tajik military forces. The exercise, held in Romit, Tajikistan from April 29 to May 3, is part of a long-term partnership program between Virginia and Tajikistan. The milblogger claimed this cooperation is “seriously alarming” and intended to demonstrate US influence in the region, linking it to Armenia’s recent efforts to distance itself from Russia.
The Washington Post reported on June 3 that a Kremlin-linked propagandist funded far-right European politicians through the Czechia-based Voice of Europe outlet. Artem Marchevsky, associated with Kremlin ally Viktor Medvedchuk, launched this pro-Russian outlet in Prague in May 2023. Over the past year, he funneled up to one million euros monthly to far-right politicians to spread Kremlin propaganda in Western media. The EU sanctioned Voice of Europe, Marchevsky, and Medvedchuk on May 27 for manipulating information in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expanded its sanctions list to include several British politicians, journalists, and Russia experts. This move is in response to efforts to “discredit” and “isolate” Russia. The British government had previously allowed Ukraine to use Western weapons to target sites within Russia, prompting this retaliation.
Peace Talks
In May 2024, Putin reportedly asked Xi to “snub” the upcoming Ukrainian peace conference in Switzerland. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on June 3 that Russia is trying to undermine the summit by persuading other countries not to participate or to attend at the lowest level. Ukraine stresses the importance of US and Chinese participation to pressure Russia into the peace process. The PRC and Saudi Arabia have already announced they will not attend the June 2024 summit.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Russian forces have recently advanced north of Kharkiv City towards Lyptsi. Geolocated footage from May 31 shows them reaching buildings along Studentska Street in northwestern Hlyboke. Reports also indicate Russian forces are moving through forests southeast of Hlyboke. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed fighting near Lyptsi
Vovchansk
Ukrainian forces have regained limited positions in Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, amid ongoing fighting. On June 2, geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces reclaiming a spot along Dukhovna Street in central Vovchansk. Further footage from June 3 revealed close combat between Ukrainian and Russian forces on the same street, indicating Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian sources reported continued clashes in and around Vovchansk and near Starytsya on June 2 and 3. The intensity of Russian assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast has slightly decreased, with smaller troop groupings involved.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Fighting occurred near Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, Terny, the Serebryanske forest area, Dibrova, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a crossing over the Vilshana River, disrupting Russian supply lines. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces destroyed a bridge near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi with guided bombs. Russian forces are also reportedly using glide bombs against Ukrainian targets in the Kupyansk area from Russian territory.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Siversk direction near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka, Rozdolivka, and Vyimka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Chasiv Yar, but no frontline changes were confirmed. Russian sources claimed advances in and north of Kanal Microraion and 400 meters northeast of Kalynivka, as well as crossing the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal. However, visual confirmation of these claims is lacking. Geolocated footage shows Russian infantry briefly crossing the canal but facing constant Ukrainian strikes. Russian attacks also continued near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Fighting was reported near Alebastrove railway stop.
Avdiivka
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces advancing along the M-30 highway west of Netaylove, approaching Karlivka. Russian milbloggers reported advances 450 meters wide and 1.32 kilometers deep east of Karlivka into the Volna-1 holiday village. They also claimed advances south of Netaylove, west of Berdychi-Orlivka towards Skuchne, and north and northwest of Arkhanhelske. Some claimed Russian forces reached the outskirts of Sokil, but these reports are unconfirmed. Fighting continued near Staromykhailivka, Berdychi, Novooleksandrivka, Zelene Pole, Ocheretyne, Novopokrovske, Novoselivka Persha, Kalynove, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Nevelske. The Ukrainian General Staff reported attacks near Ptyche, though no evidence suggests Russian forces crossed the Vovcha River.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued their offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources claimed advances in central Krasnohorivka, a farm south of Krasnohorivka, west of Solodke, and north of Volodymyrivka, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Fighting continued near Novomykhailivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane. The Russian military has concentrated significant forces, including regiments, brigades, and battalions, in the Kurakhove direction.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces made small advances south of Velyka Novosilka, particularly in southern Urozhaine. Fighting continued near Staromayorske.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically northeast of Robotyne, according to geolocated footage from June 1. Fighting continued near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. A Russian milblogger reported Russian forces gaining ground west of Nesteryanka and claimed a nearly two-kilometer advance near Mala Tokmachka over the past week. Ukrainian spokesperson Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk noted a decrease in Russian assaults in the Orikhiv and Kherson directions.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting continued in east Kherson Oblast near Krynky and on Nestryha Island in the Dnipro River Delta. Ukrainian forces are reported to hold positions on Nestryha Island, according to spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk.
Ukraine News
On June 2, Russian forces hit port infrastructure in Odesa City with a ballistic missile, according to Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command. On June 3, they launched a guided bomb strike on Dachne and Slobozhanske in Kharkiv Oblast, damaging civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with international defense and tech companies and Western officials at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. He urged these companies to invest in weapons production in Ukraine and create joint ventures with Ukrainian firms for access to advanced technology. Umerov also discussed defense cooperation with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and highlighted Japan’s support for Ukraine.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is boosting its defense industry. Deputy Defense Minister Dmytro Klimenkov stated on June 1 that Ukrainian companies are developing nearly all the drones used by their forces, with a new contract for 20,000 drones from local producers. The Ministry of Defense also announced on May 30 that it has shortened the process for deploying new weapons to just 10 days to quickly increase battlefield equipment.
Ukraine’s Allies
European countries continue to support Ukraine’s war effort. On May 29-30, Lithuania announced a bilateral security agreement to allocate 0.25% of its GDP annually to Ukraine’s defense and joined Ukraine’s air defense coalition with a 13.5-million-euro investment in radars. Lithuania also pledged 35 million euros to the Czech artillery ammunition initiative for sourcing ammunition for Ukraine. Romania opened a HIMARS maintenance center in Bacău with Lockheed Martin, supporting repairs for Ukraine and NATO. Latvia committed 20 million euros to Ukraine’s drone coalition. Additionally, Spain will join Ukraine’s IT coalition, and Portugal joined the F-16 coalition.
Ukraine’s European allies are responding to its requests for more air defense systems. Italy is likely to send a second SAMP/T system, though no delivery date is set. Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said Romania is considering providing a Patriot air defense system, pending approval from the Supreme Council of National Defense.
Life In Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian forces are abusing Ukrainian POWs, violating the Geneva Convention. On June 2, footage showed Russian servicemen beating and harassing four Ukrainian POWs, forcing them to sing the Russian national anthem. One Russian soldier, identified as Alexei Kirpin, was seen shooting near a POW’s head. The incident is believed to have occurred in the Kharkiv area, where Russian forces have recently been active. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General has launched an investigation, and reports indicate ongoing mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs in Russian detention centers.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces likely used HIMARS to strike a Russian S-300/400 air defense battery in Belgorod Oblast, destroying two launchers and damaging a command post. Geolocated images confirmed the strike east of Kiselyovo. Russian sources claim HIMARS was used due to its range, but Ukrainian officials have not confirmed this. The strike occurred within HIMARS range but beyond other MLRS systems’ reach used by Ukraine. Russian sources may attribute future successful strikes in Belgorod Oblast to HIMARS regardless of the actual weapon used.
China and Russia are in disagreement over the Power of Siberia 2 (PS-2) pipeline, despite publicly showing diplomatic alignment. China wants lower prices and to commit to only a small part of the pipeline’s capacity, causing friction with Russia. Russian President Putin asked Chinese President Xi to finalize the pipeline deal during their May 2024 meetings, but an agreement is still distant. Russia needs the pipeline more urgently, as Gazprom’s profits could drop significantly if the PS-2 doesn’t launch by 2029. China, however, can meet its gas demands with existing contracts until 2030.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian military is forcibly sending servicemembers who refused to fight to the frontlines in Ukraine. According to Verstka, since May 2024, hundreds of these servicemembers, initially held for trial, are being sent to conflict zones in Kharkiv and Donetsk instead of standing trial. Reports indicate that physical abuse and coercion were used to make some soldiers comply. Trials for at least 170 servicemembers were canceled, and they were deployed to Ukraine without the knowledge of legal authorities. This move is seen as an effort to bolster the understrength Russian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Family members of mobilized Russian personnel protested outside the Russian Ministry of Defense, demanding the demobilization of their relatives. At least 10 women participated, but they were denied a meeting with Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and were told by an officer they didn’t deserve to be Russian citizens. The protest was not organized by the “Way Home” social movement, which was recently labeled a “foreign agent.” The women started their own Telegram channels to avoid accusations of foreign collaboration. The Kremlin aims to censor and discredit demobilization movements to support its force-generation efforts.
Russian state-owned defense company Rostec announced that its Tula Oktava plant signed a contract to supply the Russian Ministry of Defense with modernized “Obereg” body armor.
The Russian Stratim Design Bureau announced it will showcase the “Rusak” quadcopter and “Tyuvik” light attack drone at the HeliRussia-2024 International Exhibition on June 10-12. These drones, which are already being tested in Ukraine, feature homing systems claimed to be resistant to electronic warfare interference.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian forces completed training on using tactical nuclear weapons with Russian forces, according to Deputy Commander Leonid Davidovich on June 2. On June 3, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Belarus to attend the Eurasian Economic Union’s Intergovernmental Council.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian milbloggers are spreading videos to discredit Ukraine’s mobilization efforts. On June 2, the Ukrainian Ground Forces warned that these videos, showing staged violence by Ukrainian military police against civilians, are part of a Russian information campaign to create distrust in the Ukrainian government.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org