Ukrainian Forces Capture Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, Russia – Day 904 (August 15, 2024)

Summary of the day: In the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian officials are streamlining their operations in Kursk Oblast, focusing on both coordination and advancing against Russian positions. Despite a perceived reduction in operational tempo, Russian military bloggers acknowledge that Ukrainian forces are making gains in certain areas of Kursk. Meanwhile, the intensity of Russian military efforts continues unabated in Donetsk Oblast, emphasizing the strategic importance Russia places on eastern Ukraine. The Russian command structure in response to the Ukrainian movements in Kursk Oblast is reportedly convoluted and ineffective, highlighting a lack of preparedness for significant Ukrainian advances into Russian territory. Efforts by the Kremlin to control the narrative within Russia involve a hastily arranged coalition of state propagandists and military bloggers, aimed at managing public perception more effectively than its military strategies in Kursk. On the ground, Ukrainian forces, equipped partially by the West, have managed targeted drone strikes on Russian airbases, showcasing their increasing prowess. Additionally, Ukraine is facilitating a humanitarian corridor for the evacuation of Russian civilians from the conflict zone in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating compliance with international legal standards and addressing humanitarian needs amidst ongoing hostilities.

Picture of the day:

A Ukrainian army chaplain gives a homily with Ukrainian soldiers, celebrating the feast of the Assumption, in a forest in Donetsk Oblast. The feast of the Assumption has been celebrated since the time of the first Christians. (Jose Colon/Anadolu via Getty Images)

What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.

Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War

Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramadane, spokesperson for the Tuareg rebel alliance in Mali, firmly denied receiving any external assistance, including from Ukraine, in their July clashes with Malian government forces and Russian Wagner mercenaries in Tinzaouatene, near the Algerian border. Despite Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence hinting at providing “necessary information” to the Tuaregs, Ramadane stated that the rebels acted independently. The clashes were part of the broader conflict involving the Tuareg’s desire for independence in the state of Azawad. Following these events, both Mali and Niger, which are under pro-Russian military juntas, severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine, complicating the geopolitical landscape.

A Russian military unit from the Eastern Military District arrived in Mongolia to join the annual “Selenga-2024” military exercises with Mongolian forces. The exercises will include shooting drills, tactical maneuvers, and training to repel illegal armed groups, continuing a partnership that began in 2008.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

Russian forces are intensifying their offensive in Donetsk Oblast, with ongoing attempts to encircle Ukrainian troops southeast of Pokrovsk. Recent advances by Russian troops have been observed in the areas east and southeast of Pokrovsk, including Hrodivka, Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, and Orlivka, with Orlivka and Zhelanne likely captured. In addition, Russian mechanized units have been active near Donetsk City, with Ukrainian forces successfully repelling some of these assaults in recent days. There have been no significant changes in Russian military operations in southern Ukraine, indicating a sustained offensive effort in the region.

Russia is reallocating some military units from Ukraine to Kursk Oblast, though these are not among their larger or more elite forces, indicating a continued focus on offensives in eastern Ukraine. CNN highlighted that brigade-sized elements, each consisting of at least 1,000 personnel, are being moved to Kursk. However, substantial redeployments are not yet observed, possibly due to the early stages of this strategy or a lack of available troops. The U.S. has noted that Russia remains committed to military operations in both northeastern and southern Ukraine, where active combat persists. Reports suggest that only select portions of Russian units, especially irregulars from Donetsk, are being shifted to Kursk, with Russian commanders wary of weakening their efforts in key combat zones.

Kursk Front – Initiative Ukraine

Ukrainian officials are enhancing coordination of military operations in Kursk Oblast, where forces have made notable advances. President Zelensky reviewed the situation with top military leaders. A new commandant’s office, led by Major General Eduard Moskalyov, has been established in Kursk to oversee security and civilian needs. Additionally, discussions are underway for a potential prisoner exchange with Russia, involving hundreds of POWs on both sides. Ukrainian troops have progressed between 500 meters and 1.5 kilometers in Kursk today, reaching 35 kilometers into the region since operations began on August 6.

Ukrainian forces are making strategic advances in Kursk Oblast, with confirmed control over the town of Sudzha and 82 other settlements covering 1,150 square kilometers. President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that these movements are part of a broader strategy launched on August 6 to disrupt Russian military logistics and prevent reinforcements to Donetsk Oblast. A military administration has been set up in Sudzha under General Eduard Moskaliov to manage the region. Despite a slower operational tempo, Ukrainian troops have secured areas such as Gordeevka, Safonovka, and Bondarevka, with geolocated footage confirming their activities. However, combat stagnates near Korenevo, and near Giri, footage indicates a possible Ukrainian retreat. Ongoing combat also persists near Sudzha, close to the international border. Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated that Ukraine is establishing a “security zone” within Russian territory to protect its borders and facilitate humanitarian efforts, including safe corridors for civilian evacuations and enabling access for international humanitarian organizations.

Ukrainian SBU special forces captured 102 Russian soldiers in a well-equipped stronghold in Kursk, marking the largest single capture of enemy troops by Ukraine. This operation, led by the Special Operations Center “A” unit, revealed that these troops had been abandoned by their commanders, prompting them to surrender. Additionally, Ukrainian forces briefly took control of the Kolotilovka border checkpoint in Belgorod Oblast but were repelled by Russian forces; however, there is no visual evidence to confirm this event. Ukrainian forces are also employing Western-supplied equipment like UK-supplied Challenger 2 tanks in Kursk, adhering to international law which limits targeting Russian military sites. The UK supports Ukraine’s right to self-defense but restricts the use of certain missiles like Storm Shadow against Russian targets. Meanwhile, the U.S. is contemplating providing advanced JASSM missiles to Ukraine, pending reviews on the transfer of sensitive technology and adaptations for Ukrainian F-16s to use these missiles.

The Russian military command has introduced a complex and so far inefficient command and control (C2) structure in response to Ukraine’s incursion in Kursk Oblast. The Defense Minister, Andrei Belousov, announced a new “coordination council” aimed at enhancing logistical, operational, and medical support for forces along the state border in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts. This council will also support civilian evacuations and protect local infrastructure. However, the interaction between this council and existing structures, like the FSB’s counterterrorism efforts initiated on August 9, remains unclear. This overlapping of duties among the Russian MoD, FSB, and Rosgvardia has not been effectively organized, leading to potential confusion and operational inefficiencies. Additionally, the rapid redeployment of up to 11 battalions to counter the Ukrainian advance may face coordination challenges due to these unclear command structures.

The delayed creation of a complicated command and control (C2) structure in Kursk Oblast underscores the Kremlin’s lack of preparation for a significant Ukrainian incursion. Historically, the Russian government did not anticipate the need to defend this border area actively, reflecting a broader oversight in strategic planning. Additionally, President Putin’s avoidance of declaring martial law or acknowledging a state of war has influenced Russia’s defensive strategies. This situation reveals a strategic shortfall in anticipating Ukraine’s military capabilities along the border.

Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces conducted ground assaults near Sotnytskyi Kozachok, northwest of Kharkiv City, along the border with Belgorod Oblast.

Russian forces launched ground assaults near Kharkiv City, specifically north near Lyptsi and Hlyboke, and northeast near Starytsya and Vovchansk. Claims of Russian advances west of Hlyboke and near Lukyantsi were made by Russian milbloggers but remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces report significant electronic warfare activity in northern Kharkiv Oblast, which has disrupted Russian communications and resulted in friendly fire incidents.

Russian air operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast have significantly decreased since Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast began on August 6. Previously, Russian aircraft launched 30 to 50 glide bombs daily in the area, but now only two to four such attacks occur. This reduction is attributed to Russian focus on other frontline sectors and recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian aviation assets within Russia.

Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces carried out ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line targeting areas near Kupyansk and Kreminna, including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, and several others. Despite these efforts, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline.

Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia

Siversk

Russian forces launched offensive operations around Siversk targeting areas including Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Pereizne.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Chasiv Yar including near Andriivka. Despite these activities, no changes to the frontline were confirmed. Claims of Russian advances southwest of Klishchiivka remain unverified.

Toretsk

Russian forces reportedly advanced near Toretsk, engaging in offensive operations around the area including Zalizne, Pivnichne, Niu York, and Panteleymonivka. Despite claims by Russian milbloggers of territorial gains, these remain unconfirmed. Additionally, reports indicate an unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in Pivnichne. No changes to the frontline have been officially confirmed.

Pokrovsk

Russian forces are advancing towards encircling Ukrainian positions southeast of Pokrovsk, making confirmed gains in several nearby settlements including Hrodivka, Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, and Orlivka, with Zhelanne and Orlivka likely captured. They also claimed control of Ivanivka and Novotoretske and are pushing towards Novohrodivka. Geolocated footage supports these advances, and Russian sources detailed a significant push across a 5.24-kilometer front near Zhuravka. Ukrainian soldiers report that Russian forces maintain a substantial infantry advantage in this area, engaging in daily assaults from dawn until dusk. Additionally, Russian troops are reportedly less than six kilometers from Selydove.

Southwest of Donetsk City

Russian forces continued offensives west and southwest of Donetsk City without making significant advances. Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian troops repelling Russian mechanized assaults near Heorhiivka and Mykilske. Despite claims of Russian progress in Krasnohorivka and Kostyantynivka, no confirmed advances were reported. Fighting persisted in these areas, including Vodyane and Vuhledar. Russian military units remain active in the Kurakhove direction, with additional operations near Maksymilyanivka and by Russian drone operators southwest of the city.

Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia

Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area

There were no reports of fighting in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area from either Russian or Ukrainian sources.

Zaporizhia Line

Russian forces conducted limited offensives in western Zaporizhia Oblast but made no significant advances. They launched ground attacks near Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka. A smaller Russian unit also attempted an attack near Robotyne on August 14 but was unsuccessful. The Russian military presence in the Zaporizhia direction totals about 75,000 personnel.

Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia

Russian military activity has intensified near Krynky, a critical village in east bank Kherson Oblast, posing continuous challenges for Ukrainian forces. Over the past week, Ukrainian troops, operating under difficult swampy terrain that complicates fortification efforts, have had to adjust their positions frequently, especially after repelling seven Russian attacks. The situation is further exacerbated by fires caused by incendiary munitions, necessitating occasional relocations of Ukrainian forces. Despite these adversities, no significant changes in Russian troop numbers or overall military tactics have been observed; the battles remain positional. Ukrainian marines have been actively engaged in Krynky since first establishing a foothold across the river in October of the previous year, and although they made notable advances in December, the ongoing conflict and resultant heavy destruction to their positions have persisted, reflecting the fierce and unyielding nature of the conflict in this area.

Ukraine News

Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone attacks against Ukraine. They fired three Kh-59 cruise missiles from Kursk Oblast and 29 Shahed drones from locations in Krasnodar Krai and Kursk. Ukrainian defenses successfully intercepted all 29 drones across multiple regions. Additionally, Russian strikes targeted port infrastructure in Odesa with an Iskander-M missile and hit Kherson Oblast with air defense missiles.

Innocent Victims Of War

The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:

DEATHS: 6 INJURIES: 24

  • In Kharkiv Oblast, two people were killed and four injured. A drone attack in Bilyi Kolodiaz killed a male and female combat medic from the Hospitallers Medical Battalion and injured three civilians in a separate vehicle. Additionally, a 64-year-old man was injured in Kupiansk when a drone struck his car. (Russian War Crimes)
  • In Kherson Oblast, Russian attacks resulted in one death and 13 injuries, including a child. The assaults damaged 16 houses, critical infrastructure, gas pipelines, and farm buildings. Specific incidents included a drone strike in Kherson city that killed one man and injured two others, and an earlier attack that wounded three people, including a woman and her daughter. (Russian War Crimes)
  • In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, four civilians were injured by Russian shelling in Vasylivskyi district. Over the day, Russian forces attacked 14 settlements in the oblast a total of 397 times. (Russian War Crimes)
  • In Donetsk Oblast, Russian shelling killed two civilians—one in Maksymilianivka, Pokrovsk district, and another in Zoria, Kramatorsk district. The region experienced 10 shellings of populated areas throughout the day. (Russian War Crimes)
  • Russian forces launched attacks on 11 communities in Sumy Oblast, resulting in one death and three injuries. A total of 147 explosions occurred during 56 attacks throughout the region, with the town of Krasnopillia experiencing the most significant impact—56 explosions, including an airstrike that killed one civilian and wounded three. The affected communities also faced mortar, artillery, missile, and drone assaults, with additional mine drops in the Esman community. (Russian War Crimes)

Life in Ukrainian-Occupied Russia

Ukraine is establishing a humanitarian corridor to evacuate Russian civilians from Kursk Oblast to Sumy Oblast, a measure announced by Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk, which includes ongoing coordination with the military and a 24-hour hotline for those needing aid or evacuation. This effort adheres to international humanitarian law as outlined in Protocol 4 of the Geneva Convention, which mandates the evacuation of civilians for their safety by an occupying power, while prohibiting forced removals. Despite these initiatives, Russian authorities have not coordinated similar efforts nor requested an evacuation route further into Russia, limiting Ukraine’s legal ability to establish such a corridor. This has prompted some civilians to consider evacuation to Ukraine due to a lack of alternatives, with all evacuations being voluntary. Further, amid expanding Ukrainian control in Kursk Oblast, discussions are underway about establishing civil administrative bodies and military command posts to manage the area and provide necessary aid. Ukraine is also creating a “security zone” within Russian territory to safeguard its borders and facilitate these evacuations. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko has reported that local Russian authorities have abandoned their posts, leaving civilians without basic necessities, prompting Ukrainian plans to assist in providing essential supplies.

Russia News

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that on the night of August 13 to 14, Ukrainian forces conducted successful drone strikes on four Russian air bases, including Khalino in Kursk City, Savasleyka in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and Borisoglebsk and Baltimor in Voronezh Oblast. These strikes targeted Su-34 and Su-35 fighter aircraft and damaged fuel storage and weapons facilities. Satellite imagery confirmed damage at the Savasleyka Air Base.

Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

The Russian government proposed a bill to lower the minimum age for joining the DOSAAF, a group that focuses on patriotic, military education, and defense training, from 18 to 14 years. This change would also apply to public associations and non-profits. DOSAAF, led by Army General Alexander Dvornikov, also prepares members for Russia’s mobilization reserve.

The Russian military is actively recruiting servicemen engaged in Ukraine to fill junior officer training slots due to low enrollment in command schools. Regiment commanders are selecting standout sergeants and informal leaders from the ranks for these courses, which some are using as a respite from combat. The interest in military education has dropped significantly since the invasion of Ukraine, prompting the military to widen its recruitment efforts to include younger individuals from various educational institutions. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger noted that there’s a misconception about the high qualifications required for these schools, suggesting that incentives should be extended to attract candidates nationwide.

At the “Army-2024” forum, Russian developers introduced “Volnorez X,” a new helicopter-mounted electronic warfare system designed to counter drones. This development follows successful Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian helicopters in Kursk Oblast, prompting the adaptation of the existing “Volnorez” system for aerial use.

At the “Army-2024” forum, the Russian United Aircraft Corporation unveiled the S-76 unmanned transport system, capable of vertical takeoff and landing. This drone can carry up to 300 kilograms, fly as far as 1,000 kilometers, reach altitudes up to four kilometers, and achieve speeds of up to 180 kilometers per hour.

Controlling The Narrative and Russian Propaganda

The Kremlin is prioritizing control over Russia’s information space rather than addressing its military and command issues in Kursk Oblast. Russian officials have launched a campaign to discredit independent milbloggers who report on Ukrainian activities in Kursk, accusing them of spreading “fake” news. State Duma Deputy Dinar Gilmutdinov has called for stringent censorship on social media to prevent panic and misinformation that could benefit Ukrainian forces. This move is seen by some milbloggers as an attempt to suppress accurate reporting and control the narrative around the Ukrainian incursion.

The Kremlin is rapidly shaping an information space dominated by state-aligned milbloggers and propagandists. Amidst this, Alexander Sidyakin of the United Russia Party defended some milbloggers, noting their direct interactions with President Putin and the Russian military leadership, suggesting they play a role in countering Ukrainian misinformation. However, this defense appears to mainly support Kremlin-backed bloggers. Recent moves include a law signed by Putin requiring influential milbloggers and social media users to register with the state censor, aimed at controlling dissent and securing the information narrative during the Ukrainian incursion.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko echoed Kremlin narratives, making standard nuclear threats and accusing the US and Western countries of initiating and perpetuating the conflict in Ukraine.

Source Material

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com

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