Summary of the Day:
Ukraine launched a significant military initiative called “Drone Line” announced by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The project will expand five existing drone units and integrate them with infantry operations to create effective defense zones up to 15 kilometers deep. This strategy markedly differs from Russia’s approach of centralizing drone operations under strict military control, which may limit their ability to innovate quickly.
Ukrainian forces continued their strategic campaign against Russian infrastructure, targeting the Afipsky Oil Refinery and Krasnodar City. The Afipsky facility, which produces 6.25 million tons of oil annually, is crucial for supplying fuel to Russian military operations in southern Ukraine. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal revealed that Russian authorities systematically authorized torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russian prisons since March 2022, with Major General Igor Potapenko explicitly instructing prison special forces to “be cruel” to Ukrainian POWs.
On the battlefield, both sides reported territorial gains near Pokrovsk, while Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar. However, Russian military effectiveness continues to be compromised by systemic issues of false reporting and tactical micromanagement by senior officers.
The conflict’s international dimensions expanded as evidence emerged of deepening Russia-North Korea cooperation. Reports indicate North Korean citizens may be entering Russia’s workforce and military under the guise of educational exchanges, while Russia claims to be sending wounded soldiers to North Korea for medical treatment, potentially facilitating military knowledge transfer between the two nations.
Picture of the Day:
A man cleans up rubble inside a damaged medical institution after a Russian attack with a guided aerial bomb in Kramatorsk. On Feb. 9, 2025, the Russian army dropped a 500-kilogram aerial bomb on a residential area in the old part of the city. The airstrike killed one person and injured twelve. (Yevhenii Vasyliev/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova rejected €60 million in EU aid for gas deliveries amid a critical energy crisis following Gazprom’s supply cessation in January. While Transnistrian authorities cited concerns over EU conditions, including human rights improvements and tariff increases (despite the EU offer requiring only gradual increases), Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean stated that Tiraspol refused under Moscow’s pressure. Instead, Transnistria will receive gas through an alternative arrangement involving Hungarian trader MET Gas and Dubai-based JNX General Trading LLC, with Russia providing financial backing, to prevent a humanitarian crisis. This situation demonstrates Russia’s determination to maintain control over its occupied region of Transnistria despite its own economic challenges, potentially contributing to ongoing regional instability and limiting Western influence in Moldova. The development highlights growing tensions between EU-leaning Moldova and Russian influence in the region, potentially impacting regional stability as Moldova pursues EU accession while still depending on Russian-gas-powered electricity from Transnistria’s Kuciurgan plant.
Elon Musk, heading the new Department of State Efficiency (DOGE), has called for shutting down Voice of America and Radio Liberty, both US government-funded media outlets. The call came in support of criticism from former Trump envoy Richard Grenell about taxpayer funding for these organizations. Musk claimed they’re ineffective and waste $1 billion annually.
European nations are considering large-scale seizures of Russian oil tankers in the Baltic Sea following incidents including damage to an undersea power cable between Finland and Estonia, reportedly caused by a Russian “shadow fleet” tanker. The Eagle S vessel was detained by Finland for investigation. This development has prompted NATO to increase its military presence in the region, while European countries draft legislation to enable tanker seizures on environmental or piracy grounds. The situation raises tensions in the Baltic region, where nearly 50% of sanctioned Russian oil trade occurs, amid growing concerns about Russia’s potential sabotage of critical infrastructure. This escalation could further strain international relations and maritime security in Northern Europe.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Moscow on May 9 for Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, marking World War II’s 80th anniversary, according to Russian Ambassador Igor Morgulov. Xi has reportedly invited Putin to China for similar commemorations. China has emerged as Russia’s key supplier of dual-use goods supporting its defense industry since the invasion of Ukraine. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico and North Korean soldiers will also attend the Moscow celebrations, while Ukraine has shifted its World War II remembrance to May 8, aligning with European observances. While China presents itself as a potential peace mediator, NATO has labeled it a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s aggression, as Moscow continues to use Victory Day for propaganda and to justify its invasion of Ukraine.
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis announced his resignation effective February 12 to prevent a potential crisis amid impeachment attempts by far-right opposition parties. The situation arose after Romania’s first-round presidential election results were annulled due to alleged Russian interference and a TikTok campaign supporting pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu. Senate chairman Ilie Bolojan will serve as interim president until new elections in May. Georgescu, who opposes military support for Ukraine and Ukrainian grain transit through Romania, leads the polls with 23% support. This political upheaval in Romania, a key NATO ally, could impact regional stability and Western support for Ukraine, particularly given Georgescu’s pro-Russian stance.
The Path to Peace
President Trump confirmed communication with Russian President Putin regarding efforts to end the war in Ukraine, though he declined to share details of their conversations. The Trump administration is pursuing a swift resolution to the conflict within its first 100 days in office, expressing urgency to stop the ongoing casualties.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine launched a new military initiative called “Drone Line” announced by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The project will expand five existing drone units and integrate them with infantry operations to create effective defense zones up to 15 kilometers deep. This strategy aims to detect and engage Russian forces before they can reach Ukrainian positions, while maintaining separate drone units to allow for quick adaptation of combat tactics and technology.
Ukraine and Russia are taking contrasting approaches to drone warfare. While Ukraine is integrating drones with ground forces while keeping drone units independent, Russia is centralizing its drone operations under strict military control. Russia began consolidating drone units in Fall 2024, dissolving informal drone groups and creating new units under Ministry of Defense oversight, including its first dedicated unmanned systems regiment. This centralization may limit Russia’s ability to quickly adapt and innovate with drone technology and tactics.
Russian military bloggers are highlighting ongoing systemic problems in the Russian forces, particularly regarding false battlefield reporting and inappropriate micromanagement by senior officers. They claim commanders have been submitting inaccurate reports since the 2022 invasion began, citing a recent example of falsely claimed success at Bilohorivka. This has led to senior officers distrusting subordinates and micromanaging tactical operations, preventing junior officers from gaining combat experience.
Russian military instructors claim their forces are now using new countermeasures against Ukrainian drones, including portable “pocket” electronic warfare systems.
Russian military officials have defended their use of donkeys for front-line logistics support, with Lt. Gen. Viktor Sobolev of the Defense Committee calling it “normal” practice. Recent reports show the Russian Defense Ministry is officially deploying donkeys to transport ammunition and supplies due to vehicle shortages. Russian soldiers near Svyatohirsk reported receiving donkeys as standard equipment, with one unit getting four animals for ammunition transport. The practice isn’t unique to Russian forces – Ukraine’s 112th Territorial Defense Brigade previously used a donkey nicknamed “Himars” to transport ammunition and supplies across a five-kilometer route near Svyatohirsk, where vehicles couldn’t access positions due to constant fire. The donkey was later evacuated from the Donetsk region to Odesa.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Recent fighting in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast has seen Russian forces advance near several settlements, including Pogrebki, Viktorovka, Sverdlikovo, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and Fanaseyevka. Russian forces confirmed reaching Sverdlikovo’s northwestern outskirts, though Ukrainian forces later re-entered the settlement. President Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast forced Russia to redirect troops from southern Ukraine, disrupting planned attacks on Zaporizhzhia City and preventing new offensives in Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The Ukrainian Border Service reported reduced Russian artillery activity along the border due to this redeployment.
Ukrainian forces launched drone strikes targeting key oil facilities in Russia, specifically at Krasnodar City and the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Neftekachka, Krasnodar Krai. The Afipsky facility, located 124 miles from the front line, produces 6.25 million tons of oil annually and is crucial for supplying fuel and aviation kerosene to Russian military operations in southern Ukraine. Russian officials reported intercepting 15 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions, including Bryansk, Rostov, Belgorod, Kursk, and occupied Crimea, with some debris causing damage to civilian structures, including the 19th floor of a residential building in Krasnodar city and an area near a market.
This attack follows recent Ukrainian strikes on a mini-refinery in Novominskaya and the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield, a key launch site for Russian drones, as part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to disrupt Russian fuel supplies and reduce war funding. While the extent of damage to the Afipsky refinery remains unclear, these strategic strikes aim to weaken Russia’s military capabilities and its ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine, marking another development in the ongoing reciprocal attacks by both sides targeting energy and military infrastructure.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, but made no confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances in eastern Vovchansk, this remains unverified.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kupyansk targeting multiple settlements including Fyholivka, Dvorichna, Kindrashivka, Holubivka, Petropavlivka, and Stepova Novoselivka, but made no confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances near Topoli and Zapadne, these claims remain unverified.
Borova
Russian forces continued attacks around Borova targeting Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zeleny Hai, Kopanky, and Novoserhiivka, but made no confirmed advances. A Ukrainian brigade commander reported that Russian forces suffered up to 90 percent casualties during recent assaults near Kruhlyakivka and Kolisnykivka.
Lyman
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Lyman targeting Yampolivka, Novolyubivka, Terny, Kolodyazi, and Torske, but made no confirmed advances.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Siversk direction but made no confirmed advances. A Ukrainian brigade reported repelling a Russian assault involving at least 30 soldiers. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances near Verkhnokamyanske, these remain unverified.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made advances south of Chasiv Yar with confirmed progress near the settlement of Stupochky. While Russian military bloggers claimed additional advances northwest and west of Chasiv Yar, these reports remain unconfirmed.
Russian forces are regrouping for new assaults on Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, according to Ukrainian military spokesperson Lt. Col. Dmytro Zaporozhets. The eastern town, located 15 miles from Kramatorsk, has been partially under Russian control since Ukraine withdrew from its eastern Kanal neighborhood in July 2024. While The Moscow Times reported Chasiv Yar’s fall to Russian forces on January 29, neither side has officially confirmed this claim, and intense street-to-street fighting continues in the area.
Toretsk
Russian forces launched attacks in and around Toretsk targeting the city itself as well as nearby Shcherbynivka to the west and Krymske to the east. However, they failed to make any confirmed territorial gains in these operations.
Pokrovsk
In intense fighting around Pokrovsk both Ukrainian and Russian forces made limited advances. Ukrainian forces successfully cleared the industrial zone in Vodyane Druhe, pushed Russians out of parts of Dachenske, and captured most of Pishchane. Russian forces achieved a small advance in eastern Udachne. Fighting occurred across numerous settlements including Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Novooleksandrivka, Myrnohrad, and several others, with Russian forces claiming additional unconfirmed advances near Novopavlivka, Nadiivka, and Preobrazhenka.
Andriivka
Russian forces continued attacks near Kurakhove targeting settlements including Dachne, Ulakly, Andriivka, Bahatyr, Kostiantynopil, Zelenivka, and Rozlyv. While Russian sources claimed advances in several of these areas, none were confirmed. Ukrainian forces maintain some positions in Dachne.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces launched attacks near Velyka Novosilka targeting the settlements of Novosilka and Vremivka but failed to make any advances.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no Russian advances reported. While there was no reported activity in the Polohy direction, Russian drone operators are conducting strikes in the area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
No military activity was reported by either Russian or Ukrainian sources in the Kherson direction.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a major drone attack against Ukraine overnight firing 83 Shahed and decoy drones from multiple locations in Russia. Ukrainian forces intercepted 61 drones across eleven regions, while 22 decoy drones were reportedly neutralized by electronic warfare. The attacks damaged infrastructure in Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad regions.
Ukraine’s Border Guard reports a 45% drop in illegal border crossings since July 2024, though daily attempts continue, particularly by military-aged men seeking to avoid mobilization. Most unauthorized crossings occur along borders with Romania and Moldova, with fewer incidents at Slovakia and Hungary crossings, and the lowest number at the Polish border. However, Poland’s checkpoints see the highest number of attempted illegal crossings due to heavy passenger traffic. The border service has uncovered over 760 criminal groups organizing these escapes since Russia’s invasion began, including 40 in January 2025. While countries like Lithuania and Poland support Ukraine’s efforts to return military-aged men, they oppose forced deportation.
Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) has launched an investigation into Defense Minister Rustem Umerov for possible abuse of power. The probe stems from Umerov’s controversial dismissal of Marina Bezrukova as head of the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) and appointment of Arsen Zhumadilov as her replacement. The dismissal occurred despite the DPA supervisory board’s unanimous vote to extend Bezrukova’s contract. While President Zelensky supports the defense minister’s authority to ensure continuous military supplies, anti-corruption activists claim the ministry’s actions were unlawful. The DPA maintains that Bezrukova remains in charge, creating a legal conflict that could potentially impact military procurement.
A 58-year-old Russian national has confessed to killing two Ukrainian soldiers (aged 23 and 36) in Murnau, Germany, in April 2024. The incident occurred after an argument about Russia’s war in Ukraine while drinking at a bar. The suspect, described as an advocate of “exaggerated Russian nationalism” who supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, allegedly stabbed the soldiers after feeling his “national pride” was violated. Both victims, who were in Germany for rehabilitation from war injuries, died from their wounds the same day. The suspect, a German resident since the 1990s, was immediately detained, and investigators are considering political motives for the killings.
The WIG Ukraine index on the Warsaw Stock Exchange has surged by nearly 25% to pre-war levels following U.S. promises of a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The market optimism reflects investor expectations of Ukraine’s territorial recovery and EU accession talks, benefiting both Ukrainian agricultural holdings (Kernel, Astarta, Ovostar, and IMC) and Polish construction firms like Grupa Kety and Budimex, according to Erste Securities analyst Jakub Szkopek.
U.S. President Trump’s foreign funding freeze is impacting efforts to prosecute Russian war crimes in Ukraine, with six U.S.-funded projects at Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office worth $89 million now at risk. According to Reuters, funding for at least five projects has already been frozen, affecting initiatives from battlefield evidence preservation to anti-corruption efforts. The freeze has also halted the work of nearly 40 experts at Georgetown University’s International Criminal Justice Initiative, who were helping investigate the more than 140,000 alleged Russian war crimes documented by Ukrainian prosecutors.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine plans to offer lucrative “special contracts” to young volunteers aged 18-24, including a Hr 1 million ($24,000) annual salary, zero-interest mortgages, and free higher education, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced. This initiative comes as Ukraine faces pressure from U.S. lawmakers and NATO allies to lower its draft age from 25 to 18 to address military personnel shortages. Currently, only men 25-60 are subject to conscription. The one-year contract option aims to attract volunteers while preserving Ukraine’s traditional opposition to drafting younger citizens, with full details expected to be released soon.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has approved the new domestically-produced Baton drone for military use, designed for reliability in extreme weather and battlefield conditions. This development is part of Ukraine’s broader drone warfare strategy to develop long-range missile-drone hybrids like Palianytsia and Peklo. The Peklo drone has a range of 430 miles and speed of 430 mph, while President Zelensky has set an ambitious target of producing 30,000 long-range drones in 2025. This advancement in drone technology represents Ukraine’s growing capability to enhance its defense systems independently.
Ukraine’s Allies
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his election challenger Friedrich Merz both affirmed their support for Ukraine during a televised debate on February 9, ahead of Germany’s February 23 snap elections. While Merz, who leads in polls, advocated for providing Ukraine with Taurus missiles and criticized past hesitation in support, Scholz emphasized Germany’s significant military aid while maintaining his refusal to send the long-range missiles. Germany ranks as Ukraine’s second-largest military donor, having provided $11 billion in assistance, including Leopard tanks and air defense systems. Both leaders stressed the importance of helping Ukraine build a strong military, with Germany’s role becoming increasingly critical amid uncertainty about future U.S. support.
Vice President JD Vance will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference (February 14-16), where U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Special Envoy Kellogg will also attend. Following the conference, Trump plans to meet Zelensky in Washington, while Kellogg is expected to visit Ukraine on February 20. The discussions include the possibility of Ukraine providing rare earth minerals in exchange for U.S. aid, with representatives from Trump’s team visiting Ukraine this week ahead of the conference to further these talks.
Latvia’s Defense Ministry has ordered Patria 6×6 armored personnel carriers for Ukraine, with delivery expected in late 2025. The Finnish-made vehicles can transport up to 10 soldiers and serve multiple functions including troop transport and medical evacuation. As one of Ukraine’s strongest allies, Latvia pledges 0.25% of its GDP annually for military aid to Ukraine, with Defense Minister Andris Spruds noting that combat use will provide valuable insights for Latvia’s armed forces.
The European Union is planning to revise its foreign aid program to better align with its strategic interests, including strengthening alliances and securing raw materials, amid parallel changes in U.S. foreign aid policy. This shift comes as the Trump administration moves to dismantle USAID, placing it under State Department control and planning significant workforce reductions. The changes could significantly impact Ukraine, which has received over $37.6 billion in USAID support since Russia’s invasion, including crucial funding for rebuilding schools, bomb shelters, and energy infrastructure. These simultaneous shifts in both EU and U.S. foreign aid policies could have major implications for global humanitarian assistance and stability, particularly in conflict zones like Ukraine.
Czech authorities are investigating allegations that members of the country’s Special Forces illegally transported military equipment and drones to Ukraine without required parliamentary approval, Defense Minister Jana Cernochova announced. The probe centers on the Nemesis project, a public fundraising initiative that has collected $8.5 million for Ukrainian drones. The investigation specifically examines potential unauthorized use of Defense Ministry property and military personnel. The situation has highlighted tensions between Defense Minister Cernochova and Army Chief of Staff General Karel Rehka, who serves as honorary chairman of the organization under investigation.
Russia News
The Wall Street Journal revealed that Russian authorities systematically authorized torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russian prisons since March 2022. Major General Igor Potapenko, then head of the Federal Penitentiary Service in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast, instructed prison special forces to “be cruel” to Ukrainian POWs with no restrictions on violence. Similar directives were issued across Russian prisons in early 2022. This systematic abuse, along with increasing battlefield executions of Ukrainian POWs, demonstrates high-level Russian authorization of war crimes. Notably, Potapenko was later promoted to Vice Governor of St. Petersburg for Security and Migration Policy in 2024.
The Kremlin appears to be preparing to explain an increase of North Korean citizens in Russia, under the guise of educational exchange. Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora announced that North Korean professors will teach in several Russian cities and North Korean students will receive internships. This follows South Korea’s intelligence report that North Koreans are entering Russia on student visas to work in construction. These arrangements likely violate UN Security Council Resolution 2397, which bans North Koreans from working abroad – a resolution Russia supported in 2017 but undermined by vetoing related monitoring efforts in March 2024.
Russian Ambassador Matsegora claimed Russia is sending “hundreds” of wounded soldiers to North Korea for medical treatment, with North Korea reportedly refusing payment for these services. This claim is questionable given reports that the Russian military typically returns wounded soldiers to combat without proper treatment. The arrangement could potentially serve as cover for Russian military personnel to share combat experience from Ukraine with North Korean forces.
Companies in St. Petersburg, particularly the city-owned TEK Joint Stock Company, are reportedly forcing employees to donate part of their salaries to support the Russian military through the Suvorov Charitable Foundation. Employees who refuse face loss of bonuses worth up to half their salary. This comes as Russia has also cut enlistment bonuses for prisoner volunteers and modified wounded servicemember payments, suggesting efforts to reduce war-related costs.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1390
851880 |
Tanks +13
10014 |
Artillery +44
22923 |
Arm. Veh. +31
20844 |
Aircraft 
370 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia announced additional military pension increases of 4.5 percent starting October 2025, following a 9.5 percent increase in January. While officials claim Russian inflation is around 9 percent, actual inflation is estimated to be closer to 20 percent.
Russian state media reports that the Kizlyar Electromechanical Plant has developed a new hybrid drone called “Solist,” which combines features of a guided munition and drone. The weapon has a 10-kilometer range, uses standard grenade launcher ammunition, and includes a camera allowing operators to guide it to targets during descent, particularly useful when direct line of sight is blocked.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com