Summary of the day: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky provided updates on the ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast, emphasizing the strategic objectives there. Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers report continued advancements by Ukrainian forces in the region, despite Russian attempts to stabilize the situation. The Russian military has been reallocating forces, including irregular units from Donetsk, to counter the Ukrainian movements in Kursk. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Alexei Dyumin to oversee the “counterterrorism operation” in response to the Ukrainian incursion. Amid these military developments, the Russian government continues to portray Ukraine as reluctant to participate in peace negotiations while simultaneously fining major communication platforms for not removing content deemed prohibited. These events underscore the intensifying dynamics and complexities on the Eastern European front.
Picture of the day:
Destroyed houses following Russian shelling in the village of Loknya, Sumy Oblast, near the border with Russia. (Roman Pilipey/AFP via Getty Images)
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), secret documents suggest that the Russian military has identified target cities worldwide, including in allied nations like China and Iran, for potential nuclear strikes in the event of a major war. The documents, dated from 2008 to 2014, detail Russian naval strategies involving the use of seaborne missiles capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads. They reveal plans for early nuclear strikes alongside conventional attacks and suggest a broader targeting scope that extends beyond Europe to include Asia. The files also discuss defensive nuclear strategies against hypothetical Chinese invasions and confirm the capacity of Russian surface ships to carry nuclear weapons, highlighting the significant risks associated with such strategies.
At the Army-2024 forum in Moscow, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to strengthen its international defense ties, meeting with representatives from Vietnam, Laos, Mali, Myanmar, and the Central African Republic, and signing a military cooperation agreement with Laos. The Russian state arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, announced plans to sign further international agreements during the forum. Additionally, Russia is revoking licenses from foreign companies that repair Soviet military equipment, aiming to prevent the transfer of such equipment to Ukraine. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger noted that Russian defense industries are prioritizing domestic military needs over foreign exports, focusing on fulfilling the Russian government’s defense orders.
Major General Leonid Kasinsky from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense and Colonel Mojtaba Abdolmaleki from the Iranian General Staff met to discuss media cooperation between Belarus and Iran.
The Path To Peace
Ukraine will host its first online thematic conference focused on energy security, a key point in its peace formula, this August, announced Andriy Yermak, head of the Presidential Office. This follows Ukraine’s first global peace summit in Switzerland, which saw 87 countries and international institutions endorse a peace plan that includes urgent energy security measures amid ongoing Russian attacks that have caused significant power shortages. These thematic conferences aim to elaborate on specific aspects of Ukraine’s peace proposal, ensuring readiness for the upcoming autumn-winter season and coordinating international efforts to rebuild and protect Ukraine’s energy sector. Notably, Russia has declined participation in a planned second peace summit set to occur in the Global South, likely in the Middle East.
Russian officials, including First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky, continue to portray Ukraine as the aggressor, claiming Ukraine opted for military escalation in Kursk Oblast. Polyansky stated that Ukraine deserves “total defeat and unconditional capitulation.” This rhetoric supports the Kremlin’s position that seeks a resolution in which Ukraine capitulates fully, while suggesting any opposing Russian statements aim to coax the West into compromising Ukraine’s sovereignty.
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) continues its campaign to delegitimize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming on August 13 that “US elites” plan to replace him with a more compliant figure, suggesting former Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov as a potential successor. This narrative, aimed at facilitating “peace” talks, contradicts statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has expressed disinterest in genuine negotiations with Ukraine. This aligns with the Kremlin’s “Maidan 3” operation to portray the Ukrainian government as illegitimate.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia is currently operating only five military airfields in occupied Crimea, two of which have been significantly damaged by Ukrainian strikes and are functioning minimally, according to Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk. These airfields, used since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 to launch attacks on Ukraine, have seen reduced activity due to damage sustained since the start of the full-scale invasion. The Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed strikes on the Saky airfield in July, with subsequent satellite images showing potential fire and explosion damage. Despite multiple hits on facilities like Saky, where the 43rd Fighter Aviation Regiment and aircraft such as Su-24 bombers and Su-30 fighters are based, the Russian government has not commented on the strikes.
Kursk Front – Initiative Ukraine
Ukrainian forces are advancing in Kursk Oblast, holding positions in numerous localities and capturing Russian POWs to strengthen their bargaining position. President Zelensky emphasized that the objective is to protect Ukraine’s borders and deter Russian strikes, not to seize territory. Ukrainian operations are also disrupting Russian military logistics and preventing reinforcements to Donetsk. The U.S. supports Ukraine’s actions, stating they are a legitimate defense against Russian aggression.
Ukrainian forces are making significant advances in Kursk Oblast despite Russian efforts to stabilize the frontline, with confirmed movements north and northeast of Korenovo and near Alekseevsky. Geolocated footage and reports from Russian military bloggers indicate ongoing skirmishes around Koronevo, Tolpino, and Sudzha, with notable gains including the seizure of Pogrebki. However, Russian sources claim to have repelled Ukrainian attacks at several key locations, including Giri and Plekhovo, though conflicts continue near the international border. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that as of August 13, Ukraine controls 74 settlements in the region, a significant increase from the 28 settlements claimed by Russian authorities. Zelensky emphasized the humane treatment of the “hundreds” of Russian soldiers who have surrendered, noting that their treatment surpasses what they received in their own army. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi noted additional territorial gains of 3 kilometers and 40 square kilometers. Despite intense combat and challenges in long-range capabilities, Ukraine is establishing humanitarian measures in captured areas and aims to hinder Russian military reinforcements to Donbas and curtail cross-border strikes, emphasizing the defensive nature of their actions, aligning with Ukraine’s goal to protect its citizens rather than seize territory, as stated by Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi.
On August 6, Ukrainian tanks and infantry faced no initial resistance as they crossed into the Kursk region of Russia, surprising local forces. A soldier from the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade described how his unit quickly encountered and overcame lightly armed Russian troops. Despite facing more complex defenses in the past, this incursion was marked by rapid and unimpeded movement, the first such foreign military penetration since World War II. Ukrainian forces, after securing ground, prepared for a counterattack, but instead faced aerial bombings and drone strikes. Despite these challenges, they continued to make significant advances, capturing Russian reinforcements and progressing over 30 kilometers in a week. The operation’s strategic intent appears to be capturing territory for potential future exchanges in peace negotiations and diverting Russian forces from other critical fronts in Ukraine.
The UK has denied Ukraine’s request to use Storm Shadow missiles for strikes in the Kursk region, despite repeated appeals from President Zelensky. The British government maintains that military aid is strictly for Ukraine’s defense, adhering to international law. During a visit to the UK, Zelensky sought to lift restrictions on munitions capable of hitting targets up to 250 kilometers away, aiming to disrupt Russian logistics. The decision also involves France, as the Storm Shadow missile is a joint UK-French project. Concurrently, the US has also denied Ukraine’s request to use long-range ATACMS missiles. Despite these denials, Ukraine’s recent offensive into the Kursk region marks a significant escalation, surprising Russian forces and causing extensive displacement.
Russian authorities are primarily using conscripts and regular and irregular military units from less critical frontline areas to counter the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast. These include FSB border guards, Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz, and elements of Russian forces recently redeployed from Kherson and northern Kharkiv. Additionally, motorized rifle brigades and regiments from various military districts have been moved from other Ukrainian fronts like Kupyansk and western Zaporizhia to Kursk. This strategy indicates a calculated risk by Russian command, prioritizing the response in Kursk over maintaining full strength in other less critical areas.
Ukraine’s rapid offensive into Russia’s Kursk region on August 6 caught Russian forces off guard, leading to chaos and looting by retreating troops. Videos and reports on social media depict Russian soldiers ransacking evacuated homes and a supermarket in the region. Looting has been prevalent among Russian troops since the early days of the invasion in February 2022. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin describing the offensive as a “major terrorist provocation,” the disorganized response from Russian troops has underscored issues within their ranks, including a friendly fire incident that destroyed a military column.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly appointed Alexei Dyumin, a close aide and former bodyguard, to oversee the counterterrorism operations in Kursk Oblast as of August 12. Dyumin, who is not a cabinet member nor from military or security services, was uniquely present at a critical meeting discussing regional security issues. Despite no official Kremlin confirmation, insider sources suggest Dyumin has full authority to coordinate all efforts against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk. This move has sparked speculation among Russian milbloggers about a potential military-political reshuffle and dissatisfaction with existing security measures. Dyumin’s involvement is seen as an attempt by Putin to tighten control and coordinate the response directly under presidential oversight.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations around Kharkiv City but made no territorial gains. Battles occurred north and northeast of the city, particularly near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Tykhe, and Vovchansk. The Russian military deployed additional units to Hlyboke for manpower replenishment and set up new evacuation points in Vovchansk, indicating ongoing strategic adjustments without significant progress.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting persisted along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without any confirmed changes to the frontline. While a Russian milblogger reported an advance near Tabaivka, southeast of Kupyansk, this claim remains unverified. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces launched attacks in multiple locations around Kupyansk and Kreminna but no territorial shifts were confirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russia is reportedly reallocating irregular military units from Donetsk Oblast to counter Ukrainian advancements in Kursk Oblast. Not all forces are being transferred; many remain in priority sectors like Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk due to ongoing combat needs. This redeployment may not immediately impact the tempo of Russian offensives but could influence long-term capabilities in western Donetsk. The strategy follows Russian military patterns of conducting operations in pulses across different fronts, suggesting a possible brief operational pause before intensifying efforts in these areas again.
Siversk
Ukrainian forces regained positions southeast of Siversk, countering ongoing Russian assaults in the area. Recent geolocated footage shows Ukrainian advances west of Spirne. Concurrently, Russian forces conducted offensive operations in several areas around Siversk, including northeast near Bilohorivka, east near Verkhnokamyanske, and southeast near Spirne.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, with recent geolocated footage showing progress near Klishchiivka. Continued fighting was reported near Bohdanivka and Bila Hora around Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Despite Ukraine’s ongoing operation in Kursk Oblast, fighting intensity in the Toretsk sector of Donetsk Oblast remains largely unaffected. Russian forces are continuing their assaults on Toretsk, reaching the town’s outskirts and deploying sabotage groups while increasing airstrikes to compensate for slightly reduced ground attacks. Battles are also intense in the urban area of the Pivnichne-Zalizne agglomeration. The situation in Toretsk has escalated into a major hotspot.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Toretsk without achieving changes to the frontline. Claims from Russian milbloggers indicated advances in areas south and southeast of Toretsk, including Zalizne, Niu York, Pivnichne, and Panteleymonivka. Ongoing fighting was reported in these regions. Ukrainian military observers noted the presence of various Russian motorized rifle brigades actively operating in these directions.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made advances east of Pokrovsk, with reports indicating potential control over Ivanivka. Additional movements were noted near Hrodivka, Serhiivka, Zhelanne, and Svyrydonivka. Offensive operations also occurred near Malynivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Novooleksandrivka, Kalynove, Yelyzavetivka, Hrodivka, Novozhelanne, Skuchne, Ptyche, and Zhelanne.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Donetsk City, with geolocated footage showing movements in eastern Kostyantynivka and a repelled assault south of Kostyantynivka. Fierce fighting was reported near Vodyane along the Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar highway. Additional offensive operations occurred near Kalynove, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane. Drone operations by the Russian “Kaira” Detachment were noted near Kostyantynivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Vuhledar in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Zaporizhia Line
Ukrainian forces made slight advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with recent footage showing movement northwest of Verbove. Continued fighting was reported near Novoandriivka. Elements of the Russian Airborne Regiment are active in the Orikhiv area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that it cannot confirm the cause of the recent fire at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Russian-occupied Enerhodar. Russia expressed dissatisfaction with the IAEA’s lack of a definitive assessment and hopes for a condemnation of Ukraine, which Russia accuses of causing the fire with a drone strike on August 11.
The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attacks in eastern Kherson Oblast.
Ukraine News
Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine. They launched two ballistic missiles from Voronezh Oblast and 38 Shahed drones from Kursk Oblast and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Ukrainian forces shot down 30 Shahed drones across multiple regions including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, and Kherson. Additional strikes targeted infrastructure in Sumy City and the Myrhorod Air Base in Poltava Oblast. The authenticity of the footage showing the aftermath in Myrhorod is unverified.
Despite ongoing military actions in Kursk Oblast, Kyiv and Moscow will continue gas transmissions to Europe. Ukrainian forces recently took control of Sudzha, a key town with a gas-intake station that channels gas from Russia through Ukraine to Europe. Gazprom reports that gas flow through Sudzha remains stable at about 42.4 million cubic meters daily. However, any potential damage to the facility risks halting these supplies.
Ukraine has sentenced Kremlin propagandist and former Russia Today director Anton Krasovsky to five years in prison, in absentia, for advocating the murder of Ukrainian children and calling for the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s constitutional order. Convicted for his remarks on a Russian state-run channel, where he stated that Ukrainian children should be “burned and drowned” and Ukraine “should not exist,” Krasovsky faces charges including public calls for genocide. This follows a previous 5-year sentence issued in February 2023 for supporting Russia’s invasion and similar genocidal remarks. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) knows his whereabouts abroad and seeks to extradite him. Despite an initial apology, Krasovsky reaffirmed his extremist views in May 2023.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 48 hours:
DEATHS: 6 INJURIES: 25
- In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks resulted in the deaths of five civilians and injuries to four others. Specific incidents included the shelling of Ukrainsk which killed two and injured one. Additionally, attacks in Kostiantynivka killed two and wounded one, while a strike in Toretsk resulted in one death and two injuries.
- In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian attacks injured three people and caused shock in four children. Specific incidents included injuries to a 75-year-old woman in Bohodukhiv and a 49-year-old woman in Zabrody. Additionally, a 72-year-old man was wounded in a drone attack on Vovchansk.
- Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast resulted in one death and at least 17 injuries, including two children. The attacks damaged seven high-rise buildings, 36 houses, a gas pipeline, and additional structures. (Russian War Crime)
- A Russian missile strike in Sumy injured one person and damaged a hospital and energy infrastructure, leaving parts of the city without electricity and gas. (Russian War Crime)
Ukraine’s Allies
Latvia is sending an additional 500 combat drones to Ukraine, as part of its commitment to an international drone coalition. Latvia, co-leading the coalition with the U.K., is also investing 20 million euros this year into the coalition and a similar amount in developing its own drone capabilities. The coalition, which includes countries like Germany, Canada, and Sweden, was formed in January to enhance Ukraine’s UAV arsenal. Ukraine, on its part, is boosting its domestic drone production to target manufacturing at least 1 million drones in 2024.
U.S. President Joe Biden described Ukraine’s ongoing offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast as presenting “a real dilemma” for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Biden’s remarks, made in New Orleans, marked his first public comments on the operation, emphasizing ongoing communication with Ukraine. The U.S. was unaware of the offensive until it commenced, but has stated the action aligns with American policy, which supports Ukraine’s right to defend itself. U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal have vocally supported the offensive, advocating for fewer restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons by Ukraine. Currently, U.S. policy allows limited use of American arms for strikes near the Russian border.
The Austrian Energy Ministry has highlighted the significant risk of a supply failure due to the country’s continued dependence on Russian natural gas, despite overall European efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy. Russia has already cut much of its gas transit to Europe, impacting countries like Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia. In response, Austria is planning to replace Russian gas with supplies from Italy and Germany, aiming to end its dependency by 2027. However, if alternatives are not secured, Austria’s gas storage could drop to 15% by 2026. The government is set to present a detailed energy transition roadmap before the national elections on September 29, aiming for a cessation of Russian gas imports by January 2025 and a storage capacity target of 60% by 2027.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Refugees from Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian forces launched a surprise incursion on August 6, will be resettled in Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Acting Governor Alexey Smirnov announced plans to use sanatoriums and boarding houses along the Azov Sea for temporary accommodation. Additionally, Kyiv’s forces have made inroads into Belgorod Oblast, causing approximately 11,000 residents to flee. Volunteers are assisting with resettlement efforts in Kursk, while 75% of southern Ukraine, including major cities like Melitopol and Berdiansk, remains under Russian control.
Russia News
The governor of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov, declared a state of emergency due to severe damage and tension from ongoing Ukrainian attacks. This declaration came as Ukrainian drones targeted the region, causing a fire and damage to an apartment building in Shebekino, although no casualties were reported.
According to the Russian outlet Mozhem Obyasnit, citing the Ministry of Internal Affairs, bribery cases in Russia have increased by 1.5 times since 2021, particularly within the army and defense sectors. The first half of 2024 saw a 55% increase in bribe acceptance and a 51% rise in bribe-giving compared to 2021. Transparency International reports that corruption is significantly higher in Russia’s defense sector than in other areas. This uptick in corruption is attributed to the military demands during Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, efforts to address corruption have led to the arrests of several senior defense officials.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) detained an employee of the Southern Military District on suspicion of treason for allegedly passing information to the Ukrainian military. Footage of her arrest was also released.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian government is promoting initiatives to recruit volunteers for military service among individuals facing criminal charges. A new bill proposed by the Russian Supreme Court would allow officials to exempt individuals from criminal liability if they are mobilized or voluntarily enlist in the military during their trial. This exemption could also apply to convicts whose sentences have not yet become legally binding, including those at the appeal stage.
Russian regions are grappling with meeting military recruitment targets for the war in Ukraine, with many failing to fill over a third of their quotas amidst the highest troop losses since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. In Moscow, despite recruiting over 26,000 volunteers in 2024, 90% face financial hardships, and the majority are not motivated by ideology, with volunteer interest plummeting from 3,000 in August 2023 to just 1,000 by June 2024. Many recruits in Moscow hail from other regions or are foreign nationals from Central Asia. Currently, 43,000 Muscovites are deployed in Ukraine, with an additional 23,000 expected to volunteer by year-end. The Russian army’s recruitment struggles have worsened following Ukraine’s recent incursions into Kursk and Belgorod oblasts, prompting considerations of a new mobilization by year’s end and an increase in the sign-on bonus for new recruits to 400,000 rubles ($4,600) by President Vladimir Putin. These measures, alongside other financial incentives, aim to bolster enlistment and address the critical shortage of reserves, complicating the military’s capacity to sustain operations in Ukraine and intensifying competition for labor across the Russian economy.
During the “Army-2024” forum, a representative from the Tula Instrument Design Bureau, part of Rostec, revealed the development of the “Kh-BPLA” missile. Designed to be launched from drones, this missile targets light armored vehicles and has a range of four to eight kilometers. It features a six-kilogram warhead and employs laser guidance similar to the Krasnopol artillery system.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has ordered the transfer of Belarusian military equipment to reinforce Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. This move comes as an urgent response to Russian requests amid equipment shortages and battlefield losses. The equipment, taken directly from combat units rather than stockpiles, reflects the depletion of Belarusian reserves. Meanwhile, despite claims from Minsk about bolstering defenses along the Ukrainian border, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service has observed no significant increase in Belarusian troop deployments, describing these claims as part of an information influence campaign.
Controlling The Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian authorities fined Telegram and WhatsApp four million rubles each for not removing “prohibited” content. This follows a similar fine on Telegram in November 2023 for failing to delete content deemed false or destabilizing about the Russian Armed Forces. Additionally, the Russian government is reportedly planning stricter censorship measures on social media, including mandatory user verification and content moderation rules.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com