Summary of the day: Ukrainian troops made a slight advancement southeast of Sudzha within the Kursk Oblast, continuing to pressure Russian forces and prompting Russia to reallocate additional resources and manpower to the region. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted and struck a Russian oil depot in Rostov Oblast, which is crucial for supplying oil to Russian military operations. Despite ongoing intense engagements, including Russian advances near Kreminna and Donetsk City and Ukrainian regains near Siversk, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied any plans for negotiations involving a moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure.
Picture of the day:
Residents attempt to clean a damaged area after Russian forces struck outside of Kyiv with two ballistic missiles. (Danylo Antoniuk/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Baku for discussions with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, marking his first trip to the capital since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The talks aim to address international and regional issues, focusing on strengthening Russia’s ties with oil-rich Azerbaijan and addressing cooperation within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), especially as relations with Armenia deteriorate. Amidst this backdrop, Azerbaijan has expanded its energy exports to Europe and is in discussions with the EU and Ukraine about future natural gas supplies. Meanwhile, Armenia is moving toward the West, considering EU membership and distancing itself from Russia, highlighted by joint military exercises with the United States and frustrations over Russian “peacekeepers” in Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts. Despite its complex relations, Azerbaijan continues to engage with Ukraine, providing significant humanitarian aid while also maintaining a political and military friendship with Russia.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded to allegations surrounding the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions by urging the project’s initiators to apologize and remain silent. The accusations intensified when a former BND head hinted at Warsaw’s involvement, which Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski attributed to Moscow’s influence. Amid these developments, German authorities issued an arrest warrant for Ukrainian national Volodymyr Zhuravlov, suspected of leading the sabotage. Despite significant evidence and the identification of two other Ukrainian suspects involved in the September 2022 Baltic Sea operation, no Ukrainian government involvement has been proven, and Kyiv denies any connection. This case, marked by international intrigue and conflicting reports, remains under intense scrutiny as Polish authorities reportedly failed to act on a European arrest warrant, with the suspect last seen crossing into Ukraine in early July. The incident has reignited debates over European energy security and geopolitical tensions.
The Path To Peace
Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, refuted claims that Russia was planning negotiations with Ukraine and Qatar about a moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure. She emphasized that no such talks were disrupted as none were scheduled or underway. This response came after a Washington Post report suggested that the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast led Russia to postpone planned discussions in Doha.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Kursk Front – Initiative Ukraine
Ukrainian forces made marginal gains in Kursk Oblast, specifically southeast of Sudzha, amidst ongoing regional conflicts. Unconfirmed reports suggest they entered Otruba and are operating near Tetkino, with concurrent Russian and Ukrainian military actions including strategic advancements near Korenevo and Martynovka. Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mykola Oleshchuk, reported significant strikes including the destruction of a key bridge over the Seim River using HIMARS missiles, and another bridge in Glushkovo, while the Zvannoye bridge was targeted but remains functional. These operations, now in their 10th day, have affected Russian logistics and led to Ukrainian claims of 1,150 square kilometers and 82 settlements including Sudzha, aimed at safeguarding Ukrainian territory from cross-border attacks and managing Russian troop movements. Despite these military activities, there are no indications of impending negotiations or easing tensions in the area.
Ukraine’s advances in Kursk Oblast have prompted Russia to redeploy around 5,000 troops from various regions, including Donetsk, to bolster defenses. This includes units from the Donetsk People’s Republic and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Russia’s strategy aims to contain the Ukrainian incursion and prepare for a potential counteroffensive to reclaim territory, which may require significantly more Russian forces, estimated up to 20,000 personnel.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched ground attacks north and northeast of Kharkiv City, specifically near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk, without making any confirmed advancements. Ukrainian military reports indicate a slowdown in Russian assault activities near Starytsya and efforts by Russian troops to strengthen their positions in the area.
Colonel Vitaly Sarantsev of the Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces reported that Russian forces reduced glide bomb strikes from 30-40 per day weeks ago to 1-4 per day recently. He suggested this change could reflect priorities in other directions or Ukrainian strikes on Russian rear areas, partially supported by NASA FIRMS data.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, particularly near Kreminna and northern Makiivka. Additional attacks occurred southeast of Kupyansk and in areas northwest, west, and southwest of Kreminna indicating ongoing offensive operations.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Ukrainian forces regained positions near Siversk, particularly on Ivano-Darivka’s eastern outskirts, suggesting a weakening Russian hold on the area. Concurrently, Russian forces launched attacks east, southeast, and south of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar without confirmed advances. Operations extended north, east, southeast, and south of Chasiv Yar. Despite claims of marginal gains near Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, and Ivanivske by Russian milbloggers, these have not been visually confirmed.
Toretsk
Russian forces intensified their offensive near Toretsk, claiming control over key areas including most of Niu York and strategic positions in Zalizne and Toretsk. Despite these assertions, there is no visual confirmation of these territorial gains. Ukrainian forces repelled a significant attack near Pivnichne and Zalizne, destroying 10 armored vehicles. Russian military activities also continued around Toretsk and Dyliivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces claimed to have captured several settlements in the Pokrovsk direction, including Svyrydonivka, Zavitne, Mezhove, and Skuchne. Additional advances were reported near Zhuravka, Mykolaivka, and Zhelanne. However, these claims lack visual confirmation. Russian military operations also extended to areas east and southwest of Pokrovsk.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces reported advancements southwest of Donetsk City, including seizing parts near the Pivdennodonbaska No. 1 Mine and south of Kostyantynivka. However, these claims lack confirmed changes to the frontline and visual verification. Continued Russian offensive operations occurred west and southwest of Donetsk City.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces carried out offensive operations near Rozdolne in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Zaporizhia Line
There were no reports of fighting in western Zaporizhia Oblast from either Russian or Ukrainian sources.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks in the Dnipro direction, affecting east Kherson Oblast and Dnipro River delta islands.
Ukraine News
Russian forces conducted extensive missile and drone attacks across Ukraine throughout the past week, deploying over 40 missiles, 750 glide bombs, and 200 drones, as detailed by President Zelensky. Although Ukrainian defenses intercepted many of these, some resulted in significant damage, including a fire at an electrical substation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and damage to homes in Kyiv Oblast. Today, Kyiv’s air defenses successfully countered another coordinated attack, intercepting North Korean ballistic missiles and various drones—this marked the third such attack on the capital in August, each occurring at six-day intervals. The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed the interception of two North Korean ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and eight kamikaze drones during this attack, which also caused damage to residential buildings in Kyiv Oblast, although no casualties were reported. (Russian War Crimes)
President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his nightly address, highlighted the success of Ukrainian forces in destroying Russian equipment near Toretsk and emphasized the strategic creation of a buffer zone in Kursk Oblast. He noted the critical importance of the upcoming weeks for diplomatic efforts globally to strengthen Ukraine’s position. Despite significant progress, including control over 1,000 square kilometers and over 80 settlements in Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces face challenges such as shortages in manpower and equipment. Additionally, delays in U.S. military aid have impacted Ukraine’s budget, with a $50 billion loan agreed upon by G7 leaders to support military expenses, to be financed by frozen Russian assets. Zelensky also referenced updates from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on the status of POWs and military logistics.
Ukraine will resume scheduled blackouts due to increased electricity demand amid hot weather. This follows a three-week hiatus since the last cuts on July 29, which were similarly prompted by a heatwave increasing air conditioning usage. Ukrenergo has managed recent energy deficits with emergency measures but anticipates persistent shortages next week, emphasizing the need for energy conservation. Scheduled power cuts allow residents to plan ahead, although durations can extend unpredictably. Repairs on nuclear power units are underway to improve the situation as Ukraine prepares for winter.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 5 INJURIES: 8+
- Russian forces launched attacks in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the deaths of four individuals and injuries to four others. In Myrnohrad, an artillery strike killed an 83-year-old woman and injured a 56-year-old woman, while a drone attack claimed the life of a 44-year-old man and wounded a 41-year-old man. Additionally, artillery fire in Toretsk killed a 67-year-old woman and injured her 64-year-old husband. In the village of Rozlyv, a 25-year-old man was killed, and a 23-year-old resident was injured. (Russian War Crimes)
- A Russian aerial bomb attack on Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast resulted in one death and three injuries, including an 11-year-old girl. The attack, which used a KAB guided bomb, targeted five homes and killed a 33-year-old man while seriously injuring his daughter. Two other adults were also injured. Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, present during the attack, condemned it as “Russian terrorism against peaceful residents.” On the same day, the region experienced 222 explosions from 89 separate attacks, with additional injuries reported in the village of Yunakivka from a similar bombing. (Russian War Crimes)
Ukraine’s Allies
The German Foreign Ministry countered reports that Berlin will cease aid to Ukraine next year, stating that while future bilateral assistance may shift towards international programs, Germany remains committed to supporting Ukraine. This clarification follows media claims of reduced aid due to budgetary constraints, which the German Finance Ministry disputed, noting readiness to consider additional short-term funds pending formal requests and parliamentary approval. Despite challenges, Germany, as Ukraine’s second-largest military donor after the U.S., continues to support Kyiv robustly, including recognizing equipment supplied to Ukraine as Ukrainian property following its use in the recent Kursk incursion.
On CBS’ “Face the Nation”, U.S. Senator Mark Kelly supported Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, suggesting it could shift the war’s momentum in Ukraine’s favor. Kelly endorsed the use of U.S.-supplied weapons for this operation, noting it has forced 130,000 Russians to evacuate and significantly impacted Russian President Vladimir Putin. Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal also expressed support during a Kyiv visit, emphasizing the strategic importance of the incursion. Concerns about weapon supply limits have affected U.S. policy on arms usage in the region. President Joe Biden remarked that the operation poses a dilemma for Putin. Ukraine claims significant territorial gains in Kursk, including the destruction of key bridges, disrupting Russian logistics.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces targeted the “Kavkaz” oil depot in Proletarsk, Rostov Oblast, causing significant damage and two large smoke plumes. Rostov’s governor claimed Russian defenses downed a Ukrainian drone, attributing a fire at a nearby facility to falling debris, a claim met with criticism from Russian commentators.
Rosatom, a Russian state nuclear energy company, channels “hundreds of millions in profits” through its Dutch subsidiary, Uranium One Cooperative, according to Dutch media NOS. Controlling over 40% of the global uranium market and 17% of international reactor fuel, Rosatom continues operations despite U.S. sanctions, with the EU not imposing similar measures. The subsidiary, active in Kazakhstan and Tanzania, funnels profits through the Netherlands to Russia, with $240.6 million reported in 2022 alone. These operations contribute significantly to the Russian treasury, with Rosatom paying over 3.1 billion euros in taxes last year, yet it remains unaffected by European sanctions.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A Russian milblogger reported that Russia is increasingly using drones, including expensive Mavic models, to counter Ukraine’s cheaper FPV and “Baba Yaga” hexacopter drones. Russia is also developing anti-drone nets to reduce the cost disparity in drone usage.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claims to be bolstering military forces along the Ukrainian border, citing recent airspace violations by Ukraine. He announced plans to deploy over 20 battalion tactical groups without specifying a date and attributed the military shift to Ukrainian provocations. Despite these statements, there’s no evidence of the significant troop movements described, and while the rhetoric supports potential escalation, it’s unlikely Belarus will directly engage in the conflict with Ukraine.
Controlling The Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian milbloggers alleged that Ukrainian forces detained male civilians in southern Goncharovka, citing footage that shows the detainees were actually Russian military conscripts in civilian clothes.
Russian officials, including Rosatom’s Alexei Likhachev, claimed Ukrainian forces might target the Kursk and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants to provoke a radiological scare. However, there’s no evidence of Ukrainian operations near Kursk NPP, and Russian forces have historically compromised the safety of Zaporizhzhia NPP since March 2022.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com