Summary of the Day:
The conflict in Ukraine intensified significantly today as Russian forces advanced across multiple fronts, including the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, Kupyansk, west of Kreminna, and in the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar directions. This military progress comes amid Russia’s controversial deployment of North Korean troops to the battlefield, marking a major escalation in the conflict that now involves three nuclear powers.
Zakarpattia Oblast, where I live, was targeted for only the second time since the war began – two missiles were successfully intercepted, and one drone crashed in a forested area. Fortunately, there were no casualties in the Zakarpattia attack.
In response to potential US authorization for Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against Russian and North Korean military targets in Kursk Oblast, the Kremlin has issued strong warnings while continuing to militarize its government structure. The Russian Ministry of Defense is expanding its domestic control by implementing the “Time of Heroes” program, placing war veterans in government positions, and has begun illegally conscripting Ukrainian youth in occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts face significant hurdles as the Kremlin rejected Turkey’s proposed peace plan for the G20 summit, refusing to consider any compromise including a freeze of current frontlines. While the US contemplates allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS for limited strikes within Russia, French and British officials clarified that their SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles remain restricted from such use, highlighting the complex web of international military support for Ukraine.
Picture of the Day:
Police officers from the evacuation group ‘White Angels’ evacuate civilians in Myrnohrad, Ukraine. (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The reported US authorization for Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles in Kursk Oblast, particularly against Russian and North Korean forces, represents a significant policy shift from previous restrictions on Western-supplied weapons being used on Russian territory. This development has intensified global tensions, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accusing the outgoing US administration of escalation and Russian lawmakers warning it could trigger World War III. While neither Ukraine nor the US has officially confirmed the authorization, with Ukrainian President Zelensky making only indirect comments on November 17, US Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer countered Russian accusations by highlighting Russia’s own escalation through North Korean troop deployment and infrastructure strikes against Ukraine. According to Axios, this authorization, occurring in Biden’s final months in office and considered legal under international law, may specifically aim to discourage North Korea from sending additional troops to Russia. Despite warnings of an “adequate and tangible” response from Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova and President Putin suggesting such strikes would be viewed as NATO involvement, Russia historically hasn’t followed through on such “red line” warnings. As US officials indicate Ukraine may conduct its first long-range strikes soon, this situation has transformed a regional conflict into a complex crisis involving three nuclear powers, potentially threatening global stability as the transition to the incoming administration approaches.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 15 has sparked international concern. Polish President Andrzej Duda criticized the conversation as “a mistake,” suggesting it wasn’t coordinated with allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that this communication could open a “Pandora’s box,” potentially leading to more unauthorized diplomatic exchanges with Russia. The call, their first in nearly two years, included Scholz urging Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine. Previous peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in March 2022 failed due to Russian ultimatums and the discovery of war crimes in liberated Ukrainian territories. This development raises concerns about maintaining a united diplomatic front against Russian aggression.
Russia’s attempt to expand control in Georgia’s occupied Abkhazia region has triggered a significant political crisis. President Aslan Bzhania offered his conditional resignation following mass protests in the capital Sukhumi against a proposed law allowing Russians to purchase property in the region. The demonstrations, which began November 15, led to protesters storming government buildings. Bzhania’s resignation is contingent on protesters withdrawing from government property, with Vice President Badra Gunba serving as acting president. This development highlights growing tensions between Russia’s expansionist policies and local resistance in the internationally recognized Georgian territory, potentially destabilizing regional peace and security.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met with Chinese Ambassador Zhang Wenchuan to discuss expanding their military cooperation, potentially adding another layer of complexity to international relations given Belarus’s close alliance with Russia during its invasion of Ukraine.
The Path to Peace
Turkey’s potential peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly to be presented by President Erdogan at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, has already been rejected by Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as “unacceptable.” According to Bloomberg, the proposal includes freezing current frontlines, postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership for 10 years (though Turkish Foreign Ministry sources deny this aspect), establishing an internationally monitored demilitarized buffer zone in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region with international peacekeepers, and postponing decisions about Russian-occupied territories. Neither Russian President Putin (due to an ICC arrest warrant) nor Ukrainian President Zelensky (not invited) will attend the summit, though Zelensky has indicated Ukraine must pursue diplomatic solutions to end the war by 2025. While Turkish officials view it as a “realistic approach” to achieving a ceasefire and European leaders including Germany’s Scholz and France’s Macron show renewed interest in diplomatic engagement, Peskov reaffirmed that Putin’s conditions for ending the war – which essentially demand Ukraine’s complete surrender – remain unchanged. A ceasefire along current lines would likely only benefit Russia, giving it time to strengthen its military and further mobilize Russian society against Ukraine before potentially launching future attacks.
Security experts warn that protecting Ukraine’s airspace from Russian attacks could become a major challenge for President-elect Trump’s plan to quickly end the war. Since July 2024, Russia has launched over 9,600 missiles and nearly 14,000 drones at Ukraine, including devastating strikes on a Kyiv children’s hospital and a Poltava military institute graduation ceremony. While Ukraine currently intercepts 70-80% of drones and up to half of missiles, establishing a comprehensive no-fly zone would require significant NATO involvement, particularly U.S. support. European experts note that such protection would be unprecedented in scale and complexity, especially without American participation, making it a crucial factor in any future peace negotiations.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) confirmed that Russia has been using CS tear gas in Ukraine, with evidence from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Ukrainian military has documented over 4,600 cases of Russian gas attacks since 2022, including 323 in November alone. Russia typically uses drones to drop gas grenades into Ukrainian trenches, forcing soldiers into the open where they become vulnerable to artillery and drone attacks. Ukraine faces challenges identifying many of these chemical agents due to a lack of sophisticated detection equipment. The attacks have resulted in at least three Ukrainian deaths and nearly 2,100 soldiers seeking medical care. Both the U.S. and U.K. have imposed sanctions on Russian military units and companies involved in these chemical weapon attacks.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Russian forces advanced in northern Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, specifically around Malaya Loknya. While Russian sources claimed additional advances near Nizhny Klin, the Olgovka forest, and Martynovka, these claims remain unverified. According to Ukrainian military spokesperson Colonel Vadym Mysnyk, Russian forces are conducting attacks with small infantry groups when equipment isn’t available, and their drone operations are currently limited by weather conditions. The area is experiencing muddy roads that are affecting military movements.
A Ukrainian soldier reported that Russia has positioned approximately 4,000 troops and 100 armored vehicles in Kursk Oblast, including newly arrived units from the 76th Airborne Division. These forces include troops potentially transferred from Zaporizhia Oblast, though it’s unclear whether these are entirely new deployments or a reorganization of existing forces in the area.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked areas north and northeast of Kharkiv City, specifically near Vysoka Yaruha, Vovchansk, and Starytsya, but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Yevheniy Romanov reported that Russians are attacking in small groups and have increased airstrikes in the region. Near Lyptsi, Russian forces are using advanced camouflage systems and fog cover for their assaults, making it difficult for Ukrainian drones to detect them, though Ukrainian forces are countering with AI technology.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna on November 18. Video evidence confirms Russian advances in eastern Kupyansk along Dzerzhynskoho Street and southeast of Yampolivka. Heavy fighting continues in Kupyansk’s Zaoskillya district. Russian forces also attacked several settlements including Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zahryzove, Kolisnykivka, Novoyehorivka, Tverdokhlibove, Cherneshchyna, Novolyubivka, Hrekivka, and Terny, though without confirmed success.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Recent Russian military advances have been reported near Siversk, with forces moving south of Bilohorivka. Russian operations continued around Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske. Ukrainian forces claim to have repelled Russian vehicles in the area.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched offensives near Chasiv Yar and Bila Hora making no advances. The Russian forces stopped a Ukrainian counterattack near the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka making no confirmed advances.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, gaining ground northwest of Selydove and north of Petrivka. They continued operations around several settlements including Promin, Krutyi Yar, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Novooleksiivka, Hryhorivka, and Pustynka. The Russian military claims to have captured Novooleksiivka, while Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted an unsuccessful counterattack near Novohrodivka.
President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. During his visit, he met with the 25th Airborne Brigade and presented awards to soldiers. Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin described Pokrovsk as “one of the hottest spots” on the front line. The town’s potential loss to advancing Russian forces would significantly impact Ukraine’s eastern defense capabilities. Zelensky, who has previously visited critical areas like Bakhmut and Avdiivka (now Russian-occupied), stated, “It is only thanks to the strength of the soldiers that the east is not completely occupied by Russia.”
Kurakhove
Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Kurakhove, including Nova Illinka, Berestky, Sontsivka, Voznesenka, and Maksymilyanivka. They claim advances near Zorya, though unconfirmed, and are reportedly attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces north of Kurakhove. Ukrainian commanders report Russian forces launch 4-5 daily assaults while suffering heavy casualties.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced near Vuhledar, gaining ground west of Dalne, in southern Trudove, and southwest of Kostiantynopolske. They continued attacks around several settlements including Uspenivka, Rozdolne, Yelyzavetivka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces launched attacks near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border. The assaults targeted the settlements of Makarivka, Novodarivka, and Rivnopil in the area around Velyka Novosilka, but failed to gain any confirmed territory.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces launched ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast focusing on Novoandriivka near Robotyne. While Russian sources claimed advances near Nesteryanka, Bilohirya, Novopokrovka, and Mala Tokmachka, no changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast but neither side made any confirmed territorial gains.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched multiple attacks on Ukraine using Iskander-M missiles, Kh-59 cruise missiles, and Shahed drones. Two devastating strikes hit civilian areas: one in Sumy City killed 10 people and injured 51, while another in Odesa City killed 10 and injured 47. Ukrainian forces intercepted eight drones over Poltava, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv regions, while three others were disrupted by electronic countermeasures. Of particular concern, Zakarpattia Oblast, where I live, was targeted for only the second time since the war began – two missiles were successfully intercepted, and one drone crashed in a forested area. Fortunately, there were no casualties in the Zakarpattia attack.
President Volodymyr Zelensky will present a new 10-point “internal resilience plan” to parliament tomorrow, focusing on domestic solutions including front-line situations, military-industrial complex, economy, finance, and regional development. This plan complements, rather than replaces, his existing five-point victory plan aimed at international partners. The new initiative comes as Ukraine faces Russian military advances and uncertain Western support, with some countries hesitant to support certain aspects of the earlier plan, such as Ukraine’s NATO membership. Zelensky has indicated the plan will be developed with input from Ukrainian civil society and business sectors.
Ukraine’s economy grew by 4.2% in the first 10 months of 2024, according to the Economy Ministry. This growth, led by construction, transportation, and manufacturing sectors, marks a significant recovery from the 29.1% GDP decline in 2022 following Russia’s invasion. The improvement is attributed to housing reconstruction programs, restored Black Sea trade, and increased defense production. While October showed a 1.3% year-over-year growth, slightly lower agricultural output due to early harvesting affected the monthly figures. The economy had previously shown strong recovery in 2023 with 5.3% growth, supported by government programs and international aid.
Former kindergarten teacher Natalia Hrabarchuk, now serving in Ukraine’s Western Air Command, successfully shot down a Russian cruise missile using a shoulder-launched anti-aircraft weapon during a massive Russian attack. Hrabarchuk’s remarkable achievement came after five months of intensive training, making her one of the few operators to successfully down a sophisticated Kh-101 cruise missile with the older Soviet-era Igla defense system. You can watch the video here.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 21 INJURIES: 139
A Russian missile attack on the city of Sumy killed 11 people, including two children aged 9 and 14, and injured 84 others, with 11 children among the wounded. The initial strike hit a nine-story residential building, followed by a second missile that struck energy infrastructure, causing power outages in parts of the city.
A Russian ballistic missile struck central Odesa, Ukraine, killing 10 people, including 7 police officers and a medic, and injuring 55 others, including four children. The Iskander-M missile was intercepted by Ukrainian air defense but fell into the Primorsky district’s residential area, damaging apartment buildings, a university dormitory, and an administrative building.
Russian forces struck the Ukrainian port city of Odesa with an Iskander-M ballistic missile killing 10 people, including seven police officers and a medic, and injuring 55 others. The attack damaged residential buildings, a university, and other civilian infrastructure in the city’s Primorsky district. Among the wounded were four children and 14 law enforcement officers. The strike came shortly after Russia’s large-scale attacks on Ukraine on November 17 and missile strikes on the city of Sumy earlier on November 18. Local authorities declared November 19 a day of mourning in Odesa.
The aftermath of a Russian attack against Sumy, Ukraine. (Suspilne Sumy)
Ukraine’s Allies
Recent reports about US authorization for Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, particularly against gathering Russian and North Korean forces, have drawn varied international responses. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock supported the US decision, with Baerbock emphasizing Ukraine’s right to strike launch sites directly. However, the authorization does not extend to French SCALP and British Storm Shadow missiles (250km range), which still require joint approval from all three countries due to their American technology components. French newspaper Le Figaro has retracted its earlier claim about France and Britain allowing such strikes, clarifying that discussions are ongoing.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz maintains his refusal to supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles (500km range), which exceed the capabilities of US ATACMS (300km) and UK/French Storm Shadow missiles. This policy could shift after Germany’s February 2025 elections, as both leading opposition candidates – Friedrich Merz of CDU/CSU and Robert Habeck of the Greens – have pledged to approve the missile delivery if elected. The US authorization coincided with Russia’s massive November 17 attack on Ukraine, involving 120 missiles and 90 drones, which damaged energy facilities despite Ukrainian forces intercepting over 140 projectiles.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, known for pro-Moscow views, criticized the US decision as an “unprecedented escalation” meant to disrupt peace talks, instructing Slovak officials not to support it in any international forum. His stance aligns with Russia’s position, as Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused the US of provoking war escalation, while Russian lawmakers warned of World War III potential, and President Putin suggested such strikes would imply NATO involvement.
Germany will supply Ukraine with 4,000 AI-powered kamikaze drones, developed by Munich-based Helsing, starting December 2024. The drones, nicknamed “Mini-Taurus,” can operate independently despite GPS jamming and have four times the range of current Ukrainian kamikaze drones, with enough power to destroy tanks. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed the delivery, which follows a contract signed in September. The drones are reportedly cheaper than American Switchblades or Russian Lancets and are currently being tested in eastern Ukraine.
German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, the Green Party’s candidate for chancellor in the upcoming February 2025 snap elections, has pledged to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine if elected. This stance contrasts with current Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s position, who has refused to provide these weapons despite Germany being Ukraine’s second-largest military donor. The German-Swedish Taurus missiles have a range of 500 kilometers, exceeding the capabilities of similar weapons provided by the U.S., UK, and France. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the CDU/CSU, currently leading polls at 33%, also supports sending the missiles, though with conditions.
The European Union has expanded sanctions against Iran and three Russian shipping companies in response to Tehran’s military support of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The new measures include a transaction ban on ports and locks used for transferring Iranian drones, missiles, and related technology to Russia. The sanctions specifically target the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, its director, and Russian companies MG Flot, VTS Broker, and Arapax, which have been transporting Iranian weapons, including Fath-360 ballistic missiles and drone components, across the Caspian Sea to Russia. Iran’s ports authority has dismissed the sanctions as “baseless.”
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russia is illegally conscripting Ukrainian youth from occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions as part of its Fall 2024 draft. Video footage shows conscripts being forced to pledge loyalty to Russia at a military base in occupied Simferopol, Crimea. According to Ukrainian officials, these conscripts are being sent to Bataysk and will serve in Russia’s Southern Military District in Crimea, Rostov Oblast, and Krasnodar Krai. This forced conscription violates the Geneva Convention, which prohibits occupying powers from forcing civilians to serve in their military.
Russia News
UNESCO condemned Russia’s November 15 strikes on Odesa’s historic center, which killed one person and injured 10 others. The organization’s mission, led by Chiara Dezzi Bardeschi, arrived on November 16 to assess the damage to the World Heritage Site. Since the start of the war, Russia has destroyed over 1,000 cultural heritage sites in Ukraine, including July 2023 damage to Odesa’s Transfiguration Cathedral and an October strike on Kharkiv’s Derzhprom building. UNESCO has confirmed damage to 457 sites total, including religious sites, historical buildings, museums, monuments, libraries, and archives. The organization calls for an end to attacks on protected cultural properties.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1610
724050 |
Tanks +17
9382 |
Artillery +46
20632 |
Arm. VEH +33
19092 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is expanding its “Time of Heroes” program, which places veterans from the Ukraine invasion into government positions at all levels. Within three days of opening applications on November 15, the program received over 6,600 applications from veterans. Notable appointments include former DNR Sparta Battalion Commander Artem Zhoga as Presidential Representative to the Ural region, Yevgeny Pervyshov as Tambov Oblast governor, and tank commander Artur Orlov as chair of the youth movement “Movement of the First.”
Russia has deployed new low-cost Gerbera drones, made of plywood and polystyrene, to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. These drones, manufactured in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, cost 90% less than Iranian Shahed-136 drones while serving similar attack and reconnaissance functions. Using components from the U.S., China, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, these drones proved effective during November 16-17 strikes against Ukraine, reducing air defense interception rates. Russia’s Alabuga plant currently produces 4,500 Shahed-type drones, with plans to increase production to 6,000.
According to Ukrainian sources, Russia is reportedly using outdated Soviet P-95-300 engines in their Kh-101 cruise missiles instead of the standard TRDD-50A engines, suggesting Russia may be struggling to produce new missile engines and relying on old Soviet stockpiles.
Russia’s Allies
Belarus’s President Lukashenko met with Russian Smolensk region’s Governor Anokhin pushing for easier travel between the two countries and promoting Belarus’s manufacturing and electronics industries for potential cooperation.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com