Summary of the day: President Joe Biden approved a policy change allowing Ukraine to use US-provided GMLRS rockets to strike within Russian territory near Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces made advances near Vovchansk, while Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and in east bank Kherson Oblast. Amid these troop movements, Russian forces transferred troops to northern Kharkiv Oblast, indicating strategic priorities. Meanwhile, France may send military trainers to Ukraine, and Western countries are boosting artillery support for Ukraine. Additionally, Russia introduced a progressive income tax and continued efforts to address its demographic crisis.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
NATO lacks sufficient air defense capabilities to protect Central and Eastern Europe in the event of a full-scale attack. According to a confidential 2023 NATO defense plan, NATO can provide less than 5% of the needed air defense for this region. A senior NATO official acknowledged this gap but emphasized that improving air defense is a major priority. NATO rearmament is necessary to deter and, if needed, defeat potential Russian attacks, as threats from the Kremlin increase. Western military support for Ukraine helps push Russia’s air defense network east, reducing the threat to NATO’s eastern flank.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that supplying F-16 aircraft to Ukraine would be seen as a NATO nuclear threat. Lavrov claimed F-16s are key to NATO’s nuclear missions and vowed Russia would destroy them in Ukraine, similar to other Western-supplied equipment. This statement continues the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail to deter Western support for Ukraine.
Russian occupation troops in Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, are conducting unauthorized inspections of their armored vehicles, potentially leading to further provocations. From May 17 to June 17, these inspections violate Joint Control Commission (JCC) protocols, which require prior approval for military activities. Moldova’s delegation to the JCC condemned these actions as destabilizing and provocative, citing a recent unapproved training exercise near Bender. Similar unauthorized exercises occurred in December 2023 and April 2024.
The head of the Transnistrian delegation to the JCC, Oleg Belyakov, accused Moldovan forces of escalating the conflict and increasing militarization along the security zone. He claimed Moldovan forces are amassing heavy weaponry near Bulboaca and deploying troops without notifying the JCC. Belyakov defended Russian occupation forces’’ recent exercises as routine and criticized NATO exercises in Moldova as alarming. These accusations are seen as part of a Kremlin strategy to justify Russian actions and destabilize Moldova ahead of its potential EU accession talks and upcoming elections.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
President Joe Biden approved a policy allowing Ukraine to use US-provided GMLRS rockets to strike Russian targets near Kharkiv Oblast, but not longer-range ATACMS missiles. The permission is for counter-fire purposes against Russian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast. However, the policy still restricts Ukraine from conducting long-range strikes deeper into Russian territory. The US also allows Ukraine to use air defenses against Russian threats over Russian territory. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged lifting these restrictions entirely.
European allies are supporting Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen confirmed Denmark’s approval for using Danish-provided weapons and F-16 jets for this purpose. Norwegian Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky and sources close to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also expressed support for Ukraine’s right to strike within Russia. This policy shift is seen as crucial for Ukraine’s defense and future counteroffensive operations.
Russian sources reported Ukrainian missile and drone strikes on occupied Crimea. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have destroyed eight ATACMS missiles over the Sea of Azov and eight drones over the Black Sea. Damage from missile fragments reportedly affected two pilot boats, a car, and a railway near Kerch. The Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that a Ukrainian missile strike sank the Mechta pilot boat in Kerch.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate reported naval drone strikes on Russian military ships in Vuzka Bay, Crimea. The strikes destroyed two “Tunets” high-speed transport boats and damaged two others. These boats are typically used by Russian FSB border guards. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed they destroyed four Ukrainian naval drones in the northwestern Black Sea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces are moving troops to northern Kharkiv Oblast to focus efforts on this area, Ukrainian military officials report. They are transferring units to Strilecha-Lyptsi and Vovchansk to draw and fix Ukrainian forces. Despite these moves, Russia lacks the manpower for a full-scale offensive in the region. The strategy aims to create a buffer zone and maintain offensive momentum. However, Ukrainian defenses and potential counterattacks pose significant challenges to Russian objectives.
Lyptsi
Russian forces continued offensives near Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed. Russian sources claimed advances of up to 150 meters near Lyptsi and 700 meters south of Hlyboke, though these claims remain unverified. Fighting occurred near Lyptsi and Hlyboke in the past day.
Vovchansk
Ukrainian forces regained positions in Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, amid ongoing Russian offensives. Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian control in central Vovchansk. Russian officials claim they control half of the town, while Ukrainian sources state they hold most of it. Russian forces are using airstrikes to support their assaults. Fighting is ongoing within Vovchansk and nearby areas. Drone activity is hindering movement, forcing both sides to operate in small groups. Russian forces reportedly use foot, motorcycles, and ATVs in frontline areas.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued assaults along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed. Assaults occurred near Petropavlivka, Synkivka, Ivanivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Myasozharivka, Andriivka, Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, Terny, Torske, Dibrova, Hryhorivka, the Serebryanske forest area, and Bilohorivka. A Russian source claimed Ukrainian forces counterattacked in northern Ivanivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Rozdolivka and Vyimka, south of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made slight advances near Chasiv Yar, particularly on the northern outskirts of the Kanal Microraion. They continued assaults in the Novyi and Kanal microraions and areas near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka. Unconfirmed reports suggest advances into central Kalynove and near Andriivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka, moving along the S-051801 highway north of Netaylove. Russian sources claim advances north and south of Netaylove, seizing positions along the Karlivka Reservoir and attempting to bypass Nevelske to approach Krasnohorivka. Offensive operations continued near several locations northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported repelling Ukrainian counterattacks near Ocheretyne and Novopokrovske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced southwest of Donetsk City, reaching windbreaks northwest of Solodke. Offensive operations continued near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Volodymyrivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces reportedly advanced in Staromayorske, south of Velyka Novosilka, amid ongoing operations near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border. Russian sources claim Russian forces now control 70% of Staromayorske, though this is unconfirmed. Russian forces reportedly advanced on Urozhaine’s southern outskirts.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no changes to the frontline. Fighting occurred near Robotyne, Verbove, Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, and Novoandriivka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces made small advances in the east bank of Kherson Oblast, north of Dnipryany. They also conducted assaults near Krynky, the Oleshky Sands National Nature Park, and Nestryha Island in the Dnipro River Delta. Positional engagements in the area continued.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone strikes on Ukraine. They fired eight S-300/400 missiles at Kharkiv Oblast, 11 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast, and 32 Shahed drones from various locations. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed seven cruise missiles and all 32 drones. Russian missiles hit a children’s equestrian school in Mala Danylivka, Kharkiv Oblast, later in the day.
Ukraine’s Allies
France may soon send military trainers to Ukraine. Diplomatic sources indicate that an announcement could be made during President Zelensky’s visit to France on June 6. Initially, a small team will assess the situation, followed by several hundred trainers. The focus will be on demining, maintaining Western equipment, and training a new Ukrainian mechanized brigade.
Western countries are ramping up artillery production for Ukraine. A Czech-led initiative faces challenges competing with Russia for ammunition from non-NATO countries. Russia’s ability to make quick cash payments gives it an edge. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced that the first shipments of 155mm artillery shells will reach Ukraine soon. Meanwhile, US companies like General Dynamics and IMT are increasing production, aiming to meet the Defense Department’s target of 100,000 shells per month by 2025.
Russia News
The Russian government approved a new tax reform, introducing a progressive income tax starting in 2025. This reform will slightly increase the financial burden on Russia’s wealthy to support the long war effort in Ukraine. Taxes will rise from 13% to 15% for those earning over 2.4 million rubles ($26,600) annually and up to 22% for incomes above 50 million rubles ($554,000). Corporate income tax will increase from 20% to 25%, and some business tax benefits will be removed. This is expected to generate an additional 2.6 trillion rubles ($28.8 billion) in 2025. The reform aims to distribute war costs more evenly without causing significant discontent among the wealthy.
President Vladimir Putin is addressing Russia’s demographic crisis through the “Year of the Family” 2024 initiative. Putin held a video conference discussing state support for large families, aiming to make families with three or more children the norm. He highlighted a 26% increase in large families in recent years and awarded honors to parents with many children. Putin’s policy includes defining families with three or more children as “large families” and providing social support. This initiative seeks to boost birth rates and address long-term demographic challenges exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and mass migration.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia has formed a new unnamed airborne (VDV) regiment based in occupied Crimea, now operating in the Zaporizhia direction. The People’s Front, a political coalition, announced on May 20 that elements of this regiment are already involved in combat. The coalition, which supports Russian servicemen in Ukraine, gathered weapons, equipment, and supplies for the regiment with the help of Crimean residents. The new VDV regiment in Crimea may be the third regiment of the Russian 44th VDV Division but is unlikely to be a true airborne unit. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that the 44th VDV Division, now operating in the Zaporizhia direction, currently includes only the 111th and 387th Motorized Rifle Regiments. The third regiment might be staffed with volunteers or mobilized men from Crimea, who are likely not airborne qualified. Mashovets described the 44th VDV Division as more of a territorial or reserve force rather than a specialized airborne unit, lacking proper structure, equipment, and training.
Former Wagner Group commander Boris “Zombie” Nizhevenok has taken command of the newly-formed “Vostok-V” Volunteer Reconnaissance-Assault Brigade under Rosgvardia. He announced in a video that the brigade, previously operating in the Chasiv Yar direction, is now being reformed. Nizhevenok aims to recruit about 3,500 former Wagner personnel, but sources doubt he will reach this goal.
Starting in late 2022, Russian officials reportedly recruited about 1,000 female prisoners to fight in Ukraine under deceptive terms. Promised a one-time payment of 500,000 rubles and a monthly salary of 200,000 rubles, the women received only half these amounts. Many recruits lacked discipline and morale, and 90 percent were sent to assault groups instead of promised roles as medics and snipers.
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger reported that members of the “Night Wolves” Motorcycle Club are involved in combat operations near Bakhmut. They are part of the “Pyatnashka” Volunteer Brigade and use motorcycles to retrieve fallen Russian drones. Founded in 1989, the “Night Wolves” received state sponsorship in the 2010s and participated in Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, often expressing ultranationalist views.
Russia launched a program to address a 900,000 IT personnel deficit by introducing a new test to help participants find IT specialties and receive necessary training.
Russian milbloggers criticized the Ministry of Defense for failing to build proper hangars to protect military aircraft. They noted that hastily constructed hangars lack space for aircraft to taxi and require tractors for movement. Officials are considering 150 light hangars, but funding is uncertain. The milbloggers argue that reinforced concrete hangars are needed, and current light hangars at Marinovka Air Base are inadequate against threats like Ukrainian drones and missiles. There is no centralized plan for constructing better hangars.
Rostec announced that Russian developers are testing the new MGP-4 “Shmel” demining unmanned ground vehicle in occupied Ukraine. The “Shmel” uses remote control, cameras, and sensors to clear mines from up to 1,000 meters away, reducing risk to sappers. It recently received an anti-mine trawl effective against small anti-personnel mines.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
The Russian government is using pro-war comics to indoctrinate youth and support its war efforts in Ukraine, according to a BBC report on May 29. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Education Ministry began distributing tens of thousands of these comics in April 2024 to schools in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The comics, which feature 22 stories, promote false Kremlin narratives about preventing a “genocide” in Ukraine and include anti-Western, anti-NATO, and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Prominent milblogger Mikhail Zvinchuk also launched a series of 23 war-themed comics in 2023, translated into multiple languages, which echo Kremlin narratives and depict combat operations in Ukraine. These comics were featured in the MoD-backed “Power of Truth” art exhibition that toured over 75 cities.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org