Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces launched two significant strikes against Russian military assets. The first targeted Russia’s Kombinat Kristal oil storage facility near Engels in Saratov Oblast, causing a major fire that burned through the morning and is expected to disrupt operations at the nearby Engels-2 Air Base. In a separate operation, Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian command post in occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, targeting the headquarters of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army which was coordinating operations in Kurakhove.
On the ground, Russian forces made territorial advances in multiple sectors, pushing forward in Kursk Oblast, Toretsk, and near Kurakhove. Russian military tactics continue to evolve, with an increased deployment of drones connected to fiber optic cables across Ukrainian territory.
Picture of the Day:
Firefighters extinguish flames in a building damaged by a Russian airstrike in Zaporizhzhia. Russia attacked the city with KAB aerial bombs, killing 13 people and injuring 63. (Ukraine’s State Emergency Service / Telegram)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Tensions are escalating between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev calling Armenia a “fascist state” that “must be destroyed” and threatening to eliminate what he terms its “fascist ideology.” This rhetoric follows Azerbaijan’s September 2023 takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, which occurred when Russian peacekeepers failed to protect the region, leading to the exodus of nearly 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Armenia has since distanced itself from Moscow and is seeking EU membership and Western security cooperation, while Azerbaijan initially moved closer to Russia. However, relations between Baku and Moscow became strained after a December 25 plane crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, which Azerbaijan claims was caused by Russian air defense systems. While both nations claim to want peace and continue talks, with Armenia’s Prime Minister Pashinyan expressing concerns about potential further Azerbaijani aggression, they are actively rearming. This situation could further destabilize Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, potentially impacting Western support for Ukraine if conflict erupts.
Russian gas supplies to Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria were cut off on January 1, with Gazprom claiming the suspension is due to unpaid debts amid a financial dispute between Moscow and Moldova. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has accused Russia of using gas as a weapon of “hybrid warfare” against Moldova, highlighting Russia’s continued use of energy resources to pressure former Soviet states. The cutoff has caused power outages and heating failures in the Russian-occupied Transnistria region, pushing its electricity system toward collapse. While Moldova proper has shifted to European energy sources, Transnistria remains dependent on Russian gas. In response, Ukraine and Moldova’s presidents announced joint efforts to address Moldova’s energy crisis, with both leaders viewing this as a deliberate Russian attempt to destabilize Moldova. This development could further destabilize the region and increase tensions between Russia and the EU, potentially threatening regional peace and security.
Finland and Estonia will host a NATO summit on January 14 focusing on Baltic Sea security, addressing suspected Russian sabotage of undersea infrastructure, with leaders from Baltic NATO states, Germany, Poland, Sweden, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte attending. The meeting follows damage to four telecommunication cables and one power cable on December 25, with suspicions directed at the Russian vessel Eagle S, and only two cables have been repaired so far. The situation is complicated by increased Russian naval activity, including two suspicious Russian-registered vessels spotted between Sweden and Denmark. In response, NATO has deployed ten vessels, primarily from Finnish and Estonian forces, to guard undersea infrastructure until April and established a Maritime Center for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure, implementing new tracking systems. These developments reflect growing concerns about Russian sabotage activities in the Baltic region, which could potentially threaten regional stability and critical communication networks amid escalating tensions in Europe.
Donald Trump has called for NATO members to increase their defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP, a level no member currently achieves. This announcement comes after his controversial February statement suggesting Russia could attack NATO members who don’t meet spending requirements. While NATO allies are considering raising the benchmark to 3% by 2030, only 24 of 32 members currently meet the existing 2% target. Poland leads NATO defense spending at 4.12% of GDP, followed by Estonia (3.43%) and the U.S. (3.38%). Trump’s statements have raised concerns about the future of NATO’s collective defense commitment and potential implications for global security, particularly given Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Polish Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz announced the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s January 9 meeting at Ramstein Air Base could be its last in the current format due to Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency. The group, comprising over 50 nations including all NATO members, will discuss strengthening Ukraine’s military capabilities through 2027. Kosiniak-Kamysz advocates for NATO to take a larger role in supporting Ukraine, noting NATO’s existing involvement in protecting critical logistics hubs like Poland’s Rzeszów–Jasionka Airport. With Trump’s presidency approaching and his criticism of current U.S. Ukraine policy, this meeting marks a potential turning point in international military support for Ukraine, raising concerns about the continuity of Western aid and its implications for regional security.
Poland has closed its consulate in St. Petersburg, Russia, after 53 years of operation, following Poland’s earlier order to shut down a Russian consulate in Poznan due to alleged sabotage plots. Polish Ambassador to Russia Krzysztof Krajewski oversaw the closure. This diplomatic tension reflects Poland’s strong support for Ukraine during Russia’s invasion, including weapons provision and hosting approximately 1 million Ukrainian refugees. The closure comes as Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski advocates for a “fair peace” for Ukraine, contrasting with French President Macron’s suggestion for Ukraine to consider “realistic” territorial discussions. This development further strains Russian-Polish relations and highlights growing diplomatic tensions in Eastern Europe.
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro has announced the arrest of seven alleged “mercenaries” – including three Ukrainians, two Americans, and two Colombians – claiming they planned terrorist actions ahead of his January 10 inauguration. No evidence was provided for these claims, and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry hasn’t responded. This development occurs as Maduro prepares to begin another six-year term following contested 2024 elections widely reported as fraudulent. The situation has international implications, as Maduro maintains close ties with Moscow and openly supports Russia in its war against Ukraine, while the U.S. and other nations recognize opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as Venezuela’s legitimate president-elect. This raises concerns about increasing tensions between Western-aligned nations and the Russia-Venezuela alliance.
Belarusian territorial troops began military exercises scheduled to continue through January 31. Military analysts do not consider these exercises a threat to Ukraine.
A new video and photos have emerged of imprisoned Belarusian opposition leader Viktar Babaryka, who had been unseen since February 2023. The footage was released by former dissident-turned-regime supporter Raman Pratasevich, showing Babaryka in prison garb labeled as “prone to extremist activities.” This development comes as Belarus approaches its January 26 presidential election, where dictator Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994, seeks a seventh term. Lukashenko recently pardoned 20 political prisoners, though Babaryka, who was prevented from running in 2020 and sentenced to 14 years on disputed charges, remains imprisoned. The situation highlights the ongoing political repression in Belarus, which serves as a key ally to Russia and impacts regional stability and democratic freedoms in Eastern Europe.
The Path to Peace
Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s choice for special Ukraine peace envoy, announced that Trump aims to end Russia’s war against Ukraine within 100 days of taking office on January 20, 2025. Kellogg emphasized Trump’s willingness to work with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to reach a solution.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, in his final days before Trump takes office, emphasized that Russia does not have complete dominance in its war against Ukraine despite some advantages. Austin noted that maintaining occupation of Ukrainian territory would be costly for Russia, which currently holds about 20% of Ukraine. He highlighted Russia’s significant losses of around 700,000 troops killed and wounded, and its reliance on Iran and North Korea for support, including approximately 12,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces hit a Russian military command post in occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, located 25 kilometers east of Donetsk, targeting the headquarters of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army which was coordinating operations and attacks on Ukrainian positions and civilians in Kurakhove, a city Russia recently claimed to have captured. Additionally, Russian sources confirmed that a previous Ukrainian strike on December 30 in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, killed at least four Russian airborne troops.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a missile strike on an unoccupied oil storage facility near the port of Berdyansk in Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources reported the incident, though no visual confirmation has been available.
Russia has deployed its first S-500 Prometheus air defense regiment to protect the Kerch Bridge in occupied Crimea, as announced by Russian military chief Valery Gerasimov on Dec. 18. The advanced system, which reportedly can intercept hypersonic missiles, ballistic missiles, and stealth aircraft at ranges up to 600 kilometers, was positioned there following Ukrainian ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes in the region. The deployment reflects Moscow’s concerns about protecting this critical supply route between Russia and Crimea, which has been a frequent target of Ukrainian attacks.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast on January 8, specifically in western Nikolaevka and Makhnovka near Sudzha. While Russian sources claim additional gains near settlements including Malaya Loknya, Staraya Sorochina, Orlovka, Nikolayevo-Darino, Russkoye Porechnoye, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Bondarevka, Kositsa, and Pogrebki, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces reported repelling a Russian mechanized assault in the region.
Ukrainian forces successfully struck Russia’s Kombinat Kristal oil storage facility near Engels in Saratov Oblast, approximately 600 kilometers from the front lines, during an overnight operation. The facility, which supplies fuel to Russia’s Engels-2 Air Base, suffered a major fire that burned into the following morning, with local residents reporting up to 15 explosions. While local governor Roman Busargin initially downplayed the incident as drone debris, he later confirmed a drone attack on an industrial facility, claiming 11 Ukrainian drones were intercepted, though reported no injuries.
The Engels-2 base, located less than 10 kilometers from the oil depot, houses strategic Tu-160, Tu-95 MS, and Tu-22M3 bombers that have been used extensively to launch cruise missile strikes against Ukraine since the 2022 invasion. The attack was conducted by Ukraine’s military intelligence and Unmanned Systems Forces, and according to Ukraine’s military and General Staff, the depot’s destruction will significantly impact Russia’s ability to launch airstrikes against Ukrainian cities. The base has been targeted previously by Ukrainian forces.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Vovchansk and Tykhe, northeast of Kharkiv City, but failed to make any confirmed territorial gains.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kupyansk with reported advances south of Dvorichna and along the Dvorichna-Kupyansk highway towards Zapadne. Russian forces also attacked near Holubivka, Topoli, and Petropavlivka, though no confirmed advances were made. Russian sources claim to have disrupted Ukrainian supply lines near Dvorichna and destroyed a river crossing near Kupyansk.
Borova
Russian forces continued operations near Borova with Russian sources claiming advances between Zahryzove and Lozova, and west of Makiivka. While one Russian source claimed their forces were five kilometers from Borova, evidence suggests they remain about 12 kilometers away. Recent footage showed a brief Ukrainian armored vehicle advance into Kolisnykivka, suggesting incomplete Russian control of the area. Russian forces also conducted attacks near several settlements including Nadiya, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Pershotravneve, Novoserhiivka, and Cherneshchyna, though no advances were confirmed.
Lyman
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman. Russian sources claimed advances toward Kolodyazi and Myrne along the Zherebets River’s west bank, though Russian forces remain approximately 3.5 kilometers from Kolodyazi. Russian forces also attacked near Ivanivka, Terny, and Zarichne, but made no confirmed advances.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued operations near Bilohorivka with claims of advances south of Verkhnokamyanske, though no gains were confirmed. A Ukrainian commander reported that Russian forces are using guided glide bombs to strike Siversk, sometimes targeting single streets with multiple bombs. The commander noted that Russian forces conduct small infantry assaults during freezing weather at dawn and dusk, using various vehicles including motorcycles and tanks to transport troops to the front.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued operations near Chasiv Yar. Russian sources claimed their forces advanced to central Chasiv Yar at the intersection of Dniprovska and Kovalevskoho streets, and south of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, though these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces also attacked near Vasyukivka, Bondarne, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. Russian military units are reportedly operating near the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in northern and northwestern Toretsk with geolocated footage confirming recent gains. Russian sources claim advances near the Toretsk Mine, in Dachne, and toward Dyliivka along the railway line, though these claims remain unverified. A Russian source noted that while Ukrainian forces had previously used drones and mobile assault groups to slow Russian advances in Toretsk, Russian forces are now making faster progress.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces claimed to have disrupted the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway near Malynivka, though this remains unconfirmed. Russian sources report advances to the outskirts of Zvirove, while Ukrainian observers note that Russia has introduced several new motorized rifle brigades south of Pokrovsk. Russian forces have intensified operations near Myrnohrad, transferring fresh forces from the Kurakhove direction and using civilian vehicles for troop transport. Russian forces conducted attacks across multiple settlements including Myrolyubivka, Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, Tarasivka, Vodyane Druhe, Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Nadezhdynka, Novovasylivka, and Yasenove.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces made marginal advances east of Dachne near Kurakhove confirmed by geolocated footage. Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Kurakhove, including Shevchenko, Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, Sribne, Kostiantynopil, Andriivka, Ulakly, Kostiantynopolske, Yantarne, and Rozlyv.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued operations near Velyka Novosilka attacking near Vremivka and Novosilka without confirmed advances. Russian forces are reportedly attacking Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and attempting to advance along the Velyka Novosilka-Hulyaipole road.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast without confirmed advances. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces are conducting multiple small infantry assaults daily to probe Ukrainian defenses near Orikhiv, largely without armored support.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near Kherson City targeting areas around Kozatskyi Island and Velykyi Potemkin Island but failed to gain ground.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a large-scale drone attack against Ukraine, deploying 64 Shahed drones and decoys from multiple Russian regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 41 drones across nine oblasts, while 22 decoys were neutralized by electronic warfare. Drone debris caused minor damage in Kyiv Oblast. Separately, a Russian glide bomb struck Zaporizhzhia City, hitting an industrial target.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that 2025 will be a crucial year for Ukraine’s EU accession talks. With Poland and Denmark holding the EU presidency this year, Zelensky expressed confidence in progress toward membership, which could potentially happen by 2029. The president also mentioned ongoing preparations for the upcoming Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Force Base tomorrow, where military support against Russian aggression will be discussed.
During a meeting with Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to former President Donald Trump’s recent comments linking Ukraine’s NATO aspirations to Russia’s invasion. Zelensky maintained that the lack of NATO membership and security guarantees actually encouraged Russia’s invasion, not the prospect of joining NATO. Trump had previously criticized President Biden’s support for Ukraine’s NATO membership, claiming it provoked Russia. The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump’s team might propose delaying Ukraine’s NATO entry by 20 years in exchange for Western arms and European peacekeepers to monitor a potential ceasefire. Despite these discussions, Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s immediate need for security guarantees while remaining cautiously optimistic about working with any future U.S. administration.
Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and his party introduced legislation on January 7 to ban Russian oil and gas transit through Ukraine during martial law. The bill follows Ukraine’s decision to end Russian gas transit through its pipelines after December 2024, though Russian oil continues to flow through the Druzhba pipeline until 2029. Poroshenko emphasized that Russia earns significant revenue from oil transit, projecting $7.5 billion in 2025 from Ukrainian transit alone. The pipeline currently transports 300,000 barrels of Russian oil daily to Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia.
Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has strongly opposed the proposed bill, calling it “unacceptable” and suggesting it could impact Ukraine’s EU membership prospects. Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria remain dependent on Russian gas through Gazprombank, and these countries have opposed Ukraine’s plans to halt energy transit, citing concerns about their energy security. This dispute highlights ongoing tensions between Hungary and Ukraine, with Hungary maintaining friendly relations with Moscow while opposing sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine. The situation could potentially impact European energy security and regional stability, particularly given Hungary’s ability to veto Ukraine’s EU aspirations.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 15 INJURIES: 126
A Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia killed 13 people and injured 113, including a child. 59 people were hospitalized, with 10 in critical condition. The attack, using guided bombs, struck between an industrial facility’s administrative building and the road, damaging apartment buildings, a tram, a minibus, and other infrastructure.
A Russian attack on Pokrovsk, a front-line town in Donetsk Oblast, resulted in three civilian injuries.
Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast left two people dead and nine injured, while damaging three high-rise buildings, five houses, a bus, and other civilian property.
A Russian drone attack on the Shostka community in Sumy Oblast injured one civilian and damaged a house.
Aftermath of a Russian attack on an industrial facility in Zaporizhia (Governor Ivan Fedorov / Telegram)
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A media investigation revealed significant issues within Ukraine’s 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Brigade stationed near Pokrovsk, including high rates of soldiers going AWOL and organizational problems. Ground Forces Chief General Mykhailo Drapatyi acknowledged systemic failures in the brigade’s management, recruitment, and training, attributing these to Ukraine’s military leadership, including the Ground Forces Command and General Staff. Drapatyi, appointed in November, announced plans to address these issues by recruiting experienced commanders and providing additional training and psychological support. While France fulfilled its commitments to train and equip the brigade, an investigation by Censor.net’s editor Yurii Butusov claimed approximately 1,700 soldiers had deserted the unit before engaging in combat.
Ukraine’s military has begun testing the Black Widow 2, a new unmanned surface vehicle (USV-drone) developed by the Brave1 technology cluster. The one-meter-long watercraft is designed for reconnaissance and offensive operations on rivers, particularly targeting Russian troops along the Dnipro River. The battery-powered drone can travel up to 10 kilometers at speeds of 40 kph, carry a 3-kilogram explosive payload, and features day/night camera capabilities. Costing under $2,400 per unit, production is expected to reach 100 units monthly.
Ukraine’s Allies
The Biden administration plans to announce its final $500 million military aid package to Ukraine on January 9, as reported by Voice of America from Ramstein Air Base. While this package will draw from Pentagon stockpiles through the Presidential Drawdown Authority program, approximately $3.8 billion in funds will remain unused before Trump takes office on January 20. Although Trump’s team has criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine, with incoming National Security Advisor Michael Waltz opposing “blank check” support, President Zelensky has expressed willingness to work with the new administration and proposed using frozen Russian assets to purchase U.S. weapons. Recent Financial Times reporting suggests Trump may continue some form of military support despite his previous criticisms.
A bipartisan group of U.S. legislators submitted a draft resolution to Congress on January 6 to recognize Russia’s actions in Ukraine as genocide. The resolution cites Russian forces’ deliberate targeting of civilians and infrastructure, systematic sexual violence, and forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. Ambassador Oksana Markarova noted that Ukraine’s Prosecutor General has documented over 170,000 Russian aggression-related crimes. The resolution follows the International Criminal Court’s 2023 arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and official Maria Lvova-Belova regarding the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.
Laura Cooper, a senior Pentagon official overseeing Russia and Ukraine policy, has resigned ahead of Donald Trump’s upcoming presidential inauguration. Cooper, who helped coordinate U.S. aid to Ukraine during the current war and previously testified in Trump’s 2019 impeachment inquiry, was instrumental in managing Ukraine assistance. Her departure comes amid uncertainty about future U.S. policy toward Ukraine under Trump, who has pledged to push for peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia while expressing sympathy for Putin’s concerns about NATO expansion. Steven Schleien will temporarily fill her position, with broader Pentagon changes expected after Trump takes office on January 20.
Russia News
Hackers calling themselves “Silent Crow” claim to have breached Russia’s state property and mapping agency database, according to independent Russian news outlet Agentstvo. The group says they obtained 2 billion records containing personal data including property ownership, identification details, and contact information through early 2024. While Russian authorities deny the breach, Agentstvo verified a small sample of the 82 million records released as proof. The incident follows similar cyberattacks between Russia and Ukraine during the war, including a recent Russian attack on Ukraine’s Justice Ministry registers.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1430
803100 |
Tanks +17
9731 |
Artillery +36
21765 |
Arm. Veh. +16
20221 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian forces have begun deploying a new type of drone tethered to fiber optic cables along the frontline, making them resistant to electronic warfare. While these drones are slower and less agile than standard FPV drones, making them vulnerable to gunfire, they represent a new tactical challenge. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson noted this is not yet a systematic deployment. A Russian military blogger claimed Russia pioneered this technology in Ukraine but warned that Ukrainian forces would likely develop similar capabilities.
Russia’s Allies
Chinese company KST Digital Technology Limited has been accused of supplying servomechanisms for Russia’s UMPK guided bomb systems and Shahed drones through an elaborate scheme to evade sanctions. The components were disguised through multiple rebranding steps, including false attribution to Taiwan’s Rung Cherng company and routing through shell companies, before reaching Russian defense manufacturers. Russia has been using over 60 UMPK guided bombs daily against Ukraine. The case highlights significant gaps in sanctions enforcement, particularly regarding Chinese firms supplying Russia’s military industry.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com