Summary of the day: Ukraine secured long-term support from the US, Japan, and other G7 and Ramstein format countries through bilateral security agreements. The US finally imposed sanctions on the Moscow Exchange, Russian financial institutions, and defense manufacturers, although the Russian government appears confident in its ability to mitigate the impact due to the delay in implementation. President Biden reiterated his opposition to allowing Ukrainian forces to strike military targets in Russia using US-provided weapons, while Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets in Crimea are forcing Russia to commit additional air defense assets to the peninsula.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The United States, UK, and Canada issued a joint statement condemning Russian efforts to undermine Moldova’s democratic institutions and practices ahead of the country’s October 2024 presidential election and EU membership referendum. The statement aligns with the Kremlin’s ongoing hybrid campaign to destabilize Moldovan democracy, which includes financing political activities through criminal groups, supporting pro-Kremlin presidential candidates, and conducting targeted disinformation campaigns.
Russian MoD 12th Directorate Head Lieutenant General Igor Kolesnikov reported on June 13 that Russian and Belarusian forces began the second stage of joint military exercises with tactical nuclear weapons, which involves transporting tactical nuclear ammunition and launchers to specific positions. These exercises are part of Russia’s ongoing reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making through nuclear saber-rattling and other forms of manipulation.
Peace Talks
China is reportedly using diplomatic channels to persuade other countries not to support the upcoming Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15-16. According to diplomatic sources, China is lobbying for its own six-point peace plan, which includes a conference with both Ukraine and Russia, by claiming that the Swiss summit will prolong the war. Russia has also asked China to “snub” the Swiss conference, with President Zelensky stating that Russia is using Chinese influence to disrupt the summit. The Kremlin is likely attempting to leverage China’s diplomatic connections and global influence to advance Russian interests.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
President Biden maintained his stance against allowing Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to attack Russian military targets in operational or deep rear areas within Russia, although he acknowledged the logic behind permitting strikes near the border. The US policy change has only minimally reduced Russia’s ground sanctuary, and the West could significantly disrupt Russian operations by enabling Ukraine to target Russia’s rear areas with Western weapons.
The Russian military reportedly used a modified Kh-101 cruise missile equipped with cluster munitions for the second time during strikes against Ukraine on the night of June 11-12. According to Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Kyrychevskyi, the modified Kh-101 had an 800-kilogram warhead, and even if Ukrainian forces shoot down the missile, the cluster munition warhead can still detach and detonate, causing damage to ground targets. Russian forces reportedly first used this modified Kh-101 with cluster munitions during strikes on the night of June 6-7.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets in occupied Crimea seem to be forcing Russia to deploy additional air defense assets, such as the experimental S-500 system, to protect its bases and infrastructure on the peninsula. If Ukraine continues to successfully target these air defenses, it could render Crimea untenable as a staging ground for Russian forces. Russian forces have also placed barges near the Kerch Strait Bridge to defend against Ukrainian naval drone strikes. Ukraine’s efforts to degrade Russian air defenses in Crimea may draw more of these assets to the area, making them vulnerable to further strikes and potentially enabling Ukraine to use manned fixed-wing airpower more effectively in the future.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces recaptured positions north of Kharkiv City, while Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces counterattacking and seizing positions near Hlyboke. Russian sources reported Ukrainian counterattacks around Hlyboke and Vovchansk, with one noting that these actions complicate the situation for Russian forces. However, Russian forces claimed advances north of Vovchansk and near the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. Both sides suggested that Russian forces introduced reserves to the area, possibly including elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade redeployed from Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces also attempted to fortify their positions in the northern Kharkiv direction, while the Ukrainian General Staff reported unsuccessful Russian ground attacks near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 13 without making any confirmed advances. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported fighting in several areas, including northeast and southeast of Kupyansk, northwest of Svatove, northwest and west of Kreminna, and southwest of Kreminna in the Serebryanske forest area. Some milbloggers claimed Russian forces are advancing west of Ivanivka towards Stepova Novoselivka, but visual evidence of recent Russian advances in this area has not been observed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces recently made advances south of Siversk. Geolocated footage shows that they reached the eastern outskirts of Rozdolivka. Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 106th Airborne Division have been operating near Rozdolivka since June 12 and that Russian forces also advanced near Vyimka. Another milblogger reported the capture of a Ukrainian position near Verkhnokamyanske. Fighting continued near Bilohorivka and Spirne.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar without making any confirmed advances. They conducted ground attacks in eastern Chasiv Yar, north of the city near Kalynivka, east near Ivanivske, and southeast near Andriivka. Russian milbloggers claimed Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Klishchiivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces have captured Novopokrovske, northwest of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces raising a flag in western Novopokrovske, and Russian milbloggers widely claimed the village was seized. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks near Mezhove, southwest of Novopokrovske, for the first time, indicating that fighting has advanced beyond the village. Additional geolocated footage shows Russian advances west of Semenivka and north of Umanske, both west of Avdiivka. Russian milbloggers claimed further advances south of Novooleksandrivka, west of Netaylove, and in southeastern Nevelske, although these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces also attacked northwest of Avdiivka near Kalynove, Novoselivka Persha, Yevhenivka, and Sokil.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces intensified offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have been most active in the Kurakhove direction and increased efforts near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Paraskoviivka. A Ukrainian military officer claimed Russian forces conducted a company-sized mechanized attack with 19 armored vehicles, with Ukrainian forces destroying 14 of them, although visual evidence of this specific attack has not been observed. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued to advance in western Krasnohorivka and north of the Refractory Plant. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated that Russian forces are actively using armored vehicles to attempt to capture Kostyantynivka and Paraskoviivka, aiming to reach the Vuhledar-Marinka road and pressure the rear of the Ukrainian grouping near Vuhledar.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Limited positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske and Urozhaine, both south of Velyka Novosilka. However, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast, without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces are reportedly operating near Kamianske, west of Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued assaults near Krynky in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, but there were no confirmed changes in the area. Russian forces 80th are reportedly operating in the Kherson direction. Ukrainian Naval Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that Ukrainian forces have recently succeeded in destroying five Russian military boats per day in southern Ukraine, an increase from the previous rate of one or two boats per day, although he did not provide a reason for this increase.
Ukraine News
Russian forces conducted limited strikes against targets in Ukraine, hitting residential and energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring six people, and striking civilian and logistics infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast with guided glide bombs. Ukrainian air defenses downed various Russian drones and loitering munitions over southern Ukraine and other unspecified areas between June 6-13.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine signed ten-year bilateral security agreements with the US and Japan, securing long-term support in defense, security, economic recovery, and Euro-Atlantic integration. G7 and NATO partners also reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine, with the UK announcing £242 million in assistance, G7 leaders finalizing the transfer of up to $50 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine by 2024, and NATO preparing a comprehensive military and financial aid package for the upcoming July summit.
The US and UK imposed sanctions on over 300 Russian individuals and entities, including the Moscow Exchange, major banks, and defense companies, 839 days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian government appears confident that the new US and UK sanctions will have minimal impact on its financial system, as the delay in imposing these measures has given Russia time to prepare and mitigate their effects. The Moscow Exchange suspended trading in USD, euros, and HKD, while the Russian Central Bank set fixed exchange rates for over-the-counter trading. Despite some initial reports of high exchange rates, major Russian banks and companies have stated that the sanctions will not significantly affect their operations. However, Bloomberg assessed that the new US sanctions will make international trading more challenging for Russian businesses due to increased costs of over-the-counter trading and reduced foreign willingness to engage with Russian entities, fearing secondary sanctions. A source close to the Russian Central Bank indicated that Chinese banks might gradually reduce cooperation with the Moscow Exchange, although they will still provide yuan liquidity to support imports. The source also expressed uncertainty about the effectiveness of the Russian Central Bank’s new exchange rates and the potential rise in costs for foreign trading and business.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian regions continue to increase monetary incentives to recruit military personnel. Chelyabinsk Oblast Governor Alexei Teksler proposed raising one-time regional payments for contract soldiers (kontraktniki) to 350,000 rubles (about $3,900), the second increase in 2024 following a previous raise from 75,000 to 225,000 rubles. Opposition outlets noted that 14 Russian regions have similarly increased payments to kontraktniki this year.
The Russian Navy reportedly began sea trials for the Project 885M “Arkhangelsk” Yasem-M class nuclear submarine in the White Sea on June 11. The submarine will undergo tests in the summer of 2024 before proceeding to state tests. Russian shipbuilder Sevmash delivered the “Arkhangelsk” to the Russian Navy for testing in November 2023.
The Russian military has reportedly developed the “Murena-300” maritime strike drone, which can carry up to 250 kilograms of explosives and has a cruising range of 250 kilometers. The drone is expected to carry 250 kilograms of explosives in the future and includes an inertial navigation system.
The Russian Airburg drone production company has reportedly created the “Phaeton” transport and reconnaissance drone, which can perform vertical takeoffs, has a flight time of five hours, a flight range of up to 500 kilometers, and can carry payloads of 15 kilograms.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated known Kremlin narratives aimed at blaming the West for Russian aggression and increasing tension in Eastern Europe.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org