Ukraine Daily Briefing | May 12, 2026 | Day 1,539 of the Full-Scale Invasion
The three-day ceasefire expired at midnight and Russia resumed immediately: 216 drones overnight, a kindergarten struck in Kyiv Oblast, a drone depot and ammunition cache hit in Donetsk City, and four civilians killed by May 12 — including a 43-year-old man and 65-year-old woman in Kryvyi Rih, where a 9-month-old girl was hospitalized in critical condition. Ukraine responded: overnight strikes hit the Orsknefteorgsintez refinery in Orenburg Oblast (6.6 million tons/year), the Strela cruise missile plant 4 km away, and a gas industry facility 1,500 km from the border confirmed by Zelensky; drones also struck oil export infrastructure in Volna, Krasnodar Krai. Putin claimed a successful Sarmat ICBM test and announced deployment to the 62nd Missile Division in Krasnoyarsk by end of 2026 — ISW assessed this as cognitive warfare to conceal the parade failure. Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s former chief of staff, was formally charged with money laundering tied to a luxury compound near Kyiv; NABU confirmed Zelensky is not a suspect. The prisoner exchange has not happened; Sybiha accused Russia of attempting to include abducted Ukrainian children in the swap. A 60-nation coalition for the return of 20,000+ abducted children met in Brussels; the EU, UK, and Canada announced new sanctions against those responsible. The U.S. signed a memorandum with Ukraine on drone technology exchange and joint production. Trump said there is no agreement with Putin on Russia receiving all of Donbas.
The Day’s Reckoning
The silence ended at midnight and Russia replaced it with 216 drones. The targets were familiar: energy infrastructure, railways, residential buildings, a kindergarten. Ukraine’s air defenses downed 192 of the drones; 25 struck 10 locations; debris fell on 5 more. A 16-story building in Kyiv’s Obolon district took a hit on the roof. In Fastiv, a kindergarten and several homes were damaged. In Kryvyi Rih, a drone struck a residential apartment building, killing a 65-year-old woman and a 43-year-old man, wounding four others including a 9-month-old girl hospitalized in critical condition. In Donetsk Oblast, three people were killed. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, railway infrastructure was struck and a train engineer was wounded by debris as he ran toward a shelter.
The aftermath of a Russian attack on a residential building in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine. (President Volodymyr Zelensky / Telegram)
Ukraine responded with its own return to tempo. The Orsknefteorgsintez refinery in Orenburg Oblast — 6.6 million tons of crude annually, one of Russia’s oldest and largest in the southern Urals, more than 800 kilometers from the Ukrainian border — was struck, with explosions and smoke reported. Drones also fell 4 kilometers from the Strela production plant in Orenburg — a manufacturer of supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles and components for Su and MiG fighter jets. Zelensky confirmed in his evening address that Ukrainian forces struck a gas industry facility 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border in Orenburg Oblast. Overnight into May 13, drones struck oil export infrastructure in Volna, Krasnodar Krai — the Tammanneftogaz terminal that transfers oil from Russian pipelines onto tankers for Black Sea export, confirmed by NASA FIRMS satellite fire data.
Putin announced a successful test of the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM and declared plans to deploy it to the 62nd Missile Division by end of 2026. ISW assessed the claim is cognitive warfare: Russia failed to hold a full Victory Day parade without asking Ukraine for a ceasefire, and Putin’s nuclear posturing is designed to distract from that failure and from the declining Russian battlefield performance. Russia’s recruitment rate has fallen below its replacement rate. Net territory was lost in April. The spring-summer 2026 offensive has produced no operationally significant gains.
In Kyiv, NABU formally charged Andriy Yermak — Zelensky’s former chief of staff and one of the most powerful figures in his administration — with money laundering tied to the construction of a luxury residential compound in Kozyn, south of the capital. Six others were also charged, including Timur Mindich and ex-Deputy PM Chernyshov. NABU chief Kryvonos confirmed at a briefing: Zelensky is not a subject of the investigation.
216 Drones, Four Civilians Killed, Railway and Energy Infrastructure Struck
Russian forces launched 216 Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and Parodiya decoy drones overnight May 11–12, from Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; occupied Donetsk City; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea. Ukrainian forces downed 192; 25 struck 10 locations; debris fell on 5 more. Zelensky confirmed over 80 aerial bombs and over 30 airstrikes on the front. Attack drones were downed in Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Chernihiv oblasts, and inside Kyiv.
In Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a Shahed-type drone struck a residential apartment building in the evening of May 12, killing a 65-year-old woman and a 43-year-old man, injuring four others. A 9-month-old girl was hospitalized in critical condition; a 23-year-old woman was hospitalized in moderate condition. Zelensky: “a cynical and militarily meaningless Russian drone strike on an ordinary residential building.” In Donetsk Oblast, one person was killed and four injured in Dobropillia; two people were killed in Mykolaivka; two others injured in Druzhkivka. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, one person was killed and eight injured across the region; Russian forces struck five districts more than 20 times. Railway infrastructure was struck — locomotives and rolling stock damaged; a train engineer was injured by drone debris while running to a shelter. In Kherson Oblast, 12 people were injured including a child across 30 settlements. In Sumy Oblast, 13 settlements struck 30 times. In Kharkiv Oblast, 12 settlements including Kharkiv City targeted. In Chernihiv Oblast, fires broke out in several homes. In Kyiv, drone debris fell on the roof of a 16-story building in Obolon; in Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast, a kindergarten and homes were damaged.
A kindergarten damaged in a Russian drone attack on the city of Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast, overnight. (Ukraine’s State Emergency Service/Telegram)
Ukraine Strikes Orenburg, Volna, and Chelyabinsk: The First Night After the Ceasefire
Zelensky confirmed in his May 12 evening address that Ukrainian forces struck a gas industry facility in Orenburg Oblast, approximately 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Russian air defenses downed nine drones over the region; drone debris damaged a residential building, a school, and a kindergarten in Orenburg, with no casualties reported by the governor. Russian independent outlet Astra reported the drones targeted the Strela Production Association — a leading enterprise of Russia’s military-industrial complex producing supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles and components for Su and MiG aircraft — with at least one drone downed approximately 4 kilometers from the plant. Ukrainian Telegram channel Supernova Plus reported the Orsknefteorgsintez refinery in the city of Orsk was hit — one of Russia’s oldest and largest refineries in the southern Urals with a processing capacity of 6.6 million tons annually, founded in 1935. The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify strikes against the specific facility.
Overnight into May 13, Ukrainian drones struck the Tammanneftogaz oil export terminal in Volna, Krasnodar Krai — a facility that transfers oil from Russian pipelines onto Black Sea tankers for global export. Videos on social media showed large smoke plumes rising from the port; NASA FIRMS satellite fire data corroborated the fire at the oil storage facility. The Krasnodar Krai Operational Headquarters reported a fire and one person injured. Ukraine’s military did not immediately comment. ISW’s geolocated footage from May 12 also shows likely Ukrainian drone debris falling on a residential building in Orenburg City, and smoke near the Pipeline Operations and Dispatch Station in Perm Krai after a reported May 12 strike. In Chelyabinsk, approximately 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, air alarms sounded and smoke was reported near a zinc processing plant; Russian emergency services claimed cardboard caught fire and the blaze was extinguished with no casualties.
A screenshot of a video showing explosions in Russia’s Orenburg, after a drone attack. (Exilenova Plus / Telegram)
The Ukrainian General Staff and USF Commander Brovdi confirmed post-ceasefire strikes in occupied Donetsk Oblast: a PRV-16 Nadezhnost radio altimeter destroyed near Huselske; an ammunition and anti-tank weapons depot struck in Donetsk City; a fuel depot, anti-tank weapons, and a radar station struck elsewhere in the oblast. Satellite imagery published May 12 confirmed a damaged warehouse at the Bryansk Chemical Plant in Seltso following a May 8 strike. BDA confirmed from previous reports: geolocated footage shows smoke near the Perm Pipeline dispatch station after a reported May 12 strike, and imagery confirms damage from a May 8 strike at Bryansk.
Putin’s Sarmat Claim: Nuclear Posturing After Parade Failure
Putin announced on May 12 that Russian forces successfully tested the RS-28 Sarmat super-heavy ICBM — also known as SS-X-29 or SS-X-30 in NATO classification — and plans to deploy the first missiles to the 62nd Missile Division (33rd Missile Army, Strategic Missile Forces) in Krasnoyarsk Krai by end of 2026. Putin highlighted Russia’s nuclear portfolio: Oreshnik IRBM, Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle, Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile. ISW assessed: Putin and other Russian officials made identical deployment promises in December 2021, June 2022, and June 2023 — all preceding what was likely a failed Sarmat test in November 2024. Putin’s rhetoric mirrors his posturing with the Oreshnik, and the timing — immediately after Russia had to ask Ukraine for a ceasefire to hold its Victory Day parade — is not coincidental.
ISW’s broader assessment on the same day: Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to produce operationally significant advances. Ukraine counterattacked in Kupyansk starting November 2025, liberated over 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine through winter and spring 2026, and most recently liberated settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late April. Russia’s monthly advance rate has declined every month since October 2025. Russia suffered a net territorial loss in April — the first since Ukraine’s 2024 Kursk incursion. Russia’s recruitment rate fell below its replacement rate for the first time in January 2026. Russian forces have failed to reverse Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhzhia despite redeploying the 387th and 1445th Motorized Rifle Regiments (7th VDV Division) and 299th VDV Regiment (98th VDV Division) to the area in early 2026. Peskov confirmed on May 12: there are “no specifics” on how the war ends, despite Putin’s May 9 statement that it is “coming to an end.”
Yermak Charged; Six Others Indicted; Zelensky Not a Suspect
NABU and SAPO formally charged Andriy Yermak — Zelensky’s former chief of staff, widely considered one of Ukraine’s most powerful political figures before his resignation — with money laundering on May 12. The charges allege that over Hr 460 million ($8.9 million) was laundered between 2021 and 2025 through shell companies to construct four luxury mansions of approximately 1,000 square meters each in the village of Kozyn, a wealthy enclave south of Kyiv. One of the mansions was intended for Yermak, according to a law enforcement source. Six additional suspects were charged including Timur Mindich (close Zelensky associate, fled to Israel in November 2025) and ex-Deputy PM Oleksiy Chernyshov. NABU chief Semen Kryvonos stated at a briefing: “The president of Ukraine did not and does not appear within the framework of this pre-trial investigation.” Zelensky has not made an official statement. Adviser Lytvyn: “It is too early to assess the ongoing procedural actions.” The charges expand Operation Midas, the largest anti-corruption investigation of Zelensky’s presidency.
Ukraine’s former Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak attends a court hearing in Kyiv, one day after being charged in a major corruption probe. (Genya Savilov / AFP via Getty Images)
Zelensky’s former spokesperson Nikiforov appeared on a U.S. talk show hosted by pro-Kremlin Tucker Carlson on May 12, accusing Zelensky of corruption and claiming that Kyiv agreed to give up the Donbas in 2022 during the Istanbul talks. The claims were not corroborated by any contemporaneous document or official statement.
POW Exchange Stalled; Russia Reportedly Wants to Include Abducted Children
The 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange announced by Trump on May 8 has not taken place. Foreign Minister Sybiha accused Russia of attempting to include deported Ukrainian children in the exchange — an assertion that the children should be returned through proper international channels, not through a prisoner swap as leverage. Zelensky confirmed on May 12 that the coalition working to secure the return of abducted children has grown to nearly 50 nations. Ukraine has submitted its POW lists and awaits U.S. guarantee of implementation.
A ministerial meeting of nearly 60 countries was held in Brussels on May 12, dedicated to the return of more than 20,000 Ukrainian children abducted by Russia since 2022. The EU, UK, and Canada announced coordinated new sanctions against individuals and entities involved in child abduction and indoctrination programs. Those listed include: Avangard Military Camp (hosts abducted Ukrainian minors for political indoctrination and militarization); Andranik Gasparyan (deputy to the head of the Warrior Center supervisory board, a Russian state-led youth militarization organization); Igor Vorobyov (head of the Warrior Center’s Volgograd branch); and Vladislav Golovin (UK and Canada), identified in the Kyiv Independent documentary “The War They Play,” a captain of the 810th Brigade who led a unit that captured Mariupol and now heads the Russian Youth Army’s central headquarters.
Trump on Donbas; U.S.-Ukraine Drone Memorandum Signed
Trump told reporters on May 12 that there is “no understanding” between him and Putin that Russia should receive all of Ukraine’s Donbas. “No,” Trump replied when asked directly. The remarks address the central sticking point in U.S.-mediated negotiations: Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast as a precondition for any ceasefire, while Zelensky and the General Staff maintain the current front line is the only realistic starting point. Trump also said he would do “whatever is necessary” to broker peace and believes the war is “getting very close” to ending.
The U.S. and Ukraine signed a memorandum of understanding on drone technology exchange and joint production on May 12, the Kyiv Independent reported. The memorandum formalizes cooperation in a sector where Ukraine has become a global leader through four years of combat development; the U.S. has explicitly stated it has “a lot to learn” from Ukraine’s drone ecosystem. Ukraine has also secured 10-year defense deals with Gulf states following the deployment of Ukrainian interceptor drone teams to defend Gulf countries from Iranian drone and missile strikes.
Ukraine Imposes Sanctions on 66 Russian Entities and Individuals
Zelensky signed a presidential decree on May 12 imposing sanctions against 32 Russian companies and 34 individuals involved in supplying materials for Russia’s military-industrial complex. Targeted entities supply materials for ballistic and surface-to-air missile systems, gunpowder, rocket fuel, munitions components, and electronic intelligence systems. The decree also includes those who “attempted to facilitate the removal of U.S. sanctions on Russia and to soften the position of the European Union.” A second decree extended existing sanctions against 13 individuals and 21 legal entities. Ukraine will share the lists with international partners to push for coordinated measures.
Frontline: Ukrainian Advances in Slovyansk and Kostyantynivka; 423rd Regiment to Lyman
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in central Riznykivka east of Slovyansk, confirmed by geolocated footage published May 11. Russian forces conducted an infiltration mission southeast of Rai-Oleksandrivka southeast of Slovyansk. Russian milbloggers claimed Russian forces seized Chaikivka northeast of Kharkiv City — not confirmed by ISW. A source reporting on the Western Grouping confirmed the Russian military command attached a company of the 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (4th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Moscow Military District) to the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th CAA, MMD) in the Lyman direction. In the Kostyantynivka area, geolocated footage from May 12 shows Russian shelling east of the city with no Russian positions in the area; footage from May 8 shows Russian forces striking western Kostyantynivka where Russian sources previously claimed enduring positions. A Russian milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces entered Chasiv Yar and its outskirts and seized high-rise buildings — not confirmed by ISW. Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in eastern Molocharka and south of Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces continued offensive operations north, west, southwest, and northwest of Pokrovsk; Ukrainian forces counterattacked north of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian drone control point near Pokrovsk. Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian officers both noted that forces in Pokrovsk increasingly prefer light vehicles and robotic systems for logistics within 1 km of the front. Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in northern Bilyakivka northeast of Novopavlivka and northwest of Filiya south of Novopavlivka. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian manpower concentration in occupied Donetsk City (52 km from front), two command and observation posts, a control post near Selydove (24 km), and a logistics depot in northern Boykivske (125 km). Ukrainian forces struck a repair unit near occupied Rozkvit (118 km) in Luhansk Oblast and a temporary mechanics area near occupied Rovenky (125 km). In the Hulyaipole direction, Russian forces continued operations without advances; geolocated footage shows Russian shelling south of Vozdvyzhivka where Russian sources previously claimed positions. In western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces continued limited assaults without advances despite having redeployed three VDV regiments to the area. Ukrainian forces struck a depot in occupied Novopoltavka (37 km) and a troop concentration in occupied Okhrimivka (115 km).
Ukrainian SSO posted footage of a strike against a Russian drone unit in Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, northeast of Kharkiv (9 km from front), conducted before May 5. In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued limited operations without advances. Neither side reported ground activity in Velykyi Burluk, Borova, Dobropillya, or Kherson directions. The first confirmed combat death of a Russian university student recruited into the Unmanned Systems Forces was reported: Valery Averin, signed a USF contract January 2026, completed drone operator training March 24, last contacted his mother April 2, killed in action by April 8 — only two weeks after training completion. His mother stated Russian forces “threw him into an assault, into the meat grinder.” BBC Russian confirmed the death; ISW assessed Averin may have served in the 147th Engineer-Sapper Regiment.
Kallas on EU Defense Industry; North Korea’s Museum; UFO Over Ukraine
EU High Representative Kallas expressed “frustration” at the EU’s defense ministers meeting on May 12 that after billions in investment, Europe’s defense industry is still not producing enough. She identified Ukraine as a key source of innovation: “we have a lot to learn” from it. Representatives of Spanish arms manufacturer Indra and Swedish Saab echoed this at a Brussels panel, with Indra’s Luengo calling for politicians to “consider how to include Ukraine in the supply chain” and Saab’s Isaksson saying Europe’s main challenge is now “time and culture, not money.” The EU raised €150 billion in defense loans at favorable terms and is strengthening the European Defence Agency, but fragmented regulatory standards continue to hinder scaling.
North Korea inaugurated a museum in Pyongyang dedicated to soldiers killed fighting in Ukraine, during Russian Defense Minister Belousov’s April visit. Ukrainian MoD advisor Beskrestnov published on May 12 video and photos from May 2025 of an unidentified flying object observed by a Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces pilot at 800 meters altitude during combat operations — a rounded object with a visible heat source and six projecting cones. Beskrestnov noted the Ukrainian Armed Forces maintain an official document on UFO sightings and called on soldiers to report sightings immediately, as the object may be an unidentified Russian weapons system. Major Ukrainian media confirmed the footage as genuine battle drone footage; no extraterrestrial explanation was suggested. Ukraine is studying such objects because the classification may cover a clandestine Russian system not yet known to the AFU.
Vape Searches; US-China Talks Begin; Orenburg Oblast Details
Ukraine’s Bureau of Economic Security conducted approximately 100 searches on illegal vape vendors across 12 regions on May 12, seizing goods and documenting tax evasion schemes estimated to cost the state up to $24.4 billion annually. The operation is part of a broader effort under bureau director Tsyvinsky to return revenue to the war budget; vape sellers hide up to 90 percent of tax obligations and often operate without licenses. A Kyiv Independent reporter witnessed detentions at the Gulliver shopping mall in Kyiv. No arrests have yet been made; the investigation is ongoing. U.S. and Chinese officials held trade talks in South Korea on May 12 ahead of Trump’s expected Beijing visit, with Treasury Secretary Bessent meeting Vice Premier He Lifeng to finalize trade-related announcements following last year’s tariff truce. Key agenda items for the Beijing summit: AI, rare earth minerals, Taiwan, and Beijing’s support for Iran.
The Weight of May 12
The ceasefire ended. Russia replaced the silence with 216 drones. A 9-month-old girl is in critical condition in Kryvyi Rih. A kindergarten in Fastiv was hit. The train engineer in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast ran toward the shelter and was struck by debris.
Ukraine struck a refinery and a cruise missile plant in Orenburg, a gas facility 1,500 kilometers from the border, and an oil terminal on the Black Sea. Zelensky: “Russia itself chose to end the partial silence.” Putin announced a Sarmat test and promised deployment by year’s end — the same promise he made in 2021, 2022, and 2023.
Yermak was charged. Six others were charged. The NABU chief said Zelensky is not a suspect. A 9-month-old girl is in critical condition. The prisoner exchange has not happened.
Sixty nations met in Brussels to discuss 20,000 abducted children. Russia apparently wants to put them in the prisoner swap. Sybiha said no. The EU, UK, and Canada sanctioned those responsible.
The war resumed. The Hornet drones are operating over Mariupol highways. The Orenburg refinery burns. The Tammanneftogaz terminal burns. The ceasefire lasted three days. The war resumed at midnight.
A Prayer for Ukraine
1. For the Four Killed and the Nine-Month-Old in Kryvyi Rih
Lord, a drone struck a residential building in Kryvyi Rih — Zelensky’s hometown — on the evening of the first day after the ceasefire ended. A 65-year-old woman and a 43-year-old man were killed. A 9-month-old girl was hospitalized in critical condition. Four people were injured. This is what Russia did on the first night after a three-day pause. Receive the two who died. And hold that infant — who does not know what a ceasefire is or why it ended — in the hands of every doctor in that hospital.
2. For the Train Engineer Who Ran Toward the Shelter
Father, a train engineer in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was injured by drone debris while running to a shelter after railway infrastructure was struck in the overnight attack. He was doing what he was supposed to do. The drone found him anyway. We pray for his recovery. And we pray for every Ukrainian who has spent three years learning to run toward shelters, calculating distances, and reading the sound of engines to determine whether to move or stay. This knowledge was not chosen. It was imposed.
3. For Valery Averin and the University Recruits
God of mercy, Valery Averin was a university student from Buryatia who signed a contract with Russia’s Unmanned Systems Forces in January, completed training in March, called his mother for the last time on April 2, and was dead by April 8. His mother said they threw him into an assault. He was not given the drone warfare role he was recruited for. He was sent into an infantry attack two weeks after completing drone operator training. He is the first confirmed death of Russia’s university recruitment drive, but his mother says there is at least one other. We pray for Valery. And we pray for every young man recruited into a war by a government that tells them one thing and sends them to do another.
4. For the 20,000 Abducted Children
Lord, sixty nations met in Brussels on May 12 to discuss the return of more than 20,000 Ukrainian children Russia has deported since 2022. Russia reportedly wants to include some of them in a prisoner swap. Sybiha said no: children should be returned through proper channels, not used as negotiating chips. We pray for each of those children — the ones in Avangard Military Camp being politically indoctrinated, the ones in Artek printing drone components, the ones at Zarnitsa 2.0 learning to operate drones and perform tactical medicine. They did not choose this. Russia chose it for them. Let the sanctions hold. Let the coalition grow. Let the children come home.
5. For What the Silence Was and Was Not
God of justice, the three-day silence is over. It held in one dimension: no mass missile strikes for three days. It failed in every other: 10,000 kamikaze drones, 180 combat engagements, three civilians killed on the final day, a kindergarten struck, a residential building hit. Ukraine submitted POW lists. The exchange has not happened. Russia allegedly wants the abducted children in the swap. Putin claimed a Sarmat test to perform strength after the weakest parade in 19 years. We do not pray that the silence returns, exactly as it was. We pray for something more durable: a negotiation that is real, terms that are enforceable, a document that protects life rather than a parade schedule. Bring this war to its end. In Your mercy, in Your justice, in Your time.