The Ukraine Daily Briefing · Saturday, October 31, 2026
Prepared by Diana Bozhyk
Residents evacuated from occupied Oleshky crossed into Ukraine’s Chernihiv region after a journey through occupied Crimea, Russia and Belarus, under the longest local ceasefire both sides have kept since 2022. Russia struck power plants in Kyiv and Shostka and four substations in the Dnipro region, leaving about 280,000 families without electricity, while Ukrainian drones and Neptune missiles hit a rocket-fuel plant in Rostov and two refineries in Ufa. In Istanbul, Zelensky met Erdogan and the Ecumenical Patriarch as Marco Rubio said he does not know whether a negotiated peace is achievable.
Residents evacuated from the Russian-controlled city of Oleshky during a humanitarian mission embrace at an undisclosed location in Ukraine. (Andrew Kravchenko/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The Day’s Reckoning
The last of four planes touched down in Gomel, Belarus, on Saturday morning. Elderly people and children walked down the stairs, some carrying pets. By evening, they were on buses crossing into Ukraine’s Chernihiv region, where medics, psychologists, hot food and warm tents were waiting. “The humanitarian operation to rescue people in Oleshky, Kherson region, has taken place,” Zelensky wrote.
That is the plot of this Saturday: a homecoming that took four days, two countries and a ceasefire, set against a war that did not stop anywhere else. Russian drones hit power plants and substations overnight. Ukrainian missiles hit the factory that fuels Russia’s rocket launchers. And in Istanbul, the presidents of Ukraine and Turkey promised to keep the Black Sea open.
Across the Atlantic, America’s top diplomat was more cautious than he had been in weeks. “I don’t know if negotiated peace is achievable in Ukraine,” Rubio said. “That’s what we’re trying to find out.”
Home Through Gomel
You lived in Oleshky through four years of occupation. On Friday, you boarded a bus in your town. On Saturday, you step off another one in your own country.
The route was long by design. The evacuees bound for Ukraine traveled by bus from Oleshky through occupied Crimea to the Russian port of Anapa, then flew on four Russian charter planes to Gomel in Belarus, with a separate vehicle carrying their pets. “We will be home soon! For now, we are on the territory of the Republic of Belarus — together with our people and even their beloved pets,” Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets wrote, posting a video of elderly residents and children leaving the planes. “The last, fourth plane has touched down in Gomel,” lawmaker Davyd Arakhamia said. “In just a few hours, all citizens of Ukraine evacuated from Oleshky, together with the Ukrainian delegation, will be on the territory of Ukraine.” They crossed into the Chernihiv region later that day.
A plane transporting evacuees from the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky in Kherson Oblast arrives in Gomel, Belarus. (Dmytro Lubinets / X)
At the border, the ombudsman’s staff, medics, psychological support teams and volunteers met them with mobile warming shelters, hot food, wheelchairs and an animal care station with water, food and veterinary supplies. Lubinets called it the longest local ceasefire both sides have kept since 2022. Lubinets and his Russian counterpart, Yana Lantratova, said some residents returned to Ukrainian-held territory while others stayed in Oleshky or traveled into Russia, but neither side has said how many chose each path. Residents who stayed were left with food packages, baby food and medicine.
The truce was not perfect. Southern Forces spokesperson Maksym Kravchuk said Russian troops repeatedly violated it, flying reconnaissance drones and dropping explosives on Ukrainian positions. He said they also used the quiet to rotate troops, fortify positions and logistics, evacuate their wounded and dead, and put up anti-drone protection on nearby roads. The Institute for the Study of War said both sides appeared to have largely kept the ceasefire, which is due to end at 10:59 p.m. on Sunday.
Power Plants in the Dark
You live in the Dnipro region, and Saturday morning you wake up without electricity. You are one of about 200,000 families.
“Yesterday evening, Russian Shaheds struck a combined heat and power plant in Kyiv,” Zelensky wrote. “In the Dnipro region, strikes hit four electrical substations during this night alone. Toward morning in Shostka, a Russian drone hit a combined heat and power plant.” More than 80,000 households in the Kyiv region also lost power. Russian strikes hit railway infrastructure in Dnipro and Kharkiv and a gas distribution facility in the Dnipropetrovsk region. “Emergency repair teams are working on liquidating the consequences of the strikes and doing everything to restore the supply of electricity,” Zelensky said. “The world sees that Russia is deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure every day,” Zelensky said. “Strong steps that will really lead toward peace are needed — sanctions against the aggressor and new support packages for Ukraine.”
Russia launched 134 drones overnight, 72 of them jet-powered, and Ukraine shot down 105; they struck 20 locations. During the day it sent 168 more drones and loitering munitions. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal has warned that Russia plans to use about 1,000 precision weapons against the grid this winter. A UN commission of inquiry reported on October 19 that Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid may amount to crimes against humanity, finding that commanders knew the heating plants they targeted were “indispensable to the civilian population, in particular during the winter,” and that the strikes were “carried out with intent and pursuant to a state policy to deprive the civilian population from essential energy supplies and cause suffering.”
Across the past day, Russian attacks killed five people and wounded at least 46. In Sloviansk, two people were killed, and 16 were wounded across the Donetsk region, Governor Vadym Filashkin said. Near Nikopol, one person was killed and four wounded. In the Zaporizhzhia region, one person was killed and two wounded, said Ivan Fedorov of the regional defense council. Seven were wounded in the Kharkiv region and 12 treated for shock, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said; in the Sumy region, seven men and seven women were hurt. Two men aged 71 and 73 were wounded in the Poltava region, and a woman near Brovary, Kyiv region Governor Tymur Tkachenko said.
In Kramatorsk, a Russian airstrike destroyed the city council’s executive committee building on Peace Square, which had survived the city’s 2014 occupation by Russian-backed militants. “An hour ago, Russia destroyed the central building of Ukrainian statehood in Kramatorsk with an airstrike,” said Oleksandr Honcharenko, head of the city’s military administration. “They can destroy a building, scorch our land and steal our memories. But they cannot destroy our right to a future.” The building had already been damaged in a Russian airstrike in March, and attacks elsewhere in the city also wounded civilians.
The Kramatorsk City Council executive committee building following a Russian airstrike. (Oleksandr Honcharenko/Facebook)
Rocket Fuel and Refineries
You work at the Kamensky plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, in Russia’s Rostov region, about 15 kilometers from Ukraine’s border. Overnight, the sky over your factory fills with drones, and then missiles.
Ukraine’s General Staff said drone units and Navy Neptune coastal missile systems struck the plant together, setting fire to a warehouse of finished products and damaging four workshops. The plant, one of Russia’s largest chemical producers and sanctioned by the EU, Britain and the United States, makes solid rocket propellant for Uragan, Smerch and Tornado-S rocket launchers, as well as for missiles and aircraft weapons. “Strikes on solid rocket propellant production facilities reduce the Russian army’s ability to attack Ukrainian settlements with multiple-launch rocket systems,” the General Staff said. Ukrainian forces also hit four Russian supply depots near Khartsyzk and Dokuchaievsk in occupied Donetsk, Novovasylivka in occupied Zaporizhzhia and Novoaidar in occupied Luhansk.
About 1,200 kilometers from the border, Ukrainian drones hit the Bashneft-Novoil refinery in Ufa, Bashkortostan, setting fire to its L-35 catalytic reforming unit, a key part of the refining process, Russian outlet Astra reported; footage showed smoke rising over the plant. The monitoring group Crimean Wind said strikes hit several plants in Ufa’s refining complex, which processes about 23.5 million tons a year, including the neighboring Bashneft-UNPZ refinery, and airspace closed over Ufa, Kazan and Samara. It came a day after strikes on the Novokuybyshevsk refinery. Near Moscow, the mayor said 19 drones were shot down and Sheremetyevo airport briefly suspended flights; a Russian blogger posted images of balloons carrying small drones over the Moscow region, and a Ukrainian channel showed smoke rising near the airport.
Istanbul
Erdogan welcomed Zelensky at the Dolmabahce presidential office. “There are important issues concerning shipping in the Black Sea,” Zelensky said before the talks. Ankara called in August for a moratorium on attacks on ships after Turkish-flagged vessels were hit; Kyiv has said it would accept one, while Moscow has shown no interest. Afterward, both leaders pledged to keep the sea lanes open. “Our goal is to ensure that this corridor continues to exist and operates effectively,” Zelensky said. “Turkey consistently supports our sovereignty, our territorial integrity, and our steps that can ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and restore normal living conditions in the Black Sea region.” Erdogan said attacks on civilian vessels “serve no one’s interests.” “We cannot accept these attacks under any circumstances, regardless of who carries them out or what justification is offered,” he said. “At this point, we maintain that there are no losers in a just peace,” he added, recalling the Ukraine-Russia talks Turkey hosted in 2025 and offering to help again.
Zelensky also met Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, spiritual leader of the Eastern Orthodox Church, to discuss Oleshky and peace efforts, thanking him for “constant prayers for peace in Ukraine.” In an interview with This Week on Capitol Hill, Zelensky answered American commentators, including Tucker Carlson, who accuse Kyiv of persecuting religious minorities. Russia has killed about 120 clergy and damaged or destroyed about 800 religious buildings, he said. “Some of them were a thousand years old,” he said. “We are very free,” pointing to the All-Ukrainian Council of Churches and Religious Organizations, which brings together 15 churches and faiths.
At the G20 in Atlanta, Rubio sounded more cautious than the administration has in months, after a year and a half of Trump’s efforts to broker a settlement. He said he could not promise a deal. “I’m not here to tell you we are on the verge of one,” he said, defending Sergey Lavrov’s presence: “How can you have a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine if you don’t have the ability to talk to both Russia and Ukraine?” Lavrov, for his part, said Russia’s position has not changed since 2022, complained about Ukraine’s strikes deep inside Russia and said Europeans were trying to “squeeze” into the talks, even as the Kremlin renews its demand that NATO pull back to its 1997 borders. ISW said Moscow is refusing to compromise on its 2022 demands while its losses grow out of proportion to its gains. Asked about reports that Moscow wants a Putin-Zelensky phone call instead of a meeting, he said: “Don’t trust them,” and repeated that Zelensky “should travel to Moscow.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, asked whether Putin would answer a call, said Zelensky “hasn’t called yet.” Ukrainian officials told the Kyiv Independent they believe Moscow wants a phone call that would achieve little and let Putin avoid meeting Zelensky in person, and that Russia had already tried to arrange one. Zelensky and Putin have spoken only twice by phone and met once, all in 2019 and 2020. Talks in Abu Dhabi are expected in early November, though no date has been set, and Kyiv hopes a first round will at least restart regular negotiations.
The 500 Patriot interceptors Washington approved on Friday may arrive even later than feared. RFE/RL’s Alex Raufoglu reported, citing sources, that they are new missiles with deliveries “not expected until after 2030,” adding that this “does virtually nothing to resolve the acute deficit of interceptors in Ukraine ahead of winter,” and that the Pentagon is still reviewing whether to let Ukraine build them. The PAC-3 MSE is one of the few Western weapons that can stop Russia’s Iskander-M and Kinzhal ballistic missiles, and manufacturer Lockheed Martin says it is investing up to $9 billion through 2030 to expand production, including abroad.
The Line
You hold a position south of Zelenyi Hai, northeast of Borova. A Russian shell lands nearby, and in doing so confirms that your unit has moved forward.
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Borova. A source close to Russia’s Northern Group of Forces claimed Ukrainian troops entered Yunakivka, north of Sumy, and that Russia is losing many men there to Ukrainian drones. North of Kharkiv, Joint Forces spokesperson Col. Viktor Trehubov acknowledged that Russian forces advanced near Hraniv on the border, focusing on widening their foothold rather than pushing deeper into Kozacha Lopan.
Russian attacks near Kupyansk produced no confirmed gains despite Russian bloggers’ claims of advances in Mala Shapkivka, Myrove and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. Near Lyman and east of Sloviansk, Russia made no progress as Ukrainian forces counterattacked. Russian infiltrators reached northern and northwestern Kostiantynivka and northern Dobropillia, where Ukrainian drones struck them, and a Ukrainian sergeant said Russia keeps massing tanks and armored vehicles near Dobropillia.
In the south, Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Reaction Corps said it killed or wounded about 900 Russian troops near Hulyaipole in a week, its highest weekly toll since August, and that Russia’s 5th Army is replacing a battered brigade. Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said Russia holds a large infiltration zone near Orikhiv, between Chervona Krynytsia, Charivne and Bilohirya. The Velykyi Burluk, Novopavlivka and Kherson directions were quiet.
Behind the lines, satellite images confirmed that Thursday’s Neptune strike on Marinovka airfield in the Volgograd region destroyed two Su-34 bombers. Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps released footage of a Hornet drone hitting a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Tarasivka in occupied Luhansk, about 44 kilometers behind the front, and the 1st Azov Corps said earlier in the week that its drones had hit more than 100 railcars and locomotives in Volnovakha, Yasynuvata, Yenakiieve, Donetsk, Debaltseve and Dovzhansk. The pressure shows in Crimea: the head of the peninsula’s freight carriers’ association said the number of trucks driving from Rostov to Crimea has fallen from 2,000 to 3,000 a day to 600 to 800.
The Economist estimated that Russia has suffered between 1.4 million and 2.1 million killed and wounded since 2022, including 374,000 to 770,000 dead, up from its May estimate of 280,000 to 518,000 dead and 190,000 to 350,000 in July 2025, and that Ukraine retook 73 square kilometers in the past three months, about half of Russia’s net gains this year. The independent project UALosses counts 116,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 106,000 missing.
Also Today
A threat in Moscow. The U.S. Embassy warned of a “credible threat” of a mass-casualty attack at the Tsaritsyno museum park in southern Moscow and said it was coordinating with Russian authorities; the FSB confirmed receiving the warning. In 2024, an Islamic State attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall killed more than 140 people; Putin claimed without evidence that Ukraine was involved, which Kyiv denies.
North Koreans in Russian factories. The Hague-based Global Rights Compliance reported that Russian brokers bring North Korean workers on student visas to work 12-hour shifts in defense-linked plants, including one making field rations, with most of their pay going to Pyongyang. It traced one network to Moscow businessman Vladimir Sokolov’s Black Horse group, which charged up to 150,000 rubles per worker. North Korea has also sent an estimated 14,000 to 15,000 troops to help Russia.
Strikes by the numbers. ACLED counted 290 Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in the 30 days to October 23, killing at least 62 civilians, and Russia’s long-range missions rose from 130 in June to 453 in September, The Economist reported. Ukraine carried out about 140 long-range strikes a month on targets inside Russia over the same period.
The Closing
Tonight, families from Oleshky are sleeping in Ukraine for the first time in years, and some of their neighbors are sleeping in Russia. In the Dnipro region, 200,000 homes are dark. The truce that brought them out ends on Sunday night. Ukraine kept its word for five days. It asks the world to remember that it is ready to keep it for much longer.
A Prayer for Ukraine
1. For Those Who Defend
Lord of hosts, bless the soldiers near Borova and Yunakivka who push forward, and those near Hraniv, Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka and Hulyaipole who hold the line against wave after wave. Guard the Navy crews and drone teams who strike the factories of war. Give them rest, courage and the strength to return home whole to the families who pray for them.
2. For the Wounded and the Grieving
God of all comfort, receive the two killed in Sloviansk, and the dead near Nikopol and in Zaporizhzhia region. Heal the wounded of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava and Kyiv regions, the two elderly men of Poltava region, and calm the hearts of those in shock. Be near to every family keeping vigil tonight in hospitals and in homes without light, and give them warmth and hope.
3. For Those Who Lead
King of kings, give President Zelensky wisdom as he seeks peace in Istanbul, Washington and every hall where Ukraine’s future is weighed. Bless President Erdogan and Patriarch Bartholomew for their care. Grant Secretary Rubio and every negotiator honesty and courage, and let no peace be made that rewards the one who strikes the innocent or forgets the ones who suffered.
4. For the People of Oleshky
Faithful God, welcome home the elderly, the children and the families who crossed four borders to return to their own land. Heal what years of hunger, isolation and fear have done to them, and protect them as they rebuild their lives. Watch over those who went to Russia and those who stayed behind, and let every separated family find one another again in peace and safety.
5. For a People Who Keep Standing
Father, Ukraine’s churches have been burned and its clergy killed, yet its people still pray. Sustain the repair crews in the dark, the volunteers at the border and every heart that refuses to despair. In Your mercy, in Your justice, in Your time — bring this war to its end, and let the ending be worthy of what Ukraine has endured.