Summary of the day: Ukraine’s intelligence has unveiled that Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are jointly training Russian drone operators in Syria, while the Russian State Duma is pushing legislation to bar entry to those associated with entities it deems “undesirable.” In the political sphere, Boris Nadezhdin, the sole openly anti-war candidate in Russia’s presidential race, is challenging his disqualification, signaling a crackdown on political dissent. Meanwhile, the European Union eyes the utilization of frozen Russian assets to bolster Ukraine’s defense efforts. On the ground, Ukrainian forces are gaining ground in strategic areas, though Russian troops have also made significant advances. Adding to the geopolitical tension, North Korea’s development of a new guided multiple rocket launcher system, potentially destined for Russia, underscores the international dimensions of the conflict.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
In recent developments along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have secured minor territorial advancements. Notably, Russian units have made slight progress in areas northwest of Synkivka-Lake Lyman and east of Terny, positioning them closer to key strategic points. Conversely, Ukrainian forces have successfully reclaimed tactical positions near Yampolivka, demonstrating the ongoing and dynamic nature of the conflict. The battles have been characterized by sustained positional fighting across several critical fronts, indicating a continued tug-of-war for control in the region.
Russian forces have made tactical advances west of Bakhmut, engaging in intense positional battles across key locations. Claims from Russian military bloggers suggest movements up to 0.6 miles (1km) towards strategic points along the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar highway and surrounding areas, although these claims lack independent visual confirmation. The combat zone, echoing with the strife of ongoing encounters, sees the involvement of specialized units marking a significant escalation in the battle for control in and around Bakhmut.
Amid ongoing skirmishes near Avdiivka, Russian forces have reportedly made progress, with some milbloggers asserting a breach past the railway line into strategic areas, though these claims remain unverified. The battlefront extends through various key locations, including advances reported along Chystyakova Street and Zaliznychnyi Lane, as well as movements near Opytne and into Pervomaiske, yet no visual evidence corroborates these advances. The intensification of conflict around Avdiivka is marked by increased Russian deployment of armored vehicles and tanks, suggesting a heightened push for control in the region.
In recent clashes around Donetsk City, Ukrainian forces achieved slight advancements southwest of the city, as shown by geolocated footage indicating progress near Pobieda. Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers report advances by Russian forces along key highways towards Pobieda and in surrounding areas, although these movements are part of broader ongoing positional battles that include Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka. The region witnesses a complex military presence, with various Russian military units actively engaging in different directions around Donetsk City.
The Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area witnessed continued positional engagements with no significant shifts in the frontline reported. Despite a Russian military blogger’s assertion of a 0.6-mile (1km) advance near Vodiane, north of Vuhledar, this claim lacks independent visual confirmation. The conflict persisted across several locations, including north of Vuhledar near Vodiane, as well as southeast and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Prechystivka and Pryyutne respectively.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukrainian forces have achieved a tactical advancement, amidst ongoing battles in the region. The progress, captured in geolocated footage, showcases Ukrainian movement west of Pyatykhaty near Kamianske, although the timing of this advance remains unclear. Despite Russian claims of gains near Novoprokopivka, there’s no independent verification to support these assertions. The Ukrainian General Staff notes failed Russian attacks near Robotyne and Novopokrovka.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks in the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, specifically targeting the area near Krynky.
Ukraine News
Overnight on February 11-12, Russian forces escalated their aerial assault on Ukraine, deploying 17 Shahed drones, a Kh-59 cruise missile, and several S-300 missiles targeting the Ukrainian rear. The Ukrainian air defenses successfully neutralized most of the threat, downing 14 Shahed drones and the Kh-59 across multiple regions including Khmelnitsky and Vinnytsia, showcasing the resilience and efficiency of Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Additionally, the strikes led to significant damage in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, and Lyubotyn, Kharkiv Oblast, impacting residential and energy infrastructure and leaving tens of thousands without power in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlighting the broad and disruptive impact of these attacks on civilian life.
Ukraine’s largest private energy provider, DTEK, reported that one of its thermal power plants was heavily damaged by Russian shelling overnight, forcing it to halt electricity production. The location of the plant has not been disclosed for security reasons. This attack is part of a broader pattern of strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which has caused extensive power outages and service disruptions for civilians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly planning a tour of Western Europe, aiming to align his visit with the Munich Security Conference in an effort to secure military aid. Amid a funding deadlock in Washington, Zelensky’s tour is set to include key European capitals like Paris and Berlin, although details remain unconfirmed. His engagements will likely address urgent military needs and discussions on security guarantees, against the backdrop of the U.S. and Germany underscoring the critical impact of Congressional delays on Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
A former Ukrainian police officer has been charged with treason for allegedly aiding a Russian missile strike on a village in Kharkiv Oblast that resulted in 59 civilian deaths. The attack, which was the deadliest against Ukrainian civilians in 2023, occurred during a memorial service in the village of Hroza. The Security Service of Ukraine has accused two brothers from the region of orchestrating the strike, with one now facing charges after the pair reportedly fled to Russia.
Oleksandr Liyev, formerly overseeing weapons procurement for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, was arrested following a High Anti-Corruption Court order, linked to a corruption case involving the misappropriation of funds for mortar shell purchases valued at nearly $40 million. Detained directly in court, Liyev faces potential pre-trial detention until April 8, pending a $1.3 million bail. This case, part of a broader investigation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), implicates several high-ranking defense officials and private arms suppliers in a scheme that failed to deliver the contracted arms despite upfront payments. Liyev, asserting his innocence, plans to challenge the court’s decision, questioning the bail amount relative to his financial means and considering an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights.
Former Ukrainian lawmaker Serhii Pashynskyi and five others have been charged by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) for the alleged misappropriation of nearly 100,000 tons of state-owned oil in 2014. The scheme involved creating a state company to confiscate the oil from businessman Serhii Kurchenko, then selling it through associated companies, leading to state losses of approximately $26.3 million. Pashynskyi, who has been a significant figure in Ukraine’s arms procurement since the conflict’s escalation, faces up to 12 years in prison if convicted, with ongoing investigations into the fraud that spans nearly a decade.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is significantly boosting its domestic drone production, with plans to manufacture thousands of long-range drones in 2024, including loitering munitions capable of reaching distances between 300 and 1,000 kilometers. Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov also announced an ambitious goal to produce over a million first-person view (FPV) drones next year, highlighting a dramatic increase in drone deliveries in December 2023 compared to the entire year of 2022. The Ukrainian government is facilitating this surge through market deregulation and increased financial support, aiming for a substantial portion of drone components to be domestically produced by the end of 2024.
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. Senate has advanced a $95.3 billion foreign aid package, which is expected to be voted on by February 14. The bill, which successfully passed a critical vote with bipartisan support, includes significant aid for Ukraine and Israel. However, its fate in the House is less certain, with concerns raised about domestic issues like U.S. border security. President Biden has emphasized the importance of supporting allies through this bill.
The European Union is moving forward with plans to leverage frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, with a new rule requiring that any profits from assets over one million euros held by the Russian Central Bank be segregated. This action paves the way for potentially using these proceeds to fund Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction efforts. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has applauded the move and urged for rapid and bold measures to utilize the frozen assets for Ukraine’s benefit.
Germany has pledged an additional 100 million euros (approximately $108 million) in military support to Ukraine, as announced by German Chief of Defense General Carsten Breuer. Further bolstering this support, German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has initiated construction of a new facility in Lüneburg Heath, Lower Saxony, aimed at augmenting Germany’s production of artillery shells. This expansion is not only intended to support Ukraine but also to sustain Germany’s own ammunition supplies. Rheinmetall’s CEO, Armin Papperger, revealed that the new factory, set to be operational by 2025, will have the capacity to produce 200,000 artillery shells annually, with plans to deliver several hundred thousand shells to Ukraine in 2024.
The 2024 Munich Security Index indicates a significant decrease in the perception of Russia as a threat among G7 and BRICS nations compared to last year. The survey, conducted annually ahead of the Munich Security Conference, has noted a decline in concerns related to Russia’s war against Ukraine, such as nuclear weapon use and energy supply disruptions. Over 12,000 individuals from 12 countries were interviewed about 32 major global risks. In the latest findings, Russia’s threat level has fallen in the eyes of G7 countries, moving from the top concern in 2022 to the fourth in 2023. Environmental threats remain the predominant global concern, with increased anxiety over mass migration, terrorism, and organized crime. While Ukraine continues to be seen as an ally, this view is less pronounced than in the previous year. The Munich Security Conference, where these issues will be discussed, excludes Russia and Iran from its 2023 edition.
Austria is actively seeking to end its reliance on Russian gas, with the Energy Minister announcing plans to potentially terminate a long-standing contract with Gazprom. Although the country has committed to reducing this dependency, recent statistics show that Russian gas still accounts for a majority of Austria’s imports. In response, legislative actions are being considered to mandate energy companies to diversify their gas sources more quickly.
Katrin Goring-Eckhardt, Vice President of the German Bundestag, is in Kyiv for talks, with a focus on the issue of Ukrainian children forcibly taken to Russia. She emphasizes the need for military support and the return of these children, highlighting a critical human rights concern. Goring-Eckhardt also urges Germany to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine, a request that has been under consideration since May 2023 and has met with resistance from Chancellor Scholz due to concerns about escalating Germany’s involvement in the conflict.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned of potential anti-Ukrainian sentiment amid economic disputes, as Polish farmers protest against Ukrainian imports by blocking border crossings and spilling grain. Tusk, affirming Poland’s support for Ukraine against Russia, noted that profiteering under the guise of war is unacceptable. Agricultural trade disputes have strained Poland-Ukraine relations, with the EU lifting tariffs on Ukrainian goods in 2022, prompting complaints from Polish farmers about unfair competition. Despite a grain import ban by Poland’s previous government, other products continue to cross borders, leading to ongoing protests and roadblocks by Polish farmers and the Solidarity trade union, reflecting both solidarity with Ukraine and domestic economic pressures.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian efforts to integrate Ukrainian youth into pro-Russian initiatives continue, with the occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast facilitating the participation of local youth in the “Russia” international exhibition-forum in Moscow. This initiative, backed by the Russian Federal Agency of Youth Affairs (Rosmolodezh), offers grants for projects aimed at bolstering media and social networking in the occupied regions. This strategy appears to serve as both a method to foster pro-Russian sentiment among Ukrainian youth and to consolidate Russian social influence in the territories it occupies.
Russia News
The Russian State Duma is advancing a bill aimed at barring entry to Russia for individuals linked to entities deemed “undesirable” by the government, targeting opposition media and foreign NGOs. This legislation, introduced by Vasily Piskarev, seeks to extend control over Russia’s information space by restricting foreign journalists and NGOs from reporting or operating within the country, further consolidating the Kremlin’s efforts to suppress dissent ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Boris Nadezhdin, the sole anti-war candidate in the Russian presidential race, has taken legal action against the Central Election Commission’s decision to not register him as a candidate, highlighting the Kremlin’s efforts to curb opposition while maintaining an appearance of electoral legitimacy. Nadezhdin’s legal battles, alongside the Kremlin’s manipulative tactics to potentially adjust election outcomes, underscore the ongoing suppression of dissent and the challenges faced by independent observers and NGOs, such as the European-based Russian Election Monitor, now branded “undesirable” by Russia for allegedly undermining the election’s legitimacy.
The International Ice Hockey Federation has excluded Russian and Belarusian teams from the 2024/2025 season due to safety concerns. This decision also affects Belarus’s participation in the Olympic qualifiers. The eligibility of these teams for future IIHF seasons and the Olympics will be assessed in May 2025, amidst ongoing appeals against Olympic bans.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
For the first time since the full-scale conflict began, Russia has used a 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile against Ukraine, according to Kyiv’s forensic expert Oleksandr Ruvin. Details like the unique markings “3L22” and production dates on missile fragments suggest recent manufacture, contradicting Russia’s claims about the missile’s capabilities. Ongoing analysis of the debris is challenging the advertised performance characteristics of the Zircon, which Russia has only recently added to its military arsenal.
The FSB is reportedly playing a significant role in drafting conscripts for combat in Ukraine, challenging Russia’s official stance that conscripts aren’t sent to the warzone. Instances of conscripts aboard engaged Russian naval vessels have surfaced, and a legal amendment now allows conscript service in the FSB’s Border Service, establishing a formal pathway for their involvement in the conflict.
Russian firm Hardberry-Rusfaktor has introduced “Naka,” an AI software for drones, enhancing their ability to autonomously detect and locate objects with 85% accuracy. The AI can identify various enemy equipment and is compatible with multiple drone models. It is notably efficient in recognizing NATO military gear like Leopard tanks and Bradley vehicles, showcasing its precision targeting potential.
Russia Allies
Ukraine’s intelligence reports indicate that Russian drone operators are being trained at Syria’s Shayrat Air Base by Lebanese Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, focusing on various Iranian-made drones. This collaboration underscores the deepening military cooperation between Russia, Iranian-backed militias, and Lebanese Hezbollah, particularly in enhancing Russia’s drone capabilities within the strategic framework of their operations in Syria.
North Korea has reportedly developed a 240mm guided multiple rocket launcher system, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, raising the possibility of its export to Russia. This development coincides with reports from Ukrainian intelligence and U.S. officials that North Korea has supplied Russia with significant military aid.
The Belarusian Ambassador to Russia has indicated potential collaboration with Russia in aircraft and microelectronics production, which may serve as a tactic to circumvent sanctions. This comes after Ukrainian observations that Russian Kalibr missiles contain foreign-made microelectronics.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
Russian media and state officials are actively promoting narratives to create rifts between Western nations and Ukraine, and internally within Ukraine. The SVR, through TASS, claims the West seeks to dominate Ukraine by appointing a “viceroy,” implying a lack of Ukrainian sovereignty. Russian military bloggers are using European protests to press for diminished support for Ukraine, while Russian campaigns malign Ukrainian military leaders to destabilize Ukraine’s internal unity and its alliances.
Russian leaders continue to deflect blame for the conflict and peace talk failures onto Ukraine and the West, asserting their own peace efforts. Putin further framed the invasion as essential, challenging Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Russian media is disseminating claims that the West, with Ukrainian assistance, conducted biological experiments in Ukraine to justify its occupation. Reports from RIA Novosti allege that from 2008 to 2016, Western pharmaceuticals tested on children in Mariupol, leveraging such narratives to portray Russia as a protector against Western abuses.
A Kremlin-linked milblogger is laying the groundwork to rationalize potential Russian moves against Moldova, though it’s not certain how closely these actions are guided by the Kremlin itself. The narrative being pushed suggests Moldova’s growing alignment with NATO and Ukraine, and a propensity to forcefully tackle the Transnistria issue, could escalate its involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)