Summary of the day: Ukraine’s recent aggressive strategies, including drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and a suspected involvement in an explosion disabling a Russian missile carrier, indicate a heightened phase of tactical warfare. Meanwhile, internal Russian discourse reveals contradictions, with some milbloggers boasting of Russian military superiority over Ukraine, while others critique the military’s inefficiencies leading to significant infantry losses. Amidst this, Russian forces have secured advances near key locations such as Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City, underscoring the ongoing and intensifying conflict dynamics. Additionally, Russia’s strategic move to bolster its defense industrial base through increased production directives from President Vladimir Putin reflects a long-term preparation for sustained conflict, amid challenges posed by international sanctions.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The governor of Gagauzia, a pro-Russian region in Moldova, claimed that Romania controls Moldova’s government, suggesting Moldova lacks sovereignty. This statement, part of Kremlin efforts to discredit pro-Western European governments, implies potential consequences for Gagauzia if it attempts to secede from Moldova, including possible military responses and the end of Moldovan identity in case of unification with Romania. These comments align with Russia’s broader strategy to justify potential aggression by portraying target states as under foreign control, thereby undermining their sovereignty. This tactic is consistent with Russia’s narrative against Western influence in its geopolitical conflict, extending to other regions and reflecting ongoing efforts to destabilize Moldova and prevent its closer ties with the EU.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian military bloggers are engaging in heated debates over military tactics and the portrayal of Russian forces’ capabilities versus their actual performance in Ukraine. Criticisms focus on risky tactics like transporting infantry on armored vehicles to frontlines, exposing them to enemy fire. Despite these tactics not being new, recent scrutiny and incidents have sparked controversy among the milbloggers. Some defend these practices as necessary due to equipment shortages, while others criticize them as reckless, highlighting the discrepancy between Russia’s official narratives and the harsh realities on the ground. Discussions also contrast Russian media’s focus on Ukrainian setbacks with Russia’s similar challenges, emphasizing the difference between public propaganda and the actual situation experienced by soldiers. This discourse reveals deep concerns about the effectiveness of Russian strategies and the truthful acknowledgment of losses.
Ukraine’s military intelligence revealed that Russia’s reconnaissance abilities have been compromised following Ukraine’s regained control of oil drilling platforms in the Black Sea last autumn. These platforms, including the Boyko Towers, previously seized by Russia after the 2014 annexation of Crimea, were equipped with radar and helipads by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces dismantled the radar system during the operation, limiting Russia’s monitoring capabilities. The regained control expands Ukraine’s military operations in the Black Sea region, narrowing Russia’s influence.
The Ukrainian Border Service reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are carrying out small-scale cross-border raids into Ukraine, especially targeting the Sumy region.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces achieved slight territorial gains near Kreminna, with recent engagements focusing along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Footage and reports from April 7 and 8 highlight minor advances southwest and southeast of Bilohorivka, south of Kreminna, involving Chechen special forces and other units. Continued skirmishes also occurred near Terny, west of Kreminna.
Russian forces have made recent advances in areas surrounding Bakhmut, particularly northwest of the city, including southwestern Bohdanivka. Despite claims of further advances in nearby regions like Hryhorivka and areas east and southeast of Chasiv Yar, these have not been independently verified. The main Russian goal appears to be crossing the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal near Chasiv Yar, facing challenges from heavily mined Ukrainian defenses. Ongoing fights are reported near Bakhmut, involving significant Russian airborne and motorized units, with the situation remaining dynamic and contested.
Russian forces made initial territorial gains north of Avdiivka, seizing areas including a forest near Novokalynove and a nearby building. However, Ukrainian forces counterattacked, retaking some positions and maintaining a buffer zone around Novokalynove. As the conflict continues, heavy fighting persists near Avdiivka, with both sides engaged in dynamic positional battles along multiple fronts. This seesawing of control, with neither side securing a definitive advantage, is indicative of the ongoing and highly contested nature of the conflict.
Further intensifying the situation, Russian forces have also employed a combination of air strikes and ground offensives to advance around the village of Tonenke, west of Avdiivka. These offensives have been marked by the deployment of half-ton glide bombs from Su-34 fighter bombers, actions that have been publicly broadcast by the Russian Defense Ministry. Despite these aggressive maneuvers and Russian claims of capturing Tonenke, Ukrainian defenses remain resilient, with pro-Kyiv sources asserting that their forces continue to hold key positions amid the superior firepower of Russian forces.
Russian forces have made recent advances southwest of Donetsk City, with mechanized units moving north of Novomykhailivka. Both Ukrainian and Russian reports indicate ongoing clashes in areas west and southwest of Donetsk, including near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda. The frontline activity has intensified from southwest Donetsk to the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border over the past week.
In the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, specifically near Staromayorske south of Velyka Novosilka, there were minor positional clashes.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, skirmishes persisted without any shifts in the frontline. The conflicts were concentrated near Robotyne and to the northwest of Verbove.
Skirmishes persisted in the eastern part of Kherson Oblast, particularly around Krynky, without any reported shifts in frontlines.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 3 people and the injuries to at least 20 others:
- Russian forces targeted a residential building in Poltava Oblast late, killing one person and injuring 10 others, including three children. The attack occurred at night damaging the building and causing a fire. Nearby houses were also reportedly affected.
- Russian air strikes on Sumy Oblast resulted in one woman killed and at least five others injured, Ukrainian authorities reported. The strikes targeted civilian areas, including a facility in Sumy city and the center of Bilopillia, damaging infrastructure and causing casualties.
- Russian attacks struck Chasiv Yar and Selydove in Donetsk Oblast killing one person and injuring five others, including a teenage girl. In Chasiv Yar, a 77-year-old woman died, and six houses were damaged. In Selydove, an apartment building was hit, causing injuries to five residents, including the teenager. Authorities are determining the type of weaponry used in the Selydove attack.
The aftermath of a Russian air strike on Bilopillia
An apartment building in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, catches fire following a Russian attack
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile attacks against Ukraine, firing 24 Shahed drones and a Kh-59 cruise missile from various locations, including occupied territories. Ukrainian defenses successfully intercepted 20 drones and the cruise missile across multiple regions, while Russian forces targeted infrastructure and specific facilities, causing unspecified damage. Ukrainian air defense units destroyed all Shahed-type drones launched by Russia overnight. Additionally, at least four S-300 missiles were fired from occupied parts of Donetsk Oblast, targeting various Ukrainian regions. These attacks are part of ongoing daily assaults, with Russian forces aiming to disrupt Ukraine’s civilian areas, particularly energy infrastructure.
Ukraine’s Energy Minister, Herman Halushchenko, highlighted Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, targeting up to 80% of thermal power plants, hydroelectric facilities, and substations. These precise missile strikes aim to cause irreversible damage, exacerbated by a shortage of Western air defense systems. Moscow focuses on regions outside Kyiv, striking seven thermal power plants and two hydroelectric plants between March 22 and 29, aiming for permanent damage. Limited air defense systems make it challenging to defend against costly ballistic missiles. Despite this, Ukraine’s reliance on renewable energy and EU imports mitigates widespread blackouts, with solar power contributing 20-25% of energy needs.
Meanwhile, Andrii Cherniak, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence, confirmed Russian forces’ use of newly manufactured missiles for extensive assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in March. Over 400 missiles and 600 Shahed-type drones targeted energy facilities, with drones targeting components like transformers. Cherniak warned of potential future large-scale attacks, as Russia possesses enough missiles for one or two more assaults. Damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure reportedly surpassed that of the previous winter, with 80% of DTEK’s thermal generating capacity affected. Maksym Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, aims to restore operations by October. Among the targets hit were the Zmiiv, Burshtyn, and Ladyzhyn Thermal Power Plants.
President Zelensky highlighted the urgent need for more air defense in Kharkiv following continuous Russian aerial attacks that resulted in civilian casualties, including seven deaths and 11 injuries. Concurrently, four civilians were killed and 20 wounded in Zaporizhzhia on April 5. The Economist reported on April 7 that Russian strikes against Kharkiv aim to render the city uninhabitable for civilians, utilizing missiles, glide bombs, and drones to target energy infrastructure. Despite the onslaught, Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov emphasized the city’s resilience, seeking additional support amid delayed U.S. aid for air defense. While Russia’s objectives for Kharkiv remain unclear, Ukrainian officials remain vigilant, with President Zelensky affirming the city’s defense against potential threats.
Switzerland plans to host a global peace summit on Ukraine’s conflict with Russia in mid-June, inviting 80-100 countries to discuss Kyiv’s peace plan. The proposal includes withdrawing Russian troops, restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty, releasing prisoners, and ensuring security. Moscow rejected the plan and won’t attend the summit. The conference might happen on June 16-17 in Lucerne, but details are still uncertain. The participation of China, a key player, remains unclear, despite Western pressure for its involvement in peace efforts. Ukraine aims for a broad agreement before direct negotiations with Russia.
Ukrainian forces are bolstering defenses along the borders with Russia and Belarus, as stated by State Border Guard spokesperson Andrii Demchenko on April 8. President Zelensky announced the construction of 2,000 kilometers of fortifications across three defensive lines, allocating Hr 20 billion ($512 million) for the project in 2024. Demchenko highlighted ongoing efforts to strengthen defenses in northern regions and along the state borders. Despite no signs of Russian forces near the Belarus border, Demchenko warned of Belarus’s support for Russian aggression. Russian attacks persist near the borders, particularly in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy oblasts. Zelensky inspected fortification progress during a visit to Chernihiv Oblast, where regional authorities confirmed the creation of barriers and strongholds along the entire Russia-Belarus border.
Approximately 100 people rallied at Kyiv’s Saint Sophia Square on April 7, urging Russia to release civilian hostages. Co-organized by Zmina, the rally aimed to free captives, including those from Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant. Children held signs with words like “despair” and “hate.” The event depicted the suffering of Ukrainians in Russian prisons, with displays symbolizing liberation efforts. Around 28,000 Ukrainian civilians remain captive, with 30,000 more missing since February. Conditions for captives are dire, lacking proper care and subjected to human rights abuses.
The Reintegration Ministry announced the evacuation of nearly 300 children from Sumy, a northeastern region bordering Russia, for safety reasons. Constant cross-border shelling from Russia since February 2022 has prompted this decision.
Ukraine and Hungary agreed to open a new border crossing for passenger vehicles at Velyka Palad-Nagyhodos and expand the Luzhanka-Berehshuran crossing for empty vehicles over 7.5 tons. Currently, there are five road crossings between the two countries, but only one allows trucks over 7.5 tons. The move aims to ease traffic amid ongoing protests at the Polish border and enhance export opportunities. The agreement was signed by Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister and Hungary’s Ambassador to Ukraine. Plans for further border checkpoints and joint customs control are underway to streamline border crossings.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavliuk urges citizens to join the military due to manpower shortages. He highlighted plans to enhance recruitment efforts in 2024, aiming to improve the enlistment system. Pavliuk clarified that conscripts wouldn’t immediately engage in combat upon joining. Two new recruitment centers were established in Lviv and Zaporizhia to offer more options.
The Ukrainian Defense Minister established an Audit Committee to advise the Ministry’s Internal Audit Department. This new body includes Ukrainian defense officials and auditors from NATO and the US Department of Defense.
Ukraine has introduced a new electronic warfare system, the Ai-Petri SV, to the Avdiivka sector on the eastern front. This system can jam Russian drones up to 20 kilometers away and pinpoint their operators’ locations. It’s equipped with EW and radar stations, anti-drone technology, secure communication, and its own power supply. Funded by former President Poroshenko’s NGO with $3.8 million, the Ai-Petri SV was developed without state funds. It’s designed to disrupt drone navigation and communication and can potentially disable certain Russian drones. Poroshenko’s party claims the system was built in five months, a fraction of the usual development time, and five units have been delivered to the Ukrainian military for immediate deployment after training.
Ukraine’s Allies
The Financial Times highlighted that Europe’s defense industry, crucial for supplying ammunition to Ukraine, depends on Chinese cotton to make gunpowder. Major companies like Rheinmetall, Saab, and BAE Systems are concerned that strained relations with China could disrupt their supply of cotton linters, an essential ingredient in nitrocellulose for explosives. Over 70% of these linters come from China, dominating almost half of the world’s market share.
Western countries are actively supporting Ukraine’s military needs. Estonia is ready to buy and send artillery and missiles to Ukraine with funding from allies, while the EU, the Czech Republic, and the UK could supply up to 2.5 million projectiles by 2024. Lithuania has already delivered command vehicles, and the Netherlands plans to send 24 F-16 fighter jets after Denmark starts its promised transfers in summer 2024. Lithuania also pledged funds for Ukraine to buy 3,000 drones from the UK. Additionally, Latvia provided a 10-million-euro aid package for Ukraine’s reconstruction and military support.
Canada allocated over $2 billion to support Ukraine’s budget in March amid ongoing Russian bombardment and an 11-year invasion. Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland cited the U.S.’s inability to provide support as a reason for Canada’s aid. Ukraine’s first-quarter budget deficit was around $5 billion, representing 23.6% of spending. The country received a record $9 billion in external aid in March.
Actor Mark Hamill, historian Timothy Snyder, and other public figures joined a video conference call with President Volodymyr Zelensky as part of the United 24 fundraising platform. The platform, established by Zelensky, is approaching its biannual anniversary on May 5. Zelensky thanked participants for their support and contributions to the platform, which includes figures like astronaut Scott Kelly, chef José Andrés, and actress Ivanna Sakhno. The platform has raised over $625 million from donors in 110 countries, funding various aid efforts including drones, electronic warfare systems, demining equipment, and reconstruction projects.
Denmark pledged $5.8 million in aid for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during Danish Energy Minister Lars Aagaard’s visit to Kyiv. This aid aims to bolster Ukraine’s resilience against Russian attacks on critical energy facilities, including hydroelectric power plants. Russia’s intensified strikes have significantly damaged Ukraine’s energy capacity, affecting 80% of DTEK’s thermal power capacity. Aagaard emphasized the importance of fortifying Ukraine’s energy systems against further assaults, highlighting the partnership between Denmark and Ukraine in renewable energy, particularly in biogas development.
The European Union has reached a provisional deal with European Parliament representatives to extend the suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports to the EU until June 2025, but with new restrictions on agriculture products. If adopted, the restrictions will reintroduce tariff quotas on certain products if export volumes exceed previous years. This follows protests from Polish and Romanian farmers and truckers concerned about uneven competition and market disruptions due to increased grain imports from Ukraine. The EU seeks to enhance monitoring of grain imports and use tools to address market disruptions.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukraine refutes any involvement in attacks on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), challenging Russian allegations of Ukrainian drone strikes on April 7. Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Russia may orchestrate such attacks to falsely implicate Ukraine. Despite Russian claims of downing a Ukrainian drone over ZNPP, resulting in no significant damage or casualties, Ukraine maintains its non-involvement in strikes against the nuclear facility. Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department, through spokesperson Matthew Miller, voiced concerns over the strikes during a press conference. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verified direct strikes on the main reactor containment structures, marking the first incident of its kind since November 2022. Drone strikes inflicted physical damage at one reactor, causing one casualty. Despite the damage to unit 6, nuclear safety remains unaffected. The ZNPP, Europe’s largest nuclear plant, has been under Russian occupation since March 2022, with rotating IAEA teams stationed there since September 2022.
Russia News
Ukraine’s military intelligence is believed to have orchestrated a successful operation damaging the Russian missile ship Serpukhov at the Baltiysk Naval Base in Kaliningrad on April 7. The attack reportedly caused significant damage to the ship’s systems, with repairs expected to be prolonged. Although the extent of the damage remains unconfirmed, Ukrainian sources have asserted responsibility. The operation coincided with increased electronic warfare exercises by Russian forces in the region, previously linked to GPS disruptions in the Baltic. Casualty reports are still unverified as assessments continue. This marks the first assault on Russian naval assets in the Baltic Sea by Ukraine, following a pattern of Ukrainian actions targeting Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, leading to vessel relocations. The Serpukhov, a Buyan-M missile corvette, measuring 74 meters in length and armed with various weapons, was affected.
A fire broke out on the Russian ice navigation vessel Katerina Velikaya during repairs at a shipyard in Vladivostok, as reported by Russia’s Far Eastern Prosecutor’s Office. The incident resulted in one fatality and three injuries, with investigations ongoing. Katerina Velikaya, an Icebreaker 7-class vessel built in 2020, is capable of operating in Arctic conditions and performing various maritime tasks.
Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian oil facilities have significantly impacted Russia’s refinery capacity, causing a scramble for gasoline imports. Russia reportedly sought an “emergency reserve” of gasoline from Kazakhstan to mitigate potential shortages caused by these strikes. Despite denials from a Kazakh official, the situation reflects Russia’s growing concern over its domestic gasoline supply, leading to increased imports from Belarus and potentially Kazakhstan, after losing about 14% of its oil refining capability to Ukrainian drone actions.
The Russian Volunteer Corps declared the end of their incursions into Russian border regions from Ukraine on April 7. Their raids, along with other anti-Kremlin militias, aimed to create a “second front” and relieve pressure on Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed these actions altered Russia’s plans for a new attack. Sabotage and reconnaissance groups remain in Russia, per the Russian Volunteer Corps. Casualties and captured soldiers were reported, with disputed figures on Russian losses. Initially downplayed, Russia later acknowledged strikes and began evacuations from affected areas in Belgorod Oblast.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian government has aligned benefits for Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) volunteers in Ukraine with those of Ministry of Defense volunteer units. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s decree impacts approximately 35,000 Rosgvardia personnel stationed in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed the government and KONAR JSC to boost the production of machine tool components, aiming to strengthen Russia’s defense industry and counteract international sanctions. He emphasized the need for local production of these components and increasing the manufacture of domestic ship parts. Following a 30-year decline, Russia’s machine tool production reportedly surged by over 60% by the end of 2023, despite sanctions. Russia continues to acquire precision tools from abroad, including China, to produce military equipment.
Under Industry Director Bekhan Ozdoyev, Rostec, a key player in Russia’s defense sector, has not only increased its output significantly in 2023 but also pushed forward with new weapons development for use in Ukraine. The state-owned defense conglomerate now accounts for 90% of the military equipment utilized by Russian forces, marking an impressive escalation in production: tenfold for self-propelled artillery, fourteenfold for towed artillery, twentyfold for mortars, and a doubling in multiple rocket launch systems. Ammunition supply has seen a twenty-fivefold increase, with factories operating continuously. Among Rostec’s innovative strides is the creation of a TOS-3 thermobaric artillery system on a tracked vehicle, offering a longer firing range than its predecessors. The company has also pioneered the use of wood and flax cellulose in gunpowder manufacturing, devised specialized drone munitions, and developed new ammunition capable of piercing improved armor. Additionally, a 30mm high-explosive fragmentation projectile designed for tank support combat vehicles has passed state testing. The year also saw the roll-out of several advanced military systems, including the 2S43 Malva wheeled howitzer, the 2S41 Drok mortar, and the 2S38 Derivatsiya-PVO air defense system, reflecting Rostec’s comprehensive enhancement of Russia’s military capabilities.
Russian military units in Ukraine are deploying new armaments, including the first reported use of RBK-500 Shoab-0.5 fragmentation aerial bombs. Additionally, testing is underway for a new robotic mine-clearing vehicle known as “Stalker,” with footage showing its use near Avdiivka in the Donetsk region.
Russia’s Allies
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has arrived in Beijing for a two-day state visit, aiming to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. The discussions will cover international cooperation and “hot topics,” including Russia’s actions in Ukraine. China’s support for Russia amid the conflict has raised concerns in the West, with the U.S. cautioning allies about China’s backing of Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin is also expected to visit China in May to meet with President Xi Jinping.
Russia has reportedly asked Kazakhstan to prepare to supply 100,000 tons of gasoline amid potential shortages due to increased Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. While one source claims an agreement has been reached, an advisor to Kazakhstan’s energy minister denied such a request. Ukrainian strikes have disrupted 10% of Russia’s refinery capacity, leading to a six-month gasoline export ban starting March 1. The United States cautioned Ukraine against targeting Russian refineries to avoid global oil price hikes. Despite the ban, Russia continues to export gasoline to the Eurasian economic union, including Kazakhstan.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center notes that around 400 members of the Wagner Group are currently in Belarus, and hints that some are moving to Africa for higher-paying assignments.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Kremlin is blaming Ukraine for recent incidents to portray it as a terrorist state and weaken international support. Ukraine is accused of drone strikes on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and involvement in an attack at Crocus City Hall. Russia’s foreign ministry alleges that Ukrainian special services have attacked Russia, claiming Western nations, especially the US and UK, enable “Ukrainian terrorism” by providing military aid. Although ZNPP officials reported Ukrainian drone strikes, the International Atomic Energy Agency has not assigned blame.
The Washington Post reported that Moscow aims to weaken U.S. support for Ukraine using troll farms and political strategists amid Ukraine’s urgent need for American assistance. U.S. aid has faced delays since fall 2023 due to border security disputes. While a $95 billion aid package passed the Senate in February, it awaits a House vote. The Russian disinformation campaign spans a decade and seeks to promote American isolationism while stirring fear over border security and exploiting economic and racial tensions. Tactics include fabricated news articles, social media posts, and comments. The campaign also criticizes President Zelensky and opposes military aid to Ukraine, prioritizing border security. This propaganda, obtained by the Washington Post, targets “white Americans” and is seen as crucial by Western officials.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com