Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the ongoing Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities are aimed at crippling the Ukrainian defense industry. Concurrently, Russia is enhancing its military offensive against Ukraine by domestically producing a new cruise missile, the Kh-69, and deploying additional troops from the Eastern Military District to compensate for losses. Amidst these military escalations, Russian occupation authorities are also intensifying efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian children in occupied areas, attempting to diminish their Ukrainian identity. Meanwhile, the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation claimed to have thwarted a terror attack by Central Asians on a Russian military site in Ukraine, labeling it as Ukrainian-supported terrorism, which may be an attempt to discredit legitimate Ukrainian military actions as acts of terrorism.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated threats of nuclear escalation aimed at the US, UK, and Finland, as stated by the Director of Non-proliferation and Arms Control, Vladimir Yermakov, in an interview. This type of rhetoric is commonly used by the Kremlin to deter Western support for Ukraine.
Russian social media bots on Vkontakte (VK) significantly increased the dissemination of content critical of Moldovan President Maia Sandu. This surge in anti-Sandu activity coincided with Gagauzia Governor Yevgenia Gutsul’s visit to Moscow, where she signed an agreement with a Russian state bank. The operation, linked to Sergei Kiriyenko of the Russian Presidential Administration and his son Vladimir, owner of Mail.ru group, aims to undermine Moldovan democracy, block EU accession efforts, and possibly set the stage for more aggressive actions against Moldova. This strategy is expected to escalate as part of ongoing Russian efforts to destabilize Moldova.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated on April 11 that Belarus does not currently see the need to establish a demilitarized “sanitary zone” between Belarus and Ukraine. He noted that the necessity of such a zone would depend on the actions of Western countries, particularly their military support to Ukraine, which he described as “escalations.” Lukashenko also claimed that Western states are considering deploying forces in Ukraine near the Belarusian border. This discussion aligns with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s previous suggestion to create a sanitary zone along the Ukrainian-Russian border to keep Russian territories out of range of artillery and Western long-range systems.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
U.S. officials have expressed concerns about the potential collapse of Ukraine’s army, describing the current situation as the country’s “most fragile moment” in over two years of war. This vulnerability is attributed to a severe ammunition shortage and delays in U.S. aid due to congressional impasses. Despite these challenges, there are no immediate signs of a Russian breakthrough, according to an anonymous U.S. official. Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly replenished its forces more quickly than expected, increasing its army size by 15%. In response, Ukraine is bolstering its defenses, with significant funds allocated for constructing fortifications, particularly along the Russian border.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Limited positional fighting persisted in the Kreminna area. A Russian military blogger reported that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian troops back by 1.5 kilometers near Krupna Balka, east of Terny, although this claim lacks independent visual confirmation. Further fighting occurred south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff stated that there were no Russian assaults in the Lyman direction or in the Kupyansk area.
Russian military bloggers reported slight advancements by Russian forces northeast of Bakhmut, and near areas west of Zolotarivka towards Verkhnokamyanske, as well as southeast of Siversk near Vesele and Vyimka. There was also continued positional fighting near Spirne and Rozdolivka, south of Siversk.
Positional fighting persisted near Chasiv Yar without confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian military bloggers claimed advancements on the outskirts of the Kanal district and towards Kalynivka from Bohdanivka, northeast of Chasiv Yar. They also reported that Russian forces are making progress on the southeastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar. Additionally, combat continued east of Chasiv Yar near Ivanivske and southeast near Klishchiivka, with Russian forces involved near Klishchiivka.
Russian forces made slight advances west of Avdiivka, as confirmed by geolocated footage showing small gains north of Berdychi and south of Umanske. Russian military bloggers also reported advances near Novokalynove, accompanied by heavy glide bomb strikes, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Additionally, positional fighting persisted in the areas northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka, west near Tonenke, Semenivka, and Yasnobrodivka, and southwest near Pervomaiske and Netaylove.
Russian forces made minor advances southwest of Donetsk City, with geolocated footage indicating small gains in southeastern Krasnohorivka. Russian military bloggers also reported advances in Novomykhailivka, though these are not visually confirmed. Ongoing positional fighting was reported west of Donetsk City near Heorhiivka and southwest near Pobieda, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Russian forces reportedly made slight advances at the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, including crossing the Mokryi Yaly River to reach the southern outskirts of Urozhaine, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Positional fighting also persisted near Staromayorske, south of Velyka Novosilka.
Ongoing positional engagements occurred in western Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically near Robotyne and Verbove, without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Ukrainian forces successfully targeted a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system with a HIMARS strike south of Vasylivka, west of Robotyne.
Ongoing positional engagements took place near Krynky in east Kherson Oblast, with no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War announced the return of 99 soldiers’ bodies who died during Russia’s invasion. The Geneva Conventions mandate dignified burials for war casualties, with over 2,100 soldiers repatriated in the past two years. The soldiers were retrieved from various frontlines, including Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv. Multiple government and military agencies collaborated in the retrieval efforts, with assistance from the International Committee of the Red Cross. Kyiv recently disclosed the total number of soldiers killed in the invasion, with President Volodymyr Zelensky expressing deep sorrow over the losses.
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 3 people and the injuries of 2 others:
- A Russian artillery attack in Kharkiv Oblast’s Monachynivka resulted in the death of a 64-year-old man and injuries to a 72-year-old man and a 76-year-old woman. The injured individuals declined hospitalization and received medical care at the scene.
- The death toll from a Russian missile strike in Odesa Oblast on April 10 has increased to six, as a 56-year-old man injured in the attack passed away in the hospital.
- One person injured in a Russian attack on Mykolaiv on April 11 has died in the hospital. This brings the death toll from the attack to five.
The aftermath of a Russian attack against Monachynivka
Ukraine News
Overnight on April 11 to 12 and during the day on April 12, Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile strikes from occupied Crimea and Donetsk Oblast against Ukraine. They deployed 17 Shahed-136/131 drones and a Kh-59 cruise missile. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted all 17 drones over regions including Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnitsky, as well as the cruise missile. Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command noted that the drone strikes aimed to test established flight paths and strain Ukrainian air defenses by varying the attack directions.
Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko warned of potential power outages in spring or summer due to continued Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. Recent attacks have severely damaged Ukraine’s energy capacity, including the destruction of the Trypillya plant, a key power source for multiple regions. Andrii Hota from Ukraine’s Centrenergo emphasized that while the plant can be rebuilt with international support, such efforts would be ineffective without enhanced air defense, specifically citing a need for more anti-aircraft missiles. The plant was crucial for powering several regions, including Kyiv. Despite the damage, Ukraine’s energy system remains operational. Halushchenko advises Ukrainians to prepare by purchasing generators and power banks, though efforts are ongoing to minimize the necessity for these measures.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced ongoing negotiations to acquire additional air defense systems, including two Patriot batteries and a SAMP/T missile battery, as the country faces increased Russian missile and drone attacks. The attacks have escalated this spring, causing significant casualties and damage. Ukraine, seeking to bolster its defenses against such threats, particularly needs U.S.-made Patriots capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated Ukraine requires 25 Patriot systems for full coverage, though the immediate goal is to secure seven. The decision to provide these systems rests primarily with the U.S. Kuleba highlighted that if allied countries agreed, the systems could be delivered within a week.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) conducted searches at the premises of Archpriest Mykola Danylevych, a senior member of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), on April 12. Danylevych, deputy head of the UOC-MP’s synodal department for external relations, is suspected of supporting the “Russian world” ideology and justifying Russian aggression. In 2017, he was part of a delegation lobbying against the granting of autocephaly to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) by Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew. The UOC-MP has not commented on the searches. In March, the SBU dismantled a pro-Russian disinformation group in Kyiv, which included a UOC-MP priest, accused of spreading pro-Kremlin propaganda.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukrainian soldiers and police officers serving at the front line will receive an additional monthly payment of Hr 70,000 ($1,785), as announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. This is in addition to their regular salary of Hr 20-25,000 ($510-637) and combat pay of Hr 100,000 ($2,550). The bonus, applicable every 30 days, rewards personnel directly involved in combat missions. This follows recent legislative updates by Ukraine’s parliament, which also adjusted provisions for disabled soldiers and introduced mandatory medical checks for conscription.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that developing Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) is crucial for its long-term security and reducing reliance on foreign military aid. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has prioritized increasing domestic production of military equipment for 2024. Additionally, the US State Department emphasized the importance of providing Western air defenses, particularly Patriot systems, to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities. President Volodymyr Zelensky has highlighted the critical need for these systems to protect against intensified Russian strikes. ISW notes that with adequate expansion of its defense industry, Ukraine may not require continuous large-scale security assistance from the West, but the immediate provision of air defense systems is essential for defending its energy infrastructure and developing defense industry.
Ukraine’s Allies
Norway will send 22 F-16 jets to Ukraine, with 12 fully combat-ready and 10 potentially needing significant overhauls. The package includes engines, simulators, spare parts, and other equipment. These F-16s, retired by the Norwegian Air Force in 2022 after 30 years of service, have been updated with modern electronics and sensors, making them technologically competitive. Despite being older, these jets are equipped with robust avionics that could make them effective in combat against Russian aircraft.
Greece is selling its aging fleet of F-16 jets, which could be potential assets for Ukraine as it seeks to gain air superiority. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias announced the sale of the Block 30 F-16s last month. Ukrainian pilots are nearing the end of their F-16 training in the US and Denmark, with others learning English and control systems in Britain and France. Despite its older design, the F-16AM/BM models destined for Ukraine have been updated with modern avionics and could be effective in both air-to-air combat and protecting against attacks on infrastructure.
After a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the Netherlands has allocated an additional one billion euros ($1.1 billion) in military aid and 400 million euros ($425 million) for reconstruction. This support is part of a 10-year bilateral security agreement signed on March 1. Zelensky expressed gratitude to the Dutch people for their exemplary support. The call also involved discussions on accelerating the delivery of military equipment and cooperation in global peace initiatives. Additionally, the Netherlands pledged 10 million euros ($10.8 million) to assist Ukraine in investigating Russian war crimes.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that France will join the global peace summit on Ukraine’s conflict hosted by Switzerland in June. The summit aims to discuss Ukraine’s peace formula and restore its sovereignty. Macron praised Switzerland’s initiative to unite nations for peace talks. Despite invitations, Russia has declined to participate. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that Russia has no place at the summit due to ongoing attacks on Ukraine.
Poland has established a new Council for Cooperation with Ukraine, aimed at enhancing bilateral relations and aiding in Ukraine’s reconstruction. Led by Pawel Kowal, the council will engage various sectors and work closely with Polish think tanks. The move comes amid strained relations due to prolonged border blockades led by Polish farmers. Despite challenges, Poland remains a key supporter of Ukraine, having provided significant military aid and hosting Ukrainian refugees. Discussions on resolving border disputes and enhancing trade continue between the two nations.
At a Security Council session on April 11, U.N. Assistant Secretary-General Miroslav Jenca labeled Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukraine as a “direct threat” to regional stability and a severe risk to Ukrainian civilians. The attacks have notably targeted residential areas and energy infrastructure, resulting in a 20% increase in civilian casualties recorded by a U.N. monitoring mission in March compared to February. Jenca highlighted a significant rise in child casualties and urged for lasting peace in line with international law. He also called for unrestricted access for U.N. monitoring missions in Ukraine’s occupied territories and noted hostilities spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders, including cross-border strikes into Russia and raids by anti-Kremlin militias from Ukraine into Russian border regions.
The European Council approved a law aimed at prosecuting violations or circumventions of EU sanctions, particularly those against Russia. The directive, adopted by the European Parliament last month, defines circumvention as a criminal offense punishable by up to five years in prison across member states. Offenses include aiding in bypassing travel bans, trading in sanctioned goods, and engaging in prohibited financial activities. Violators may face fines, and companies could be held liable. The directive will take effect 20 days after publication in the EU’s Official Journal, with member states given 12 months to implement it. The EU has imposed 13 sanctions packages in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, enforcement variations across member states have led to “forum shopping,” prompting calls for unified enforcement.
The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is investigating U.S. and foreign companies for supplying military chips to Russia. These chips fuel Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, aiding in the production of missiles and drones. Despite sanctions, Russia imported over $1 billion worth of advanced chips from U.S. and European companies in nine months. U.S. officials urge microelectronics manufacturers to cease chip sales to Russia. The probe also examines the role of U.S. financial institutions in facilitating trade with sanctioned entities. Efforts are underway to remove distributors selling restricted items to Russia from supply chains. Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention found that nearly three-quarters of foreign components in Russian weapons were made by U.S. producers. International partners are intensifying measures to prevent Russia from bypassing sanctions through third-party countries.
The U.S. and the U.K. will ban Russian exports of aluminum, copper, and nickel from major metal exchanges. Metals are a significant Russian export, but sanctions have reduced their value since the invasion of Ukraine. The move targets $40 billion in exports and aims to cut funding to Russia’s war efforts. The ban follows previous actions by the U.K. and U.S. against Russian metal imports. Existing Russian metal on exchanges is not affected to limit market disruptions. Other countries like Canada have also imposed bans on Russian metal products.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to restart the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), currently under Russian control, despite it being inactive since September 2022 due to safety issues. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been informed of plans to potentially reactivate one reactor by the year’s end, coinciding with the plant’s 40th anniversary. However, concerns are raised over Russia’s capability to safely manage the plant’s operations amid the conflict. Recent drone strikes near the ZNPP have escalated nuclear safety risks, prompting an emergency IAEA meeting. Experts and former workers express doubts about Russia’s technical staffing adequacy for the task. Ukraine insists that returning the plant to Ukrainian control and meeting IAEA safety demands are essential to avoid a nuclear crisis.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) reported preventing an alleged terrorist attack by a group of Central Asians on a Russian military facility in occupied Donetsk Oblast, claiming the operation was orchestrated by Ukraine. This assertion seems aimed at framing future Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets as terrorist acts.
Russian occupation officials are intensifying efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian children in occupied territories by expanding educational programs aimed at erasing Ukrainian identity. In Luhansk, an agreement was signed on April 9 to provide patriotic education and basic military training to students. Additionally, on April 10, it was reported that a high-ranking Russian official visited Berdyansk to oversee the construction of centers for military-patriotic youth education. Moreover, Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs representatives are actively recruiting orphans and children without parental guardians in occupied areas into specialized educational institutions affiliated with the ministry.
Russian occupation authorities have escalated the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia, a practice that intensified just before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On April 10, Russian Senator Konstantin Basyuk reported that children from occupied Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast, were sent to the “Ocean” children’s center in Primorsky Krai in March 2024. The first group of Ukrainian children arrived at the center in October 2023, following agreements made in the summer of 2023. Additionally, Russian media reported on April 8 that at least 400 Ukrainian children from orphanages and boarding schools in occupied Donetsk Oblast were deported to Russia in the days leading up to the invasion.
Russia News
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported 840 casualties among Russian forces in the past day.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged that the intense Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities, including the destruction of several power plants, are a response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure. These strikes are part of Russia’s wider “demilitarization” efforts against Ukraine, aimed at weakening its power generation capabilities and exploiting gaps in air defense to push Ukraine’s power grid toward collapse. This approach seeks to obstruct the development of Ukraine’s defense industry, impeding its path to self-sufficiency and lessening its dependence on Western support. Despite claims of these actions being retaliatory, there have been no reported Ukrainian assaults on Russian soil. Ukrainian forces have indeed targeted Russian oil refineries, causing a temporary downturn in Russia’s refining output. The United States has advised caution to Ukraine regarding such offensives, due to concerns over potential rises in global oil prices, clearly stating that it does not endorse Ukraine striking targets outside its borders. President Zelensky upholds that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil and weapons facilities are justified military strategies and within its rights for self-defense.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is deploying about 2,400 military personnel from the Eastern Military District to Ukraine due to significant personnel losses, integrating 2,000 servicemen from the Pacific Fleet’s forces in Primorsky Krai and Kamchatka Krai, along with 400 troops from the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army from Khabarovsk Krai. Originally scheduled for Syria, these redeployments are now aimed at bolstering understaffed naval infantry brigades near Novomykhailivka and Velyka Novosilka and forming a new motorized rifle brigade in Voronezh, reflecting a strategic shift by the Russian military after over 451,730 troops were reported killed or injured since the conflict began on February 24, 2022. Although independent reports suggest higher fatality numbers, these movements are to fill vacancies in undermanned units and establish new brigades, indicating a redirection of some forces from the Russian Far East.
To replenish its ranks, Russia is recruiting female prisoners to fight in Ukraine, with promises of salary and potential release after service. Ukraine’s military intelligence reports that women, some serving long sentences, are lured by propaganda to join combat and support units. However, many do not return home alive or come back with serious injuries. The practice, dating back to Wagner PMC’s Yevgeny Prigozhin, has evolved, canceling the offer of release after a 6-month service. Now, recruits, male and female, must sign long-term contracts extending until the end of the military operation, with fewer male prisoners willing to serve due to this change.
Russian forces have introduced a new air-to-surface subsonic cruise missile, the Kh-69, which is an upgraded version of the Kh-59 missile. This missile was used notably on April 11 to destroy the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine. The Kh-69, capable of striking from up to 400 kilometers away, has been launched from tactical aircraft like the Su-34 and Su-35, expanding its deployment flexibility. Despite ongoing production, the availability of essential components limits the scale of manufacturing these missiles. Ukrainian Air Force has acknowledged the need to develop effective countermeasures, suggesting that Patriot systems could likely intercept these missiles.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported a successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from a mobile launcher at the Kapustin Yar test site in Astrakhan Oblast. The launch was part of testing new missile systems and ensuring the reliability of existing missiles.
Russia’s Allies
During a four-hour meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 11, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced that Belarus has started domestic production of microchips and other electronic components, likely aiming to reduce dependence on Western technology subject to international sanctions. They also discussed cooperation and Lukashenko’s support for Russia’s stance on Ukraine negotiations. Additionally, they planned to mark Cosmonautics Day and discuss space cooperation. Lukashenko, in power since 1994, is seen as closely aligned with Putin, drawing European criticism.
China is allegedly supporting Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine by providing machine tools, weapons tech, and satellite imagery, based on anonymous U.S. officials. Despite claiming neutrality, China’s aid reportedly aids Russia’s military expansion. Chinese supplies are said to facilitate Russia’s missile and drone production, with 90% of its microelectronics imports in 2023 coming from China. Chinese businesses like iRay Technology allegedly supply military optics. China denies providing weapons and maintains neutrality, dismissing accusations as Western pressure.
Chinese banks have reportedly halted payments from Russian companies for electronic components since late March. This move adds pressure amid Western sanctions due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The blockade affects purchases for servers, storage systems, and laptops, critical for Russia’s defense industry. The issue arises amidst warnings from the U.S. about consequences for aiding Russia’s war.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Kremlin is once again using information tactics to feign interest in peace negotiations with Ukraine, aiming to secure Western concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty. President Vladimir Putin claimed in a meeting on April 11 that Russia remains open to a peaceful resolution, blaming the West for derailing past negotiations, particularly during talks in Istanbul in April 2022. He criticized an upcoming Global Peace Summit and suggested Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko could lead new peace efforts, shifting blame for stalled talks to the West. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov echoed these sentiments, suggesting the West obstructs negotiations. This strategy appears aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine as debates continue over US security assistance.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com