Summary of the day: US President Joe Biden confirmed the shipment of military aid to Ukraine, including the provision of long-range ATACMS missiles which have been employed by Ukrainian forces to target Russian positions. These advanced capabilities are aimed at disrupting Russian logistics and airfield operations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops leveraged drone strikes against Russian energy and industrial targets in Smolensk and Lipetsk, demonstrating effective use of the provided equipment. In Russia, the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on bribery charges—amid suspicions of treason—sparked internal discourse and led to speculations of a potential reshuffle within the Russian military hierarchy. As the Kremlin issued threats to Armenia to reengage with the CSTO, Russian forces have made slight advancements in the regions of Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Kremlin has warned Armenia of consequences if it doesn’t re-engage with the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and align with pro-Kremlin stances. This comes after Armenia’s Security Council Secretary opted out of a security meeting in Russia, suggesting Armenia’s intent to distance itself from Russian influence. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Lavrov, are framing Armenia’s closer ties with the West as an antagonistic move against Russia. Additionally, CSTO’s Secretary General hinted at a potential confrontation if Armenia moves away from the CSTO. These statements coincided with Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, a significant date in Armenian history.
Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi described Moldova as a target of Russian hybrid warfare, including election meddling, in a Bloomberg interview. He detailed tactics such as financial smuggling, creating deep fake videos, and cyberattacks, including a significant disruption of Moldovan postal services in February 2024. Additionally, Moldovan authorities recently seized over one million dollars linked to Kremlin-backed opposition politicians. Popșoi also highlighted ongoing rhetorical attacks from Russia, raising concerns about potential military threats as Russia aims to destabilize Moldova and hinder its EU integration efforts.
Moldovan authorities have charged Yevgenia Gutsul, governor of the pro-Russian Gagauzia region, with accepting illicit funds for the Shor Party and paying protesters, suggesting ties to organized crime. Denying the allegations, Gutsul and the Victory electoral bloc, also pro-Russian, warn of potential destabilization in response to these charges. This development raises concerns about Russia using the situation to justify interference under the guise of protecting its interests abroad.
Valentina Matviyenko, chairperson of Russia’s Federation Council, warned of a “very tough” response if Europe proceeds with plans to use an additional $300 million in frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. Matviyenko, speaking to RIA Novosti, did not detail the potential countermeasures but claimed Europe would suffer greater losses than Russia. This statement did not address a similar U.S. plan to extend sanctions on Russia and potentially use seized assets for Ukraine’s defense.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in response to Polish President Andrzej Duda’s comments on the potential spread of nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe, stated that NATO has no intentions of deploying nuclear arms in additional member countries. This clarification was made during a press conference in Poland, where Stoltenberg emphasized the status of U.S.-made nuclear weapons stationed in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. Duda’s original remarks followed Russia’s announcement of plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
France is urging the EU to implement new sanctions against Russian disinformation and election meddling worldwide, according to a draft proposal. The sanctions would target those undermining elections, the rule of law, and security through information manipulation. This initiative, supported by Baltic states, the Netherlands, and Poland, follows warnings from Belgium and Czechia about Russian interference in the upcoming EU parliamentary election. EU officials are increasingly concerned about Russian disinformation ahead of the election, noting a significant rise in such activities over the past five years. Meanwhile, Microsoft reported that a Russian disinformation campaign targeting the next U.S. presidential election has commenced.
A North Korean economic delegation is en route to Iran for official talks, marking the first such meeting in nearly five years. Western officials express worry over the strengthening alliance among Iran, North Korea, and China, key military suppliers to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Concerns include arms trade and potential nuclear collaboration, with suspicions of oil-for-weapons deals between Russia and North Korea. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield highlights concerns about weapon exchanges and technology sharing among the trio.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Volodymyr Artyukh, head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces are intensifying air strikes and deploying sabotage groups for cross-border raids in Sumy Oblast.
The U.S. military’s Project Maven, an AI initiative, has seen mixed results in Ukraine’s conflict, facing challenges in integrating modern data with traditional warfare. Developed since 2017, it aims to replace human decision-making with algorithms. Despite progress, AI’s target detection capability lags behind soldiers’ accuracy. Ukraine utilizes a simplified version of Maven for drone attacks on Russian industrial sites, disrupting 12-14% of Russia’s refining capacity. Basic AI aids drones in precision targeting and resilience against jamming. Though specifics are undisclosed, Maven has assisted Ukrainian forces and highlighted AI’s limitations, prompting adjustments in military satellite systems.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Ongoing positional battles were reported near Svatove and Kreminna, with no significant shifts in the frontline. Fighting took place in several surrounding areas, including northwest and southwest of Svatove and around Kreminna, particularly near the Serebryanske forest.
Russian forces attacked in the Siversk area northeast of Bakhmut, but the frontline remained unchanged. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled these attacks near Verkhnokamyanske and southeast of Siversk around Spirne and Vyimka.
Russian military efforts to advance toward Chasiv Yar, east of Bakhmut, continued without any confirmed changes to the frontline. The attacks were concentrated in several areas around Chasiv Yar, including the southeastern and northeastern sectors. Despite these efforts, a Ukrainian battalion commander reported that recent Russian assaults in the area have been unsuccessful, with Russian forces regrouping to compensate for losses. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted that Russian forces are using glide bombs to target buildings providing cover to Ukrainian troops, typically advancing during times of limited drone visibility at dawn and dusk. Various Russian military units, including airborne and motorized rifle regiments, are involved in the operations around Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces made a confirmed advance west of Avdiivka, with activities reported in the central and northern parts of Semenivka. Russian military bloggers claim further gains in nearby areas, including Novobakhmutivka and Ocheretyne, though these claims lack visual confirmation. The Russian military has also intensified attacks across several locations around Avdiivka, deploying additional reserves to bolster their offensive. Ukrainian and other sources report Russian troop movements and equipment reallocations involving multiple motorized rifle brigades and tank regiments in the region, indicating a strategic escalation and reorganization of forces in preparation for sustained combat operations.
Reports indicated that Russian forces are engaging in risky operations to achieve tactical advances northwest of Avdiivka, exploiting a Ukrainian brigade rotation to make a narrow penetration towards Ocheretyne. Although this specific report remains unconfirmed, Russian military bloggers attribute recent gains in the Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar areas to bold frontal attacks. These movements are time-sensitive, as Russian forces race to expand their foothold before the arrival of US and Western security assistance at the frontline.
Russian forces made a confirmed tactical advance southwest of Donetsk City, with geolocated footage showing movement within western Novomykhailivka. There are unverified claims of further advances east and southeast of Heorhiivka, west of Donetsk City. Continued attacks are reported west and southwest of the city, particularly near Krasnohorivka and Vodyane. Russian forces are also noted to be using “turtle” armored vehicles in the area to protect against drone strikes.
Fighting persisted in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area without confirmed changes to the frontline. Clashes were reported south of Velyka Novosilka, specifically near Staromayorske and Urozhaine. A Russian military blogger noted an increase in drone strikes near Pavlivka, suggesting preparations for upcoming assault operations towards Vuhledar, where elements of Russian forces are currently positioned.
Russian forces made a slight advance in Robotyne, located in western Zaporizhia Oblast, amidst ongoing positional clashes. Recent geolocated footage from April 22 confirms this minor progression in the central part of Robotyne. The area continues to see active fighting, particularly in and northwest of Verbove, east of Robotyne. Despite a reported decrease in ground assaults recently, the Orikhiv direction remains a hotspot.
Ukrainian forces achieved a slight advance in Krynky, located on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. This development amid ongoing positional battles in the area was confirmed by geolocated footage showing Ukrainian troops making progress in northern Krynky.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 23
- In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces struck over a dozen homes and apartment buildings, resulting in one death and five injuries.
- Russian missile strikes in Kharkiv Oblast have injured at least six people.
- A 43-year-old woman was injured in a Russian missile attack on Odesa Oblast. Her condition was reported as moderate.
- Seven people were injured in recent Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
- Russian forces launched nearly 250 attacks in Sumy Oblast, injuring at least four people
Ukraine News
Russian forces carried out limited missile strikes across Ukraine. In Odesa, missiles targeted a residential area and a facility storing decommissioned vehicles, with additional claims of strikes on the Horbaty Bridge and military warehouses. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted a Kh-59 missile and a Kh-69 missile over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Meanwhile, in Kharkiv, Russian missiles hit civil infrastructure and residential buildings, as well as administration buildings in Zolochiv.
President Zelensky expressed determination to compensate for the six-month delay in U.S. assistance to Ukraine during his April 24 address. Following months of political debate, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a $60.84 billion aid package for Ukraine on April 20, which President Biden signed into law on the same day. Zelensky thanked Biden, Congress, and American supporters. He emphasized the need to leverage Russia’s actions against them and accelerate the delivery of military aid to Ukraine. The Pentagon confirmed readiness to send $1 billion worth of weapons from U.S. stockpiles to Kyiv.
Metropolitan Arseniy of the Moscow Patriarchate-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church is suspected of disclosing Ukrainian military checkpoint information, according to the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). The SBU alleges that during a liturgy at Svyatohirsk Lavra in Donetsk Oblast, Arseniy revealed checkpoint coordinates, potentially aiding Russian forces. Arseniy has been accused of spreading pro-Kremlin narratives and could face eight years in prison if convicted. The investigation is ongoing, and preventive measures are being considered. Previously, the SBU conducted searches at the premises of Archpriest Mykola Danylevych, another senior member of the same church, for alleged support of pro-Russian ideology and justification of Russian aggression.
Former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi will become Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K. in a few week. Some logistical matters need resolution before he assumes the role. Zaluzhnyi was replaced as commander-in-chief on Feb. 8 by Oleksandr Syrskyi. His dismissal generated public debate, given his popularity for leading military resistance against Russia.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine has barred men aged 18 to 60 from sending passports abroad, effective immediately. This move aligns with the suspension of new consular support applications for military-age men overseas due to a recent mobilization law. Passports can now only be obtained at migration offices within Ukraine. Exceptions include individuals with disabilities and those accompanying relatives needing medical treatment abroad. The decree aims to bolster Ukraine’s armed forces amid a manpower shortage. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba emphasized restoring fairness towards conscription-age men.
Ukraine’s parliament passed a bill to increase the State Border Guard personnel by 15,000, totaling 75,000 once signed by President Zelensky. This boost, focused on military roles, is deemed crucial amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. The measure garnered unanimous support from lawmakers and will remain effective for up to a year after martial law ends.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Joe Biden has signed a $95 billion aid package, allocating $60 billion to Ukraine, with $1 billion designated for military assistance. This includes air defense missiles, artillery shells, and armored vehicles, expected to arrive in Ukraine in the coming weeks, potentially sooner than Russia expects. As part of this aid, the Pentagon plans to dispatch weaponry from U.S. stockpiles to Kyiv. The package, geared to bolster Ukraine’s defense, encompasses missiles, anti-aircraft systems, infantry fighting vehicles, and ammunition. Biden’s directive accelerates the delivery process, with some aid already positioned in Germany and Poland for swifter deployment, though other items may necessitate longer procurement or manufacturing timelines. Meanwhile, heightened attacks by Russian troops in Donetsk indicate a push for territorial gains before the impact of the new U.S. assistance is felt on the ground.
The U.S. has provided Ukraine with ATACMS long-range missiles, which have already been used to target Russian military bases and defense systems in occupied regions, including Crimea. Strikes have also been reported in Berdyansk, although not officially confirmed by Ukraine. These advanced missiles enable Ukraine to hit Russian assets more effectively and could disrupt Russian logistics, although it’s uncertain if Russia has adjusted its defenses since the missiles were first used in October 2023. The U.S. quietly supplied Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) this spring, as confirmed by State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel. President Biden’s directive initiated the secret delivery in February, with missiles arriving in April. The move was part of a $300 million military aid package announced on March 12. Initially hesitant due to security concerns and potential impact on military readiness, the U.S. ultimately decided to provide the missiles after Russia’s actions in Ukraine escalated, including missile strikes on Ukrainian territory. The exact number of ATACMS delivered remains undisclosed. Ukraine deployed some missiles against a Russian airfield in Crimea on April 17, destroying several Russian assets. The recent aid bill signed by President Biden includes provisions for delivering long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. Additionally, the Pentagon is ready to send $1 billion in defense aid to Kyiv, although ATACMS are not included in the list of arms to be provided. Ukraine finalized agreements on ATACMS after a call between President Zelensky and President Biden on April 22.
Zelensky stated Russia aims to disrupt the global peace summit in Switzerland in June. The summit will discuss Ukraine’s peace plan and steps to restore sovereignty. Ukraine will share Russia’s plans with allies to counter them. The peace plan includes withdrawing Russian troops and punishing war crimes. While 80-100 countries are invited, Russia’s participation is ruled out for now.
The U.K. and Latvia-led drone coalition raised over 500 million euros for Ukraine’s drone acquisition. Seven nations, including Germany and Canada, joined, with Denmark and the Netherlands contributing the most at 400 million euros. Canada allocated 70 million euros, Lithuania 3 million euros, and Latvia nearly 10 million euros. Negotiations with other coalition members are ongoing. Germany, the Netherlands, and Canada also pledged new drone batches for Ukraine, while Lithuania allocated funds for drone production.
Andriy Yermak, Head of the Presidential Office, confirmed that more Patriot air defense systems are assuredly en route to Ukraine amid increased Russian attacks. He stated Ukraine’s urgent need for these systems to protect its cities and citizens. Germany and Greece are among the countries pledging additional Patriots, with efforts to secure more ongoing, including joint production talks with the U.S. Kyiv emphasizes the critical importance of bolstering its air defense capabilities to counter Russian aggression.
The EU disbursed a second round of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine, totaling 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion), as part of a larger aid package. This follows the initial tranche of 4.5 billion euros ($4.8 billion) granted in March. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine’s services amid ongoing conflict. However, Hungary has voiced opposition, threatening to block the aid over alleged grievances against Ukraine, despite the EU’s collective agreement on the assistance.
Ukraine and Portugal have initiated talks on a bilateral security agreement, part of efforts by over 30 countries in the Group of Seven (G7) to support Ukraine. Several G7 members, including the U.K., Germany, and France, have already signed similar agreements with Ukraine. Discussions between Portuguese and Ukrainian officials also touched on the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland and the implementation of Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan. Further negotiations between Kyiv and Lisbon are scheduled. The G7 members aim to provide long-term security commitments to Ukraine, including sanctions, financial aid, and post-war reconstruction support.
Hugo Boss has sold its Russian subsidiary to Stockmann, a retail group, amidst pressures faced by Western companies operating in Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. The sale follows Hugo Boss’ suspension of retail operations in Russia in 2022. The deal, approved by Russia’s Deputy Trade Minister, ensures job retention. Hugo Boss stated it hadn’t violated Western sanctions and had continued parts of its wholesale business in Russia.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russia’s Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova has been accused of misrepresenting negotiations regarding the return of Ukrainian children deported by Russia, framing it as the first direct talk when in fact, Qatar acted as a mediator. Lvova-Belova claimed that 29 children would be returned to Ukraine, contradicting reports of thousands being deported. Ukraine’s Human Rights Commissioner refuted the direct negotiation claims, stating that discussions are mediated by Qatar, with more talks scheduled. This issue ties into broader concerns about Russia’s attempts to assimilate Ukrainian children and culture, which some allege breaches international genocide conventions.
Russia News
Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil depots in Smolensk and a plant in Lipetsk overnight, causing fires and halting operations. The attacks destroyed 26,000 cubic meters of fuel in Smolensk’s Yartsevo and Razdorovo, prompting evacuations. Russian officials reported intercepting drones in other regions. Governor Anokhin confirmed the fires, attributing them to enemy attacks, with no casualties reported. These strikes aim to disrupt Russian military logistics. The U.S. criticized Ukraine’s actions, fearing global energy market disruption, but Ukraine defended its right to retaliate against Russian oil facilities.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to intensify strikes on Ukrainian depots storing Western weapons, aiming to counter the perceived threats from the United States and its allies. Despite the imminent arrival of new U.S. military aid for Ukraine, which includes long-range ATACMS missiles, ammunition, and air defense interceptors, Russia asserts dominance along the front. Shoigu’s claims of capturing strategic Ukrainian villages are contested by Ukrainian forces, who maintain partial control over key locations. This escalatory rhetoric from Russia coincides with ongoing talks between Ukraine and the U.S. on a security agreement, signaling continued Western support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion. Russia’s defense ministry also claims to have seized a cache of Western-made weapons during recent operations.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested on bribery charges, with the incident sparking discussions of potential treason and leading to speculation about shifts in the Russian military hierarchy and internal power struggles. His arrest has drawn significant attention, prompting outspoken criticism from Russian military bloggers towards the Ministry of Defense and opening a broad dialogue among military commentators. Ivanov, who has held his position since 2016, is now in pre-trial detention, with confirmed allegations of accepting a bribe in connection with Defense Ministry contracts, which could lead to a sentence of up to 15 years. His responsibilities included overseeing major construction projects, such as the Vostochny Cosmodrome and the restoration of Mariupol post-invasion. This development was immediately reported to higher officials, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and President Vladimir Putin.
A Russian man was sentenced to 10 years in jail for sabotage and treason after allegedly setting fire to a railway relay cabinet in Transbaikal, far eastern Russia. Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, such acts are now treated as serious offenses, with some accused of working for Ukraine. The man confessed, citing ideological reasons, but the veracity of the charges remains unverified. Ukraine’s military intelligence previously claimed responsibility for similar railway disruptions in Russia, aiming to disrupt military logistics.
A Moscow court has upheld the detention of American journalist Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter, denying his appeal for release as he awaits trial on espionage charges. Detained since March 2023, Gershkovich faces accusations from Russian authorities, which the Biden administration and his employers vehemently deny, emphasizing his journalistic activities and dismissing the charges as baseless. There is speculation that Gershkovich is being used as a political lever by Russia amid its conflict with Ukraine and tensions with the U.S. Russian prosecutors have not presented evidence to support the spying allegations.
Russian Orthodox priest Dmitriy Safranov was suspended for three years after overseeing the funeral of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, as per a document on the Moscow City Diocese website on April 23. Navalny died on Feb. 16, prompting global blame on Putin. Safranov’s suspension is believed to be related to his involvement in Navalny’s funeral and signing a petition for the release of Navalny’s body to his family.
Reuters reported that Russia’s oil and gas revenues for April will nearly double compared to the same month last year, slightly dipping from March 2024. The revenue is estimated at 1.292 trillion rubles ($14 billion), down from 1.308 trillion rubles ($14.1 billion) in March. Despite Western sanctions targeting Moscow’s energy sectors, revenue remains high, partly due to Russia’s use of uninsured tankers to evade restrictions. Western leaders seek to limit Kremlin revenue to curb its ability to fund the ongoing war in Ukraine. The EU is drafting its 14th sanctions package, aiming to prevent Russia from circumventing oil sanctions, particularly through maritime trade.
Despite sanctions on the Russian titanium manufacturer VSMPO-Avisma, the Canadian government has allowed Airbus to use Russian titanium in its Canadian operations. Airbus Canada has received authorization to ensure compliance with current sanctions, though details on the permits’ specifics or their duration are undisclosed. After announcing plans to phase out Russian titanium in December 2022, Airbus has been sourcing more from the U.S. and Japan, facing a lengthy certification process for new suppliers due to aerospace standards. Canada’s sanctions on VSMPO-Avisma were initiated in February 2024. European Union planned sanctions faced opposition from companies including Airbus in the summer of 2022. There are increasing concerns about the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia. Furthermore, Le Parisien reported that PGA, a subsidiary of Astronics, has been supplying avionics for Russian aircraft used by senior officials. This business continued and even grew despite sanctions, generating significant revenue by equipping several aircraft with systems that facilitate secure communication for Russian dignitaries.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Alexander Khinshtein, head of the Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy, announced plans to introduce a draft law that would prevent the extradition of foreigners who participated in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if they face legal actions in their home countries. This move comes after a Serbian volunteer, facing mercenary charges in Serbia, revealed that Russia has repeatedly denied his citizenship requests because his contract was with the Donetsk People’s Republic rather than the Russian Ministry of Defense. Similar legal actions have occurred in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, where citizens have been sentenced for mercenary activities after fighting for the Donetsk People’s Republic and Wagner Group in Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk Oblast, coinciding with the planned developments of the Angara rocket by the Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center. This visit follows the first test launch of the Angara-A5 at the Vostochnyy Cosmodrome on April 11. Shoigu announced that Russia intends to conduct three additional Angara rocket test launches in 2024. Additionally, he was briefed by Colonel General Alexander Golovko, Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, on a new satellite preparation complex at the cosmodrome.
Russian forces showcased adaptations to their military equipment aimed at protecting against Ukrainian drone strikes. Modifications include extensive metal mesh and fencing welded onto vehicles like the MT-LB infantry fighting vehicle and the Z-STS Akhmat armored vehicle. Additionally, footage revealed a Russian motorcycle and a T-80 tank outfitted with makeshift armor on various parts to enhance their defenses against drone attacks along the front.
Russia’s Allies
During the 7th All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko echoed familiar Russian narratives criticizing Western influence. He disparaged former Soviet states, especially the Baltics and Ukraine, for their western alignment and blamed the West for global conflicts and color revolutions. Lukashenko also suggested that while international bodies like the UN, EU, and G20 are in decline, Russia-led organizations have the potential to thrive. He asserted that Western attempts to sway Belarus during the 2020 presidential elections were unsuccessful.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarus is thriving across multiple sectors such as education, healthcare, and industry, attributing this success to the country’s Union State agreement with Russia and partnerships with China. He highlighted Chinese collaboration as key in boosting Belarusian automotive production. Lukashenko praised the Union State model as an exemplar for international cooperation.
Bloomberg reported on April 23 that Russia plans to export natural gas to China at prices up to 28% lower than those for European clients until at least 2027, according to the Russian Economy Ministry. Gazprom’s gas production fell by 25% in 2023 due to various factors, including political decisions in some countries. Russia sees China as a growth market amid expected declining demand from Europe. Gas exports to China are forecasted at $257 per 1,000 cubic meters compared to $320.30 for Western markets. Gazprom aims to increase gas delivery to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, planning a maximum volume of 38 billion cubic meters by 2025. The launch of the Power of Siberia 2 link could further boost exports to 98 billion cubic meters per year. However, this would only be about half of what Russia used to send to Europe. Despite Western sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industries, April revenues are expected to double compared to last year.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
North Korean and Russian officials sought to downplay the potential impact of US military assistance to Ukraine. The North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeled the US aid as merely a “psychotropic substance” meant to ease Ukrainian fears temporarily. Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov and Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov stated that the new US aid would not change the battlefield dynamics in Ukraine’s favor. Additionally, Kremlin-controlled TASS news agency misrepresented Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s comments, suggesting he said US weapons were inferior to Russian ones. However, Kuleba clarified in an interview that defeating Russia would require a collective effort from Ukraine and its allies. This narrative likely aims to mitigate concerns within Russia about the effectiveness of US support to Ukraine, with the real impact of this aid to become evident as it reaches the Ukrainian frontlines.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com