Summary of the day: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced intentions to amplify offensive operations in the Donbas region, specifically targeting Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. Meanwhile, the UK has pledged a significant military aid package to Ukraine, the largest to date, amounting to 500 million pounds. On the ground, Ukrainian forces have made advances near Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces have advanced near Donetsk City. These developments occur against the backdrop of increased security cooperation between Russia and Iran, as evidenced by high-level meetings in St. Petersburg and the Chechen Republic’s moves to align with Iran.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Iranian security official Ali Akbar Ahmadian visited St. Petersburg to partake in a global security summit. While there, he planned to discuss defense strategies with counterparts from various countries, including Russia, and emphasized regional security issues such as the presence of foreign forces in Iraq. These meetings are part of ongoing efforts to strengthen Iran’s defense ties with allies and assert its stance against Western influence.
Moldovan authorities seized over one million dollars from Kremlin-linked opposition politicians at Chisinau airport, suspected of intending to use the funds to bribe voters and protesters. This followed a tip-off about money smuggling linked to a pro-Russian electoral bloc’s formation after a meeting in Moscow. Searches at the airport and some residences led to the discovery of various currencies totaling around $1.1 million. The funds were reportedly meant to support political activities in Moldova, with couriers used to evade customs declarations. This incident ties into broader concerns about efforts to undermine Moldova’s democratic processes and its potential EU integration.
Russian oil tankers from the “shadow fleet” are suspected of conducting espionage in the Baltic Sea, according to Swedish Navy chief Ewa Skoog Haslum. These tankers, used to bypass sanctions on Russian oil trade, possess unusual communication equipment raising concerns of espionage. There’s also worry over their environmental impact. Denmark may inspect these tankers, potentially disrupting their transit. Haslum warns of security and environmental risks posed by the shadow fleet.
Suspected Russian jamming of GPS systems has reportedly affected thousands of flights to and from Europe, particularly over the Baltic Sea and Eastern Europe. Recent incidents include the jamming of a Royal Air Force aircraft transporting UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps near Russia’s Kaliningrad region. While GPS jamming poses a concern, aviation authorities emphasize existing safety protocols to protect navigation systems and downplay direct impacts on aircraft navigation.
Latvia’s Education Ministry announced that Russian will no longer be taught as a foreign language in schools from 2026. Instead, students will learn a language from the EU or EEA. This decision follows feedback from parents who prefer other languages after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Students already learning Russian can continue until completing basic education. The move reflects Latvia’s alignment with EU values. Latvia has been a strong supporter of Ukraine and has implemented various measures in response to Russia’s invasion, including tightening residency rules for Russians.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has confirmed continued attacks near key locations in Ukraine and plans to escalate operations. This move aims to hinder Ukrainian military supply routes and comes amid broader Russian efforts to prepare for increased Western aid to Ukraine. Additionally, Russia has been targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure to weaken the country’s military capabilities and morale. Russian forces have made varied progress, with significant advances in some areas and minor ones in others. There’s also a shift to focus on striking Ukrainian logistics, possibly indicating future efforts to disrupt Ukraine’s military supplies and reinforcements.
Russian forces have recently intensified attacks on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, using missiles and drones. Despite this, Ukrainian National Guard commander Oleksandr Pivnenko believes that a full occupation of Kharkiv by Russian forces would take years due to the city’s strong defense and proximity to the Russian border. While Western officials suggest Russia may lack the immediate capability for a major offensive, Pivnenko warns of ongoing attempts to destroy critical infrastructure. Recent attacks have targeted energy and broadcasting facilities, raising concerns of a coordinated effort to destabilize the city.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued their attacks near Svatove and Kreminna without making any confirmed progress. Ukrainian troops successfully repelled multiple Russian assaults across several areas including northwest and southwest of Svatove, and west, southwest, and south of Kreminna. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed a failed Ukrainian counterattack near Kreminna, while Russian forces were reported to be operating near Bilohorivka.
Russian forces attacked northwest of Bakhmut but did not alter the frontline. Ukrainian forces successfully defended against attacks near Siversk, particularly in the areas of Zolotarivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, and Vyimka. Russian forces were active near Vyimka-Rozdolivka, south of Siversk.
Ukrainian forces recaptured positions east of Chasiv Yar, despite ongoing Russian offensives in the area. Recent footage suggests a slight Ukrainian advance near Ivanivske, east of Chasiv Yar. Meanwhile, Russian claims of capturing positions near Klishchiivka have not been visually confirmed. Russian military bloggers report attacks on Chasiv Yar’s eastern outskirts by their forces. The Ukrainian military reports that the fronts near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka are currently the most intense battle zones in eastern Ukraine.
Conflicting reports continue about Russian advances northwest of Avdiivka, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claim control over parts of Ocheretyne, while Ukrainian forces insist they still hold the majority of the area, including strategic positions.
Fighting persists in surrounding regions, including Novobakhmutivka, where both sides report varying degrees of control and advancement. Ukrainian officials allege Russian use of all available weaponry, including chemical agents, to push forward in Ocheretyne. The situation remains dynamic, with ongoing skirmishes reported across several adjacent locations. Ukrainian forces report Russian deployment of chemical weapons in Ocheretyne, Donetsk Oblast, according to spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn. While specifics were not provided, tear gas grenades and other chemicals have been increasingly used since 2024. Russian troops aim to capture nearby Chasiv Yar, seen as strategic for further advances. President Zelensky predicts a Russian push for Chasiv Yar by May 9, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day. Ukrainian forces are resisting Russian paratroopers in the area as ammunition and supplies dwindle.
Russian forces have made slight advancements in the areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, as shown in recent geolocated footage. Notably, they have pushed forward in areas south of Krasnohorivka and into western Novomykhailivka, where Russian forces were seen planting a flag. Despite these advances, intense fighting continues with Ukrainian forces reporting heavy Russian military activity aimed at breaching their lines near Novomykhailivka. Russian bloggers also claim progress in Heorhiivka, though these reports remain unconfirmed.
Clashes continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area without any significant shifts in the front lines. Reports indicated minor advances by Russian forces near Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka, with movements up to 200 meters. The area around Urozhaine and Staromayorske remains active with ongoing conflicts. Ukrainian military observers noted unsuccessful assaults by Russian brigades southwest of Staromayorske and south of Urozhaine, highlighting increased Russian military movements suggesting a possible intensification of operations in the region.
Skirmishes persisted near Robotyne and Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Claims by local occupation authorities that Russian forces advanced by up to a kilometer near Robotyne lack visual confirmation.
Ongoing military engagements were reported in the eastern regions of Kherson Oblast, notably near Krynky. Russian military bloggers have indicated an increase in offensive activities in Krynky, though specifics on the operations were not detailed.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 19
- Russian forces launched 242 attacks on Sumy Oblast, injuring four people across multiple communities including Mykolaiv and Hlukhiv. Shalyhyne village faced the brunt of the assaults, with 38 explosions recorded. The attacks involved mortar, artillery, rockets, and drones, with explosives dropped in four areas.
- Russian missile strikes hit Kharkiv, damaging four residential buildings and injuring two people. The attack, using S-300 missiles, struck a residential area causing shrapnel wounds to the injured. A gas pipeline was damaged, leaving residents without gas. Emergency crews are conducting search and rescue operations. In Kharkiv Oblast, missiles struck an administrative building in Zolochiv.
- Russian forces bombed Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, injuring five people. The victims were in a car during the attack, which caused severe damage to houses, a car, and infrastructure.
- Russian forces fired missiles at the Dnipro district, injuring eight people. Six men and an elderly woman were among the wounded, with six hospitalized. The extent of the damage is still being assessed.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine. Two Iskander-M ballistic missiles were fired from Belgorod Oblast and 16 Shahed-136/131 drones from Crimea and Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 15 of these drones over regions including Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kyiv, and Cherkasy. Additionally, missile attacks targeted Dnipro City and a drone struck Odesa City. Tactics varied, with drones launched at different times and directions, possibly for reconnaissance purposes.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently met with a bipartisan group of US lawmakers in Kyiv, affirming strong US support for Ukraine. This meeting followed a crucial vote by the US House of Representatives to provide over $60 billion in aid to Ukraine. Zelensky expressed gratitude for the aid and emphasized Ukraine’s need for air defense. The aid bill is expected to pass in the Senate shortly, with President Joe Biden ready to sign it immediately, promising swift provision of new security assistance to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs.
Ukraine’s parliament overwhelmingly passed a bill aligning the country’s education policy with EU standards. The law aims to enhance flexibility for university students, allowing them to change majors, complete a bachelor’s degree in three years, or combine work and study. This move is part of Ukraine’s efforts to meet EU criteria for potential membership, with four additional reforms recently fulfilled. The European Commission has proposed a draft framework for membership talks with Ukraine.
Ukraine faces power shortages due to Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure. Kyiv temporarily limited power supply to businesses and industries. Recent Russian strikes have damaged thermal power plants, affecting electricity generation. Nearly 400 settlements experienced power cuts. Restrictions on businesses and industries are implemented from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. local time, excluding critical infrastructure and defense facilities. Emergency aid from neighboring countries is being utilized for the second consecutive day. Ukrenergo urges energy conservation and exploration of alternative power sources.
Ukraine’s grain exports dipped in March, signaling a potential slowdown due to reduced supply and forecasts of a smaller harvest. Despite previous months’ robust exports, reaching 5.2 million metric tons in March, expectations suggest a decline amid depleting stocks and a projected lower harvest. This downturn could impact the country’s hard currency earnings, vital for its economy amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. The decrease in exports is also influenced by global factors such as low wheat prices and a shift in focus towards corn exports. Furthermore, Ukraine’s expected harvest for 2024 is forecasted to be around 74 million metric tons, 10% lower than the previous year, attributed to decreased sown areas and lower yields. This trend, compounded by financial constraints on producers, underscores potential challenges for the Ukrainian economy in the coming years.
Russian forces have launched over 20 missiles at Ukraine’s Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant this year, causing significant damage. The plant was hit with eight missiles on March 22, reducing its capacity by a third. Restoration efforts are underway, but the timeline remains uncertain. Following this attack, other Ukrainian power plants were targeted by Russian forces. The assaults highlight the strain on Ukraine’s air defenses and the ongoing destruction of vital infrastructure.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto criticized Ukraine for targeting Hungarian businesses, threatening to block further EU aid unless such actions cease. This follows Ukraine’s move to designate Hungary’s OTP Bank as a “sponsor of war,” which Hungary protested. Szijjarto cited concerns over Ukraine’s alleged plans to revoke permits for medicine distribution by Hungarian company Richter. Hungary has already blocked 500 million euros in aid and threatens to block a 1.5-billion-euro tranche. Discussions on minority issues between Ukraine and Hungary are ongoing.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine has halted new consular support applications for men aged 18 to 60 abroad, except for emergencies, due to updates needed in line with a new law on mobilization. The suspension aims to align consular services with the law’s requirements and does not affect emergency situations. The move follows the recent passage of a mobilization bill amid Ukraine’s efforts to bolster its armed forces amidst a manpower shortage. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba criticized men of conscription age who left the country during the war, emphasizing citizens’ duties during wartime. Further clarifications on consular service procedures for conscription-age men are expected soon.
Ukraine’s Allies
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has committed the country’s largest military aid package to Ukraine, totaling 500 million pounds. This includes over 400 vehicles, millions of rounds of ammunition, 60 boats, and advanced air defense systems. Sunak also outlined a significant increase in the UK’s defense budget, aiming to reach 2.5% of GDP by 2030, positioning the UK to better respond to global threats from nations like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China.
Copenhagen pledges approximately 420 million euros ($450 million) to Kyiv for long-term cooperation and reconstruction efforts. This includes 40 million euros ($43 million) for private sector support and 380 million euros ($407 million) for critical infrastructure, focusing on renewable energy. The funds will be managed by Denmark’s Export and Investment Fund to mitigate financial risks. Denmark also commits to strengthening cooperation in shipbuilding and seaport infrastructure development. President Zelensky seeks additional air defense systems for Mykolaiv Oblast, with Copenhagen prioritizing reconstruction efforts in the region. Denmark ranks as the fourth largest provider of military aid to Ukraine.
Greece is reportedly preparing to provide Ukraine with at least one Patriot air defense system, possibly two, according to Pronews. The decision comes after European leaders pressured Greece and Spain to donate air defense systems to Ukraine at a recent summit. The U.S. has given assurances and guarantees regarding the provision and maintenance of the Patriot systems, amid ongoing Russian strikes in Ukraine. Greece has committed 185 million euros ($197 million) in aid to Ukraine as of February 2024, as per the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Germany is urging the U.S. to send another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine amidst increased Russian attacks.
The U.S. Senate recently passed a substantial $60.84 billion aid package for Ukraine, which President Joe Biden is poised to sign promptly. This move aims to quickly deliver military aid including air defenses and long-range weapons to Ukraine, amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia. The aid bill, which also allocates funds to address security concerns in the Indo-Pacific region and support for Israel, was initially delayed due to disagreements in Congress, particularly concerning U.S. domestic issues like border security. However, the approval reflects a strong bipartisan commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression and reinforces the U.S.’s strategic security interests globally.
The Pentagon is preparing a substantial military aid package for Ukraine that includes urgently needed artillery, air defenses, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and other equipment. This package, described as “larger-than-normal,” aims to address Ukraine’s immediate battlefield and air defense needs. It is notably larger than a previous $300 million package assembled in March from savings on earlier contracts. Additionally, the U.S. is considering sending up to 60 military advisors to Kyiv in non-combat roles to assist with the weapons transfers and support Ukrainian government operations. The U.S. plans a $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine, per Reuters on April 23, following the House’s approval of a $60 billion assistance bill. Senate voting is expected on April 23. President Biden intends to sign upon approval. This new aid, first under the pending bill, includes vehicles, air defense, and anti-tank munitions. Some supplies are reportedly in Germany and Poland for faster deployment. Delays in aid have impacted Ukraine’s defense, with concerns raised over potential losses without U.S. support. President Zelensky sees American aid crucial for Ukraine’s chances in the conflict.
Some U.S. military aid for Ukraine is already in storage facilities in Germany and Poland, as reported by CNN, citing a source familiar with the matter. The aid includes artillery shells and aims to expedite delivery to the front line. Although American officials have not openly confirmed the aid’s European positioning, hints from U.S. politicians suggest imminent delivery. President Joe Biden plans to sign the aid bill swiftly.
Ukraine seeks joint production of Patriot air defense systems with the U.S. to bolster defense against Russian attacks, Ambassador Oksana Markarova stated. With Russian assaults intensifying, Ukraine faces an urgent need for air defense. President Zelensky emphasizes the necessity of 25 Patriots, while Foreign Minister Kuleba focuses on securing seven initially. Discussions during Zelensky’s U.S. visits highlighted joint Patriot production. Ukrainian and U.S. businesses have begun talks on investment and collaboration. A December 2023 statement of intent aims to facilitate joint defense production, including construction of facilities in Ukraine for arms supply and maintenance.
The U.S. is drafting sanctions that could sever ties between some Chinese banks and the global financial system, aiming to pressure China to stop supporting Russia’s military. Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to address this during his visit to China. China’s alleged aid to Russia includes machine tools, weapons tech, and semiconductors. The move aims to prevent further escalation in U.S.-China relations. Blinken has previously warned China against aiding Russia and urged it to help end the war in Ukraine.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russia is actively integrating occupied Ukrainian regions into its economic system. Since establishing a “free economic zone” (FEZ) in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia in June 2023, which offers tax and insurance benefits from January 2024, over 37 enterprises in Donetsk have been forcibly nationalized to be part of this zone. The Ukrainian Resistance Center claims that Russia is extracting funds from these businesses, leading to price hikes across these areas. Additionally, the Zaporizhia Iron Ore Plant has joined the FEZ, receiving significant investment and financial benefits aimed at enhancing Russian control over its operations and resources.
Russian occupation authorities are offering incentives to attract Russian professionals to fill job vacancies in occupied Ukraine. With a notable shortage of skilled workers such as doctors, teachers, and engineers due to population outflows and local reluctance to collaborate with Russian administrations, salaries are being offered at rates higher than those in Russia to entice workers. Significant vacancies exist across various sectors, with thousands of jobs listed in regions like Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. Additionally, there is an effort to change the demographic makeup of these areas by replacing local Ukrainians with Russian settlers, potentially affecting the cultural and ethnic landscape of occupied Ukraine. Migrant workers from Central Asia, attracted by high salaries, reportedly face discrimination and xenophobia, complicating the social dynamics in these regions.
Time magazine reports significant persecution of religious minorities, particularly Evangelical communities, by Russian forces in occupied Ukraine. Ukrainian Protestants are heavily affected, with 34% of all religious persecution cases involving them, nearly half of which occurred in Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian Baptists also face persecution, comprising 13% of the cases. This reflects broader patterns of systemic repression of both Orthodox and Protestant communities across southern Ukraine.
Russia News
Ukrainian drone strikes and recent flooding have reduced Russia’s oil refining to its lowest in 11 months, with a slight daily decrease to 5.22 million barrels. The attacks have particularly impacted refineries previously targeted, reducing their output by 280,000 barrels per day. Additionally, flooding in the Orenburg region temporarily halted operations at the Orsk oil refinery, though it has since resumed. This reduction in capacity has led Russia to import fuel from neighboring countries to prevent domestic shortages, despite the overall impact on global markets being minimal. Russian officials suggest that continued disruptions could lead to more crude oil exports due to decreased refining capabilities.
Russia has intensified its internet censorship efforts by blocking 150 VPN services, according to Roskomnadzor, the federal censor. This move, announced at the Safer Internet Forum in Moscow, aims to prevent Russians from accessing censored content and bypassing government restrictions. Additionally, since March 1, Roskomnadzor has shut down about 700 websites advertising VPNs and 200,000 sites spreading information deemed false about Russia’s actions in Ukraine. This crackdown reflects a broader strategy to control the flow of information within the country.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian military bloggers are increasingly vocal about the inadequacies of Russian drones in combat. They report that Ukrainian drones are disrupting Russian operations near Krynky in Kherson Oblast and in Zaporizhia, with Russian drones frequently failing to reach their targets due to Ukrainian electronic warfare. Complaints also highlight a lack of reporting channels for these issues within the Russian military hierarchy, and a monopoly on drone production is limiting the variety of models available to Russian forces, further hindering their effectiveness. The State Transport Leasing Company has been designated as the sole supplier of drones for government contracts through the next year, exacerbating concerns about the lack of drone diversity.
Leaked documents suggest that Russian agricultural companies RusAgro and AssistAgro, linked to oligarch Vadim Moshkovich, are covertly involved in producing drones for the Russian military. These companies are officially registered as agricultural enterprises.
Sergei Druzin, Deputy General Director of the Russian Almaz-Antey Corporation, stated that their specialists can modify algorithms for anti-aircraft missile systems on-site to enhance their counter-drone capabilities.
Russia’s Allies
Chechnya is seeking stronger ties with Iran, highlighted by a recent meeting between Chechen and Iranian security officials. This interaction is part of broader efforts to enhance security cooperation and cultural connections, including discussions on initiating direct flights to boost economic and cultural exchanges between Chechnya and Iran. These moves aim to strengthen regional influence and collaboration.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has framed Russia’s military build-up and reforms as defensive actions in response to alleged threats from NATO and its members, including the U.S. This narrative positions Russia as a victim responding to Western aggression. The reforms include the development of new military districts in Moscow and Leningrad and the expansion of military forces along the borders with Finland. These moves come amid tensions over Sweden and Finland’s interest in joining NATO, which Russia views as escalatory. The Kremlin consistently uses this rhetoric to justify its military expansion, portraying its actions as necessary for national defense while accusing NATO of hostility.
Russian officials and military bloggers are downplaying the potential impact of U.S. aid to Ukraine, suggesting that it won’t significantly affect the ongoing conflict. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Western weapons have proven inferior to Russian arms and that Ukrainian forces have not succeeded on the battlefield despite the aid. Other Russian voices echo this sentiment, asserting that Russian military capabilities can effectively counter U.S. supplied weapons.
Kremlin officials are actively discouraging Western nations from taking actions against Russia, particularly concerning the seizure of frozen Russian assets. Valentina Matvienko , Speaker of the Russian Federation Council, stated that Russia is prepared to respond to such moves and argued that the Western economies would suffer more from these actions than Russia’s economy would.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com