Summary of the day: Russian forces achieved a tactical advance northwest of Avdiivka near Arkhanhelske, likely exploiting a Ukrainian withdrawal from the area. Additional advances were reported near Donetsk City and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is intensifying efforts to centralize control over Donetsk People’s Republic’s irregular forces and continues to misrepresent its war against Ukraine. On the domestic front, Russian law enforcement searched homes of supporters of the imprisoned ultranationalist Igor Girkin in Tula Oblast, possibly setting the stage to ban his movement within Russia.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto confirmed that Italy will not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a stance against direct military intervention as outlined by Italian law, which allows armed intervention only under an international mandate. This statement, published in Corriere della Sera, contrasts with French President Emmanuel Macron’s openness to sending Western troops under specific conditions, such as a Russian breakthrough or at Ukraine’s request. Macron’s comments have sparked debate among NATO allies, with many, including Germany and the U.S., opposing the deployment of troops to Ukraine. Meanwhile, some nations like Estonia and the Czech Republic suggest that non-combat deployment should not be entirely dismissed. Ukraine has not requested troops but has asked for increased arms supplies.
The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to enforce Russian federal laws in sovereign European and post-Soviet states, including placing officials from NATO countries like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania on Russia’s wanted list. This action, which accuses these officials of violating Russian laws within NATO territories, is part of Russia’s broader strategy to justify potential future aggressions against NATO states.
Russian officials are criticizing Moldova’s independence and alignment with the West. Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry accused Moldova of being controlled by the West and following Ukraine’s footsteps. She also stated that the Moldovan government views itself as Romanian, allegedly leading to the repression of Moldovan citizens. Recent observations suggest that Russia may increase hybrid operations against Moldova.
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili’s criticized the ruling Georgian Dream party for being overly conciliatory to Russia, in a recent interview with Deutsche Welle. She referred to a contentious law proposed by Georgian Dream that mirrors Russian legislation targeting critics of the Kremlin. This law, set for a final vote on May 17, would label organizations receiving foreign funding as “foreign agents” and has incited significant protests and violent responses from police in Georgia. The situation has also drawn criticism from Western leaders and the European Union, with EU officials warning that passing the law could damage Georgia’s prospects of joining the EU. Meanwhile, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has defended the law, asserting it is essential for national depolarization, despite facing opposition at home and abroad.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian Su-25 aircraft in Donetsk Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that their forces intercepted four Ukrainian ATACMS missile strikes over Crimea.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces launched ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. Despite claims by Russian military units of seizing Kotlyarivka southeast of Kupyansk, there is no visual confirmation of this. Positional battles are ongoing in several areas around Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna, indicating a continued but static conflict in these regions.
There were no significant changes along the Siversk front northeast of Bakhmut, despite continued positional engagements. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Rozdolivka, southwest of Siversk.
Fighting continued near Chasiv Yar without confirmed changes in front lines. Russian forces reportedly made attempts between Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Ukrainian defenses around Hryhorivka and Kalynivka are effectively hindering Russian advances north of Chasiv Yar. Russian strategies include attempts to bypass and directly attack Chasiv Yar, with significant Russian troop movements noted in the area. Ukrainian forces remain engaged in defensive and counterattack operations across multiple sectors around Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces captured Arkhanhelske, northwest of Avdiivka, following a Ukrainian withdrawal from the area. They also made additional advances in the region. These moves come as Russia tries to benefit from the time before increased Western military aid reaches Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Kremlin continues to centralize control over forces in Donetsk and falsely portrays its actions in Ukraine. Russian law enforcement also targeted supporters of an imprisoned ultranationalist in Tula Oblast. Russian forces are intensifying their military efforts northwest of Avdiivka, deploying a division’s worth of troops—including units from the Central Military District—to potentially exploit tactical gains. Their strategic objectives remain unclear, with possibilities including advancing north toward Toretsk or shifting focus towards Pokrovsk. The situation continues to develop as they bring additional forces to the area.
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Avdiivka, specifically to the west and southwest, but there were no confirmed changes in the frontline. Claims by Russian milbloggers of advances in Nevelske, Netaylove, and south of Pervomaiske, as well as northwest near Berdychi and Semenivka, and west near Umanske, have not been visually confirmed.
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Donetsk City, specifically west and southwest of the city. Geolocated footage shows Russian gains at a brick factory in central Krasnohorivka and areas west and southwest of Novomykhailivka. Although claims of further advances in Heorhiivka were made, they lack visual confirmation. Fighting continues between Russian and Ukrainian forces in these areas, including near Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Novomykhailivka.
Russian forces made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, notably in central Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka. Continued positional engagements occurred near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka. Additionally, Russian forces reportedly struck a bridge over the Mokri Yaly River in Velyka Novosilka using an air-to-surface missile.
Russian forces carried out unsuccessful mechanized assaults near Vuhledar, resulting in significant losses of at least 32 armored vehicles, as reported by a Ukrainian OSINT account. The damaged equipment, including newly used “turtle tanks” designed to shield against Ukrainian drone strikes, indicates ongoing struggles for Russian units in the area. Fresh vehicle tracks and green grass suggest the photos of the wreckage are recent, highlighting persistent Russian difficulties in this sector.
Russian forces continued their assaults on Ukrainian positions in Robotyne and nearby areas without changing the frontline. Ukrainian spokesperson Kostyantyn Denysov described Russian gains in the Zaporizhia Oblast as minimal and disproportionate to the efforts expended. Recent weeks have seen a decrease in the intensity of Russian attacks in western Zaporizhia. Challenges in securing positions due to damaged infrastructure were noted, with calls for more electronic warfare systems to counter Ukrainian drones.
Positional engagements persisted along the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky and on Nestryha Island in the Dnipro River Delta. Ukrainian spokesperson Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk emphasized the strategic importance of Nestryha Island, noting it as the last close to shore and pointing out that any Russian attempt to cross the Dnipro River would expose them to Ukrainian fire. Russian and Ukrainian forces are reportedly intensifying their operations in the Dnipro River Delta islands, where Russian forces face challenges with mobile electronic warfare systems and personnel evacuations.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS:0 INJURIES: 15
- A Russian missile strike on Kharkiv injured six people. The missile hit a civilian enterprise in the Industrial district, causing a nearby home to catch fire. The victims, all employees of the enterprise, include four women and two men, all in their early to late 30s. The attack occurred before an air raid alert, indicating the use of a ballistic missile. A significant smoke cloud was observed over the city following the explosion.
- A Russian missile attack on the Odesa district injured three people and damaged civilian infrastructure. The injured include two women, who were hospitalized, and a man, who received on-site medical aid. Emergency services are currently active at the site of the attack.
- Russia carried out a drone attack on Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in fires in eight residential homes and injuries to six people. The attack occurred around 1 a.m. local time, with explosions causing debris to set fire to private homes in the Osnoviansky district. A 60-year-old man was reported injured. The attack also led to the destruction of garages, vehicles, and utility buildings.
- Russian forces launched 214 attacks across 41 separate incidents in Sumy Oblast on May 4, targeting 13 communities including Khotin, Yunakivka, and Myropillia. The assaults involved mortar, artillery, drone, rocket, and grenade launcher fire, with drones also dropping explosives on two communities. Despite the extensive attacks, no casualties or injuries were reported in the region.
The aftermath of Russian attack on Kharkiv
Ukraine News
Russian forces executed a series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported that 13 Shahed drones and four S-300 missiles were launched from Belgorod Oblast, with Ukrainian defenses successfully intercepting all drones over Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Debris from these drones caused significant damage in both regions, including injuries to civilians and damage to infrastructure. Additionally, Ukrainian forces downed a Kh-59/69 missile over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and reported damages from a Russian cruise missile strike in Kirovohrad Oblast, impacting residential areas and a gas pipeline. A separate missile strike in Odesa Oblast also resulted in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The Ukrainian Air Force noted a strategic shift by Russia towards using more ballistic and guided missiles, reducing the frequency of drone strikes. This change is part of a broader strategy to accumulate weapons for significant upcoming dates such as Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian intelligence has observed increased reconnaissance activities and reports an escalated threat from Iskander-M missiles launched from Crimea, citing their proximity and rapid strike capability.
Russia News
Russian law enforcement searched the homes of supporters of the imprisoned ultranationalist Igor Girkin in Tula Oblast. This action appears to be part of an effort to discredit and possibly ban Girkin’s movement by linking it to the pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps, which Russia has labeled a terrorist organization. During the searches, officials detained and later released an individual named Alexander Omelchenko, also confiscating his phone. This crackdown aligns with broader actions against groups opposed to Russian policy.
A Russian court sentenced Ukrainian POW Vladyslav Plahotnyk to 18 years in a maximum-security penal colony for his involvement with the Azov battalion, designated by Russia as a terrorist group. This trial, held in Rostov-on-Don, follows similar cases, including last month’s 20-year sentence of Dmytro Yevhan, another Ukrainian servicemember. Ukraine is actively seeking a comprehensive prisoner exchange, proposing an all-for-all swap at the upcoming Peace Summit in Switzerland. President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed frustration at the slow pace of current exchanges.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Kremlin is tightening control over Donetsk’s irregular forces, integrating local commanders and officials. Recently, President Vladimir Putin named Alexei Dikiy, the commander of the disbanded “Kaskad” tactical group, a Hero of Russia, likely to ensure his loyalty after the group’s dissolution.
Russian forces are facing challenges in Bakhmut due to a shortage of first-person vision drones. A military blogger reported that a motorized rifle brigade in the area has only 15 drones, leading to operational difficulties.
Russia’s Allies
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that former Wagner servicemen are currently training members of the Belarusian 120th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade at a training site in Belarus.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
The Kremlin is continuing its efforts to misrepresent its war against Ukraine and assert Russian law over independent states. Recently, Russian authorities placed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders on their wanted list, without specifying their alleged crimes. This move, critiqued as propaganda by Ukraine, likely aims to undermine Zelensky’s international travels and discredit Ukraine’s pro-Western leadership. These actions are part of Russia’s broader strategy to manipulate public perception and isolate Ukraine diplomatically.
A Brookings Institution report indicates that Kremlin-linked actors are increasingly using TikTok to spread propaganda more effectively than on other platforms. Valerie Wirtschafter of the Brookings Institution noted that these TikTok videos garner significantly higher engagement, specifically 3.5 times more than on Telegram and 20 times more than on X (formerly Twitter). The content often targets divisive issues in U.S. politics, with Spanish-language posts being particularly influential.
The Kremlin is setting the stage to increase repression of journalists and NGOs, accusing them of trying to undermine President Putin’s upcoming inauguration. A Russian parliamentary commission reported that Western-funded journalists and NGOs are spreading anti-Russian material. This claim is part of an effort to present a unified support for Putin and to discredit opposition, potentially leading to further detentions of journalists associated with Western media.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com