Summary of the day: Ukraine destroyed the Russian Project 22160 Sergei Kotov patrol ship off the coast of the Kerch Strait, prompting criticism from Russian milbloggers over the military’s lack of response. Despite reports of Ukrainian downing of bomber aircraft, Russian forces continue glide bomb strikes in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for two Russian commanders for war crimes, and Russia and China are enhancing strategic space cooperation, while Russia engages in hybrid operations in Moldova and advances near Donetsk City.
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Situation On The Ground And Air
Despite Ukrainian claims of downing bomber aircraft, Russian Su-34 aircraft continue to conduct numerous glide bomb strikes in Ukraine, aiding recent advances in eastern Ukraine. Reports suggest a shift in Russian tactics towards intensified air operations, possibly due to perceived benefits outweighing risks. Ukrainian forces now use French-provided AASM Hammer glide bombs after the halt in US aid provisions.
Russian forces are allegedly involved in a “black market” selling Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), with Chechen paramilitary groups reportedly purchasing POWs for exchange with Ukrainian forces. This practice may violate international agreements despite not explicitly prohibited by the Geneva Convention. Chechen units, largely in non-combat roles, resort to this market due to limited opportunities for POW exchange. This suggests a segment of Russian military not included in official POW exchanges with Ukraine.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Positional fighting persisted along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with no frontline changes reported. Fighting occurred in various areas, including near Synkivka, Tabaivka, Terny, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka.
Positional fighting persisted near Bakhmut, with engagements reported northwest, west, and southwest of the city. Russian forces were reportedly active in clearing positions in eastern Ivanivske and targeting Ukrainian positions near Chasiv Yar with airstrikes.
Russian forces continued attacks near Avdiivka without confirmed advances. Fighting occurred in various areas around Avdiivka, with claims of Russian captures by milbloggers unverified by independent sources. Russian airstrikes intensified, while Ukrainian forces fortified positions with natural terrain features and constructed defenses.
Russian forces advanced southwest of Donetsk City, as confirmed by recent geolocated footage. Positional battles continued west and southwest of Donetsk City, with Russian artillery and tank units reportedly active in the area.
Positional fighting persisted along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, with no frontline changes reported. Engagements occurred south, southeast, and southwest of Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces allegedly struck Zorya, and Russian units were active in various areas, including Hulyaipole and Staromayorske. Russian airstrikes were reported in the Vremivka salient.
Russian forces maintained offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no reported frontline changes. Fighting centered around Robotyne, with Ukrainian forces deploying reserves and conducting counterattacks.
Limited fighting continued on the east bank of Kherson Oblast, with reports of Ukrainian forces using French-provided AASM Hammer glide bombs against Russian positions in Kozachi Laheri. Russian milbloggers warned of Ukrainian strengthening near the Dnipro River, while Russian sources claimed a Ukrainian drone strike on a substation in Russian-occupied Kakhovka.
Human Costs Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of three people and injuries to three others:
- Russian forces shelled Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast, killing a 72-year-old man.
- Russian troops attacked Kurylivka village in Kupyansk district, Kharkiv Oblast, killing a 67-year-old woman. Additionally, a 55-year-old woman injured in a previous Russian attack in Chorne village on Feb. 15 has died in the hospital.
- Russian strikes hit residential areas of Kherson injuring an elderly man with shrapnel wounds. Another woman was rescued from her house and hospitalized for examination. The attacks damaged approximately 18 houses, eight apartment buildings, administrative buildings, a gas station, and warehouses in Kherson Oblast over the past day.
- Russian forces carried out 21 strikes on several settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, damaging at least 10 houses and injuring a 49-year-old emergency medical care center driver.
A screenshot of a video showing the aftermath of Russia’s attack on Kherson
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that 1070 Russian force casualties were recorded in the previous day alone.
Ukraine News
The Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov was destroyed by Ukrainian naval drones, resulting in casualties and significant damage. According to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, seven Russian sailors died and six were injured in the incident. Additionally, a conversation intercepted by Ukrainian military intelligence revealed that the ship had a helicopter on board. Ukrainska Pravda reported the destruction of a Russian Ka-29 helicopter along with the vessel. Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk also mentioned the possibility of a helicopter being onboard. Andrii Yusov from Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed casualties and mentioned plans to place an anti-aircraft missile system on the vessel.
Ukrainian Air Force reports 22 drones launched by Russian forces from occupied Balaklava, Crimea, with 18 shot down over Odesa Oblast. Additionally, Ukrainian forces downed a Kh-59 missile over Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian sources allege the strike targeted port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.
The parliament’s Humanitarian and Information Policy Committee supported a bill to potentially ban the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) in the Verkhovna Rada’s second reading. The bill aims to stop religious organizations from promoting war propaganda or justifying the Russian invasion. The final vote is pending after passing the first reading in October 2023. The bill outlines a process for terminating the activities of affiliated organizations, including analysis, legal orders, and court injunctions. Such organizations would lose access to state property, and transitioning to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine would become easier. The UOC-MP has faced accusations of aligning with the Russian government during the conflict, leading to law enforcement actions and charges against its leaders. Most Ukrainians support banning the UOC-MP, according to a survey conducted in June 2023.
Ukraine’s High Anti-Corruption Court approved the Justice Ministry’s claim to seize assets belonging to Russian media figure Dmitry Kiselyov. Kiselyov, known for supporting Russian actions in Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk, had assets including a mansion in Crimea, land, a car, and stakes in companies confiscated. Ukraine imposed sanctions on Kiselyov in 2023, freezing his assets. The Justice Ministry requested asset confiscation in February. Since 2022, Ukraine’s Security Service has been investigating Kiselyov and another media figure for actions against Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Kiselyov previously worked for Ukrainian TV channel ICTV in the early 2000s.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested a resident of Zaporizhzhia for plotting a bomb attack on a post office with Russian intelligence. The suspect planned to use homemade explosives hidden in a fruit box. Russia aimed to cause civilian casualties and panic in the city. The suspect also allegedly provided military information to Russia. Recruited by Russia’s military intelligence in 2023, he received instructions and money for the attack. Charged with treason and terrorism, he faces life imprisonment.
Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office charged two Russian military personnel with shooting and killing a civilian in Bucha, Kyiv Oblast, in 2022. The incident occurred during the occupation of Bucha by Russian troops. The victim, an unarmed civilian, was shot without warning by the soldiers, according to prosecutors. The soldiers are accused of murder and violating laws of war. It’s unknown if they are in custody or have been served the charges in absentia.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine aims to produce two million drones by the year-end, with the current capacity to produce 150,000 drones monthly, according to Strategic Industries Deputy Minister Hanna Hvozdiar. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed Ukraine’s progress in domestic drone production, surpassing the one million mark. Hvozdiar highlighted the potential for increased production capacity with additional funding. Over 200 Ukrainian companies are involved in drone development, with nearly 60 receiving government orders. Plans include developing domestic drone component production. Zelensky established a dedicated branch in Ukraine’s Armed Forces for drones. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg mentioned plans for supplying Kyiv with one million drones in 2024, alongside Ukraine’s domestic production efforts.
Ukraine’s Allies
French President Emmanuel Macron visited Prague to discuss plans for purchasing ammunition for Ukraine outside of Europe with Czech leaders. The initiative aims to address critical shortages faced by Kyiv due to stalled U.S. assistance. Prague has found shells abroad and seeks financing from other partners. Macron expressed support for the plan, with a decisive commitment expected soon. Shortages have impacted Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, leading to losses on the eastern front.
Lithuania will join the Czech-led initiative to supply Ukraine with artillery rounds from outside Europe, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte confirmed after a call with her Czech counterpart. The initiative aims to address critical ammunition shortages in Ukraine, with support from other countries like Canada, Denmark, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The first shipment could arrive within weeks, according to Bloomberg.
France has organized a video call on March 7 with officials from Ukraine’s key allies and NATO to strengthen support for Ukraine. This comes after French President Emmanuel Macron’s remarks about the possibility of Western troops in Ukraine sparked controversy. The meeting will focus on accelerating the delivery of key military capabilities and exploring various support options for Ukraine, such as cyber defense and demining. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will also participate. France previously pledged 3 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine this year.
The European Commission introduced the European Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) to enhance the EU’s defense industry competitiveness and readiness. It addresses concerns about reliance on the U.S. and aims to fulfill commitments to Ukraine. The strategy includes legislative proposals and a 1.5-billion-euro ($1.6 billion) budget for the European Defense Industry Program (EDIP) to boost industry competitiveness. Closer ties with Ukraine are proposed, and EU member states are encouraged to increase joint defense equipment purchases and intra-European defense trade. The European Parliament has urged support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius revealed that a high-ranking military call was leaked due to an “individual error” where one officer joined from abroad via an insecure line. The leaked conversation, discussing missile deliveries to Ukraine, was published by a Kremlin-controlled TV channel editor. Pistorius attributed the breach to lax adherence to secure dial-in procedures, exacerbated by wiretapping operations during an aviation trade fair in Singapore. He termed it a “serious mistake” and vowed preventive measures. Pistorius refrained from individual penalties, denouncing it as a ploy by Russian President Putin.
Lithuanian farmers highlighted concerns about the influx of Russian grain, not Ukrainian crops, impacting EU markets, as reported by Lithuanian National Radio. Polish protests against Ukrainian agricultural imports stemmed from claims of unfair competition. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal denied allegations of Ukrainian grain entering Poland. Lithuanian farmers emphasized the significant volume of Russian grain entering the EU, driving down prices and potentially destabilizing markets. Latvia temporarily banned grain imports from Russia and Belarus, while Poland plans to seek EU sanctions on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products.
An Estonian arms dealer allegedly sold laser target markers to the Ukrainian military at inflated prices, resulting in millions of euros in profit. The investigation implicated Ants Poldsam and German national Haiko Dehnen. Poldsam brokered the sale of 20 laser target markers to Ukraine, financed by Germany, at a cost much higher than market price. The German Defense Ministry confirmed taxpayer funding for the purchase. The transaction occurred in 2023, with Estonian customs valuing the goods at market price. Poldsam and Dehnen reportedly profited significantly from the deal, with Dehnen receiving a substantial fee for advisory services.
Czech President Petr Pavel expressed support for exploring new ways to assist Ukraine, including the potential deployment of troops for “non-combat engagement.” This follows French President Macron’s remark about the possibility of Western troop deployment, which was met with skepticism from the U.S. and European allies. Pavel clarified that he was not advocating sending combat units but suggested a training mission. However, NATO Secretary-General and leaders of several European countries ruled out sending troops to Ukraine. Russian President Putin warned of “tragic consequences” if NATO intervened in Ukraine.
The U.S. won’t deploy troops to Ukraine, per National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby. President Zelensky hasn’t requested ground troops, just tools and capabilities. Kirby urges Congress to pass $61 billion in military aid stalled in legislation. Macron’s troop comments drew Western backlash; European leaders reject sending troops to Ukraine.
Turkey’s Dortyol oil terminal in the Mediterranean Sea has stopped trading with Russia due to increased pressure from U.S. sanctions. Following global sanctions on Russian oil trade after the Ukraine invasion, Russia shifted its focus to other markets, including Turkey. Global Terminal Services, the operator of Dortyol terminal, announced it would no longer accept Russian oil products, despite no breach of laws. The move comes as part of efforts to tighten sanctions on Russian oil trade, including a $60-per-barrel price cap imposed by the Group of Seven (G7).
The U.S. State Department plans to impose new sanctions on Russian entities and individuals involved in arms trade with North Korea and Iran, under the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act. Sanctions target the Wagner Group, Pavel Shevelin, LLC Eltekhnord, Russian Aerospace Forces, and Rim Yong Hyok from North Korea, along with any affiliated entities. These measures, effective since Feb. 27, will be formally announced on March 6. North Korea’s weapon supplies to Russia have reportedly been used in Ukraine, causing civilian casualties. The U.S. aims to curb such proliferation activities, with recent sanctions following President Biden’s announcement targeting 500 Russian entities.
A U.S. Air Force civilian employee from the U.S. Strategic Command was arrested for allegedly leaking classified information about Russia’s war on Ukraine via an online dating platform. David Franklin Slater, a retired Army Lieutenant Colonel with top-secret clearance, allegedly shared details about military targets and Russian capabilities with someone claiming to be in Ukraine. Slater faces a court appearance in Nebraska and could be sentenced to up to 10 years in prison if convicted.
Life in Russian-Occupied Regions of Ukraine
Russian forces have controlled the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) for over two years, operating it improperly and unsafely. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported over 150 violations of operating procedures during this period. Energoatom highlighted frequent blackouts at the plant, attributing equipment degradation to Russian actions and blocking access to qualified Ukrainian specialists.
Russian law enforcement is increasing pressure on Crimean Tatars in occupied Crimea. Searches were conducted on homes and a mosque, and at least 125 Crimean Tatars have been detained illegally. The FSB carried out searches in Bakhchysaray and Dzhankoi, resulting in arrests of activists and religious figures. Authorities have opened over 100 cases against Crimean Tatars on religious grounds in 2024.
Russian occupation authorities are gearing up for presidential elections in occupied areas of Ukraine. They’ve begun early voting, using various tactics like door-to-door polling and intimidation to inflate turnout. The European Commission condemns this as a violation of international law and won’t recognize the elections.
Russia is trying to influence Ukrainian children by sending them to events like the World Youth Festival and promoting Russian history and civics courses in occupied areas. Critics warn that these efforts are aimed at fostering pro-Russian sentiment among the youth in Ukraine.
Russia News
Russia’s air defenses claimed to have shot down three drones over Belgorod Oblast and one over Kursk Oblast. Roman Starovoit, governor of Kursk Oblast, reported shelling at a railway station in Glushkovo, causing a fire and damaging power lines. Ukrainian officials did not comment. The Russian Defense Ministry stated the drones targeted unspecified “objects” in Kursk Oblast. Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of Belgorod Oblast, declared an “emergency” in the Gubkinsky district due to an explosion and fire at an infrastructure facility. Ukrainian sources claimed responsibility for an attack on Belgorodnefteprodukt oil depot. Russia has seen increased drone strikes in various regions in recent weeks.
The director of Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service, Alexandru Musteata, reported that the Kremlin is conducting multi-year hybrid operations to destabilize Moldova and prevent its accession to the European Union (EU). These operations include interference in Moldovan elections, promotion of pro-Russia policies, and incitement of protests and conflict. Musteata warned of increased anti-EU sentiment spread through social media platforms.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for two senior Russian commanders, marking the first time Russian military leaders have been charged by the ICC. Lieutenant General Sergei Kobylash and Admiral Viktor Sokolov are accused of directing attacks on civilian targets and causing harm to civilians during the period of October 2022 to March 2023. This follows previous ICC warrants related to war crimes in Ukraine issued against Russian officials in 2022.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Unspecified Russian authorities are reportedly disbanding elements of the former Wagner Group intended for Rosgvardia or currently stationed in Belarus. A source indicated the disbandment of a Wagner base in Rostov Oblast due to financial disagreements, leading to personnel dispersal. Wagner’s training of Belarusian forces in Belarus is also slated for disbandment after completion.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu emphasized ongoing military restructuring to prepare for a potential large-scale war with NATO, focusing on strengthening forces in the northwest and west. This includes establishing the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts in response to Finland and Sweden’s potential NATO accession. Analysts believe Russia may use increased military presence on NATO’s eastern flank to heighten threats and weaken the alliance.
Russia has nationalized 180 private companies, including in the defense industrial base, over the past two years. The total assets of these companies amount to about $11.4 billion, targeting various industries such as defense, mechanical engineering, food, fishing, ports, and real estate. The nationalization demands are often based on claims of illegal possession of property or violation of anti-corruption laws.
The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia proposed a bill in the State Duma, suggesting five-year military service deferments for young workers in defense-related industries. This proposal aims to address labor shortages in Russia’s defense industry, intensified by increased defense orders for 2022-2025.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that efforts are underway to strengthen Russia’s defense industry. He mentioned plans by the United Aircraft Corporation to develop the Il-212 military transport aircraft to replace older models like the An-26 and An-72. The new aircraft will have increased capabilities, including improved payload, range, and suitability for Arctic operations. Additionally, the Ural Civil Aviation Factory is working on the serial production of D-18T aircraft engines, set to begin in late 2027.
Russia’s Allies
Russia and China are strengthening their collaboration in space, planning to construct a nuclear power plant on the moon by 2032-2035. This partnership signifies a growing alliance aimed at countering Western influence, as outlined in their space cooperation agreement through 2027. Their joint efforts include the development of a lunar station and the placement of satellite navigation system stations.
Union State and Belarusian officials are discussing cultural integration between Russia and Belarus. Secretary Dmitry Mezentsev suggested creating a shared cultural heritage list akin to UNESCO. Belarusian Ambassador Dmitry Krutoy emphasized regional ties and Belarus’ appeal to Russian tourists.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian sources are accusing Ukraine of religious repression after Ukraine’s Parliament proposed a bill to ban Kremlin-associated religious institutions. The bill targets the Russian Orthodox Church and aims to simplify the transition to the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine. This accusation is part of a broader Russian effort to discredit Ukraine and justify its actions in the region.
Russian officials are using a leaked recording of German military officials discussing missile provision to Ukraine to deter Western aid. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova insulted German officials as part of an information operation against the German government.
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger is portraying Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan as weak and a threat due to Armenia’s distancing from Russia and Russian-led institutions.
Politico reported that Russia’s FSB used Serbian national Novica Antic to spread pro-Kremlin views in EU institutions. Antic allegedly met with European Parliament members and trade union representatives without their knowledge of his FSB ties. He collaborated with Russian national Vyacheslav Kalinin, promoting Russian propaganda on Veteran News. Antic, leader of the Serbian Military Union, was detained last month in Serbia. Serbia, while condemning Russia’s aggression, remains neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This adds to recent security concerns in the European Parliament, following reports of a Latvian MEP’s alleged ties to Russian intelligence.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com